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BTC is DEAD..Wait...What?This is just some simple analysis for BTC through mid-April. Take a look at the respect bears played to the major trend line in white. If I were a betting man...(I am)...I would say we have found our bottom(6k) from recent all-time high(20k) and now were are either looking to retest the major trend from July 2017 (around 7k) or preparing to start a new market cycle. If you are bullish on BTC like I am look for one of the options above. If you are bearish on BTC look for a breakdown of the major trend. If this happens I expect there to be a double bottom at 6k at which point bulls will regain control. Hope you all enjoy this analysis and happy trading!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by bohrryan
BITB - 400% Since 06/02Looking at BITB, it looks like there have been 5 waves completely since it began trading. After the completion of the 5th wave, it retraced back to near the end of wave 4 which is an indication that my count is correct. From here we have completed the first and, what looks like, the second wave of this new impulse wave. This is in synchronised with most other coins in the market, so I am bullish on this coin which seen over 400% increase since 06/02. Wave 2 retraced 50% of wave 1, also close to the end of wave 4 of lesser degree, which is a healthy correction following Elliott’s principle. The potential here is too good to miss so I will be trading this carefully. I initiated 2/3 of my total trade here @ $0.018 and will add the remainder of my position when we break $0.02. My first target is $0.0234 (46%) but I will be looking to carry this position to the next target of $0.028 (104.38%) My main concern for this coin, as the BTC price continues to climb, when it is time for BTC’s retracement, it will most likely cause a pull back in this market. I’m hoping these pull backs coincide with my target for this trade. In the next couple days we will be testing the middle channel which will be the first hurdle. If we cannot break this we could be headed lower so I have place my stop at $0.0155 (14.9%) Confidence Rating: 6/10
BLong
by JoshThomas04
1
Correction Is Over! ... For the most part. Read OnHey guys, If any of you have seen, I was calling a 500 point (conservative) dip in the Nasdaq a couple weeks ago and we seem to have got around that (A 900 point dip, even better). Correction seems to be over for the most part. We have a positive slopping 5 Day Moving Average, the Ichimoku cloud seems to have some good readings here indicating a strong uptrend. Only thing I'd be worried about is that 0.236 retraction. I expect it to show some resistance due to the heavy uptrend over the past couple days, only question is whether or not it will act as resistance for the uptrend or support for the downtrend... So let's say the correction is over and we're back up. I expect Nasdaq to move up to .236, then back down to .382 (Which is the yearly vwap on the QQQ if you use that) and then continue on upward to the ATH. If the .236 level acts as a very minor resistance point, uptrend is 100% confirmed, get in immediately if that's the case until we hit the ATH. Let's say correction is not over, which it could not be due to the negative CPI report released on Wednesday. If that's the case, we expect some support on the way downward such as the top of the cloud, the 5 Day MA, or the .382 retractment. However, due to the high VIX level, odds are a move downward would be very strong, lots of volume, and would blow right through all those points. Final target for that would be around 6400. Either way, money is to be made. Be smart and Optimize profits guys. Don't tell the market what to think, listen to it. Good Luck and if you have questions, ask away in the comments.
TVC:IXIC
by croganm
66
LITECOIN TO $1000 THIS YEAR?!Litecoin's ATH on coinbase reached around $420 in accordance with Bitcoin hitting it's ATH of course. It's mega bull run boosted it by 700% in 35 days. Charlie Lee and the Litecoin Foundation are prioritising the adoption of the coin and the number of platforms and merchant processors supporting LTC is increasing. As a result, I feel that once the cryptocurrency market regains bullish momentum, Litecoin will increase in price as extortionately as it did before. If the price can recover and stabilise from here, another 700% increase would take the Price up to the $1000 region which fits nicely within the parallel channel. However, LTC is reliant on BTC and succeeds by being cheaper and more efficient so if this were to change or bitcoin was to be regulated in the upcoming months then LTC may experience the bears once more. In the short term I feel there may be some more downward movement to come perhaps to retest the support of the parallel channel before upward movement. But, if LTC fails to breakout then there will be more bears to come!
