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Altcoinninjas

BTC: leveraged trading games. Discussion & theory.Greetings. Anyone who remembers back when the BTC markets took a dive in November 2017 might be able to recall at that time i set up a "leveraged trading playground" band that we would be playing in for some time. For reference here are the levels that i indicated. Back then i called the green line the "mid line" and i assumed we would actually be going sideways from that point and then waving between 5300 and 3500.. However i see now that my fault was i expected the period of uncertainty to find the bottom later rather than earlier. Looking back i see that the market went near full capitulation and then started from the bottom up... And it would make sense to shake out volatility early in the new region and then go stable and start extracting liquidations after a period of sentiment recovery. It is very easy to see that is the meek moves of recovery and that the candles are very precariously hanging. And i want to take a moment here to relate that one of the core aspects of value derived from crypto is within its profit extraction mechanisms. Many clone coins pop up attempting to provided incentives towards producing some network and database behavior that is supposed to decrease the friction of handling the transfers of contracts, value, and identity. Yet all of these coins suffer from the same type of double edged sword in that if one is using technology that is inherently designed to decrease friction then the capturing of your value for your coin may inherently be difficult. A prime example is that of Mastercoin, the ICO that started it all. It's worth very little now in comparison to the beginning... yet so much value has been made off it's back. With that said i wanted to note here that trading, and extracting profit from market participants, is one of the REAL driving value extraction methods for crypto. I remember years ago, must have been 2012 or 2011, ranting about the death of the dollar and how the crypto would in essence slowly start siphoning out fiat value into crypto value. Traditional market analysts and people with knowledge of international finance will be quick to discard such a fantasy as the scale and scope of it is almost irrelevant and unnecessary (look how abstract the financial capital market already is)... However i think what is important to note is that crypto gains it's value, or at least expresses it's representation of value, by siphoning off fiat. And i do not mean AT ALL that crypto is based "off the dollar" and that it's just another layer on top of the dollar. I mean that the idea of value that exists within the dollar is absorbed into the crypto ecosystem and assists in reflecting the value of it.. similar to how the price of gold doesn't actually mean that the gold is "worth more" but that it can be seen as the weakness of dollar, rather. Understanding as such... we cannot discount the power that price action has to cause profits to be extracted... and we cannot discount the power that these actors have to move the markets so as to induce scenarios to provided trading opportunity. We all know that over the past few months that not much new money has been coming into the exchanges. A lot of this time we have been feeding off of what already was (of course new money is entering in but not a fomo flood of fiat) and rising the total market cap through the buying and selling of Top coins and Alts... Not through a giant inject of fiat (and tether) onto the exchanges like what happened in 2017. We consider the region indicated in the chart above as the "playground" region for the market manipulators within the bear market. We are still within the bear market is my point here, and yes only in crypto can you have a 20% candle for top coins and still consider it "potentially bearish"... I too was caught up in the idea that in summer 2018 we might experience a giant rebound and race back past 20k but then i started seeing how exhausted the funds were and how hard the traders were hit and how they could not continue. No fund of any large amount in its right mind could easily play those moves. I am a believer now that the next bull run will be much greater than 20k and thus we will need to observe a longer period of growth outside of this region to really consider it bull season.. For if you believe that the market purely moved up on positive sentiment alone, and without some hint of manipulation or at least knowledge of price level alteration, then i do believe you are sorely mistaken. And the power to go up represents the power to go down... and we can easily trend upwards into the 8000 whilst still capturing liquidations and juicy trades on movement between 5300-3500. Looking briefly at the volume profile here we can easily see that we are currently on thin ice. The main factor keeping this baby afloat is positive sentiment, not a strong support at this price level. This is a place of waiting... and unless we see a strong sideways develop out that can cause a good support to establish then i do believe we have quite a bit more chop to experience in our push towards 8000 + ... You can consider that the bear market is not over yet, but the bottom is in. We are starting to reach towards the end of the bear market and i believe we are perhaps half way through it, maybe more. But i am still seeing a lot of big shocks to come. However lets disect a bit more what the market conditions currently may be for shorter time frame trading. In the above picture we have selected out three domains with red rectangle. These domains are periods in which we can observe the wave structure inherent in the sentiment patterning. You can see that at first it was highly choppy and volatile... after which the amplitudes died down a bit and we settled into a pattern of more stability with smaller waves and longer periods of sideways. Well. I do believe that there are consequences for this large price spike upwards we have currently had... Yet we need to watch to see what the real case is. 1) In one case we have the option that this massive spike may have broken us out of the current wave forms we were experiencing lately... long periods of stability followed by "1-3% moves" that would keep the market trending upwards. We may have a period now of dramatically increased volatility as the market scrambles to make sense of these sentiment shifting moves. 