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Massive Alpha To Be Found In This Chicken Spread!So this spread revolves around the simple, brutal strength that we are seeing in the economy right now. People are spending huge amounts of money on eating out right now, and given the ISM and UMCSI numbers I don't see that slowing down any time soon. Here, we pit a strong, cyclical restaurant chain specializing in chicken against a weak, defensive, consumer staples that is losing market share and in the worst spot from a macro perspective. This one's an easy winner. I was in this morning with a 3-1 R:R 40% target. Don't forget to hedge out those betas! Cheers, Andrew
NASDAQ:WINGLong
by wolneyaa
ISM Play With Massive Alpha And Lots More To ComeSo this play is a complex spread that pits a strong machinery company and a strong retail / cons. disc. company against two weak chemical makers. While the play may initially not make much sense, the alpha here is generated from the comments that companies in these sectors made in the last ISM and NMI reports. Expected weakness in chemicals as input prices increase, and expected strength in consumer spending and capital investment by manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms alike. This spread is pitted perfectly for the current environment and is efficient as I could make it. I was in this morning @ 11.97, and plan to hold for an expected 30% upside from here. My stop on this one remains around 11. I may write some OTM calls on my longs here to even further increase the value here. DO NOT FORGET TO BETA-HEDGE. Cheers, Andrew
NASDAQ:POOLLong
by wolneyaa
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE - A Nasdaq HedgeGood day everyone! DA Bull here with a quick big picture discussion. The Nasdaq 100 is known as the "tech-index". It is composed of over 3,000 companies and took a major hit during the dot com bubble. However, we are finding the NASDAQ at historic levels once again. When a price hits historic levels that does not mean sell. You will never hear DA Bull say sell for that reason. In this case, I would strongly encourage folks to consider the risk/reward. World debt is at $164 Trillion. U.S. Corporate debt is over $6.4 Trillion. Rates are rising. Inflation is rising. Without getting into how historical these levels of debt are, the fact remains many debts will be refinanced soon. With those 4 facts above, we can expect profit margins of major companies to lessen over the coming years. The companies with the most debts accrued during these fiscally friendly times - with the debts still on the books - will feel the rate hikes the most. Keep in mind I'm not here to talk about systemic risk or preach to you that the sky is falling...I'm here just to discuss risk/reward. Simply based on this small viewpoint and comparing the similarities of the NASDAQ 100 right now to the NASDAQ 20 years ago, you will see a very similar patter. It would appear, based on history (which doesn't repeat itself, but tends to rhyme), that we are very close to the peak. Since 2010 the NASDAQ has given 4x returns. That is pretty spectacular. How much more can an investor expect? I'm not sure, but another 25%+ is probably off the table, unless the peak has a very VERY tall wick. In saying all this, technology stocks have proven to be great investments. The largest tech companies have almost single handedly moved the S&P the last several months. For those tech lovers, have a look at Bitcoin. Blockchain and cryptocurrency is the future. Bitcoin has been nearing a low and can prove to be a great hedge over the next few years as many go up in arms with the amount of debt in the system. - DA Bear -
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
1
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE - BTC "Double Three" ScenarioHello everyone and happy weekend! DA Bull here giving you guys a quick scenario to think of as we start zoning in on $6k once again. Most folks following TA here on Tradingview realize that $6k is a major support. Most folks have gone super bearish since that ascending wedge drop from $7400. If you have been following our "Time for Tea" write-up, the drop would not have surprised you one bit. (You can check it out below where we are still publishing updates.) Here at Digital Alpha we have been long-term bullish (1 year), mid-term bearish (1 month), and short -term bearish/sideways (1 week). We might be flipping the mid-term and short-term soon, but as of now we are waiting to see the next move - likely a test near the $6k region. If we go up from here there's a good chance for $6600 (even $6900!), which will still keep our models all valid. The "Double Three" is the chart today. This is an WXY elliot wave pattern that ends with an ABCDE triangle for the "Y" portion. During the last run BTC had, this was the pattern that existed. However, we then had some sideways movement after the ABCDE breakout. The sideways movement can lead to the "X" and "Z" we have question marks next to. We leave that possibility wide open. If we see a WXYXZ then that would be a "Triple Three". Without getting too technical and creating confusion, the take home message is this might be