Alpha
ALPHA/BTC (Key Support Breakdown)💎Technical Analysis Summary💎
BINANCE: ALPHABTC
-ALPHA broke the consolidation key support around 360s sat
-Its value has declined by -17% below the support
-The price barely touches the reverse Fib 2.0 support
-The drop has started moving slowly
-This is a good sign temporarily
-But the Bulls needs to show up more upside price action
-Because if this current support failed again
-The next key level to be watching is around 250s sat
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Alpha Capital Wealth South Africa US30A higher time frame view of how we see the US30 behaving this week
we have provided upper and lower targets and also potential buy and sell zones
support and resistance is noted as well
AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookMarket Outlook 22.06.2020
The S&P 500 moved up 1.9% this week, recovering some losses from the last week. The Nasdaq Composite moved higher with a 3.7% gain.
Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the week in positive territory.
Health care +3.1%
Information technology +2.8%
Consumer staples +2.4%,
Consumer discretionary +2.3%
On the downside
Utilities -2.4%
Energy -1.0%
Real estate -0.8%
Investors are still in the "Buy the dip" mentality after the major recovery from the bottom mad in March this year, and confirmations made by the Fed announcing on Monday that it will start buying individual corporate bonds through its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility.
AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast
We predict the market is going to continue to be high volatility range trading in the coming days and weeks, the economy is not going well enough to sustain a major rally, BUT the fed and government is going to continue to pump liquidity into the markets and that alone that should support the current price levels. The market traders are not clear on the next market move as they were in previous weeks and this creates elevated levels of volatility.
We see the next key level as 3000, and then 2800.
Trade Smartly,
Alon, AlphaOverBeta
Alpha Over Beta Market Outlook 15.06.2020Market headline: Stock indexes decline in the worst week since March
The S&P500 started the week meeting a significant milestone: it was positive for the year! plus the Nasdaq Composite finally rose above 10,000 - but went downhill from there as it surrendered to profit-taking that turned to be the worst week since March.
The S&P 500 fell 4.8%, the Nasdaq fell 2.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.6%.
Most of the week's losses came on Thursday with the S&P 500 declining 5.9% and rebounded on Friday. as there was no specific news that contributed to the decline, some blamed the Fed while others pointed to data showing increasing rates of coronavirus in many U.S. states reopening the economy in any case non of was really new news.
All S&P 500 sectors finished the week down, ranging from information technology down 2.0% to energy down 11.1%.
AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast
We predict the market is going to continue to be high volatility range trading in the coming days and weeks, the economy is not going well enough to sustain a major rally, BUT the fed and government is going to continue to pump liquidity into the markets and that alone that should support the current price levels. The market traders are not clear on the next market move as they were in previous weeks and this creates elevated levels of volatility.
We see the next key level as 2950 , and then 2800.
Trade Smartly,
Alon, AlphaOverBeta
XAUUSD H4todays gold analysis after USD circumtances. the gold will retrace after Lower High and falls to 1690
XSPA,Broke resistance , AlphaOverBeta Price AlertHello traders,
XpresSpa Group, Inc., a health and wellness services company, provides spa services and related products at airports. The company offers massage services for the neck, back, feet, and whole body; nail care, including pedicures, manicures, and polish changes; travel products, such as neck pillows, blankets, and massage tools; and cryotherapy services, compression services, and personal care services, as well as retail products.
As of April 6, 2020, it provided its services through 51 locations in 25 airports worldwide. The company was formerly known as FORM Holdings Corp. and changed its name to XpresSpa Group, Inc. in January 2018. XpresSpa Group, Inc. is headquartered in New York, New York.