2) Yet the other case is that we need to look towards the continuation of the prior pattern: stability will continue marching along from this level with only minor 3% swings taking place on the short term (multiple days)... which could easily see us push up towards the higher 5000s and 6000s soon. Perhaps even sooner than expected. On the near term though (next few days) we could easily shoot into 5000s territory. The floating price right now is ripe for movement UP OR DOWN which we can easily see reflected in near equal short term pick ups of leveraged positions. However since i started this article the longs have really went vertical and increased which leaves me believe we will see 5000 fairly soon. A few closing notes here: If we drop down back towards 4000 on the short term we cannot easily know what type of scenario we will be in. We will need to wait until we see how the reaction to this extreme spike plays out. If you are expecting a steep run up back to full bull mode though i want you to know that it is low chance. The bear market is not over yet. We need to clear out these longs and test the gathered bullish sentiment. They don't just get to get slammed freely and then rise again. There is one final test. We need what happened last night to happen after a large sell event, we need a bounce, before we can be certain the bulls are strong enough to pull us out. In the mean time be careful in the alts. You saw how they all dropped nearly 20% when BTC pumped? well if we drop down back even to our safe 4000 level we will see potential drop in the alts in a similar fashion. Never discount the power of the margin gain.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Altcoin_Ninjas
1
BTC USD COINBASE 12/2/2018 DAY TRADING.Isn't exciting that we are nearing the end of 2018. What a year. Loved to see the strong and long bearish BTC appear showing just how much interest it has picked up since last year. Loved seeing all of the drama and excitement emerging, all of the pessimism and also the knowledge. This BTC year is very important because it's the first big year with a huge data point. Prior years are gonna see like nothing but noise in the future to come. Funny though because those small volume years have such deep political drama and evolution of the crypto ecosystem within them. Hope you enjoy the video. Sorry for the length however if you want a short description: For day traders: looking at a high probability for keeping above 3999 as our bottom on the short term. Expect test and small reversal. Alt market looking iffy.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Altcoin_Ninjas
1
BTC USD Coinbase: Market Capitulation and Shifts. We have reached a capitulation in the market at large. November has been a bloody month. We saw this coming earlier as it was clear that the long term trend for BTC was money leaving the market which translates into weaker supports in price ranges that did not have strong supports (speculative prices around 6000). Well, most of those traders have cleared out. Looking at coinbase we can see huge volume spikes indicating a lot of "hopeful holders" exiting. Coinbase is not an exchange with high trading volume but it is an exchange that a lot of novices "hold" on, and of course it is the entry point for fiat for the retail traders of several currencies. Furthermore we should explain that most of the 2017 pumping that occurred was highly influenced by connections between USDT printing and the Bitmex exchange where most of the fiat pairing leveraged trades take place. These leveraged trades are strong influence forces for the price action of btc and will continue to be significant in the coming days for determining the price swings. The picture above highlights where we should expect to range in the coming days. The yellow channel is the price action potential of what is left of the retail traders taking leveraged trades on Bitmex. The green region is the middle ground support we should look to gather up we if we want to think about breaking out. If we look across the alts we can see that much of the bullish sentiment that was activated on September 12 2018 has been retraced. The end of this motion was fairly bloody but there were good profits to be made on the rise up however we are a new landscape now with a LOT of volatility. Taking a look here we can see that on an exchange like BINANCE for a USDT pairing that most of the trading took place in positions that were no ideal in terms of profiting from the large pump. This differs from coinbase and reflects that the volume of retail traders who entered the market at prices above 5000 was quite large and that many of them do not have strong supports of lower priced BTC to hold onto. These are the ones who have capitulated. The holders below 3000 have wethered strong bearish markets and they are going to be much less likely to give up their coins: Look at how over sold that RSI is for btc, and the CMF, clear signs of bottoming out whereby we should expect money to start flowing into BTC once we have a few psychological shifts take place in the market at large. For one, BTC price drop has created a type of vacuum that several alts will start to compete for. As a general rule of thumb we should look towards price drops of BTC to have less effect on the alts than price increase over the coming days. Several alts are going to pump up over the next few days but the longer BTC sits below 5000 and the stronger people start feeling about supports within the yellow channel region the higher potential volatility we will have. What we have left right now is a BTC exchange market whoes price actions is primarily influenced by leveraged trades on Bitmex. The supports below, towards the 3000s not as susptible to giving up their coins that easily and what we have left is a new market with fresh traders who have experienced their first big bull run with a bear market and capitulation exisiting in an unregulated market where price is highly influced by leveraged traders trying to long and short. The 4600 price range is a great area to hold that makes a clear divide about our chances of going up, uncertainty that makes for good gains if you are collecting interest and liquidations from leveraged trades (hint: bitmex). I would recommend buying now if you ever wanted more btc... One last important note is that even if over the last few weeks we have seen some of bitcoin loose it's hashing power that overall the hashrate of BTC is much higher than it was in 2017 during and prior to the pump, which historically should paint a picture of the next bull run being even bigger. What do we need? institutional investors? New money for sure... But most of all we need people to exist within their capitulation and experience price ranging within the yellow channel for a while as other alts try to compete with each other for filling the void. Once we see the alts start to try to crawl out of this hole you should be ready for BTC to come and overtake them.
