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Alsi40

Investec looking strong for upside to R126.66W Formation formed (small but evident). The price has broken above the neckline, showing strong buying and demand. The indicators look good for upside on the peripheral. 7>21 - bullish Price>200MA RSI>50 1st Target R126.66 ABOUT: Investec Limited was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. Investec is a diversified financial services company, offering a range of products and services including asset management, wealth management, and specialist banking. The company operates in three main geographies: South Africa, the United Kingdom, and Australia. Investec has a strong reputation for innovation and has been recognized for its entrepreneurial approach to financial services. In 2020, Investec had a revenue of ZAR 23.3 billion (approximately USD 1.7 billion) and employed over 10,000 people worldwide.
JSE:INLLong
by Timonrosso
Anglo American PLatinum setting for upside potential to R1,644Potential Cup and Handle is forming on the daily. We are seeing higher lows form and the supply side is dwindling. Once we get a break above the brim level, it'll be all systems go. 7>21 Price <200 - Bearish RSI>50 -bullish Target R1,644.61 SMC: Sell Side Liquidity order block has formed below the formation. Each time the price touches, it runs up. That's because Smart Money comes in sweeps the selling from (Shorters) and long traders who gets stopped. They buy into the orders, which push the price up. This gives bullish bias.
JSE:AMSLong
by Timonrosso
TARGET REACHED: Sappi struck through the first price of R40.60Symmetrical Triangle formed on Sappi, the price broke below the apex and the price chose the bias of down. We had other indicators showing bearishness such us. 200>21>7 - Bearish RSI<50- Bearish Target reached at R40.60 The trend is still down and we will need the next formation to form before we decide what to do next. I'll keep you updated. ABOUT Sappi Limited was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. Sappi's name is derived from its original name, South African Pulp and Paper Industries Limited. (Also think of SAP from a tree I guess). The company was founded in South Africa in 1936 as a state-owned enterprise and was later privatized in the 1990s. The name Sappi was adopted in 1997 when the company underwent a rebranding exercise as part of its global expansion strategy. The company is listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker symbol "SPP". Sappi is a leading global producer of dissolving wood pulp, paper pulp, and paper-based solutions. The company has operations in North America, Europe, and Southern Africa, with customers in over 150 countries. Sappi produces a range of products, including graphic papers, packaging and speciality papers, and pulp. In 2020, Sappi launched a new product range called Sappi Verve, which is a compostable barrier paper designed for use in food packaging.
JSE:SAPShort
by Timonrosso
Daily Bias - JSE ALSI 40 - BULLISHWe ended the week on an awful note with resources dropping over 4%, with gaps down and with sudden breakaway trends. Looking at the bigger picture of the ALSI 40, we still remain with Bullish Bias. 7>21>200 RSI>50 And we seem to be making a Falling Flag, which needs to break up. Also with SMC, it's early days but we have the first level of liquidity (Sell Side Liquidity) where hopefully Smart Money has come swept the sellers with Long traders stopped and Shorters (entered). Them sweeping the Sell Side Liquidity is buying into it pushing the price up. We remain with a buying side bias for the week.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
Life Health Care group showing strong upside to R21.39 WARNINGW Formation since Sep 2022. It's been moving in a sideways range without any promising direction. Then in February we had a breakaway gap. This is where the price jumped from the sideways range into an uptrend. And most sellers and stop losses were hit. This showed strong upside to come. 7>21>200 RSI>50 Target R21.39 WARNING Gaps like to close 70% of the time. And I don't generally like taking any trades where there are prior gaps. I'd take this trade as a medium probability one.
JSE:LHCLong
by Timonrosso
Glencore is could break down for the 1st time in years to R81.70M Formation has formed on Glencore. This was prior to an ongoing uptrend, until last year. Last year it moved into a range bounded state which has formed this M Formation near the end of 2022. Now we can expect a break down any day now below the neckline. There are other bear signs, and the biggest is RSI. 21>7 - Bearish Price>200 - TEST RSI has been forming lower highs since before the M formation. This is an extremely Bearish divergence where we can expect the price to follow. RSI<50 Target R81.70
JSE:GLNShort
by Timonrosso
Bidcorporation still in the Twilight-zoneIt definitely can seem tempting to buy (go long) a stock like Bidcorp as by theory it's broken above the Cup and Handle pattern and the moving averages look great 7>21 >200. However, it's also good to look at the broader picture of price action. Bidcorp has been moving in a sideways rectangle formation since February 2021... I think only above R30.00 will give me some semblance of hope of a new bull run... Until then, I'm hesitant to go long.