a bottom coming up. The price movement after the bottom does not lead to a paraBULLic run, so no need to go crazy yet. Good entries is the name of the game here. I say good entries because risk/reward is something to consider. If $6k is the bottom and you start entering near $6k, then you have obviously gotten a great entry for the next run - AND this is something we can safely expect. If $5.5k occurs (we have been looking at $5.5k near Sept 20-24th for several months now - again read "Time for Tea") then your $6k entry still looks great. Sure you can try to catch the wick, but you might miss the quick rebound. Even more bearish scenarios exist of $4.5k and lower, but in the next run will you kick yourself for entering at $6k? No. You might kick yourself for entering above $10k though! Keep in mind that going to $4.5k and lower during a fast selloff will most likely last just a few hours. The major wick that pierced $6k in early 2018 only lasted a few hours. Were you asleep? Were you out to dinner? Were you at work in a meeting? Did you have access to your trading platform!? Try to realize that the chance for you to make a trade during that time frame was small. Now, what happened afterwards? Very fast price rise. Moral to the story, consider what an entry at these levels will mean several months from now. Don't try to be the guy that catches the knife at the perfect moment. Additionally, don't short the bottom! The risk/reward for shorting at $6k is not in your favor. The risk/reward for shorting at $7k and higher was in your favor. The risk/reward for placing a long near $6k AFTER we dip below IS in your favor. Keep this in mind over the next week or two. (Note, I'm saying IF you place a long around $6k to wait until after a fast selloff/dip.) Now, go have a beer, sweet tea, shandy, cigar, tequila, fosters, or whatever your summertime preference is because summer is ending, enjoy what is left of it! - DA Bear (wondering if my horns are starting to emerge...) p.s. - A 5% failure on the ABCDE would still make the triangle valid and place us near $5.5k.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE - Cheap LTC for saleHello everyone and happy weekend! DA Bull here giving you an update on one of the best investment coins, LTC. Most of us know Litecoin Foundation has just received an offer for 9.9% ownership of W.E.G. bank in Germany (most don't know the option exists to acquire another 80% for 90% ownership! link here ). We can thank Charlie for the foundation having enough $$ to pull off a move like that. In addition to the bank news, Litecoin is constantly making headlines on companies adopting litecoin: Coinbase's shift Visa card, Wirex, TenX, and alza.ca were just some tidbits over the last month. Litecoin is a solid add to any portfolio, but acquiring at the lowest price will obviously lead to greater profits. This chart shows the potential drop LTC might have if BTC continues in this direction. The price point shown here is $58. Remember when LTC was $35 and that was big news? Who knew we would be close to 100% retracement from there. Keep enjoying your weekend! DA BULL
BITFINEX:LTCUSDShort
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
DIGITAL ALPHA HODL, AUGUR - EARN SOME REPUTATIONWhat is up everyone! I am here with a pick that has great utility. When we at Digital Alpha look for solid tokens to hodl, we think of two things. 1) Will the product benefit from being a security? OR 2) Will this application be adopted? Notice I did not say, is this the best project of its kind? What matters at this time in the crypto world is how much use will a platform see or how much volume can this security generate. When thinking of Augur, many can see its use very quickly. Augur is a predictions platform and anybody can set up their own "project". However, when I see something like this, I think of the recent success of Draft Kings. Draft Kings uses a subset of analytics and users draft a team to see if they picked the best players for that weekend, meaning it boils down to a predictive market. This type of application built using the Augur platform will be a huge hit...and this is just one example. Others use natural disasters, market crashes, or political elections to name a few. With Augur, the fundamentals are there, which is the first step in deciding if a token is worth accumulating a position in. (I'm writing this piece, part of the HODL posts, because many lose sight of investing when checking out cryptocurrencies. Many tend to go where the action is - EOS for a recent example. EOS was great for making quick money, but you can also get burned quick. For those that look to invest, follow the HODL series, not the quick picks.) Second step is entry. Looking at the chart here we see Augur is consolidating. In fact, Augur's chart is less volatile than most. We don't see the typical bubble chart - pump, distribution, blowoff, markdown, accumulation. In fact, Augur is following eth/btc pretty closely (on btc and usd pairings). The magenta box is drawn to help show the general trend of price in that area. Price tends to oscillate here and use this area as support or resistance. When price enters from above we tend to test