Altseason 2025 is about to start.The crypto total market cap excluding the top 10 dominance just entered the bottom zone of the 7 year Channel Up.
After a symmetric -60% correction during the 2022 bear cycle, similar to 2018, this is now the time for the last 1 year rally.
This will be the Altseason of 2025, stronger than the one in 2024.
We expect the price to reach as high as the 1.5 Fibonacci extension.
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Altcoinmarket
ETH Update - 02.09.2024 / Local UpdateAt 4h: we observe trading under the lower boundary of accumulation and formation of seller and liquidity imbalance zones from above behind the highs and the upper boundary of accumulation.
At 1h: here I expect either a liquidity re-sweep from the low or an inversion and a move to liquidity at the local high.
Stick to your risk managment!
Is ALTseason Finally Back?ALTseason actually started already back in 2023, when we got a nice five-wave bullish impulse in the ALTcoin dominance chart with ticker OTHERS.D. It was first leg A of a three-wave A-B-C rally.
We have seen a slow down in the last couple of months along with the whole Crypto market and that's why most of the ALTcoins came lower than Bitcoin, but we can see a corrective (A)-(B)-(C) decline within wave B with the wedge pattern within wave (C) of B that can be coming to an end.
So if we are on the right path, then seems like new ALTseason may not be far away, especially if we consider that Bitcoin and the whole Crypto market are still bullish. However, to even think about the next ALTseason, we have to see ALTcoin dominance back above 10.55%, which is first bullish evidence for a higher degree wave C.
If Ethereum Can't Break These Levels, Then....Traders,
I have a pretty good record for calling these inverse head and shoulders patterns before they are fully formed. I am not saying for sure Ethereum will form this inverse head and shoulders pattern but if it doesn't, then it will need to break above those resistance levels I have drawn and confirm. If it can't do this on the daily, then I have a hunch this inverse h&s will complete itself.
Ethereum leads the altcoin market rn. So, depending on where your bet lies, you may want to offset some risks and take profit here as we begin to consolidate/accumulate for another bull run.
Stew
ALT SEASON can start as early as next week and this is why.We frequently look at the altcoin market and very often look for clues on its dominance and market cap. A historic comparison of alts with Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles shows that alts bottom after Bitcoin, a lag which is natural considering that BTC is the market leader. Similarly it is possible for alts to rally when Bitcoin is correcting or consolidating.
Using Bitcoin's Halvings as a measure to separate pre and post-Halving phases, we can see that in the past two Cycles, alts have made a dump within the green zone following Bitcoin's Halving.
On this Cycle however, we see that very same dump having started since late December 2023, while Bitcoin rallied aggressively, which is in our opinion attributed to the ETF anticipation and then launch in January 2024. It is therefore very probable that this was the alt market's 'post-Halving dump'.
In any case, Alts have reached the bottom of their usual Bullish Megaphone that is historically formed when they bottom. It is therefore very probable to see the new Alt Season, which is when alts rally parabolically and naturally more aggressively than Bitcoin, starting as early as next week.
What do you think?
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ALTS are ready to explode after this Golden Cross! DON'T MISS ITThe Crypto Total Market Cap excluding BTC (TOTAL2), which is essentially the altcoin market, just completed a Golden Cross on the 1W time-frame. That is the first such formation since September 14 2020.
As you can see, that was during the middle of the previous Bull Cycle, around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and past the Accumulation Phase (blue Rectangle). The 1W Golden Cross essentially signaled the start of the Parabolic Rally (green Rectangle) 3-4 weeks later, which is the most aggressive part of the Cycle and what is otherwise known as 'Alt Season', the time when alt coins see extraordinary growth.
The similarities between the two Cycles so far are striking. The Accumulation Phase was very long and took place on 1W RSI Higher Lows, a Bullish Divergence that paved the way to the Cycle's Rally. Note that this is only the 2nd 1W Golden Cross of the market, a feat that traders and investors should not miss and take advantage of. As long as the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) supports, the market will continue to be on the Bull Cycle and enjoy its biggest gains.
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TWT POTENTIAL X2 SETUPAhead of the bitcoin correction, I expect a relatively small correction of twt by about 20 percent. Historically, this asset is very strong and has a lot of interest from big players, which was shown by the unloading of the asset at the end of 2022.