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Industry: Personal Services
Market Cap(M$): 97
52 Week High: 5.45$
52 Week Low: 0.05$
Forward PE: -3.48
Technical Analysis:
Analyzing the stock from a technical perspective, we have these conclusions:
The stock belongs to a weak sector which is related to tourism and flights but as the economies of the world are reopening, the stock may stage a bounce up,
The latest earnings report was good (missing the current coronavirus related quarter), and technically it broke resistance with high volume,
We open a long position at the current market price with a stop loss of 12% down,
Trade Smartly,
Alon, AlphaOverBeta
Ahrvo Daily Movers ⬆: Turtle Beach Corp.About Turtle Beach
Turtle Beach Corporation(ticker: HEAR) is an audio technology company. It designs audio products for consumer, commercial, and healthcare markets. The company markets premium headsets for use with personal computers, mobile devices, and video game consoles under the brand Turtle Beach (TurtleBeach.com). Under the brand HyperSound (HyperSound.com), the company markets pioneering directed audio solutions that have applications in digital signage and kiosks, consumer electronics, and healthcare. Turtle Beach Corporation, formerly known as Parametric Sound Corporation, is based in Valhalla, New York, and was founded in 1975.
Ahrvo Stock Rankings
Turtle Beach Corporation is one of only sixteen companies (out of over 7,000+ stocks we track) on Ahrvo that ranks above 90 in the AhrvoScore, Growth Score, Momentum Score, and Value Score based on the most recent daily rankings. Turtle Beach has an AhrvoScore (overall score) of 99, which is up 43 points(76%) over the last 3 months. Turtle Beach’s Momentum Score, Value Score, Quality, and Growth Score are 94, 96, 86, and 93, respectively. Over the last 3 months, HEAR’s Momentum Score and Value Value have experienced substantial growth, up 83 points( 754%) and 25 points (35%). While Quality Score is down 1 point to 86 (1%) and Growth is up 3 points to 93 (3%). Relative to competitors, Turtle Beach ranks higher across all stock scores: Ahrvo Score 99 vs. 59, Momentum Score 94 vs. 59, Value Score 96 vs. 52, Quality Score 86 vs. 73, and Growth Score 93 vs. 48. Ahrvo’s proprietary trading signal also indicates that HEAR is a STRONG BUY.
Our Take
Turtle Beach Corporation has been a top performer for quite some time. Since the market bottomed on March 23, 2020, Turtle Beach is up 125%, while the small-cap index (ticker: IWM) is up 31.5% - substantially outperforming. Growth is poised to continue as company fundamentals continue to accelerate. Industry growth is driven by secular trends and strong user demand. According to NPD Group, U.S. retail sales in the Accessories and Game Card category reached an all-time high in April (while other U.S. retail sales tanked 16.4%). U.S. retail sales significantly exceeded the previous high set in April 2018. As a company Turtle Beach’s April sales more than doubled the company’s previous all-time high. Demand for its products remained strong as 8 of the top-10 best-selling headsets YTD are made by Turtle Beach. The wireless gaming headset market is expected to grow at 13% a year through 2024, adding ~$1 billion in market value. During their last earnings call, management upgraded full-year guidance. In addition, the company has no long-term debt. The fact that Turtle Beach’s Momentum Score and Value Score have risen simultaneously, indicates that growth is keeping up with price momentum. Despite strong price action since March, HEAR is only up 21% YTD vs. -13% for the IWM. Valuation remains very cheap with a forward P/E multiple of 7.6x.
-Appo Agbamu, CFA
This material is for informational purposes only. Under no circumstances should any information or materials presented be used or construed as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities, financial instruments, investments, or other services. Any investment made is at your sole discretion. There are many factors that you must consider when making an investment decision, including, but not limited to, product features, risks, whether or not an investment meets your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and other personalized factors. Investing in securities involves risks, and there is always the potential of losing your entire investment.
SPY-Broad Sector Support , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders,
Market Outlook 01.06.2020
S&P 500 above its 200-day moving average following a broad sector recovery
The stock market extended its rally this week on continued optimism about an economic recovery and a fear of missing out on further gains. The S&P500 was up +3.0% for the week, base on a nice uptrend in All 11 S&P 500 sectors which had finished in the green and supported the S&P 500 to close above its 200 days moving average.
U.S.-China relations are front news again as there was uncertainty regarding China approving legislation to tighten its control over Hong Kong.