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by UnselfishStops
ETHUSD: 5 Wave Completion A Bearish Sign?ETHUSD update: 1382 all time high reached which was just 3 points shy of the target projection which completes 5 large magnitude waves. The possibility of a broader correction is now increased. In my previous report, I wrote about the possibility of a subwave Wave 4 correction before the bullish Wave 5 which is now in place. That scenario has played out and price has rejected the 2.618 target projection at 1385 which is a sign that all 5 larger magnitude waves are complete. Based on this structure, it is now reasonable to expect a broader correction. Keep in mind, I am not writing this based on feelings, or irrelevant opinions. It is based on the probabilities inherent within the market structure that is in place at the moment. How is this helpful? For one, I would not be looking to establish new longs at these levels because of the increased risk of retrace. How about shorts? The reward/risk is in favor of shorts BUT there is NO immediate reversal structure at the moment. Larger magnitude turning points are often a process and require time to unfold. One bearish bar is not enough to get short in my opinion. What would be a better scenario to justify a short position? A double top or lower high. That is when momentum aligns with the attractive reward/risk. Like I have written about before decisions are better when they are evidence based. And right now there is no evidence of a momentum reversal (a peak and a bearish inside bar is a good start, but not enough to justify risk). This is one of those areas where being flat makes the most sense for MY trading plan at the moment. Now keep in mind, when I write about a broader correction, reasonable levels to anticipate are the 872 to 738 support zone which is the .618 of the recent bullish structure. That is where I would look to put on a swing trade long if the price action can prove itself in that area. This type of correction can take days to unfold so a ton of patience is required. The reason why I am not that interested in the 1069 level (.382 of recent bullish swing) is because it is too shallow relative to the magnitude of correction that I am anticipating. In summary, the current situation in this market is very conflicting. On one side you have structure that signals a broader correction is more likely to unfold in the near future, while there are no reversal patterns in place (a single bar is not enough). In my opinion, until this market shows more clarity, it is easier to just stay flat. That is what my plan calls for. If your plan is more aggressive, that is fine, BUT you MUST take responsibility for your actions, because if you are going to blame others for your lack of experience, then you should NOT trade any market. My trading plan helps me not only to sort out the lower risk opportunities, but it also helps to filter out many would be losing trades. It has a cost though, and that is missing out on some good moves as well. I am okay with that because I know that generating profit and then losing it is more costly than missing out because its not just money you are losing, it is also confidence which you cannot put a value on. Opportunities in financial markets are infinite, while your capital is not. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
60
ETHUSD: Don't Buy High. Consider Bigger Picture.ETHUSD update: New all time high established at 1225 as price backs off into the mid 1100s. When markets runaway, the best thing to do is evaluate the bigger picture to get a better sense of perspective and risk, not get carried away by euphoria. In this report I am going to highlight the next proportional target as well as relevant support levels. Elliott Wave offers a way to categorize market movements and provides a framework to help anticipate how the herd is likely to react next. I am always aware of wave counts, but I do not write about them unless they are worth noting in order to avoid confusion. Now is one of those times worth mentioning where this market is in terms of wave count. At the moment, this market appears to be in a Wave 3 of a broader 5. This price action is typical of a wave 3 since it can never be the shortest wave according to impulse wave rules. This also means the next retrace will be a sub wave 4 and likely unfold in some form of narrow range triangle before breaking out and completing 5 of 5 waves. This serves as a broader road map, and is not an absolute prediction. The potential support levels for the sub wave 4 can be around the 1000 level (.382 of current bullish swing measured from 640 low) or the 863 to 771 zone (.618 of same bullish swing). These are the levels to evaluate for smaller time frame price reversals that can lead to the next bullish wave which has the proportional target of 1385 (2.618 projection measured from 492 low). Buying highs is a high risk behavior, while locking in some profit is a best practice, especially in markets that go vertical like this one. IF the current candle closes in this configuration (a bearish pin bar) that warns of further selling and can be the beginning of the sub wave 4 retrace. In summary, there are always more opportunities in these markets and no need to be emotional about missing out. All markets retrace and offer more opportunities at much more attractive reward/risk ratios. The next significant retrace in this market still offers an attractive buying opportunity for at least one more leg higher before it is reasonable to expect a much broader correction based on the current wave count. The best thing you can do is be patient and keep an eye on the bigger picture because it helps you anticipate the herd and not react to it. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
