We're a little early to the end gameOBV & RSI peaked at the blow off tops of 2017 and 2013 alike. Not here in 2021... RSI is cooling off, BTC has been chilling, and we got some time to kill.
Below is 2019s bull trap. Look at how similar the data is. That's because we're early. 2019 was early. May 2021 is still early. We've got nothing but time until the end game. For now, it's alt season.
here is 2017s blow off top // notice how every datapoint peaks at roughly the same spot
2013s blow off top
2013s 'little too early' blow off top
ALT
BTCUSD W4 Apr 2021Bitcoin
👉🏻 With the power outage in China which has caused almost 40% of the mining activities being halted, we have seen a huge sell of of over 25% off the highs. Before any power is restored, we could probably see Bitcoin makes its way to the next major support of 46,000 - 44.000 region. Other alt coins will follow the papa as well.
This land is mine - says BTCAs you may have seen in several of the last posts, I have been focused on the connections between cross pairs and instruments. My main trading is mostly FX, but with a lot of interest in the crypto space I have been adding some content on this and running commentary on the BTC drops recently.
It's amazing to see professional money enter the market, but what most people don't understand is, that it's not "pro money in = price up" there's a lot more to it.
So firstly; go and check out the last couple of crypto posts.
The second point is - there's something interesting here.
Now think, if we can see it - who is going to be attracted to this point? Then of course we have the 50k "round number" all retail games of the mind.
I have been asked several times recently, about the correlation of other coins. Quite frankly, BTC is only now becoming institutionalized. ETH will come but it's not there 100% yet (neither is bitcoin YET ) - But look at what happens with a chart overlay on ETH over BTC.
Then on the strength indicator - we can see a slight blip on ETH but not XRP or BTC. You need to keep in mind that there is a lot of hype in the market so a blip here and there is to be expected.
The daily Quadratics show we are still in negative territory on a daily and the rise in the ATR would also suggest a gain in momentum. COT data tonight will paint another clearer picture of next week's bias.
Then we can look out to the weekly; we are positive in terms of bias (look back at the Elliott post) showing this as a weekly pullback and not an overall down move.
Why XRP - what about XRP? Well XRP has now over 300 institutional clients and an actual real use case. Although BTC is a store of value, the fees make it hard for any real adoption. Whilst Ripple allows more complex transactions (think wealth manager tasks) in fractions of seconds. This is a strong case for XRP as long as they clear the next SEC/Congress situation. Until then BTC will stay dominant.
We will be covering some of this on Monday in a stream on TradinvView with my good friend @Paul_Varcoe who will be hosting the stream. Hopefully, a time will be released later today.
Overall bias "LONG" crypto but short term - clear as day we are in a messy (3) - (4) move down on BTC which currently drives everything else.
Have a great weekend all!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
AUDIO UPDATE - Short term downside, Re entry IdeasAll the info is written on the chart.
Still long term bullish, but I still expect some more short term downside based on the chart.
The green dash lines are possible re-entry levels, but they're subject to change with market conditions. Scale in and consider using stop loss orders to conserve capital in case of more downside.
happy trades,
CD
GRT/BTC ready for a parabolic run.As we can see GRT is almost ready for a big run towards the top here, targets are hard to pinpoint but based on the Fibs we should see a nice rise out of it, used the prev run as an indication. It is tightly consolidating now into and near the top trend line, it has already done 2 fakeouts and the 3rd one should be pushing it upwards.
Trade at your own risk, this is not financial advice, just speculation.
SiaCoin breaking out of major channel and resistance.Looks like Siacoin is ready here to go into a parabolic run for its own. its been grinding the bottom of the channel for quite some time now, and typically this ends up resulting in big parabolic runs upwards, after all the BTC.D keeps dropping and it is already Alt Season, most coins will have a run at some point or another if not all coins. Looks like a potentially good entry early on for Spot, cheap coins can give big gains all in all.
PS this is not financial advice, I am only speculating, and having fun with the charts. Trader and invest AT YOUR OWN RISK > DYOR.
AUDIO UPDATE: NFT NEWS PUMP!After a massive 3000% run up over the past few months, AUDIO entered a steady retrace as most altcoin PA stagnated due to BTC volatility.
However, 4 days ago the Audius team announced planned NFT integration, covered by coindesk here:
www.coindesk.com
Anything NFT related is getting a lot of attention / bullish investment, so this news drop was a well-timed attempt to stop the bleeding.
Unfortunately I think this news largely went under the radar as BTC stole everyone's focus the last few days.
Perhaps now people are hearing about it because sure enough, despite bearish short term technicals, today the price pumped, breaking out with volume.
The question is - is this news enough to reverse the short term downtrend? Or is this a case of "buy the rumor, sell the news?"
Short term technicals have shifted bullish on this pump. Stoch & MACD are oversold & angling upward on 12HR and 1D TFs, and the volume does add validity to the breakout. These indicators still look pretty bearish on 3D and Weekly though. So I'm kinda on the fence.
It would be more compelling to see a third bounce around the 200MA / recent support. I would consider that an aggressive entry point at this time, but who knows. If enough people fomo into this pump, we could see another run up sooner than expected.
happy trades,
CD
Alt Coin Macro Total Market Cap Monthly Analysis Alt Coin Macro Total Marketcap Analysis
This is a simple macro chart of the 1 Month Alt Coin Total Market Cap excluding BTC.
In reference to the previous Kraken Wick BTC Dominance chart I did ( ) , I found it interesting that the month of February 2021 with the Kraken Wick is the same monthly candle that broke the previous Alt Coin Total MC ATH. Since then BTC has been losing dominance to Alts.
Another thing I am keeping track of over the next months is the monthly RSI. We have not yet hit the previous ATH RSI resistance line. In my opinion there is still a good probability that the Alt coin total market cap has room for growth.
Another thing to take note of is the previous bearish divergence at points August 2017 and December 2017 created with the Price Action and RSI. I am keeping an eye on a possible scenario of a new bearish divergence forming over the next months as a way of helping detect Topped out conditions.
Bitcoin dominance is in danger?CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
Many people are still talking about upcoming alt-season, however I believe alt-season is here for three month! Many coins made ATH even to BTC pairs.
Looking at weekly chart makes me think that we are actually getting close the end of the party. I specified previous alt-seasons in the blue blocks, together with RSI state in yellow blocks.
As you can see we still have room on weekly RSI to deep, dominance also broke down the uptrend and went under EMAs.
Despite this situation I would be careful with alts. Most likely we see another step up for BTC and keep in mind that as soon as it happens, alts will crash and dominance will sky rocket.
Of course overall we got a chance for super cycle and continuation of the alt-season with the slow growth of BTC, but I would not count on that.
Let me know what you think in the comments. Good luck!
Alt Coin Market Cap ChartIs anyone else watching this, if Bitcoin dominance continues to decline while alts take more market share , then we're entering a new altcoin phase imo.
For instance, the alt coin dominance may be in the process of S/R flipping a huge resistance. Blue sky break out? Moon targets?