Allegion (NYSE: $ALLE) Prepares for Q4 Earnings: Will It Break?Allegion plc (NYSE: ALLE), a key player in the security hardware industry, is set to announce its Q4 earnings today before the market opens. The stock has gained 1.7% in premarket trading, reflecting cautious optimism from investors. With expectations of a 4.5% year-over-year revenue increase to $937.9 million and adjusted earnings of $1.75 per share, the question remains: will Allegion meet expectations or face another revenue miss?
Steady Growth Amid Mixed Performance
Last quarter, Allegion met revenue expectations, posting $967.1 million in sales, a 5.4% YoY increase. However, the company slightly missed organic revenue estimates despite surpassing full-year EPS projections. Over the last two years, Allegion has fallen short of Wall Street’s revenue expectations three times, adding an element of uncertainty heading into today’s report.
Comparing Allegion to its peers in the electrical systems sector, LSI reported a significant 35.5% revenue surge, beating estimates by 14.3%, while Vertiv grew 25.8%, exceeding expectations by 8.8%. Despite these positive trends, the sector has underperformed recently, with an average stock decline of 4.6% over the past month, and Allegion itself dropping 1.2% in the same period.
The broader market landscape in 2024 has been favorable. The Federal Reserve successfully controlled inflation without triggering a recession, leading to a "soft landing." Additionally, the election of Donald Trump in November 2024 has fueled market momentum. However, electrical systems stocks have lagged, making Allegion’s upcoming earnings report crucial for its near-term trajectory.
Technical Analysis
Currently, ALLE is up 1.95% in Tuesday’s premarket trading. The stock’s RSI stands at 54.83, indicating neutral momentum, while trading volume continues to rise ahead of earnings. If Allegion delivers strong Q4 results, it could break above its one-month high, which currently acts as a resistance zone.
On the downside, a negative earnings report could trigger a retracement toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The direction of ALLE’s movement will largely depend on whether it can surpass investor expectations or confirm concerns about its revenue consistency.
What’s Next for ALLE?
With analysts maintaining stable estimates and market conditions favoring growth stocks, Allegion’s Q4 results will play a key role in determining its short-term price action. A bullish breakout could propel it towards the analyst target of $143.75, while a miss may lead to further downside. Investors should watch today’s earnings closely to gauge the stock’s next major move.