26
ETHUSD: Push To 1045 Before Potential Correction?ETHUSD update: Price hesitates around 1000 which appears to be developing into a double top formation. Isn't this bearish? In this report I will evaluate the price action and consider what is more likely to follow based on market structure. The price structure leading up to the 1K area is bullish and has not shown any signs of significant weakness yet. The potential double top at the moment does not carry much weight. Why? Markets that are going to retrace often reject resistance areas quickly upon a retest, not float around the highs. Based on this price action, this market is more likely to consolidate on a smaller time frame and break higher. Which is also another way of saying it is NOT a good time to short this market. Based on the most recent pull back attempt, there is now a reversal zone boundary at the 1046 level. This means price can push slightly higher into new high territory and fail for a more significant retrace. This makes the area between current price and the 1045 area an attractive place to lock in some profit, and reduce risk. It is not an area to establish new swing trade or position trades long because the risk of retrace increases the higher it goes. The 978 area which has seen some price gyration is also a notable level because it is a 1.618 extension projected from the 642 low. These levels are usually not precise, but offer a good area to estimate a general target when it comes to assessing reward vs. risk. What all this means is this: To maximize your investment and your operations in this market, you need to at least have a sense of the time horizon for your position. If you are swing trading and bought in recently, this is an area to lock in profit to justify the risk taken, which means it is wiser to unload more of the position than less since the retrace risk is so high. If you are holding for longer term, and own from much lower prices, this also offers a chance to lock in some profit and reduce risk, but you have much more flexibility because a 20 to 30% retrace is much less threatening. Without some sense to time horizon, you will be at the mercy of the market. Your greed and fear will govern your decision making and more than likely get you to buy at the high and sell at the low. As far as buying goes, I am most interested in the retrace IF the market offers such an opportunity. The 881 level (.382 of recent bullish structure) is the first level I am watching for a possible bullish reversal. If price happens to retrace further, the 835 area (old resistance/new support) and the 788 to 724 zone (.618 of recent bullish structure) are the areas I will be watching for an attractive reward/risk opportunity as far as a swing trade goes. In summary, a key concept to remember about technical analysis is this: it offers a framework to organize market information in a way that helps us uncover clues as to what the market is more likely to do in the near future. It offers a way to measure and compare the decisions of the crowd and use that information to develop potential scenarios that the market is more likely to follow. It does not mean the market WILL follow. It is up to us to adjust as new information becomes available. When a market is on it's highs, as a swing trader, that is a place for me to take some profit and reduce risk. I don't care if it goes higher without me. IF the market is nice enough to offer a more attractive opportunity by pulling back to a support, then I will be happy to look for a place to get long in the area. Having this decision making structure allows me to operate in ways that stack probabilities in my favor, and give me a better chance of a profitable outcome on a repetitive basis. Having the ability to extract smaller profits repetitively is much more valuable than a single home run. Comments and questions welcome. Special thanks to The Henry Raines Show and @Goldbug1 for having me on as a guest. Listen to the archive: www.henryrainesshow.podomatic.com
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
30
ETHUSD: Sub 1000 Psychological Resistance Area Higher Risk?ETHUSD update: 954 all time high reached as price reacts to the upper boundary of the 945 reversal zone. Price momentum is bullish and is likely to test 1000 but buying at current prices presents increased risk. This price action is nothing new. When you have strong markets like we have seen in these coins, it is still better to lock SOME profits at highs, and look to buy nearer supports. The biggest problem that I see with new investors is they are controlled by greed. They want to sell at the exact top and feel as if they have lost if the market goes higher without them. This is a normal reaction but must be identified and eliminated because this same greed is what leads to turning a winning position into a losing one. The 945 upper boundary of the reversal zone