I expect a correction with a likely squeeze down and further growth to about 2.4 to close the imbalance zone and further distribution of the asset.
Be careful with possible upward squeezes and do not make hasty trading decisions, it is not yet time for growth.
MOVR - MoonriverMOVR is about to start it's own personal bullrun. There will be nothing who will stop it, and I do believe we will see new ATH in 2025 or maybe even in 2024 as this year is already unpredictable.
Either get in now or regret later. When this one moves it will not wait for noone, weekly RSI just reset and we moon anytime now.
What Is Moonriver (MOVR)?
Moonriver is an Ethereum-compatible, smart-contract parachain on Kusama. It is intended to be a companion network to Moonbeam, where it will provide a permanently incentivized canary network. New code will ship to Moonriver first, where it can be tested and verified under real economic conditions. Once proven, the same code will ship to Moonbeam on Polkadot.
It does this by providing a full EVM implementation, a Web3-compatible API, and bridges that connect Moonriver to existing Ethereum networks.
This allows developers to deploy existing Solidity smart contracts and DApp frontends to Moonriver with minimal changes.
FilecoinFIL Looks very good. Ready for a move up for at least 80%. We do not have resistance up-to 16.5$ so it looks like we can go to those levels or even slightly above. that would be aver 100% gains.
I take profits starting 70% to 110% except there will be no signs of strength left. then taking all at ~80%
What Is Filecoin (FIL)?
Filecoin is a decentralized storage system that aims to “store humanity’s most important information.” The project raised $205 million in an initial coin offering (ICO) in 2017, and initially planned a launch date for mid-2019. However, the launch date for the Filecoin mainnet was pushed back until block 148,888, which is expected in mid-October 2020.
The project was first described back in 2014 as an incentive layer for the Interplanetary File System (IPFS), a peer-to-peer storage network where users pay for data storage and distribution services in $FIL. Filecoin is open protocol and backed by a blockchain that records commitments made by the network’s participants, with transactions made using FIL, the blockchain’s native currency. The blockchain is based on both proof-of-replication and proof-of-spacetime.
Filecoin is open-source and decentralized, which means that all governance is in the hands of the community. On the Filecoin platform, developers have the opportunity to create cloud file storage services like Dropbox or iCloud. Anyone can join Filecoin and start storing their data or earn money by providing space for someone else's funds. The creators of Filecoin opted for their blockchain technology to run the network and their token with their own consensus.
TSX:FIL is the native currency of Filecoin that powers the entire network and all processes. Clients pay for transactions in FIL tokens. Miners place FIL as collateral, guaranteeing their services.
The developers claim that Filecoin solves the problem of inefficient file storage and retrieval. Customers can find the right solution with an efficient set of tools and its core development, IPFS.
NEAR ProtocolNear protocol has a lot of Bullish patterns, indicators.
My take profits start with 45% to 100%.
Inverted double H&S showcasing we should get a strong and a fast move up.
What Is NEAR Protocol (NEAR)?
NEAR Protocol is a layer-one blockchain that was designed as a community-run cloud computing platform and that eliminates some of the limitations that have been bogging competing blockchains, such as low transaction speeds, low throughput and poor interoperability. This provides the ideal environment for DApps and creates a developer and user-friendly platform. For instance, NEAR uses human-readable account names, unlike the cryptographic wallet addresses common to Ethereum. NEAR also introduces unique solutions to scaling problems and has its own consensus mechanism called “Doomslug.”
NEAR Protocol is being built by the NEAR Collective, its community that is updating the initial code and releasing updates to the ecosystem. Its declared goal is to build a platform that is “secure enough to manage high value assets like money or identity and performant enough to make them useful for everyday people.”
Flux, a protocol that allows developers to create markets based on assets, commodities, real-world events, and Mintbase, an NFT minting platform are examples of projects being built on NEAR Protocol.
