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Alligator Indicator

Short ETH/BTC due to failed breakoutWe couldn't break 300 and the reason is clear. Volume is low af. If that was leg one of a new wave it was hella weak. Where are all the buyers at? Waiting or shorting. The Eye of Sauron looks down upon us and forces us into the nether worlds of the 200 zone. When we reach that level buyers will rush like mad at those prices. then we get exhausted, but people saw what happened on the first leg and they want in on the party and so we get another drive, etc, etc. It's quite simple. But there are rules to these streets. One cannot simply call an irregular elliott wave retracement a new rally when it is no such thing at all.
Short
by DanRoth
DAX30 - Ready, Set, Go?Dear Traders, there has been happening a lot since my last DAX30 analysis eleven days ago. I have closed my short positions with some profits and kept quite until the beginning of this week, waiting to bring my long trades into the race. If you remember, I revised my initial expectation from 'call' to 'put' as I expected the correction not be finished - or better, it was just about to start. The situation changed a bit which meant the (blue) 4 wasn't complete at this stage and had to be fully developed before we could look at any DAX30 long ideas. The Question Now Is Was this correction enough to complete the (blue) 4? There is a good chance that this is the case as the (Elliot wave) fits perfectly - and so do the indicators. But, there is still enough room for the DAX30 to correct. If you remember, I was initially talking about the area around 11,500. It's A Matter Of Sink Or Swim To put it in a nutshell, the German DAX30 has a perfect chance to take it from here, marching up, direction 13,000. However, if the latest (yellow) 1 gets touched (~ 11,803) the bullish scenario is off the table - for now. Everything above that is perfectly fine. Bottom Line In terms of trading this is a no-brainer. The chance/risk ratio is outstanding, if you are looking for 11,800 as a potential SL and 13,200 for a target. I take the risk and give it a shot. Therefore I have opened a long position in all my public and private accounts. Godspeed!
FX:GER30Long
by Dluginacci
2
WTI CRUDE OIL - It's Just A CorrectionDear traders, the most of us were hoping the oil price would drop forever, well at least those of us who drive a car or have an oil based central heating. But as the commodity market is no exception and no one-way system it had to stop at one point. So it did. The oil price is rising again and the question now is: Was that it? No more cheap fuel at the gas station? The Answer Is No At least not for the next couple of weeks. The price has to recover from its huge drop of the past few months. This massive drop is considered to be a (blue) wave 3 - the longest wave of all five of an impulse. However, as we all know four follows a three and the 4 is a correction move, before the initial (trend) move continues with the final 5. To Make A Long Story Short The current correction can last a few days or even weeks. A sensible target area for the (blue) 4 would be between $60 - $70a barrel. However, the overlying trend is still strong bearish, so it is just a matter of time until the price turns soutwards for the final wave 5. Hence, you will be able to go to the gas station with a smile once again. Information I have opened long positions on WTI Crude Oil on all my public accounts, as well as a Brent Oil long position in my private account. Cheers!
FX:USOILLong
by Dluginacci
1
DAX30 - The Situation Has Changed A BitDear traders, if you follow my analyses and my social media channels regularly you know that I was talking about two scenarios regarding the DAX30 since the (blue) four was seemed to be completed: 1) We stick to the plan and finish the job without any detour. At this stage I was talking about 12,300 as a milestone - which I finally got. I closed all my long positions, waiting for something to happen as it still wasn't enough to be a (blue) 5 but the market seemed to be wobbly on its feet. So I had a few options on the table and thought a stretched (blue) 3 may be one of them - obviously I was wrong but that brings me to my second scenario which is, at this stage, more likely; 2) We take a detour below 12,000 as I mentioned on Facebook a few days ago. Strictly speaking, it can actually take us anywhere between 11,500 and 11,200. Anyway, in this case the (blue) 4 was not complete but is now in the making! This scenario makes total sense and wouldn't even harm the overlying, bullish trend of the DAX30. It's the long overdue correction in a very overheated market. Being Short In A Bullmarket The bottom line is that the market is, overall, still bullish even if we go to the maximum of this correction which would be in the region of 11,200. However, I took my chances and opened a short position yesterday in my Alvanda Mercury Account - and only in this account as this trade is counter-trend and therefore even more risky. My Conclusion This correction does the market more good than bad. My target (for the blue 5) still stands: 13,200. Cheers!
