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SPY-How important was yesterday ? , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, Yesterday (Feb 4, 2020) was a technically significant day for the S&P500 - a breakout day after some time in which the market showed signs of building a downtrend (which is a part of a natural market price action). You may see in the chart that since the definition of a downtrend is lower lows and lower highs we have been confirming that definition until yesterday, then a breakout candle broke through and invalidated the downtrend, at least for the short term. The significance of yesterday is in the fact that price action managed to break the downtrend to the upside, after touching the 320 level as indicated by Fibonacci and our forecast models (see our previous forecast), We usually provide clear forecast for the rest of the week, only in this case our models are sitting quietly on this decision point, we may see the return of the downtrend but in case the market forms an uptrend in the coming days, we will declare the correction as over and increase our risk, as our modeled strategies suggest. Trade smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
1
SPY Are we done correcting ? , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, Looking at the markets in this and last week, Many traders ask themselves two basic questions this week: Is the market in correction mode? Is the market on a bearish cycle? According to our models the market is in correction mode, so answer your question #1 is: Yes We are definitely not in a bearish cycle, the market had a correction that is not anywhere near bearish talk, so the answer to question #2 is NO! According to our forecasting models, we still have some more downside risk all the way to 315 , in case the market reaches 315, equity valuations will be very attractive to many buyers and we forecast that a new up wave will start again. Trade Safely Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alon_AOB
Is it time to SHORT BA ? AlphaOverBeta Trade AlertsHello traders, BA just touched a very significant support level of 310$, the company has been in trouble ever since launching the 737 MAX , the crashes and the way the company handles the issues, the company grounded it's 737 MAX fleet and is losing millions daily because of the failing design of the aircraft. With all its problems , current and in the future, the price crashed (pan intended..) to 310$ as the company is about to announce its earnings on Jan 31. If the earnings are going to be lower than expectations, we estimate a meltdown in price all the way to the 200$ levels, Our handling for BA is a Sell Stop @ 300$ with Stop Loss at 320$ Trade safely, Alon (AlphaOverBeta)
NYSE:BAShort
by Alon_AOB
1
Is the SPY about to correct ? AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, The market continues to fly high without looking back , this is supported by a number of important factors such as the positive messages from the white house and china regarding phase I agreement and the future of the trade war, strong economic numbers , and some technical factors as well. as we can see in the chart, the RSI has reached a peak above 70, this means that we are again slightly overbought and the market is about to face some range trading soon, this is a healthy move by the market as it prepares for a charge at our next milestone which is 345 This is the perfect market to cherry-pick investment assets as this market hides the real gems that may fly as the market stays in consolidation mode. Trade Safely, Alon (AlphaOverBeta)
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alon_AOB
GS Goldman Sachs: $245 artificially undervalued towards $1,000new markets new customers when the rich becomes richer and the rise of middle class require more banking needs Goldman shall dominate this space in the next decade. That liquidity from the FED and make America great again shall benefit strong hands Price action wise it's a Parabolic to fresh highs -- LOADED for the long run warren may just mark this up to $300 to make a statement REMINDER: this listed most issues and as underwriter packager it knows how to surprise the PUBLIC
NYSE:GS
by senyor
BITCOIN PRICE TARGET! $20,000 IN WEEKS!Redid my previous chart for better visuals. Im not a "moonboy" but price action does seem to be following this since capitulation. We're looking at target next of about 20k. 3 waves make a pattern so keep an eye on the bottom support of the current range between 13666 and 11200. 11k should hold and then the 21ema holds. Look at how the 21ema is following my regression line? Look at the previous ones. Now remember, those green regression lines were already plotted before the yellow 21ema then follows. At 20k, we'll see if it forms another wave for higher or what it does. Thanks for reading
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by AfricanSatoshi
2
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE - BTC at $300,000!?Hello everyone! Hope you guys are having an awesome weekend. I wanted to throw this out there and let folks know where the $300k price point comes from when you hear people discuss it. The total market cap for physical gold is just north of $6 Trillion. Yes, that is a lot. If you take Bitcoin and its 21 million supply cap with a similar market cap...you arrive at $300,000. Additionally, when taking fib levels into consideration using log scaling, you arrive at a similar number. Seriously, it's nuts. Last but not least, we can draw attention to our triple bottom. We have done it and can expect a reversal. Pair this with some fundamentals of Bakkt in November (they need to actually buy physical BTC before they open) and a potential ETF in Q1 2019, we can be on the way to some serious gains. I'll let the $300,000 figure sit with you for this Sunday...enjoy it. Take it easy, DA BULL (got my horns back)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
3
Massive Alpha To Be Found In This Chicken Spread!So this spread revolves around the simple, brutal strength that we are seeing in the economy right now. People are spending huge amounts of money on eating out right now, and given the ISM and UMCSI numbers I don't see that slowing down any time soon. Here, we pit a strong, cyclical restaurant chain specializing in chicken against a weak, defensive, consumer staples that is losing market share and in the worst spot from a macro perspective. This one's an easy winner. I was in this morning with a 3-1 R:R 40% target. Don't forget to hedge out those betas! Cheers, Andrew
NASDAQ:WINGLong
by wolneyaa
