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Australia - Watch for a Rally - Then Jump ShipLet's start with the broader picture first I understand the market looks horrific at press time, but the first thing that you must know about markets is this, nothing every goes in one direction forever, no matter how bad it seems. For context here are the three major US stock crashes. 2008 Crash 2000 Tech wreck 1929 Great Depression The second thing that you must know is that a market will TYPICALLY, not always, but typically will retrace 50% of the first wave before continuing lower, as seen in the above charts. In the most recent price action, this would entail a bounce to around 5400-5900, this is a prime opportunity to lighten exposure and prepare for another leg lower. Now, we may not get a bounce to the 50% fib level, but a move to the 38.2% is highly likely, at this point i would begin to lighten exposure and begin to buy shorting instruments, i.e. Puts. Now, where do i see the potential low? If the prior crashes throughout history are any gauge, then a top to bottom move of 50% is very likely, with the 1929 crash closer to 90%, i expect at worst we could see a middle ground, call it around 70%. This would be heavily dependent on Covid19 being far worse than governments are expecting, and a extended period of lock-down, which at press time, must not be discounted. That being said, the first targets are a "typical" 50% move from the peak, as you can see, this would erase ALL gains from the past 20 years, taking the index back to levels first reached in 2001. The third thing you must know about markets is that they go up in the long-term, emphasis on LONG-TERM. After the 2007 peak, it took over 4,300 DAYS to retread those levels. Do you have 12 years to wait? Bear in mind also, this index is not inflation adjusted, if one inflation adjusts the index we never made new highs, in other words, it has been over 13 years and we are yet to make new highs. What about Real Estate? I have long maintained the Australian real estate market is a bubble, ready to burst, with valuations in some areas exceeding over 10:1 income to Value ratios (IVR), this was inevitable and the bubble appears to be finally bursting, so no, your equity in your house will not save you. In fact, real estate priced in gold, is breaking out of a decade long slumber, what this means is that your home may gain nominal value, as governments feebly attempt to print enough money to cover the cracks, but your home will in reality be hemorrhaging real purchasing power. Welcome to the word of relative values, where your house can both go up AND down in value, simultaneously. In short, Australia has a weak economy, i have not even touched on the consumers and households overburdened with debt, the over reliance on the services industry as a primary source of GDP or the super fragile banking system, which by the way, have a huge number of "interest only loans" switching to principle and interest, over the next 18 months. Hmmm... wonder how the general households will deal with those. -TradingEdge Interest only loans: www.rba.gov.au
ASX:XAOShort
by Profit_Link
3
Bearish Divergence - Not ideal leading into Reporting SeasonWe have potential reversal (Bearish divergence) in the all ords. Just as we enter the reporting season. (Financials + Materials make up close to 50% of index) Materials have already turned bearish and with banks to report soon for the first time since the royal commission findings it looks like we are headed lower. I'm thinking we might have better opportunities to buy in later this year especially for super funds with longer hold times.
ASX:XAO
by rutt
XAO. Has all ords run its course?I have sold off all capital and moved to BBOZ 2x Leveraged SHORT TMF. high risk but i live for the biscuit!! massive amount of bearish div. across multiple time frames on RSI large long term distribution pattern (megaphone or expanding / diverging wedge) new ATH on index fractalised bearish patterns. parabolic year to date, floundering and failing housing market, unemployment on the up. Government ran projects at massive high levels (search Keynesian economy vs Simple economy), companies buying back shares across the board (this is my opinion is bad because it shows a lack of sentiment in short to mid term growth ie money not reinvested in staffing, equipment and growth but funneled back to company execs) inverted yield curve over seas, tension between CHINA and USA (trade war) (ref. hang seng HSI and view Australia's economic dependence on China's growth) well over extended period between recessions locally and a historically bullish, parabolic and over bought real estate market has caused Australia to fuel a service and construction boom leaving alot of people with out jobs if things go bad. No jobs + over extended and over inflated property market = mass forced sell offs... The bad times have just began. (IMO) these are a few of my reasons to be mid term hyper bearish do what you want DEFINITELY DO NOT TAKE MY WORD AS GOSPEL ON THIS ONE DYOR!!! good luck stay safe squirrel funds and DYOR oh btw DYOR not financial advisor, hard core day trader, chart analyst and punter!
ASX:XAOShort
by tradingtradefortading
Z1P take profit!In my humble opinion we have entered a parabolic section on Z1P. looking at exiting at $1.535 for a few reason with a pull back to the 61.8% level! Bump run on the longer term and on the intraday right now which is giving us a good exit signal, including MASSIVE BEAR DIV. on the RSI All of these signals make it to tantalizing to pass up! looking at an take profit exit and then a swing down entry for 1 last long! Stay Vigilant Good luck & happy trading homies! DYOR!
ASX:ZIPShort
by tradingtradefortading
8
quick long oppurtunity. XJO AUSTRALIAN ALL ORDSI'm famously and very publicly BEARISH on most markets at this time how ever this top i believe will broaden, in the mean time we have a nice Inverted Head and Shoulders forming to create our B 'leg' of our ABC correction right now, could be a good gainer on a few market big wigs or just an ETF. Looking to enter LONG on breakthrough of neckline, assuming we don't break down of 'HEAD' to form another lower low. taking profit at marked zone, thank ya mother for the rabbits happy trading ladies and gentlemen thetradingtradie
ASX:XJOLong
by tradingtradefortading
2