this area as support and steam roll through. Same goes when price approaches this area from below. We are currently dropping in from above, so history would say, we are headed down. The TINY volume spike seen on the couple days leading up to its platform release is a bearish sign for me as well. We typically expect very high volume before such an anticipated event. General market sentiment is also bearish. So why mention Augur in the first place?? Price has dipped down to the 0.236 fib level of the previous high/low each time, which places us around 0.0043 this time around. Many believe BTC's sentiment might change any week and I'm not sure I completely agree yet. Once we get closer to August 10th's (which will most likely be crickets) decision for an ETF approval (or eventual postponement of a SEC comment), we will see if the bull run is upon us. Regardless, the chart reads price might track up after the tiny dip here. MACD supports this since we are starting to form a horizontal top triangle pattern. An upward breakout on MACD would be bullish here. Keep REP on your sights and watch for movement around 0.0043. Things to look out for are volume and MACD movement upwards. Regardless, placing some buys just below 0.0043 would be wise for a long-term move. Hope you enjoyed this first installment in the HODL series. Other HODL like calls that I've discussed outside of the top 5 previously are NEO, ICX, IOTA, XLM. Have a great week! DA BULL
RLong
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE NEO - NEO can't stop the bulletsWhat up everyone! Happy Saturday, hope this finds you well. This one is pretty quick here. We have the candles on the 1 day timeframe. NEO keeps entering this pivotal area shown in the magenta box. You can see price changed direction at this point 8 separate times. We are about to hit that area now. Note when price entered this area quickly from above, price plowed through into the lower magenta box. This will be a move to look out for in the next few days. As a trader, if price bounces at the 0.0044 area then I'd be considering an entry. Price might very well reverse at 0.0055 (top magenta box). Either way, wait for the reversal to be confirmed before making a move, else you are just getting stabbed trying to catch a falling knife...or for the corny punch lines, getting shot instead of matrix like dodging of bullets. DA BULL
Short
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
DIGITAL ALPHA HODL, FUNFAIR - Time to place your betIf you don't know FunFair: coindigo.io Man I love this stuff...hope you enjoy! Fundamentals: How popular is online mobile app gaming? Zynga's Poker had 6.5m daily users in 2012. This was the latest stat I could find. It is said this app still has millions of users daily...and that was in 2012. More people have access to smartphones than ever before. When discussing a utlity token's success, the economy surrounding the token is paramount. For FunFair, we need to figure out how much of an economy might occurr around the token. Therefore, knowing how many people might be using the token would seem like a good place to start. Also, seeing the revenue generated from a top app would be helpful as well. From Zynga's 2011 Annual Report, revenue from Zynga Poker in 2011 was $159.8m. Translate that into token usage and we are already putting a $0.03 price tag on each FunFair token ($160m / FunFair circulating supply 5B). Yes, this is assuming Zynga keeps all $160m in FunFair and does not sell the token, but keep in mind this is just revenue. This is not taking into account the amount of tokens being held by a user, by a speculator, or by the company itself. Now, if each user has $10 in their account and never loses any money (a user on a top 50 game between 345-54 years old during a 6 month period spends $87.68-145.28 for in app purchases - stat from NPD Group)...and we ONLY look at Zynga's Texas Hold'em with 10 million monthly users, that is $100m in the FunFair token economy. Many will say to me that whales and speculators will drive the price down, but I will say, so what. When you start to have users buying the token daily, cashing in daily, the 'bottom' will be much higher in price than a whale can drive it down. Now, we are all new to setting a value to a crypto token, and I'm beginning to consider modeling utility tokens for my subscribers, so I'm open to any suggestions out there...and I figure FunFair is a good token to begin figuring this out for. So let's attempt to figure the potential FunFair has within the $45.86B (2017) online gambling market. Let us get CRAZY conservative and say FunFair is a flop with 5million users across ALL FunFair's games (keep in mind Zynga can use FunFair's technology), each user has an average of $10 in their account, the company holds 25% of their revenue (say revenue was $10m across ALL games) in the token, and speculators are not involved at all. This means the FunFair economy is worth a whopping $52.5m, 50% of the current market cap of FunFair ($117m as of this writing). Not bad. CRAZY conservative you would be looking at $0.01 per token (current price is just over $0.02). If we get optimistic and boost those numbers to 100million users (candy crush topped out at 350m monthly for perspective), each user has $50 in their account, and revenue is boosted to $250m (still 25% in the token)...we now are looking at an economy of over $5B...