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SPY-Short term bounce , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, SPY dropped 35% since its all-time high in the last 5 weeks, At the moment traders are looking for direction and any estimate is just that .. an estimate. Our models set two lines for SPY to cross and trigger a meaningful alert. 245 to the upside, crossing this line to the upside should increase risk in the long portfolio, the second line for long risk increase is 270 220 to the downside, this is the lowest the market has been in this downturn, crossing this line to the downside significantly increases the risk in the short portfolio (or cash) Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
Weekly Outlook, AlphaOverBetaHello traders, As we are approaching the end of this volatile week of trading, I would like to conclude it with these insights : 1. The fed proved once again they contribute to the short term volatility instead of doing their job and keep stability in the markets, firing their entire arsenal at a problem that is has a small financial base (and a big psychological base) is definitely an overshoot 2. Traders are pricing the slowdown that we are facing (and will continue to) following the government reaction to the coronavirus, this will stay at least unto Q2 3. Oil prices are too low, selling it at these ridiculous prices will hurt oil-related companies bottom line, cheap is not always good 4. The market will recover, participate and don't anticipate. Trade smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
SPY-Short term Support/Resistance , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, The market had its first trade halt since 2008, and volatility is extremely high (more than 4 times the average), Trading the market is challenging. Our models have set two checkpoints for the market to make a short term decision: 270 - is the short term support for the S&P500, breaking that support would generate another leg to the downside 290 - is the short term resistance, breaking it to the upside would trigger a short term rally to the upside Remember to trade with rules, not emotions, the market will rebound, make sure you are in the game to benefit from it. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
SPY-Where from here?, AlphaOverBeta Technical AnalisysHello traders, The market is in complete chaos in the last two trading weeks, the volatility is high with daily swings that we haven't seen in years, the coronavirus is driving fear up the wall and the market is in no-decision point, these are challenging times to trade equities and so in order to guide our trade we put two lines in the sand to assist making the decision: 1. 2800-2850 to the downside - this critical area is the area that has historically used for supporting the market prices, breaching it will trigger a major downtrend 2. 3000-3020 to the upside - this is the resistance area in the last two weeks, breaking this to the upside, with heavy volume, and risk appetite is back Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
GLD-Double top formation , AlphaOverBeta Trade AlertHello traders, GLD was spotted on the AlphaOverBeta radar as forming ( Asymmetric) double top bearish formation, this usually means that the next move is to the downside, The formation is incomplete and will be completed once the price pattern goes below the 145.5$ level , watch out for this formation since its a high probability trigger, once formed, which may trigger a bearish move in GLD for the short term, Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:GLDShort
by Alon_AOB
SPY-How important was yesterday ? , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, Yesterday (Feb 4, 2020) was a technically significant day for the S&P500 - a breakout day after some time in which the market showed signs of building a downtrend (which is a part of a natural market price action). You may see in the chart that since the definition of a downtrend is lower lows and lower highs we have been confirming that definition until yesterday, then a breakout candle broke through and invalidated the downtrend, at least for the short term. The significance of yesterday is in the fact that price action managed to break the downtrend to the upside, after touching the 320 level as indicated by Fibonacci and our forecast models (see our previous forecast), We usually provide clear forecast for the rest of the week, only in this case our models are sitting quietly on this decision point, we may see the return of the downtrend but in case the market forms an uptrend in the coming days, we will declare the correction as over and increase our risk, as our modeled strategies suggest. Trade smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
1
SPY Are we done correcting ? , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, Looking at the markets in this and last week, Many traders ask themselves two basic questions this week: Is the market in correction mode? Is the market on a bearish cycle? According to our models the market is in correction mode, so answer your question #1 is: Yes We are definitely not in a bearish cycle, the market had a correction that is not anywhere near bearish talk, so the answer to question #2 is NO! According to our forecasting models, we still have some more downside risk all the way to 315 , in case the market reaches 315, equity valuations will be very attractive to many buyers and we forecast that a new up wave will start again. Trade Safely Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alon_AOB
Is it time to SHORT BA ? AlphaOverBeta Trade AlertsHello traders, BA just touched a very significant support level of 310$, the company has been in trouble ever since launching the 737 MAX , the crashes and the way the company handles the issues, the company grounded it's 737 MAX fleet and is losing millions daily because of the failing design of the aircraft. With all its problems , current and in the future, the price crashed (pan intended..) to 310$ as the company is about to announce its earnings on Jan 31. If the earnings are going to be lower than expectations, we estimate a meltdown in price all the way to the 200$ levels, Our handling for BA is a Sell Stop @ 300$ with Stop Loss at 320$ Trade safely, Alon (AlphaOverBeta)
NYSE:BAShort
by Alon_AOB
1
Is the SPY about to correct ? AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, The market continues to fly high without looking back , this is supported by a number of important factors such as the positive messages from the white house and china regarding phase I agreement and the future of the trade war, strong economic numbers , and some technical factors as well. as we can see in the chart, the RSI has reached a peak above 70, this means that we are again slightly overbought and the market is about to face some range trading soon, this is a healthy move by the market as it prepares for a charge at our next milestone which is 345 This is the perfect market to cherry-pick investment assets as this market hides the real gems that may fly as the market stays in consolidation mode. Trade Safely, Alon (AlphaOverBeta)
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alon_AOB
GS Goldman Sachs: $245 artificially undervalued towards $1,000new markets new customers when the rich becomes richer and the rise of middle class require more banking needs Goldman shall dominate this space in the next decade. That liquidity from the FED and make America great again shall benefit strong hands Price action wise it's a Parabolic to fresh highs -- LOADED for the long run warren may just mark this up to $300 to make a statement REMINDER: this listed most issues and as underwriter packager it knows how to surprise the PUBLIC
NYSE:GS
by senyor
BITCOIN PRICE TARGET! $20,000 IN WEEKS!Redid my previous chart for better visuals. Im not a "moonboy" but price action does seem to be following this since capitulation. We're looking at target next of about 20k. 3 waves make a pattern so keep an eye on the bottom support of the current range between 13666 and 11200. 11k should hold and then the 21ema holds. Look at how the 21ema is following my regression line? Look at the previous ones. Now remember, those green regression lines were already plotted before the yellow 21ema then follows. At 20k, we'll see if it forms another wave for higher or what it does. Thanks for reading
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by AfricanSatoshi
2