is a projected level that is measured from the 492 low. IF price fails within this zone, like it is now, that presents a situation that is similar to a double top but not as obvious. This zone, along with target extensions serve as better places to lock in profits, not establish new positions. Why not lock in all profits and just buy back on the pullback? The reason is there is no way to be certain that price will retrace or how much. By locking in some profit, you reduce risk if price decides to fall apart, and by holding onto some of the position allows you to continue to participate in the market IF it continues higher without any significant retrace. This is how a swing trade evolves into a position trade. We can't control profits, we can control risk. As far as where to buy now, the first level I am anticipating is the 835 minor support (.382 of recent bullish swing) which is also an old resistance/new support level (inversion). The second area is the 761 to 710 zone which is relative to the .618 of the recent bullish swing measured from the 640 low. Buying at these levels would be for a swing trade and would have a target some where in the high 900s. The risk has to be determined at the time of the entry. And that will be based on what kind of price action unfolds IF the market chooses to retest one of these areas. I would like to see a reversal pattern such as a double bottom or failed low before I consider anything else. What if price never pulls back? Then I miss the move. I do not care about how high or low markets go, I am only interested in opportunities that present a well defined risk, a signal that shows momentum is in my favor, and a target that is within reason and relatively attractive compared to the risk I have to take. It is possible price may hesitate to retrace and just continue higher to test the psychological 1K resistance, but the risk is unattractive at current levels. In summary, the concept of selling while you can is nothing new to professionals who are aware of the limitations of greed. When markets push highs, that is an opportunity to sell while buyers are plentiful, while selling the precise top is irrelevant. Buying strong markets at a low point offers greater reward potential at a lower risk. Controlling risk is what leads to long term success in any market, not home runs. In a case like this market, waiting for a retrace to a relevant level is the best I can do, especially when price is showing some signs of selling off of a projected resistance area. All markets eventually retrace and if the market I am interested refuses to, then I will look elsewhere for a market that offers opportunities that make much more sense in terms of the risk I have to take. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
32
TRX.X (Tron) Cup and Handle forming for bullish continuation?Hi everyone, this is my first idea published, so I hope I am clear enough! Also, Happy New Year! Recently, we saw Tron follow a nice bullish uptrend and then BOOM a rally up to a new ATH! That was great! Now, thankfully, there is a healthy pullback that is very much needed to avoid a huge crash. Those that bought high, I think you are still in the clear. I am seeing a cup and handle forming on the hourly for tron. The cup is clearly made in the brown/yellow arc, with the parallel channels in purple representing the formation of the handle. As of now, RSI is moving towards the oversold, which is great news because it could relay the message that this is, in fact, coming to its end of the handle in the coming hours/day. I believe we have a good chance of having a wick fill to the 358 sash, but I will be much more conservative and say a risky entry to maximize gains (if this does form) is ~380 sash. That's playing it with HOPES that the handle forms and doesn't continue to down trend, but the vortex indicator is starting to begin its exhaustion to the downside as the price continues to fall. The first half of the cup has low volume relative to the second half of the cup, especially close to the rim. This is another indicator of the cup and handle pattern. THE SAFEST, BEST entry would be AFTER the breakout of ~571 sash on high volume. This would prove to us that when it breaks the rim, the bullish pattern will continue. Our stop loss (if you like to use them, just watch out for the manipulation) would be ~539 sash. Yes, you may miss a nearly 50% gain. Our first target price is ~690 sash, both reasonable and logical, as it is 62% of the height of the cup. Our second target price is ~809 sash, being 126% of the cup height. Our third target price is HODL FOR THE MOON. :) Given the circumstances, the width of the handle will most likely be less than half the width of the cup, and less than half the height of the cup. Again, a RISKY entry is close to ~380 sash....be thoughtful of your assets and your impulse control, THEY ARE KEY to being successful! It is better to gain only 20% than lose 80%. Our best entry should be a breakout of 571 sash with high volume on the breakout. Yes, hodl, but don't listen to people and noise, DO YOUR DD. Listen to the charts, your trading rules, and the fundamentals. If I am wrong, I am wrong, but I am aiming to not going into these trades by hoping, but rather making smart trader decisions. If this helps you, I am very happy!! Best of luck to everyone!