$1 a token. That might be the far end of the spectrum. However, not all users will be holding $150 simultaneously, FunFair might never be part of a top 50 app, and companies using FunFair might not ever keep their tokens in FunFair. So this is difficult to place guesstimates on. Technicals: Market sentiment is bearish so we can expect alt prices to drop. When FunFair has historically broken the uptrend (white support line) that forms during a small bump up in volume, we fall to the next support. If this pattern hold we will be looking at price between 0.0000034 and 0.0000030. Even if price drops more from here - very likely since volume is still dropping, this would still be a good entry. On the flip side MACD and Stoch RSI are getting ready for an uptrend - historically price has risen during these movements. Again, this is a HODL call, not a quick pick. Have a great weekend, thank you for reading! Please comment on how I can improve my analysis on a utility token like FunFair. DA BULL
FLong
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
DIGITAL ALPHA BTC - HODL TIL $53,000!This is the type of analysis I enjoy more than runny eggs on a jellied biscuit - while on vacation. that is some serious enjoyment. The past week was spent scouring through various stock charts, ETFs, benchmarks, and more. It was not until I stumbled into commodities did I start to see the type of pattern I was on the hunt for. Gold rung the bell harder than any other chart. In fact, there is no better comparison better for BTC than GOLD. Gold is mined and the more you mine it, the more it costs to get the next unit of gold (diminishing rate of return). Same with BTC. Gold backed/was the peg to our monetary system. BTC is the pegged currency to our decentralized economy system. Gold and BTC have limited quantities (unless you have the philosopher's stone!)...and MOST importantly we denote them both with the color yellow. This list can go on for a while, so I'll end the boredom since we are all here for chart analysis, not philosophical talk. (Random thought: Is Satoshi's middle name THOTH?) Above is the GOLD chart with the most history, starting in 1975. Around 1980 Gold went on a run similar to Bitcoin's run in 2017. The retracement and the accumulation phase show similar patterns as well. So I kept digging. Gold took off after ETFs began. There was some insider buying before this took place. The run was in full effect and did not stop until August 2011 at $1800. Wow. Gold's previous high was $700. Keep in mind the ability to buy Gold was limited before ETFs were available (note this is a futures chart and it took 3 years before Gold boomed). So new buyers ARE necessary to take Bitcoin higher. So the ETF is what we need to get to $50k Using fib levels from Gold's highest close to its lowest close (after the all time high) and using the 3.618 level, we hit $1800. Using this same methodology for BTC, we arrive at $53k. Also, there is rumor of an ETF coming in September 2018. This timeline matches up with the timing of when Gold's ETF happened, relative to its chart pattern. Now for some second level.. 2008 the financial crisis hit, stocks took a smashing, Gold stayed strong. In fact, after a quick correction Gold went parabolic to $1800. The reason I bring this up is the Dow Jones appears to be at a point where a markdown is on the horizon. We hit the ATH (26600) and now seem to be bouncing lower and lower with support at 23500 (higher volume happens during selloffs - bearish sign). If the Dow breaks 23500 you can expect a major correction. I'm not saying economic collapse or any of that, just a healthy correction. The fact that salaries are stagnant while the price of goods are rising alludes to this. Not to mention the savings rate is equal to interest rate..another harbinger..and some policies relating to US trade..one small bit of bearish news near the 23500 mark will take the price south quick. I bring this up because Bitcoin might be the gold during this period. Folks have been yearning for a new financial system ever since 2008. Fiat is backed by nothing, debt is rising to unfathomable levels, and accountability seems to be out the window. Bitcoin brings with it the potential to improve this situation and if we see Bitcoin (with an ETF) hold strong during a financial correction, fasten your seatbelts, we will be going parabolic. Keep in mind I tried to match up the peaks and valleys with gold. I had another alternative where the ETF might occur Q2 in 2019 and $50k just before 2020. I'll post a photo of that below just for your viewing pleasure..Mmmm biscuits Have a great day everyone. I will be updating this graph as time progresses during this accumulation period. My main focus will be bitcoin blockchain data. More specifically, volume of BTC moving across the blockchain. When insider buying occurs we will witness this on the blockchain, not the exchange. Seeing an uptick here will mean news of an ETF approval might be coming. DA BULL
COMEX:GC1!