Trump said the U.S. will remove special treatment for Hong Kong, will review practices of companies from China on U.S. financial exchanges, and will terminate its relationship with the HWO (World Health Organization), as he is trying to maneuver domestic riots from home.
AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast
We have chartered a number of bands for the S&P500, these bands are used for risk control and decision making.
295-310 - This is the best scenario we have for the rest of 2020. This bullish range holds as long as the price is above 295
280-295 - is the current locked trading range, when prices went above 295, it triggered a bullish signal in our systems.
265-280 is the bearish zone.
Trade Smartly,
Alon, AlphaOverBeta
SPY-Staying bullish , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders,
Market Outlook 18.05.2020
This week the stock market returned to positive territory with big technology companies leading the heard.
The stock market was up this week with the S&P 500 +3.2% to end the week at 2955.45.
Moderna (MRNA) was responsible for most of the earnings this week after announcing they have preliminary results for a coronavirus vaccine, this piece of news jump-started the week as the market made most of this week’s return on this day. The fed chair had its own contribution to the elevated markets reiterating the fed has not finished it’s support of the market and still has ammunition to fight this, this declaration kept the market hovering close to 3000 psychologically critical levels
AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast
We have chartered a number of bands for the S&P500, these bands are used for risk control and decision making.
295-310 - This is the best scenario we have for the rest of 2020. This bullish range holds as long as the price is above 295
280-295 - is the current locked trading range, when prices went above 295, it triggered a bullish signal in our systems.
265-280 is the bearish zone.
Trade Smartly,
Alon, AlphaOverBeta
SPY-Decision Point , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookMarket Outlook 18.05.2020
This week the stock market returned to positive territory with big technology companies leading the heard.
Stocks decline las week after Fed J.Powell earns about recovery, US-China tensions increase
The stock was down this week with the S&P 500 down -2.3% to 2863.7.
This week continued the previous few weeks high volatility environment that is probably here to stay for the next few weeks as the market is in a crucial decision point,
On one hand, there are the bulls pulling up with FOMO, positive hope for a vaccine against the coronavirus, optimism about the short duration of the current recession and economy reopening soon, on the other hand, there are the bears pulling down with economic conditions fear, uncertainty as to how and when will the economy recover and what is the damage to small-medium size businesses, for us 2850 for the S&P500 is that decision point, moving above it means the bulls have won and below means, the bears are in control.
AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast
We have chartered a number of bands for the S&P500, these bands are used for risk control and decision making.
285-290 - this is the bullish zone, as long as the S&P500 stays in or above this zone, the sentiment is bullish.
280-265 - This is the “Undecided” zone where the market had not decided yet as to where the stock market is going.
Below 265 - is the bearish zone with the bears in control pulling prices downwards.
Trade Smartly,
Alon, AlphaOverBeta
SPY-Decision Time , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders,
The S&P 500 lost 1.9% last week ending the week at 283, below the next resistance of 285, as more and more countries around the world reach deep into the government pockets to get the much-needed funds to get the world economy going once again.
The US, Europe and other global markets declined last week as a meltdown in oil prices increased volatility in the markets.
The May WTI oil futures contract price dropped to a negative price before expiring, and the June contract price dropped too, this is the first time in history that oil prices are negative.
The very bad move in oil prices is a result of many factors, such as selling pressure due to technicals prior to contract expiration, plus limited storage space due to a drop in demand for oil.
Stock prices improved later in the week with the government enacting another coronavirus relief package that includes additional funds for small businesses.
AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast
The next few weeks are decision time for the market and cherry-picking for specific stocks that may be the early ones to come out of this current crisis. The market has been range trading for some time as traders as contemplating which way to go, up or down, range trading usually means very good time period to cherry-pick specific, high-quality stocks at favorable prices which is what we did last week and will continue to do this week as well.
Our models support the more optimistic side of the market with a 310 target for SPY in the near future that will be followed by a correction and then another leg up.
Are we in a stock market bubble?