by Altcoin_Ninjas
2
Quick breakdown of the "bart" BTC market capturing wave. For those of you who are not familiar with this recurring structure here is a quick breakdown of often how the alts are effected by BTC. As of late the alts have been trying to decouple from BTC movements however the recent bullish injection that came from BCC over the last few days has had it's chance to permeate through the market. It's a good opportunity to get a clear breakdown of these small week long time frame market cycles. You can see from the chart above a break down with arrows of the general process of the market. We start from a position of low influence of BTC price on the alts... which is usually brought about by steady trend motion for BTC... From this point if we see movement in the big top coins then usually there is a readjustment of sentiment... People start to go into the top coins... Soon enough, when the top coins are pumping, then the alts start to pump and take positions...... After which the top coins start going sideways and looking spent... The altcoins that pumped while the top coins were running up are now in a dangerous position where the sentiment within their price action is more coupled to the top coins motions... and we know what happens next! The "bart" or square wave type shape of BTC and other top coins... Effectively these serve to capture portions of the market back to top coin dominance. It's a battlefield out there!
Education
by Altcoin_Ninjas
is there a pattern behind the larger BTC pump waves? Looking at the 1 day candle here in BTC USDT on binance we are observing a potential large movement incoming. Do you recall our prior discussion about the "types" of trading sentiment active during periods of time and how the whales often work on slower time intervals than the common traders? If not check out our brief discussion of the types. Well, we are wondering if we can test this theory by making a prediction about what happens over the next 3 days for BTC as there appears to be some conditions aligning for a good test. In this case we are looking for the daily chart to find some key points here regard BTC . Specifically we are talking about 4~5 day periods of upward movement at specific angles followed by pumps. However we need to clear this next daily candle on the green... Or do we? Judging the action of crypto by the candle is difficult as this market is irrational and often based purely on speculation and psychological forces rather actual market forces.. Or is it? One could alternatively consider that if they held a significant stake in crypto economy at large that they would want to use their asset to help "market make" rather than just having it sit idly and do nothing... This is in essence standard procedure in normal markets, though regulated. I do believe that people often underestimate the power that larger wallet holding groups have and that they miss the role they play in moving the market. Crypto is highly manipulated in this regard. You could imagine that we are dealing with a market where everyone who is a big stake holder has the opportunity for insider trading in a purely speculative fomo based market. Yet there is also foreseeable future real value that could blow up so immensely that it keeps people in the game searching for profits. For this particular charting what we are looking at is a break down of chart elements consisting of, Upward movement over a period of 4 days angle of trend above 49 timing in close proximity with phase matched to prior moves up. easy susceptibility of traders to fomo at this time due to recent BCC rush. So we make a theory, to try to understand what is going on with BTC . Rather than predicting the price we are focusing on what mechanisms are controlling BTC price movement because there is certainty that it is not purely the mass traders but that there are deeper controls and manipulations. We expect another big move soon.