FX:GER30Short
by Dluginacci
6
DAX30 - Where are we at?The last few weeks went like a clockwork. Basically every target zone got hit, every support held and the price action matched perfectly into the overall image of my Analysis. Now, since we have reached an ATH (all-time-high) at ~12.222 the price consolidated - which again - fit perfectly into my Elliot Wave count, as a small correction was overdue. On this note please don't forget that an overheated market is not automatically an occasion to sell! So what do I expect to happen? Basically there are two scenarios from which I think one is more realistic than the other: 1. A-B-C correction is finished In this case the DAX30 will break out of the short-term negative trend (red line) and continue it's ride direction North very soon. From there we, once again, go into a 1-2-3-4-5 count which will probably end at around 12.300/20. As the indicators back this theory I think this is the more likely event to happen. 2. A-B-C is not finished, YET In this scenario we will have to face a lower low which can be projected near to the last 4 (blue 4). A correction of this extent would not harm the still bullish environment in the DAX30. Bottom line I currently have a long position open in most of my accounts, aiming for the 12.300 level.
FX:GER30Long
by Dluginacci
9
Bitcoin forming horizontal triangle? (Elliott Wave Analysis)The best advice I could ever give anyone about the market is to "Want What the Market Wants." Do not want what you want , that will produce anxiety and doubt. Align your personal beliefs with that of the market and then trading will flow like a calm river of success. So that raises the question: What does the market want? On a weekly timeframe, the market has been trending down for some time now, and my indicators are still saying the weekly trend is DOWN. Solidified by the fact that we failed to break the weekly up fractal at 310, which would have changed the weekly trend from DOWN to UP. Bearing in mind the larger trend, we come to the 12H chart: On this chart, I have labeled what I believe to be the most sensible Elliott Wave count that I came up with, which is a bearish horizontal triangle. Here are a couple of reasons why this count makes the most sense to me: Wave A is most likely a three Wave C momentum is relatively weak compared to Wave A Wave A fractal top is still in-tact. Fibonacci Time and Price targets are within normal guidelines for Waves A, B, & C The predictive targets for triangles are relatively hard to develop, however, on my chart I have made an attempt at predicting the end of Wave c of D and wave E. Wave E in particular is very difficult to target, however, once it is completed we will definitely get a major swing down into the 100s or possibly double digits. I have labeled on my chart with green, yellow, and red dashed lines possible major support levels. Which one we will stop at I am uncertain of until we are closer to that point. However, there is a high probability we will stop at or near one of those lines based on Fib extension targets. Once this chart is resolved we could end up getting another one of Bitcoin's famous Moons™ I think this is actually more likely to be the final doom that I mentioned in my first chart. My time-targets for the end of the major cycle degree Wave 4 start around April 20th, that doesn't necessarily mean that is when we are going to begin the major uptrend, but it is likely that once we've gone past that date that bitcoin will be ready for the next major cycle Wave 5, which will happen sometime before the end of the time target in August. My guess is that we start the next Moon™ in June. Important Note: This chart is INVALID if we break 294 and particularly 310.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Intuit
11
DAX Completes Wave Early And Starts ABC CorrectionThe day before yesterday, on Sunday, I have posted my latest analysis about the DAX30 (GER30) index, talking about the current waves 4 and 5 (green) and a possible target at 11.701. The expected wave 4 (green) was pretty much spot on, the wave 5 wasn't really but I managed to detect the early completion before it was too late! Unfortunately the wave has been completed early yesterday with a high at 11.606 which led me to close all existing DAX30 long positions in all my accounts with some profit. So What's Next? It pretty much looks like that the index has started its a-b-c correction, which could easily bring us down to 11.200 (former wave 4). However, I will not trade this correction setup but wait it to be completed and look for new long entries. General speaking the correction actually comes handy and fits into the big picture. The Dow Jones was already struggeling with its high-rising and didn't give the DAX much space to the top. Say what you want but they are 'brothers' and generally head into the same direction. Anyway, I keep my hands still on this one until the correction is finished.
FX:GER30
by Dluginacci
BTC ELLIOT WAVE: BIG PICTURE & COUNTING GUIDEThere's a lot of confusion in Bitcoin right now, but the reality is simple: there was a big Elliot wave downward, and now we're in the corrective phase of that wave. The Elliot wave is not a model or a tool -- it's a psychological phenomenon. It's the product of the behavior of a population of people reacting to an event (or series) and its unfolding. Therefore, it's the way markets move. It's the assertion that markets are moderately predictable because markets are made up of people, and people are predictable. (Events are generally not predictable, however!) It asserts that the market isn't about to move out of step -- an overnight drop to $175 -- unless a major new event occurs. The following chart is by request. It shows the basic wave count of the major move since August from $620~. I've used the tools developed by Bill Williams (New Trading Dimensions, Trading Chaos 1&2) to give a basic demonstration of how to count the wave. His methods and tools are the "training wheels" version of wave counting. The main two tools used are THE ALLIGATOR and the AWESOME OSCILLATOR. TYPO: First five WAVES finished at red-line cross (3 impulse, 2 corrective) BOOKS: The Wave Principle (Frost & Pretcher), Trading Chaos (both editions--which are very different) (Bill Williams), New Trading Dimensions (Bill Williams)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by the_batman
3