Our models support a slow recovery in the market, with a sharp disconnect from main street and the economy and that's for a number of reasons :
1. Massive stimulus packages
2. Massive rate cuts, together with 1 that means a lot of cheap money that has to go somewhere
3. Many bargains at current price levels
4. Deep optimism within the trading community that usually translates into an uptrend
That's our forecast and we follow that in our portfolio BUT we also have quite large hedge positions and tight risk policies.
Is it time to buy Oil-related stocks?
An experienced trader should know to filter the noise and look at the market reality from a neutral, non-judgmental stand,
The current meltdown in oil creates many good opportunities for companies relying on oil-related products to lower costs and provide high-quality products at cheaper prices.
Oil is not only the source for transportation but also serves as the basis for other related products, such as:
soap, perfume, and other cosmetics
fertilizer, insecticides for the agriculture industry
tar, asphalt for the infrastructure domain
and last but not least Plastic, which is the base for many products from kitchenware, furniture all the way to packaging.
So when doing research for opportunities these sectors should also hold some of them.
AlphaOverBeta uptrending watchlist
Using AOB Dashboard to spot trending opportunities in the market.
APA
MUR
FLR
XOP
SIRI
EBAY
Check out the list on our Dashboard
Out top-ranking stock for the week is Apache Corporation (APA)
Apache Corporation is an independent energy company, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company has operations in onshore assets located in the Permian and Midcontinent/Gulf Coast onshore regions; and offshore assets situated in the Gulf of Mexico region.
AlphOverBeta Sectors rank
As we stated last week, the biopharmaceutical and healthcare sectors are picking up momentum, we estimate that this trend is a long term one and is here to stay, the next 6-9 months are going to be all about protecting ourselves from the current and future pandemic, so these sectors make complete sense to investors,
Our long equity portfolio is long on the sector and specific picks in that sector
Trade Smartly,
Alon, AlphaOverBeta
SPY-Closing on resistance , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookMarket Outlook 19.04.2020
The S&P 500 gained 2.7% last week ending the week at 287.5, very close to the next resistance of 290, as more and more countries around the world reach deep into the government pockets to get the much-needed funds to get the world economy going once again.
The next quarter is going to be much about the companies earning report and the economic contraction in many countries, the news from China is -6.5% contraction, for the first time in at least two decades.
AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast
The next week is going to be a tougher fight between the bottom callers and the more optimistic voices in the market, as two powers are pulling the market to both sides the suffering economy on one hand and the stimulus packages that support it on the other, the US government reacted fast and with big money and at least in the short term its working and the market is moving forward.
Our models support the more optimistic side of the fight with a 290 target for SPY in the near future that will be followed by a correction and then another leg up.
Are we in a stock market bubble?
Stock market bubbles are created when assets are overpriced, way and beyond their fair value. Examining equity prices under the economic conditions we might say that last week's move inflated prices way over their fair value.
Current indices are now less than 20% down from the all-time high, that's out of bearish territory that was declared only two weeks ago.
So which prices are fair value? The - 35% bottom made three weeks ago?
Or the current prices which are only 20% off the all-time high?
We are in a fed created bubble.. again.
As the fed was trying to stabilize the economy they threw money at the problem which ultimately finds its way to equities and bond markets.
Trade Smartly,
Alon, AlphaOverBeta
SPY-Short term 1-2-3 pattern , AlphaOverBeta Technical AnalysisHello traders,
The stock market continued to rally last week as trader risk appetite continued to increase with the Fed announcing more stimulus action.
The S&P 500 gained 12.1% in one of the best weeks since the 90's
The coronavirus situation is starting to be a little bit more optimistic as some countries like Italy and Spain start to see their curve flattening and the number of cases in the US is moving to the lower side of the estimates.
AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast
Next week is going to be a key week for the market as the rally hit a certain high that will test the buyers, in case the S&P500 holds over the 2600 level, this will be a significant strong bullish trigger, on the other side, the 2450 is used as the levels to watch for another leg to the downside.