JSE:BID
by Timonrosso
2
JSE ALSI 40 ready to rock to 73,300The JSE ALSI 40 is finally showing strong upside since April 2022... It's broken up and out of a box formation and is showing the first target to 73,300... This is based on following the recent America's rally with the inflation rate coming down finally and dropping below the expectations. GDP is picking up and jobs have added over 261,000 jobs. The leaders of the pack was Naspers, Anglo American, Sasol and Shoprite helping push up the JSE. Bullish Bias...
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
1
JSE ALSI 40 - Short - Inverse Cup and Handle Technically an Inverse Cup and Handle has presented itself. The breakout below the brim level is still quite a weak breakout, but the stop loss is quite wide to give leeway. Fundamentally, Inflationary measures and rising interest rates are going to have a ripple effect around the world. The JSE will also following leading markets, which will bring it down. I'm going short... What do you think? Kind regards, Timon Rossolimos CEO, MATI Trader
JSE:J200Short
by timonrosso87
JSE to head to new highsReason #1: Our economy is about to wake up with the ease of the lockdown On Monday, 1 June 2020, the national lockdown went to level 3. This resulted in many firms and businesses resuing operation at almost, full capacity. Already we’ve seen a boost in activity in food production, retail, communications as well as mining. In fact, most underground mines like DRD are heading back to 100% production. Millions of employees have gone back to work, there’s been an improved sentiment towards the economy and the JSE has rallied 3.28% with three up days in a row. Jasper Lawler, Head of research at London Capital Group, said, “Markets are pinning hopes on a quick economic rebound once lockdown and travel restrictions are lifted,” Reason #2: The JSE is lagging the World index The JSE as well as many other emerging markets, tend to follow the world markets… When the World index moves up, we see the JSE follow. And when it drops (due to a financial crisis or a global Black Swan event) the JSE crashes with it. This is because most South African equity market’s earnings, are derived from demand factors outside its borders. Now let’s take a second to look at the World index (MSCI ACWI Index) performance in relation to the JSE… In the last six months, it’s clear that the JSE (orange line), has traded at a huge discount compared to other emerging markets measured by the world Index (Black line). This tells us we should expect the JSE to move up in sync again. And looking at the last two months with the sudden up spike, this means it’s already on its way. Reason #3: Lowest interest rates since the 70s On Thursday, the SARB cut the repo rate by yet another 50 basis points. This came after a 100bps cut in March and another 100bps in April. This brought the repo rate down from 4.25% to 3.75%. These are levels we’ve not seen since the 1970s. What this means for investors is they’ll receive less interest on their savings and low yielding assets… As the return is much lower, investors will most likely take their money and deposit into better return on investment assets. And now with many sectors looking very cheap, we can expect investors to start buying low price but high quality companies on the JSE. And the charts share the same sentiment. Since 1 March up until 1 June, we’ve seen the ALSI 40 (JSE All Share Top 40 Index) move in a triangular pattern (shaded area). This is called an Ascending Triangle which has two main characteristics. #1: Triangle that makes higher highs The price moves down until it hits a bottom. In this case, the price moved to a low price at 34,000. It then moves up and forms a high price. Which in this case, the price moved to a high at 48,323. #2: The price breaks out of the triangle The market then moves to the top and breaks up and out of the triangle formation. Now that the price has broken out of the Ascending Triangle, we can expect demand and buyers to rush in. This will result in the ALSI moving to new highs. To calculate this target, we’ll take the difference between the high and the low of the formation and add it to the high. Target price = (High – Low) + High = (48,323 – 34,000) + 48,323 = 62,646 This means, we can expect the JSE ALSI to rally another 30% from where it currently is, in the next few weeks.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