SolanaSol, emerges as a beacon of bullish sentiment, hinting at the possibility of substantial gains, potentially doubling in value. Renowned for its lightning-fast transaction speeds and low fees, Solana has carved a niche for itself in the cryptocurrency landscape. The project's innovative approach to scalability, utilizing its Proof of History (PoH) consensus mechanism, sets it apart from its competitors. Solana's burgeoning ecosystem, encompassing decentralized applications (dApps) and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, continues to attract both developers and users alike. Its recent performance showcases resilience amidst market fluctuations, bolstering investor confidence. With an array of strategic partnerships and continuous protocol upgrades, Solana remains poised for exponential growth. As the crypto market matures, Sol stands out as a promising asset, offering the potential for lucrative returns to savvy investors. Watch closely as Solana charts its course towards a potentially bullish trajectory.
The time to be bullish on ALTS is NOW.It hasn't been that long (October 05 2023) since we called for the start of a major Alt Season ahead:
As you can see, we caught the absolute bottom on the 494.45 Support, a pattern purely modeled out from the January - April 2023 sequence. On today's market update we look it from a wider perspective by comparing the current price action to the previous 2 Cycles.
Based on the 1W RSI and Gaussian Channel, the current market consolidation since December is very similar to August - October 2020, April - May 2016. We are above the Gaussian Channel, which turned green after the week of January 08, supported by the blue Lower High Support Zone. The 1W RSI has pulled back from the December 2023 overbought levels, which is again similar to the 2020 and 2016 sequences. We are basically on the symmetrical Support level where the past consolidations bottomed.
As a result, the Alts Market seems to be around the lowest level one can enter before rallies similar to late 2020 - 2021 and early 2016 - 2017 take place.
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CRYPTO: Brace for a big Alt Season.All critical indicators have been aligned perfectly for a new alt season rally. The price is now over the 1M MA50 and on the 0.382 Fibonacci level from top to bottom. The 1M RSI is at 55.000 while the 1M MACD just made a Bullish Cross. The last time all those took place together was on June 2020. That was at the start of the Cycle's parabolic rally and this was only one in a total of two red months until May 2021 (9 green months in a total of 11). We can't get a stronget buy signal in the crypto market than that, a clear sign that this is probably the last opportunity to invest in the market for extraordinary gains.
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ALTSEASON about to break-out aggressively!TOTAL3 which measures the Crypto Total Market Cap excluding Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD), is essentially a metric of the altcoin market. It's movement in relation to previous Cycle is indicative of what we call an 'Altseason', when this market segment rises disproportionally to the rest.
The price tested the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) last week for the 1st time since May 2022 but failed to break it and closed the week below it. With the rejection also being on the (dashed) top of the Ascending Triangle (bottom formation pattern), it appears that the market is replicating the sequence of January 20 2020. Even the 1W ROC patterns are identical.
As a result, a candle closing above the top of the Ascending Triangle, will be a buy signal for us, targeting initially the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 570B (as it did in July 27 2020 and wouldn't have done earlier if it weren't for the COVID crash). Then the 0.618 Fib should be targeted, which should give the final +/- 1 month consolidation before new All Time Highs.
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Prepare for a major ALTSEASON ahead!We believe the alt coin market is starting a major rally and the indicator is a simple 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) test on the BTC Market Cap Dominance (BTC.D). Every time the market has touched its 1M MA50, the alts market (orange trend-line) has started an aggressive rally, which is what we call 'Altseason'. Since September 2019, this is the 3rd time we will have such a major Altseason event and since we are before BTC's Halving, it will most likely not be the last of the current Cycle.
Have you picked up your alts already??
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ALT SEASON underway and this Support shows you WHY!Looking at this chart, it becomes more obvious how the alt coin market, which broke this Summer above the Bear Cycle's Falling Wedge, is preparing for a big move upwards. The 494.45 level has been tested 4 times and emphatically held on all as it provided rebounds that left large 1W candle wicks behind.
The latest was on September 11 but stopped last week on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). A 1W candle close above it opens the way for a Lower Highs test, similar to January 09 2023, which when it broke it started the 2nd part of the rally.
There is only one long-term Resistance left from the Bear Cycle and that is the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) that is intact since May 09 2022. This what the markets target should be, we estimate a potential contact at 650B, by the end of the year.