ISM Play With Massive Alpha And Lots More To ComeSo this play is a complex spread that pits a strong machinery company and a strong retail / cons. disc. company against two weak chemical makers. While the play may initially not make much sense, the alpha here is generated from the comments that companies in these sectors made in the last ISM and NMI reports. Expected weakness in chemicals as input prices increase, and expected strength in consumer spending and capital investment by manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms alike. This spread is pitted perfectly for the current environment and is efficient as I could make it. I was in this morning @ 11.97, and plan to hold for an expected 30% upside from here. My stop on this one remains around 11. I may write some OTM calls on my longs here to even further increase the value here. DO NOT FORGET TO BETA-HEDGE. Cheers, Andrew
NASDAQ:POOLLong
by wolneyaa
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE - A Nasdaq HedgeGood day everyone! DA Bull here with a quick big picture discussion. The Nasdaq 100 is known as the "tech-index". It is composed of over 3,000 companies and took a major hit during the dot com bubble. However, we are finding the NASDAQ at historic levels once again. When a price hits historic levels that does not mean sell. You will never hear DA Bull say sell for that reason. In this case, I would strongly encourage folks to consider the risk/reward. World debt is at $164 Trillion. U.S. Corporate debt is over $6.4 Trillion. Rates are rising. Inflation is rising. Without getting into how historical these levels of debt are, the fact remains many debts will be refinanced soon. With those 4 facts above, we can expect profit margins of major companies to lessen over the coming years. The companies with the most debts accrued during these fiscally friendly times - with the debts still on the books - will feel the rate hikes the most. Keep in mind I'm not here to talk about systemic risk or preach to you that the sky is falling...I'm here just to discuss risk/reward. Simply based on this small viewpoint and comparing the similarities of the NASDAQ 100 right now to the NASDAQ 20 years ago, you will see a very similar patter. It would appear, based on history (which doesn't repeat itself, but tends to rhyme), that we are very close to the peak. Since 2010 the NASDAQ has given 4x returns. That is pretty spectacular. How much more can an investor expect? I'm not sure, but another 25%+ is probably off the table, unless the peak has a very VERY tall wick. In saying all this, technology stocks have proven to be great investments. The largest tech companies have almost single handedly moved the S&P the last several months. For those tech lovers, have a look at Bitcoin. Blockchain and cryptocurrency is the future. Bitcoin has been nearing a low and can prove to be a great hedge over the next few years as many go up in arms with the amount of debt in the system. - DA Bear -
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
1
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE - BTC "Double Three" ScenarioHello everyone and happy weekend! DA Bull here giving you guys a quick scenario to think of as we start zoning in on $6k once again. Most folks following TA here on Tradingview realize that $6k is a major support. Most folks have gone super bearish since that ascending wedge drop from $7400. If you have been following our "Time for Tea" write-up, the drop would not have surprised you one bit. (You can check it out below where we are still publishing updates.) Here at Digital Alpha we have been long-term bullish (1 year), mid-term bearish (1 month), and short -term bearish/sideways (1 week). We might be flipping the mid-term and short-term soon, but as of now we are waiting to see the next move - likely a test near the $6k region. If we go up from here there's a good chance for $6600 (even $6900!), which will still keep our models all valid. The "Double Three" is the chart today. This is an WXY elliot wave pattern that ends with an ABCDE triangle for the "Y" portion. During the last run BTC had, this was the pattern that existed. However, we then had some sideways movement after the ABCDE breakout. The sideways movement can lead to the "X" and "Z" we have question marks next to. We leave that possibility wide open. If we see a WXYXZ then that would be a "Triple Three". Without getting too technical and creating confusion, the take home message is this might be a bottom coming up. The price movement after the bottom does not lead to a paraBULLic run, so no need to go crazy yet. Good entries is the name of the game here. I say good entries because risk/reward is something to consider. If $6k is the bottom and you start entering near $6k, then you have obviously gotten a great entry for the next run - AND this is something we can safely expect. If $5.5k occurs (we have been looking at $5.5k near Sept 20-24th for several months now - again read "Time for Tea") then your $6k entry still looks great. Sure you can try to catch the wick, but you might miss the quick rebound. Even more bearish scenarios exist of $4.5k and lower, but in the next run will you kick yourself for entering at $6k? No. You might kick yourself for entering above $10k though! Keep in mind that going to $4.5k and lower during a fast selloff will most likely last just a few hours. The major wick that pierced $6k in early 2018 only lasted a few hours. Were you asleep? Were you out to dinner? Were you at work in a meeting? Did you have access to your trading platform!? Try to realize that the chance for you to make a trade during that time frame was small. Now, what happened afterwards? Very fast price rise. Moral to the story, consider what an entry at these levels will mean several months from now. Don't try to be the guy that catches the knife at the perfect moment. Additionally, don't short the bottom! The risk/reward for shorting at $6k is not in your favor. The risk/reward for shorting at $7k and higher was in your favor. The risk/reward for placing a long near $6k AFTER we dip below IS in your favor. Keep this in mind over the next week or two. (Note, I'm saying IF you place a long around $6k to wait until after a fast selloff/dip.) Now, go have a beer, sweet tea, shandy, cigar, tequila, fosters, or whatever your summertime preference is because summer is ending, enjoy what is left of it! - DA Bear (wondering if my horns are starting to emerge...) p.s. - A 5% failure on the ABCDE would still make the triangle valid and place us near $5.5k.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DIGITAL-ALPHA