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
18
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE BTC - Time for TeaHappy weekend everyone! After the short squeeze we all witnessed yesterday, I've come to a new conclusion on how I see BTC 2.56% playing out for the next 3-5 months. I will warn you, it is boring. Like major boring...So take some time, drink some tea, have a beer, sleep in, enjoy your summer, do not stress. Just position yourself for the long-haul and wait for the boom... So my new thinking is this. We will get less volatility and more sideways movement with squeezes in between. Next rejection at dashed blue line ($7750) will result in a test at the very long-term support of $5.5k. Most transactions will occur off the major exchanges in order for the squeezes to continue. Eventually we will start to see a cup formation happen. The major indication for a cup formation will be volume , BUT it won't be on exchanges. We need to start watching the blockchain to monitor volume . Once the various NEW players have substantial bags, we will start to hear the news. This news will be in the realm of ETF approval, brokerage services adding BTC 2.56% , aka anything that tells the public institutions approve. The angles with degrees shown within the pattern show the progression as well. The steepness is declining. After price hit support the action has lessened by 10 degrees each time. When price moved from the resistance the angle changed by 17 or 18 degrees. So using this continuation we arrive at about $7750 and then $5500. yawn... However, to prepare yourself for the next bull run we need to look at volume ...and looking at volume of BTC 2.56% being moved around will help with this. If anybody has a good way to measure this, please PM me. Enjoy the weekend! DA "bear" BULL
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
22
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE ETH - whETHER or not a bounce? Keep in mind, I DO try to make my titles as corny as possible... I published this chart since it is pretty straight forward and we are starting to see the alt market test new lows. As far as Ethereum goes, we are at a decision point. We have a long-term support (white dashed line trending up) and a solid support at the 0.382 fib level here. Let us wait for some volume with the uptick before we enter here. The entire market is very bearish right now, but keep in mind we usually go ultra bear before we see permaBull. As far as BTC goes, looking at $6.2k for next support to see what happens there. Take it easy ladies and gentlemen - DA BULL
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
DIGITAL ALPHA PRESENTS: "The Adventures of B"Welcome everyone to the greatest story ever told! This is the story of "B" and the journey to find "The Moon". The Adventures of B will be filled with many heartbreaks, conquests and heroic moments. We strongly advise those that proceed posses mental hodl fortitude, stoic trader like emotions, and mutual assured-ness of "the moon". If you choose to proceed, we welcome you with open arms. So let us go on this trek together and prepare ourselves to learn absolutely nothing. There will be no educational tutorials here, no elliot wave analysis, and no stop-loss discussion - unless the liquidation beast rekts all that cross its path! Each chapter will be displayed below (click the picture to go to the chapter). Think of this page as your "Table of Contents". Please click "follow" by my username in order to get updated as this story progresses! To open our story, let us see how B is doing... (sorry for double post, prev. chart was banned due to link, re-posted)
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
3
Chapter 1: Ominous Mt. GoxB found himself overlooking accumulation valley. He could not help but remember how he got to that point. He had successfully climbed Mt. Pamp and even ascended Mt. Gox. It was an arduous journey to the top, but his knowledge of what troubles were ahead still alluded him. Upon his descent of Mt. Gox B understood the courage that was needed to continue down this road. B had left his humble village of Metzdowd knowing many had traveled this same road, but never came back. Most of these travelers originated in the nearby town of Fiatville, but those stories are for another day. It was the descent of Mt. Gox when he knew his journey was unique. Upon his descent he triggered an avalanche and got dumped upon by endless bags of snow. It seemed like a legion had unleashed their bags simultaneously. In fact, the descent can better be described as a tumultuous nose dive. B found bottom, so he thought. Nonetheless he proceeded with heightened caution. From here on out, B knew this journey was strenuous. However, for the time being, he told himself all would be ok and any life threatening dangers were in the rear view mirror. Dusting himself off he ignored the local's celebration of the New Year because he did not believe in the lunar cycles, not to mention there was no time to rest. The base of the mountain afforded him no picnics. His trek would take him up switchbacks and back down into narrow valleys. February was near and B told himself this would be THE month. February was anything but smooth. What B was not aware of was the depth of the lake that resided from the snow melt of Mt. Gox in the distance. This lake was known to the locals as Karpeles. Legend had it the depth of Karpeles was so great that at certain spots it dove down to 0...down to sea level, but B shrugged it off. He knew it was just a myth for he was sky high. For B was headed to the moon! As B ventured near the lake he figured the name came from the large Carps seen near the surface, but in fact, the depth of the lake concealed