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The Week Ahead: BitcoinScenario A: The move lower looks more favourable at this level as the market is between 0.382 and 0.618 retracement levels for a while now. The price action is confirmed by breaking the Parabolic and the HMA crossover to the downside. Should the market break the 0.618 level, we could see Bitcoin go to 3578 and potentially 3472. Scenario B: Price rejects 0.618 and breaks through the 0.382 trading back to the 4000 level. This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation, buy/sell signal, or advice in any format.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by AlphaexCapital
The Week Ahead: S&P500Last week we discussed the possibility of the market moving towards and breaking the 2800 level which would confirm a 100% retracement back from the recent move lower. Scenario A: The Linear Regression is still showing a positive moving mean, which is encouraging for the SPX. In Scenario A, we could see the market continue to move towards it's mean, which also suggests a break above the 2815 level. This is significant because of the previous two highers were created at this level. Should it break, this shows that the market's buyers are still in control. With the NFP this Friday, plus other economic factors, we could see a positive run for the SPX this week. This will be reaffirmed by the break to the upside of the Parabolic levels too. Scenario B: Market is held tightly at the 2815 level and retraces downwards again towards 2740, 2720. Should this happen it would mean it's broken out of the Linear Regression channel and broker the Parabolic levels. Should the HMAs crossover to the downside, this too encourages the Scenario B to hit the mentioned levels. This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation, buy/sell signal, or advice in any format.
SP:SPXEducation
by AlphaexCapital
The Week Ahead: EURUSDThe 0.618 retracement level held and the price broke the Parabolic SAR levels as discussed last week. The market played out with Scenario A and continued to sell off towards the 1.3000 level. This week we have NFP data released which will give the EURUSD a push. Scenario A: Continued strength in the USD could see the market move lower than 1.3000 and head towards to the structure low of 1.1235. For it to get to that level, it must also trade lower than it's support level at 1.1250 which has been held there since November 2018. Should it continue further, then we are looking at the 1.1188 and 1.1129 levels. Scenario B: Should momentum change and Euro strengthens then we could see two key support areas the lower 0.618 retracement level and the 1.1250 support. If the market moves lower then we will look out for a retracement from these areas. Should Scenario B playout then it is reasonable to predict that price levels of 1.1340 would be tested as a resistance level. This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation, buy/sell signal, or advice in any format.
Education
by AlphaexCapital
The Week Ahead: S&P500Continuing on from last weeks analysis, the levels still hold. Scenario A: We've seen a couple of hammer candlestick formations form on our temporary support level last week and the price reacted trading higher. The price is currently trading below the mean, which is positive as price wants to drift back towards it. We could see the market move to the 2800 level if price pierces this level and closes - we could see the market trade higher, upwards to 2900 level. If price regains this level we could see it continue to 2924 which is the 1.212 extension level highlighted and coincides with the largest swing high since October 2018. Scenario B: Depending on factors other than price action and technical analysis, the price could reverse at the 2800 level, we would then be watching if the price breaks our support level (red line). If the price does reverse as such, we could see it reach the 0.612 level (2717). This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation, buy/sell signal, or advice in any format.
SP:SPX
by AlphaexCapital
The Week Ahead: EURUSDThe EURUSD has been trading between a range of 1.1250 and 1.1470, with only a couple of breakout attempts. Scenario A: On the 4 Hr chart we can see momentum looks to return downwards as the 0.382 level has held and the price is now trading below it. In addition, we see that price has traded below its parabolic level and the 20/50 HMA has crossed to the downside. All factors of a change in near-term direction. We see the market moving lower to 1.1300 as it's the nearest level then it could continue to fall lower from the retracement to 1.1250. Especially if it breaks the recent higher low of 1.1316. Scenario B: If the reversal is not strong enough, or data comes out to suggest Euro strength, then opportunities lie from the price breaking 1.1375. The factors include that the market structure remains intact - higher highs and lower highs - price is still strong enough to continue higher and price could break the parabolic level which could potentially form around 1.1375. This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation, buy/sell signal, or advice in any format.