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ALTCOIN MC update ; looks... badALTCOIN MC update ; looks... bad
zoom in, you can see momentum is rolling over to the downside;;; again.
its all just getting dragged out this time. which sucks because that prob means massively long lame asf bear market.
good aspect of that is it gives you time to accumulate shit coins that will survive.
aim for the ones with LONG dev runways who maintain development. thats it. the only two things that count.
everything else will die or barely survive and only half ass pump next time.
*activate hybernation mode
*apply for mcdonalds job
ALT COINS are well supported, waiting for a new High.The alt coin market (TOTAL2) following April's break-out above the Falling Wedge of the Bear Cycle that started in mid 2021, has pulled-back, tested both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1M MA50 (red trend-line) as Supports. Currently we are seeing the 1W MA50 holding, having closed the last 6 candles above it. The technical Resistance is the 1 Year Zone within 618 (where the price got recently rejected) and 700.
On the long-term though, the Wedge break-out along with the formation of the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, targets much higher and more specifically the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 1.135T.
Note that in the meantime, the 1W MACD completed a Bullish Cross 2 weeks ago, the first this past year (since August 08 2022).
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Total 3 Bull Market in Jan - Mar 2024Total 3 - Altcoins (minus BTC & ETH)
A different "perspective" to yesterdays chart.
Yesterdays chart suggested TOTAL 2 (Altcoins minus BTC) has a probability of breaking out in Dec 2023.
The TOTAL 3 (Alts minus BTC/ETH) chart suggests we could break out later between Jan - Mar 2024. This would make sense as BTC and ETH are typically first movers, and are followed by the altcoin market.
Its important to understand that these charts help gauge timing a long term trade in altcoins. The charts only provide a rough time frame of a probability of a break out into a new secular bull market between Dec 2023 - Mar 2024. All this offers is a probable time window. I would hope it would help you sit on your cash until we have some confirmation of price direction within a historically reasonable time frame, as illustrated in the charts.
PUKA.
Total 2 - Altcoins minus BTC TOTAL 2 - Crypto Market Cap minus BTC
Three confirmations for bull status
1. Above 100 week SMA (No where close)
2. Complete 149 weeks in Pennant (Dec 2023)
3. Break above Point of Control (POC)
The 2018 - 2020 fractal is overlaid for perspective only
The Point of Control (POC) is the price level at which the greatest number of contracts have been traded within a volume profile (THICK RED LINE).
This line naturally coincides with resistance overhead.
Its important to recognize that the chart is just a perspective that aims at helping with timing an entry with a good potential outcome. With three indicators backing your trade you would have a better probability outcome. So we wait for the three confirmations to occur. Could you be accumulating sure.... but why would you when we are under the 100 week SMA appear to have more time to burn before a Bitcoin cycle really kicks off never mind the altcoins. Its important to recognize also that this chart includes ETH and ETH has been performing exceptionally well this cycle. I will be completing another chart excluding eth in coming days.
I hope this chart helps you time your trade and your positing into altcoins, when the time is right, when we have confirmations and the wind at our back.
PUKA
ALT COINS Made a major bullish break-out above the Falling WedgeThe alt coin market (TOTAL2) broke last week above the Falling Wedge of the Bear Cycle that started in mid 2021. Currently we may be seeing a pull-back that may put the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) to test as Supports.
On the long-term though, this break-out along with the formation of the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, targets much higher and more specifically the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 1.135T.
Note that it was the 1D MA50 crossing below the 1W MA50 in mid February that confirmed the long-term downtrend and similarly, it will most likely be last month's 1D MA50 crossing over the 1W MA50 that confirms the long-term uptrend/ Bull Cycle.
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ALTCOIN Market still consolidating. This shows its huge upside.The Altcoin market (total market capitalization excluding Bitcoin) is basically still consolidating. The long-term pattern is a Channel that is best described when using the Fibonacci Channel levels. Right now the price is on its bottom, with the 1W LMACD turning bullish since the August Bullish Cross.
The only times in the market's history this happened below the 0.00 mark designated the bottoms of December 2018 and May 2015. As you see on the chart, on all occasions (including today), the US10Y had already peaked and was on a downtrend. This suggests that the market has entered a strong Accumulation Phase, with long-term investors stacking ahead of the new Bull Cycle. This historically is the best time to enter the market.
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