something much more threatening. A Karpeles Japanese Killer Whale!! (Many folks question to this day the existence of freshwater killer whales, but I assure you this is not a myth.) The Karpeles Whale with only a small bit of its might slapped his tale on the surface and broke B's support bridge as he crossed. To B it was a tsunami of water! Getting wiped off the bridge B fell into the Lake...into the home of the Karpeles Whale. As B hit the surface he sank...and sank...and sank some more. Keeping his eyes open B noticed everything was dark, for light was not seen at these depths. It was here B believed his journey was coming to an end. His time at the peak of Mt. Pamp was for nothing and those in neighboring Fiatville would make B the butt of all their jokes. However, as B FOMO'd on himself and his future...and after the whale pushed B down to the deepest depths of the lake, B found a torrent of freshwater rising up from underground. As the spring gushed at the bed of the lake, B used its current to rise up to the surface! He was safe. B miraculously bypassed the dangers of Mt. Gox lake and figured he just hit rock bottom. B dusted himself off, looked forward, and continued. His stride was one of determination now. He persisted down the rocky foothills of Mt. Gox...and as he did, the hair on his neck would rise from the ominous shadow of Mt. Gox, as this shadow was constantly casting its darkness on his path. His time in the sun he believed would come again, but for now, his journey would be tied to that ominous structure.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
7
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE - AION, Quick Pick, Can you hold until 175%What is up everyone! Happy Weekend. You got to love the weekend, what is better!? Easy, charting for you. OK so I need to get this rounding bottom out of my system (I just did one with ICX), especially when it comes to the alliance with WAN, ICX, and AION. This alliance with these three projects will do wonders together, but for some reason AION has remained quite. AION is steadily rising and is showing under-bought on our RSI indicator right now on the 1 day candles. Price target for this trade is off the charts with 175% gains possible. Granted, that might take a while. The first target is 0.00072 where we will most likely bounce and form a handle. However, there are plenty of times when the price will bust right through, but that is a ways away. AION is not a pick for our large-cap. It's success is somewhat dependent on WAN and ICX, so we have enough exposure there. However, this can be a nice 2-3 week hold for some juicy btcs. Take care everyone, keep destroying the weekend per usual. DA BULL
ALong
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE BTC - Summer is coming, will BTC heat up?When I post I'll tend to only post if somebody asks me a question about the market or about a coin. This way I feel like I'm answering a few questions out in the social media abyss. So my boy "BM" had a question about why I thought this was a WXY pattern that we are in. So I outlined it in my previous post "BTC loves triangle dancing", link below. What I'm doing here is adding a long-term twist to that quick post. I want folks to understand how important this next sequence of events might be. I see several scenarios playing out and I will stay up to date on them within this post. Before laying them out, you'll see my reversal WXY pattern above. It is made up of an ABC downtrend (with two 12345 waves) forming the "W", then the minor bounce to form the "X", then an accumulation pattern/ABCDE pattern to complete the "Y". IF this plays out and we go north towards the blue dashed resistance, then we will start getting excited...meaning we 1) see BTC break right through 2) get rejected then breakthrough OR 3) get rejected big time. This last scenario is what we need to watch out for. IF we get a big rejection and head South, I'll start praying for the blue dashed line that has been acting as a support to catch mr btc. If we do, we will probably go sideways alllllll summer long. Looking back at previous BTC double top patterns (read link below titled "Warning your head will explode" for more information) when we didn't go bullish after a triple bottom, we went sideways or south. If we bust downward through our blue dashed support then I'll enter "PANIC" mode. With the lack of liquidity in btc, low volume, and lack of confidence (since breaking triple bottom support), we will get into some very low territories...but let's not get into that yet. So what are we looking for in order to break the blue dashed line. Pretty easy actually...during the rise if you see a major movement upwards in price when a good piece of news is published, get ready because the market is starting to turn into a bull. For now though, all good news as limited reaction to the market, which means I'll change my name momentarily... Signing off, DA Bear
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
5