Long
by Eurocrem
16
ETHUSD: Consolidation Breakout And New Levels To Buy.ETHUSD update: New highs made as price touches 890 which should not be too surprising since there is a double bottom and higher low formation off the 647 area. This report will highlight what is reasonable to expect from here. The 814 level is a previously projected target where price basically peaked at the height of the BTC rally. Since then, it has retraced and consolidated, JUST LIKE BTC is doing at the moment. Consolidations are just another word for triangles and triangles are trend continuation patterns. The trend was never bearish. Price is now fluctuating in this area again which offers an opportunity to lock in some profit for swing trade longs. This is a best practice. It reduces risk and allows you to capitalize on the herd while they are buying. Buying now would be a bad idea even though it may look attractive since the "verticalness" is returning. The risk of retrace increases, and that is why it is better to lock some profit it and then hold on to some to see IF the market will continue higher to the next extension target levels. 944 is the upper boundary of the reversal zone where price can fail and retrace back to a newly relevant support level. 975 is the 1.618 extension projected from the 647 low which overlaps a previous extension measured weeks earlier. This is the range where price is more likely to put in a dramatic peak as the market unfolds and provides a reasonable estimate of where to measure reward potential from. As far as the potential retrace, the 735 level is the .382 of the recent bullish structure which is now the nearest relevant support. If price decides to break lower, the 639 to 574 area would be the range to watch since it is the .618 area of the recent bullish structure. If price cannot maintain the current breakout momentum, it will more than likely retest the middle of the range which makes the 735 area more attractive in terms of looking for a reversal structure to go long. I have previously written that the middle of ranges are where price action is more random, but IF price is coming off of a high, that is a different scenario and serves as an exception. In summary, the breakout to 890 is a heads up that this market may be setting up for a broader rally. As a swing trader, I want to be long, but not at highs. The next retrace will at least provide a better level to measure risk from, whether it is 735 or higher. The objective is now to wait for price action to unfold in a reversal pattern where risk is more attractive relative to the potential reward levels currently in place. If price falls through 735 without finding support, then the current move will be a false breakout and at that point is more likely to retest the low of the range since this is where the herd panics. Either way If I am going to buy, it has to be based on my plan which minimizes the kind of bad habits that have been reinforced in this recently unrealistic trading environment. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
25
Cardano (ADA/BTC) Swinging To New HeightsAfter gaining mainstream attention, Cardano (ADA) has seen unprecedented growth and has successfully reached a new all-time-high as previously projected. Now ADA has broken out of yet another bullish pennant and is looking to achieve higher growth. Cardano (ADA) is looking strong on both the fundamental and the technical perspective. One thing to keep in mind, as seen in the previous analysis is that in the short term, if Bitcoin(BTC) rises to new heights, altcoins such as ADA could drop in price because the majority of attention will be on Bitcoin due to the fact that cryptocurrency investors tend to have a fear of missing out (FOMO) on Bitcoin gains and thus sell altcoins for BTC in the short term. First Target: 3460 Second Target: 4350
Long
by DeejaiRiangkrul
2