by Altcoin_Ninjas
1
Important Reversal Appearing. Get ready to watch the action.BCC and ETH have shown the first bullish signs in several weeks. BCC blowing out of its' bearish bottom region to search for the bulls. Looking at the daily we see that BCC has really taken off. In the past, during the BTC correction from all time high, waves were often preceded by BCC pumps. In turn another important coin ETH also finally decided to have a run after an uncertain fate. Looking at the one minuet candle we can see that some serious Fear of Missing Out And bullish wave of sentiment blew up into ETH very quickly. In turn, during this same time frame we can see BTC itself wanted in on the action, Now we cannot say for sure that the bullrun has begun but what we can say for certain is that 3 very important coins all started experiencing a fervor bullish sentiment overtaking on the small time frame. This will no doubt leave a feeling lingering in the market as the day progresses.. We saw a sharp sell off of some alts as various traders began to F.O.M.O into their favorite coins in hopes for a bullish day. We advise you all to appreciate the bullish sentiment and take advantage of it while you can but do not forget that there is a strong potential for a bull-trap here.
by Altcoin_Ninjas
1
BTC USDT BINANCE Quick UpdateAfter experiencing a good sell off over the last few days BTC is at the bottom region of it's low volatility channel attempting to rally and reclaim 6400. With several indicators pointing towards an upward momentum coming to the table we are looking to break 6400 and hold above that before going sideways. There is still massive pressure to keep the price suppressed on BTC, lots of sellers holding orders above our heads keeping us in this channel. That is okay. We are in a great position for BTC to keep going sideways where it's at. Lets look towards a push to hold 6400 and watch how the market reacts as the selling orders try to drops us back down. With the potential breakout on the C.M.F and the D.M.I showing a phase of DMI + increase emerging we are looking ripe for some decent price action.
Long
by Altcoin_Ninjas
BTC USDT: BINANCE Update on BTC USDT TRENDSGreetings everyone i hope you have been catching some nice gains over the past few days as the alt markets have been pumping a lil bit. But lets turn our attention to BTC USDT, BINANCE... Not the bedrock measure, but a great reflection of larger "macro crypto forces" within the crypto trading environment. Because.. who doesn't love BTC drama! Have you heard everyone murmuring about the "stability" of BTC, the lack of volatility as compared to say other known indices such as NASDAQ (lol). Regardless... BTC has been channeling on the daily within this region and is approaching a very popular triangular pattern. But lets look a little closer about what we are dealing with. It is clear that traders are lining up within this sentiment geometry ready to explode and getting ready to make a trade. And what type of trade are people going for? Looking here at a few indicators (CMF, OBV, DMI) here for a one month period we get see a picture of BTC in a long term downward trend still and that on average the downward rallies are stronger. However, we are needing to make approximations about what types of conditions we are going to be facing on the near term for day trading. From the read of the chart and indicators such as this we can see that we are in a transition period for a new behavior to start to emerge. This behavior is not against long term trends yet (downward pressure is stronger still), to say that would be going too far, but more so short term sentiment will be swinging in favor of upward movements soon. Over the next few days i expect to see one more sell off to drop us down towards the bottom of the yellow channel (most in relation to clearing out leveraged positions i would say) and start to experience a bit of a reversal of BTC sentiment soon. This would time well with historical patterns of BTC over multiple years and also correspond with the theory that many are floating around concerning an emerging mini bull run. In the mean time keep watch of your alts! I expect one more big sell off before we start to channel upwards however there is something to take note of: The frequency of the DMI crossovers is increased substantially over the last few months, bringing about a strong stability in BTC prices. This can be observed quite markedly on the 1 year range DMI (7,100) chart. Note crossovers are appearing on smaller time frames but not apparent on 1 year frame with these settings. Because of this don't expect BTC to reach any great highs, but more so that it's channel direction will potentially be reversing with a week or two and that the average traders sentiment is swinging less violently as we remain under 7500 . Always watch how the whale dumps effect the market! It often takes a few days to see their total effect. Hope to see you around and good luck with your trading!
by Altcoin_Ninjas
BTCUSDT: BINANCESo BTC went for 6600 as predicted yesterday. After reaching past that price level it played around for a bit until recently when a dump brought it back down to below that region. Currently it is testing the support of 6575 and indicators are pointing towards there being enough momentum for it to attempt to consolidate support over the next 4 hours to think about making another push towards 6600... However i am not sure we will reach this level within that time frame without a big wallet / whale support. 6575 is an important level for BTC as many dumps have proceeded from previously here to drop below 6550. So lets keep close watch of what happens.
by Altcoin_Ninjas