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE LTC - Lite the Wick!Good Sunday everyone! I am happy to be here to write a quick update on LTC. I'm guessing everyone reading this is smashing the weekend as usual! Make the most out of them! Anyways, about the wicks. This trade is pretty dependent upon BTC. If you have been reading my posts on BTC/USD you can see I'm expecting a drop to mid $7s in the next week. Personally, I thought we would be grabbing the bull by the horns in late April, but this pattern has dragged on for a lot longer than expected. Come on already! Let's hope (for the Northern Hemisphere folks) summer brings the parade of the Bulls. When BTC is a bull, alts like to play. Little side tracked there. When BTC takes its drop, just as it has before, we should see LTC take a quick dive down to the range of 0.0149-0.0159 levels. If this occurs, we can expect a very fast move upwards to 0.02-0.025 levels. This would yield a 20-60% gain on BTC. This would be a great profit taking opportunity if you don't like to use Tether or USD in bear times. For a more long-term outlook, we would expect a quick rebound to 0.018 levels and would recommend a buy around there (after the 0.02+ sell). Then do what traders hate...HODL. Why? Well, we saw what CME did to BTC...we are about to see what will happen to ETH...what will be next??? LTC. That will be one of the most profitable moves to make on LTC for 2018 in my opinion. You do not want to miss that. So short-term, get ready to catch a wick, ride it for a quick sell. Catch it on the rebound. The key here is what happens with BTC. LTC is going sideways since BTC hasn't really moved much. Once we get a quick price movement, LTC will react. That's it for today. Keep enjoying the day! As always, come join our Telegram. We are building up numbers so we can bring ICO airdrops to you, start doing raffles, and keep everyone up to date on our Large-Cap portfolio, 50 LTC/BTC trades to $1M, and soon more! - DA BULL
Long
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
1
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE BTC - WhenBottom?What is up everyone! Hope you are having an awesome weekend per usual. Northern Hemisphere is enjoying the Spring time, which is the best time of the year. Who does not enjoy the freshness Spring brings? As for the Southern Hemisphere...maybe you should visit the North, just kidding of course. Every season as its pros. Ok, on to BTC. I was looking back at the late 2013 to early 2014 "bubble". Go ahead and tear me apart for saying bubble, but it is what it is. The asset was overvalued at the time and the price retracted quickly. I was hoping to glean some information from that timeframe to use going forward. In my previous post on fractals I brought up the triple bottom. This time I want us to look at the MACD . It is fairly straight forward. What is nice from this is that the tweezers candle formation in April 2014 was the 3rd bottom of this timeframe. However, we didn't see a quick rise like we would have anticipated. Instead the price came back down slowly with the MACD showing a nice divergence. That was the time for a low risk buy. So looking at today, where are we? We are looking for the 3rd bottom and are in the 3rd phase of the MACD progression. So the end is near...we hope! Past does not dictate the future, but gives us clues as to what might happen. That is all. So we use it for what it is worth and not blindly follow history. If the future is any indication of the past, we will expect a quick high volume sell off for the 3rd bottom, followed by a quick rise, then a slow low volume decline. When the MACD starts to flatten out, volume is very low, and we start seeing doji like candles, this would signal a great time to get into position. As for alts, a quick buck could be made on the quick rise, but know there is a hefty chance we are coming back down...slowly. So get in and out quick with tight stop losses - know your exit before you enter if your trade goes south. The best altcoins will be the ones with the most volume . Think of your EOS, IOTA, OMGs...think the alts that have seen big volume within the last 2-3 weeks. As always, keep showing the weekend who is the boss! Join our telegram as well. We are building up our subscribers so we can bring you free ICO airdrops. When this starts happening we will be conducting free LTC raffles, hardware wallet giveaways, and more! Not to mention we try to give live-time educational portfolio management with Large-Cap portfolio management, 50 LTC/BTC trades to $1M, and soon a Small-Cap portfolio as well. DA BULL
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
1
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE - BTC loves triangle dancingHello everyone! It has been some time since an update here from Digital Alpha. There was some family business to attend to, glady it was joyous "business". Now that things have calmed down a bit I'm able to write up a quick BTC update. Now this is more of a "potential" scenario. If you followed the last update on the Triangle Dance you can see Digital Alpha developed a solid road map. We laid out the potential scenarios and the one we said was "most likely" did play out. Hopefully you enjoyed some solid gains there. This play is only one scenario. An accumulation ABCDE triangle. ABCDE triangles are mostly made up of ABC patterns, which is outlined in blue. Before entering this pattern BTC was in an ABCDE pattern, BUT it broke down - continuation of the previous trend. Technically speaking, the continuation of this larger triangle (white ABCDE) would result in a plummet to sub $6k levels. However, the overall trend of the ABCDE is trending up a bit. Due to this, we can expect a bounce off the blue hashed support around $7.6k levels and move towards a breakout. If we fall below, then that is when you can have your sights set on $6k. IF we do bounce off support and breakout look for a retest of $10k levels...if so, it will happen fast. The scenario I laid out in the previous post where we test $10k, bounce, test the blue hashed line (previous resistance) as support, will potentially play out. Hopefully this gives you a fresh outlook on BTC! From your friends at Digital Alpha, thank you for reading. - DA BULL As always, please join our telegram. We are building up our followers to give access to ICO airdrops and to start doing raffles. We also keep track of our Large-Cap portfolio so you can see how to manage a crypto portfolio.
