ALT Season? Not Even CloseWhen we exclude Bitcoin from the total crypto market cap, it becomes clear that we’re far from the conditions needed for an ALT season. Here’s a breakdown:
First Resistance: $1.28T (Excluding BTC)
The last high was in March 2024, with the market cap reaching $1.28T.
At that time, BTC dominance was around 52%.
Second Resistance: $1.71T (Excluding BTC)
This was the peak during the ALT season in November 2021, with the market cap hitting $1.71T. Back then, BTC dominance had dropped to just 42%.
Current Situation
BTC dominance is now sitting at 60%, which is far too high for a typical ALT season to start.
Historically, ALT seasons tend to begin when BTC dominance falls below 50% or even lower.
Conclusion
The altcoin market has a long way to go before reaching the conditions for a true ALT season. We need BTC dominance to decline significantly and the altcoin market cap to break through key resistance levels at $1.28T and $1.71T.
What’s your outlook? Are altcoins still in Bitcoin’s shadow, or is a shift coming? Let’s discuss!
Altanalysis
#ALT (SPOT) entry range ( 0.07 - 0.077) T.(0.3499) SL (0.0665)BINANCE:ALTUSDT
entry range ( 0.07 - 0.077)
Target1 (0.1530) - Target2 (0.2690) - Target3 (0.3499)
SL .1D close below (0.0665)
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ALTUSDT.1DThe ALT/USDT chart analysis presents a detailed view of the current market scenario, emphasizing various technical indicators and their implications on the potential market movements. Here's a thorough examination of the displayed data:
Trend Analysis:
The chart exhibits a general downtrend with the price currently at $0.1556, a slight increase by 1.43% from the previous session. The descending resistance line delineated on the chart suggests continued bearish sentiment, restricting any bullish momentum from sustaining.
Support and Resistance Levels:
R1 at $0.1161: This initial resistance level suggests a near-term target for any bullish reversal.
R2 at $0.3048 and R3 at $0.4534: These represent more substantial resistance levels, providing potential future targets should the price momentum shift significantly to the bullish side.
Key Support (S1) at $0.1161: Coinciding with R1, this level acts as a critical pivot area. Its role as both support and resistance emphasizes its importance in upcoming sessions.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
The RSI at 28.31 indicates an oversold market condition. Typically, this suggests that the market might be due for a reversal or at least a temporary relief rally as sellers might have exhausted their momentum, and buyers could start to see value.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD):
The MACD line is marginally below the signal line and very close to zero in the histogram. This configuration implies weak momentum with a bearish bias but also suggests that the market is not experiencing strong downward pressure at the moment.
Volume Analysis:
While specific volume data isn't shown, volume is a critical factor in confirming any potential trend reversals or continuations. A pickup in volume alongside a price rise could confirm a bullish reversal, whereas low volume may indicate lack of conviction in the move.
Strategic Trading Advice:
Considering the oversold RSI and the current pricing near a critical support/resistance level (S1/R1 at $0.1161), traders might look for signs of stabilization or a bullish reversal pattern before entering long positions. If entering trades based on this level, setting tight stop-losses just below S1 could help manage risk, especially if the downtrend resumes.
If the price begins to rise, approaching R2, the strategy could shift towards capturing gains at higher resistance levels, particularly if accompanied by increasing volume, indicating a stronger bullish sentiment.
In conclusion, the ALT/USDT pair shows potential for a bullish reversal given the oversold conditions and the critical pivot at $0.1161. However, traders should remain cautious and look for confirmation in price action and volume to support any trading decisions. Always consider the broader market context and adjust strategies dynamically as conditions evolve.