Pox Vaccine/Treatment Long, Dark WinterWith the small rise of pox news going on in the U.S., be it the second case of monkeypox this year , to smallpox vials found at a vaccine research facility in Pennsylvania, it brings to question as to whether or not health companies that have the capability to manufacture vaccines, treatments, and test kits against smallpox will be the new growth sector of vaccine stocks in the future.
Although smallpox is considered eradicated since 1980, considering other variants of smallpox like monkeypox are still present in this world and the lack of immunity among the young (people under the age of 35) from the closure of smallpox vaccine production (we're talking about a ~ 15% fatality rate that goes up to ~40% the younger a person is ), it is still a clear and present danger to society. Doesn't help that the FDA has been more active in approving multiple vaccines and treatments over the last 3 years. . Though the good news is that the Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasures Enterprise (PHEMCE) will target to stockpile enough vaccines for every American according to a 2016 report .
PREVENTION
As of my knowledge, the following stocks hold a trademark of a vaccine against smallpox:
- $EBS, ACAM2000 ®
- $BVNRY, holds a trademark of a vaccine against monkeypox, named JYNNEOS® under the FDA . For tradenames of this vaccine under other regions, see the investor news page published this july .Note the JYNNEOS vaccine is the only currently FDA-approved vaccine for the prevention of monkeypox disease and smallpox. These vaccines are not readily available to public, but several treatments are ... more on that below.
- $SNY, the Aventis Pasteur Smallpox Vaccine (APSV), that is available in the event that ACAM2000® is depleted within the U.S. Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) which apparently holds 90M doses . Note Aventis was merged with Sanofi in 2004, just to clear up any confusion on any old web pages from before 2004.
More details about these vaccines can be found here:
www.cdc.gov
www.cdc.gov
www.fda.gov
You could argue $NVAX to be a good pick but I would consider it a long-term play.
TREATMENTS
The following stocks hold a trademarked treatment against smallpox:
- $SIGA , TPOXX® , also known as tecovirimat and ST-246®
- $CMRX , Tembexa (brincidofovir)
There are many more companies working on treatments/detections against smallpox, so feel free to research and find them before they go public. This idea is merely an inspiration for you to look for and capitalize on this opportunity if it presents itself in the future.
Take BioFire as an example, a private company contracted by the DoD to supply them test kits on various biological warfare agents including smallpox . ( Pg 105 of 2016 Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasures Enterprise (PHEMCE) Strategy and Implementation Plan). But although there private, they've merged w/ bioMerieux , a publicly-traded company, in January 2014. In the event that the supply of vaccines does meet demand, this could be an alternative strategy seeing as test detection kits may not be in demand at the moment. Especially considering that the awarded NGDS contract was valued at $240M for a period of 8 years, or $30M per year(which corresponds very closely with how much $ was allocated toward JOINT BIOLOGICAL AGENT DECONTAMINATION SYSTEM (JBADS) according to the UNCLASSIFIED Department of Defense Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 Budget Estimates document released in May this year on Page 2 of 91, P-1 line #80 titled CB Protection & Hazard Mitigation, or just page 142 of 754 of the pdf doc). With each kit costing $8K-$9k each for 30 tests , at max the DoD should hold ~30K kits assuming these kits have not been used and have an extended shelf life beyond the lifetime of the awarded gov. contract, and that this budget does not include any other products from BioFire related to the NGDS. 30K units with 30 tests each means 900,000 total possible tests... if they're single-use, it may not be even enough for essential personnel contracted by the gov. Even if you consider smallpox's eradication... it is not reasonable for the gov to spend a bit more on these kits seeing they cover detection on outbreaks outside of smallpox like anthrax, ebola, etc.
Thankfully Bill Gates did warn us of bioterror attacks concerning smallpox earlier this year. The same goes for U.S. Government agencies and institutions' wargaming of such an event back in 2001, naming the exercise, Dark Winter .
A couple of interesting conclusions from this exercise:
-No surge capacity in U.S. healthcare and public health systems. Given how COVID-19 went, not too surprising but as expected
-Information management w/ media be crucial for crisis control. Lol, w/ the amount of distrust in the media and gov. this will be sh*tshow. Don't be surprised by draconian levels of control over the flow of info if this outbreak happens.
-Renewed vaccine production is estimated to require at least 24-36 months. Big yikes.
If a smallpox breakout does happen and vaccine hesitancy continues w/ smallpox vaccines, let alone the supply of these products not being able to catch up to their demand, expect a high amount of casualties and stocks related to the treatment rather than the prevention of smallpox to rise. Nonetheless, the living will be capable of seeing a new and brighter world of the 4th industrial revolution by 2030.
Feel free to comment below on any constructive criticism against this idea. I'd like to strengthen it and improve on the quality of future ideas. If my grammar is bad, it is no excuse, but I was raised with poor primary education, it will get better with time. If you agree with this idea, feel free to leave a like and share, thank you.