When reading and listening to all the trading experts, you hear the same advice from all - stay out, for now, the risk is not over, pick the higher-quality stocks and the market didn't bottom yet.
A simple question - if that's so, how is it that the market is up? Who's buying? Can't be retail traders, they are out, listening to the "gurus", so... It's the gurus buying! That's the only conclusion here, they tell nice stories, but in the meantime, they buy the dip.
Trade Smartly,
Alon, AlphaOverBeta
SPY range trading, AlphaOverBeta Technical AnalysisHello traders,
SPY had completed a 1-2-3 pattern and is consolidating its price pattern, this is very good technical news as price returned to standard behavior after moving wildly and unpredictably.
The current trade range is 245-265 in the short term, any move above the 265( which our model begins to increase the probability for! ) will provide a bullish short term indication,
moving below the 240-245 will provide the trigger that the market is headed to re-test the 220 lows.
We are currently short term bullish on SPY with PUT options hedging our position, crossing the 265-270 resistance will provide a major trigger to go long equities.
Trade Smartly,
Alon, AlphaOverBeta
SPY 1-2-3 Pattern, AlphaOverBeta Technical AnalysisHello traders,
SPY Had just completed a 1-2-3 pattern confirming the 265 as the short term top.
Our technical analysis models predict a downtern next week re-testing the 220 lows,
There is mote than 50% that the low of the 220 will break marking the 200 as the next level to watch.
breaking the 220 level will trigger a strong short trigger for SPY and other weak stocks on AlphaOverBeta short watchlist available for our subscribers
Trade Smartly,
Alon, AlphaOverBeta
SPY-Short term bounce , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders,
SPY dropped 35% since its all-time high in the last 5 weeks,
At the moment traders are looking for direction and any estimate is just that .. an estimate.
Our models set two lines for SPY to cross and trigger a meaningful alert.
245 to the upside, crossing this line to the upside should increase risk in the long portfolio, the second line for long risk increase is 270
220 to the downside, this is the lowest the market has been in this downturn, crossing this line to the downside significantly increases the risk in the short portfolio (or cash)
Trade Smartly,
Alon, AlphaOverBeta
Weekly Outlook, AlphaOverBetaHello traders,
As we are approaching the end of this volatile week of trading, I would like to conclude it with these insights :
1. The fed proved once again they contribute to the short term volatility instead of doing their job and keep stability in the markets, firing their entire arsenal at a problem that is has a small financial base (and a big psychological base) is definitely an overshoot
2. Traders are pricing the slowdown that we are facing (and will continue to) following the government reaction to the coronavirus, this will stay at least unto Q2
3. Oil prices are too low, selling it at these ridiculous prices will hurt oil-related companies bottom line, cheap is not always good
4. The market will recover, participate and don't anticipate.
Trade smartly,
Alon, AlphaOverBeta
SPY-Short term Support/Resistance , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders,
The market had its first trade halt since 2008, and volatility is extremely high (more than 4 times the average),
Trading the market is challenging. Our models have set two checkpoints for the market to make a short term decision:
270 - is the short term support for the S&P500, breaking that support would generate another leg to the downside
290 - is the short term resistance, breaking it to the upside would trigger a short term rally to the upside
Remember to trade with rules, not emotions, the market will rebound, make sure you are in the game to benefit from it.
Trade Smartly,
Alon, AlphaOverBeta
SPY-Where from here?, AlphaOverBeta Technical AnalisysHello traders,
The market is in complete chaos in the last two trading weeks, the volatility is high with daily swings that we haven't seen in years, the coronavirus is driving fear up the wall and the market is in no-decision point, these are challenging times to trade equities and so in order to guide our trade we put two lines in the sand to assist making the decision:
1. 2800-2850 to the downside - this critical area is the area that has historically used for supporting the market prices, breaching it will trigger a major downtrend
2. 3000-3020 to the upside - this is the resistance area in the last two weeks, breaking this to the upside, with heavy volume, and risk appetite is back
Trade Smartly,
Alon, AlphaOverBeta