BITMEX:XBT
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
16
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE - BTC The Triangle DanceWhat is up everyone! BTC is a little indecisive which is causing alts to cool off a little. This means we need to figure out what is going on with bitcoin! So, what is up? (TLDR: Read it, otherwise I'll tell you up, then down, but maybe down then up...) Several things need to be addressed to give folks a good prep for the week ahead. To give you a quick summary, BTC appears to be in a symmetrical triangle, which allows for a continuation of the previous trend if the pattern does not fail - therefore, price needs to break out of the triangle upwards. The overhead resistance around $10k is a major hurdle and is what most traders are waiting for. That is it in a nutshell. So the long story... The chart on the left is based on 1hr candles. You can see the symmetrical triangle with 2 touches on the top and 2 touches on the bottom. Volume is showing a decreasing trend on the bottom. Combining this with lower highs and higher lows, we have ourselves looking at a triangle. There are 4 possibilities, which are all outlined in the chart above. If the price drops below the lower resistance AND only drops less than 5% THEN goes up, we have a very profitable trade forming. Closing positions would be recommended around the $10k resistance. Two other scenarios are what we would expect with this formation. One breaks upwards and climbs, the other bounces down, back up and breaks upwards. Both would give validity towards this formation with similar closes around $10k. The last possibility is a failed formation and bitcoin dropping down past the 5% mark. This would be a "get out" moment and wait for 8.1k or less. I keep referring to the $10k mark and in order to explain we need to look at the chart on the right. It is a 1 day candle chart. Bitcoin is oversold and based on the chart on the left we are showing a likelihood of price rising. We are checking all the boxes for an upward scenario. So the next checkpoint to look at is for overhead resistance, which is that $10k mark. We have two touches on this blue hashed line, meaning we have overhead resistance formed. Lower support is $6.5k. This is our current range and if price tests $10k be aware that a re-visit to $6.5k will be in the cards. Look at my previous write ups using fractals throughout Bitcoin history as to why a triple bottom is very likely! ( Click Here ) This should help you trade for the next week. Alts are pretty much hands off at the moment unless traders gain more confidence in bitcoin price. This would require a breaking of $10k and testing that blue hashed line as support...let's hope for this. A $10k break a re-test as support would make this Bear a full on BULLLL. - DA BULL signing off. Don't forget to share, thumbs up, and join our telegram. We are up over 60% on the month on our educational portfolio. We try to show how to successfully manage a Large-Cap Portfolio in cypto-land - something nobody else does.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
3
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE - NEO for Large-Cap Portfolio, 10%Quick update. NEO seems to be heading into a bull pennant formation. We have been wanting to add NEO to our large-cap portfolio since the start. NEO looks to be getting ready for a climb. We will be setting a buy around 0.0815 (using 10% of our portfolio's allocation - about 19.5 NEO) and watching for the bounce off the lower support (black line). After we get a successful bounce we will set a stop loss at 0.0805. IF NEO is successful in a breakout we will be selling 10% of the NEO purchase into BTC at 0.0095. If NEO gets a hard rejection than our stop-loss will be in place. We will be posting our portfolio charts in the telegram channel shortly. Take care everyone! - DA Bull
Long
by DIGITAL-ALPHA