by AlphaexCapital
The Week Ahead: GoldGold has been on a strong run this year. Right now, there was a shooting star candlestick at 2019's high. This indicates a shift in momentum that could pull the price lower. We see that it is currently trading above its trends mean level, which again signals a change in direction. Scenario A: A move lower. We expect the market to potentially continue to fall lower towards it's mean, which we have $1,311.90 as an area that may support the price. Should the market's selling pressure continue then we should see gold fall as low ~$1,280. Scenario B: A retracement higher. The recent price action could all be a small reversal and could allow an opportunity to buy into the larger overall bullish trend of 2019. IF the price continues to rise and trades above $1,329 then we could see the markets move higher towards the $1,355 level. This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation, buy/sell signal, or advice in any format.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AlphaexCapital
The Week Ahead: WTI OilOil is currently trading between the 0.382 and 0.618 fib levels which indicates a chance of a reversal back lower. Scenario A: Oil continues with it's run, as the 20 Day HMA has crossed above the 50 Day HMA which shows bullish momentum. With this momentum, we could see the market rise towards the $63.83 level. Price is also trading above it's mean in the regression channel tool. If this price is reached and continues further then we have an indication that the buyers are in full control and expect further resistance around the $64.33 level. Scenario B: We see oil's retracement levels kick in between the 0.382 and 0.618. If the market turns and trades lower than the 0.382 level ($55.59) then this signals a retracement targetting back to the 2018 year lows of $42.34. We have near term support at $50.44 should price pierce the 0.382 level. This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation, buy/sell signal, or advice in any format.
FX:USOIL
by AlphaexCapital
The Week Ahead: S&P500S&P500 has enjoyed a strong upward move in 2019. We see that it has continued to make higher highs and lower highs which is positive for the S&P500, yet we approach a trendline that was created by a sloping triple top which has held strong since October. Should the price penetrate this line, $2776, then we could see a continued move upwards for the S&P500. Plotted with the Linear Regression tool, we can also see an agreement that the price has traded back to it's mean, which also adds confluence to the trade as the mean and the breakout level are the same. Should the S&P500 open positive this week, we could see the market break the level and make its move upwards to breaking the $2800 level. Continuing higher up, we could see it reach as high as $2925-$2945. However, if the price doesn't continue and the trendline resists the market, plus the price reverts away from the mean lower, then we could see a move lower towards the $2718 level. This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation, buy/sell signal, or advice in any format.
SP:SPXEducation
by AlphaexCapital
The Week Ahead: FTSE 100FTSE 100 broke a major downtrend lend to the upside on January 30th 2019 and has continued to push higher. With Brexit looming over, it is a volatile time for the UK and Eurozone participants. The recent fib extension indicates that the FTSE 100's move higher could continue to the 127.2% level, 7311, which can make further headway back to a full 100% retracement 7552, which coincides with the extensions 161.8% level. If the FTSE 100 continues, this near term price targets look likely. However, it is possible to retrace lower and reverse its recent gains and breakout of the downtrend with potential price levels of 7165 and 6923. We will be watching the 6923 levels closely if the downside scenario plays out. This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation, buy/sell signal, or advice in any format.
TVC:UKXEducation
by AlphaexCapital
The Week Ahead: BitcoinBitcoin's recent surge upwards, which saw the 2019 trendline break, saw last week's trading stagnate. With the surge, we can see a bullish flag pattern and as of Friday's session close, a small breakout had occurred. This could mean that Bitcoin could continue to rise should it breakout further of the flag formation. This breakout also closed above a significant resistance level of $3693. The reaction at the 38.2% fib level suggested that the previous move upwards wasn't strong enough to push higher. Now with a breakout above as mentioned, it could be possible that Bitcoin could move upwards to $4013 level. Alternatively, if the 38.2% level holds and the flag pattern fails, then we could see a move down towards the 2019 low of $3405. Should this low break and we continue the trend of 2019 then it is possible for the price to reach the 127.2% or 161.8% levels, $3240 and $3029 respectively. This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation, buy/sell signal, or advice in any format.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by AlphaexCapital
The Week Ahead - EURUSDThe week ahead looks positive for the EURO as Friday's close saw a Hammer Candlestick form on the support level generated from June 2017. Near term, fib levels suggest that we will see some stalling or reversals between the 38.2% (1.1344) and 61.8% (1.1411) levels. Should we see price continue to rise opportunity lies ahead to run the course to the 100% level, 1.1518. Should it also break the near term resistance level at 1.1455. Conversely, if the 38.2% and 61.8% levels hold and a retrace begins, breaking the June 2017 support level could see price action taking it to roughly 1.1184 to 1.1123 respectively. Fundamental factors to include in these scenarios: ECONOMIC DATA FLOW: Tuesday: German ZEW Economic Statement Wednesday: German PPI, US FOMC Meeting Minutes Thursday: German Final CPI, French Final CPI, French PMIs, German PMIs, Eurozone PMIs Friday: Draghi Speaks This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation, buy/sell signal, or advice in any format.
Education
by AlphaexCapital