Medium probability - Reversal Symmetrical Triangle on ALSI 40Here’s why I expect the JSE to plunge 10%... Reason #1: When world markets crash, South Africa goes down with it As global markets plunge, history has shown us the JSE will follow suit! Last week alone, global stock markets closed down over 2% in one day because of the coronavirus: London's FTSE: -2.5% European Stoxx: -2% France’s CAC: -2% Germany's DAX: -2.5% Shanghai Composite: -2.7% Japan's NIKKEI: -2.2% The JSE : -2.7%, And with the rate that the virus is spreading on a daily basis, the world markets will continue to drop as investors flee away from stocks due to the uncertainty and fear the virus can bring to the companies. Unfortunately, we’ll need to wait it out until we see the number of cases (from the virus) start to slow down – before we see a market rally again. Reason #2: Drop in Chinese visits As the global outbreak has spread to over 13 countries, including the US, there are serious measures being implemented to try to contain the virus. And as the virus continues to spread, South Africa will eventually feel the impact. In fact, Efficient Group Chief economist Dawie Roodt explained that South Africa will be affected in three ways… “The first is through the real economy if other countries start closing borders, affecting trade and tourism. The second is through the financial markets and its impact on commodity prices and exchange rates. The third is if the virus also arrives in South Africa,” With less international travel, with fewer businessmen and tourists arriving in South Africa, this will cause a disruption to the economy. This is because Chinese tourism has become a major source of foreign exchange income for South Africa. Finally… - my charts confirm it! Reason #3: The charts point to double-digit losses on the JSE Looking at the daily chart of the JSE, it’s been forming in a negative triangle formation for the last two years. Based on the global reasons above, I now expect the price to break below the bottom of the triangle. Once this happens, selling pressure and panic will kick in and cause the price to drop to the bottom of the triangle. In this case my first target to hit is down 10.9%.... This is a medium probabiility trade as knowing the change of market sentiment, anything can happen... UNtil it hits the stop loss, my outlook is bearish...
JShort
by Timonrosso
69% Chance of a Santa Claus Rally on the JSE in 2019Go to Google, Bloomberg, Business Times and you’ll see big debates between nations talking about this rally. This sparked my curiosity to see if we could also see a stock market rally on the JSE this year. Today I’m going to tell you what the Santa Claus rally is, why it exists and how you have a 69% chance to profit from the JSE this December. Let’s get to it… Why you can see a sudden stock market rally at Christmas time The Santa Claus rally, in a nutshell, is when stocks see sudden price rises and strong gains near the end of December and in early January. And when stocks rally, this drives up the actual stock market indices as well. According to the 2019 Stock Trader’s Almanac, there’s an average 1.3% market rally in stocks, during this time that has taken place 75% of the time since 1969. We are not 100% sure why the stock market ends positive during the last few days of the year, but here are some common theories. Theory #1: Investment managers cut down on their taxes This is the time when you’ll see investors and investment managers, selling their stocks to lock in tax reductions before the end of the year. Once they sell their positions, they then buy other stocks and markets that they believe will rally in the next year. The buying of these stocks, leads to a rise in stock prices which pushes the stock market indices up. Theory #2: Investors treat themselves with their bonuses Investors tend to splurge at the end of the year on stocks with their bonuses they’re paid at the end of the year. And when there’s buying, demand picks up which leads to higher stock market prices. We can speculate all we want, but nothing tells us the truth more than what the charts show. What you see, is the monthly JSE-ALSI stock market chart since 2003… Looking at the chart you can see how each December (Vertical blue line) performed from 2003 up ‘till 2018. Year Gain/Loss 2003 7.39% 2004 1.28% 2005 6.84% 2006 3.90% 2007 -4.99% 2008 0.51% 2009 2.62% 2010 6.69% 2011 -3.26% 2012 2.72% 2013 3.27% 2014 -0.53% 2015 -1.15% 2016 0.48% 2017 -1.33% 2018 4.63% So, there’ve been 11 out of 16 Decembers (69%) that have shown positive gains. And in total, the JSE has accumulated 29.07% gains in all of those Decembers. This means, you have a higher chance of profiting from buying this Christmas than selling. Trade well, Timon Rossolimos Founder, TimonAndMATI.com
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
7 Nov 2019 - JSE ALSI 40 - Long - W Formation FEEL PRIDEThere are many aspects to celebrate the JSE rising... Technically we have a breakout above the W-formation, break up above the downtrend for the first time since may and end of the year buying before year-end. Fundamentally we have a couple of reasons to feel pride: 1. JSE Is tightening with the regulations with the listing requirements 2. Leila Fourie stepped in as CEO in early October which has sent the JSE flying over 8% 3. We dodged the junk status by Moodys (Baaa3) 4. US and China seem to be entering a compromise part of the relationship with cutting down on tarriffs and offering 20-40-50bn worth of farm goods. 5. We won the Rugby WOrld Cup (32:12) 6. #ImStaying grew to over 860,000 members Anyways, the charts are what makes us take the trade - everything else is just fun confirmation.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso