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Simplify Market Neutral Equity Long/Short ETF Analysis 10/16/24DISCLOSURE: As of 10/16/24 I have no open positions in NYSE: EQLS Simplify Market Neutral Equity Long/Short ETF EQLS is a market neutral ETF with equal weighting long and short positions. The fund selects long and short positions based on valuations as well as qualitative factors. The fund has a 9.5% yield, which is quite impressive for returns in a market neutral way. Capital appreciation in this fund is unlikely and it will perform best during large stock market drops. For me, I see EQLS (and alternatives in general) as an asset allocation decision to lower draw-downs and earn a return that is uncorrelated with market moves. As long as you understand the risks and downsides of alternatives and are willing to accept a slightly lower return in order to stabilize your portfolio EQLS is one of the better options. I will be coming out with more research for free here so give me a follow if you enjoyed.
AMEX:EQLSLong
by sihen999
BTC SHORT ALTERNATIVEHi everyone! As traders/investors we should always: -keep in mind different scenarios -count risks in both sides -be ready for everything) It is still a possibility for downside move. We can still be in last Wave 5 of 4 after a complex Wave 4 of 4 in a shape of irregular flat Also look at current chart on lower TF. Its very likely that upsidemove from 25000 to 28500 is a zigzag (A=B) that set a Wave 2 of 5 of 4, so we could see a sharp decline next week Lets be ready for everything and be friends with risk management
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by PauloRicci
BTC 1W hidden Head and Shoulders pattern shown on 2h Looking at the weekly chart, I noticed a clear H&S pattern on VWAP. VWAP is an intraday indicator, but it can show a pattern in larger frames, like now. I was trying to find a way to draw and measure it clearly on commonly used timeframes, but it is most apparent on a 2h chart. As you can see on VPVR on the right, the neckline is below the 27100 resistance, and if it breaks it, there is a gap down to 25100. But the full potential of the pattern targets 23100. On my trend wave indicator, the weekly trend reached a local top on the 17th and turned bearish at the +60 line. Right now, it is right above the +50 line. That area often acts as support and resistance. And here on 2h, the trend is reversing right above the zero line, which is also strong support. Still, since this timeframe is not usual, this could also mean that trend is being rejected from it. The chart is bearish. Volume is low. But the price is what it is. Trade with the trend. But it doesn't hurt to be prepared. Right?
Short
by RockinHood
Cross-breeding of systems. BTC D for example.Experimental review. Hi. There is a lot of debate going on on bitcoin dominance right now and I thought I wanted to get the most out of this picture. I came up with the idea to take the weekly Renko chart for parsing and leave almost all my usual indicators except EMA (it is not needed here). And VFI LF is also unnecessary. So what do we observe, besides a clearly visible very strong support around 39.8%? We have a fresh green cube with a pin bar. 1. Funny, the Renko cube went exactly where the clouds change was last time! 2. Next, Renko's cube climbs Kijun-Sen line for the third time. Believe me, not for it to serve as resistance anymore. Only as support. All tests passed. Chikou span (light green lag line) is looking up. Also a good sign. 3. What about the exact same exit upwards? On the edge of the clouds? Hypothesis! But let's note. That perhaps BTC D is flying upwards to a certain "cloud exchange" point. That's around April 1. 4. Devil, but that looks like a bull flag on a stochastic. 5. SQZMOM is heading steadily to the bullish side I'd say a minimum of three weeks, a month max we need before the first green bar. As this is an experimental approach, there will be neither a "long" nor a "short" mark. Let's see together if this kind of reasoning works? Does reliability improve by combining Renko and Ichimoku? We'll review this chart in second half of the spring 2023. OK? Are you interested in this? Thank you for your attention!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by averkie_skila
9
Q&As: non-market dataThere's some curious personalities that trade (at least claim to trade) based on news, fundamental metrics, alt data n stuff. I don't mean invest, I mean trade. Well that looks like a skill to be proud off, superstimuli always feels cool aye? Good thing tho there no real reason in doing it all. The most precise term to explain non-market data is, well, everything that ain't have a direct involvement with what happens inside the order matching servers of a given exchange. So open interest is in fact a great example of non-market data. The one & only real purpose for using all this data is to know (not to guess/predict/forecast, not to even anticipate), but to understand when the ACTION is going to happen. If you think deeper, ultimately it's all about asset selection to satisfy whatever purpose you got. if you ever got caught yourself feeling fooled when media release a bad info but prices go up, or media release a good info but prices go down, it's ok. It doesn't work that way, direction of prices can't be affected this way. Direction of prices is the result of how buyers meet sellers which is based on +inf number of factors, where a non-market data is simply just one of these +inf factors. It exclusively provokes action, meat, hype, momentum, volatility, whatever you call it. What's happening is that things start to happen very fast. Without a trigger event, the trading activity would've been the same, it just would've take longer to unwind. News don't change the structure, they make it all happen faster, that's it. Examples of non-market data that can be used to expect action: 1) Trading schedule, eg the US, EU opening times; 2) Economic releases; 3) Commitment of traders reports; 4) Significant news; 5) Changes in yield curves; 6) "Fundamental" stock data; 7) Open interest; 8) etc etc etc One really important thing to add is that, just like trading activity is understood in context (other resolutions), sizing also includes context (equity control, market impact), the same way every non-market data event lives in the context (previous releases, other releases, overall economy). You're interesting not in a new per se, but rather in what does it mean in the world. For example, inflation reports don't mean much when the rates are low, but when the rates are high, they trigger significant activity. That's the area where statistical learning, automated learning, "machine" learning, 'Really' starts to make sense business-wise. The ultimate goal is to create a system that will process every kind of data you have (NLP and TDA should help) and output the tickers with raising/already risen levels of interest.
CBOT:ZN1!Education
by gorx1
BTC in accumulation from 4/2021. Long-term bullish triangle!Today I want to present my main scenario. As long as 37400 holds I give this scenario the highest probabillity. I have identified an expanded triangle in the WB of the triagnle. Foundation for this scenario is WB which made HH and WC which has corrective nature and was unable to make LL thus it made HL. Now we are moving up in WD which is a complex correction with heavily overlapping structure. It is however still making HHs and HLs. As long this is the case we should be bullish. We have already seen some bullish indications such as D engulfing and swept liquidity below 39k. The probabillity of this scenario increases if we manage to get the confirmations labelled on the chart. If this scenario is correct we should finished the triagnle by summer and ultimately move to ATHs towards the end of the year (and perhaps reached the mythic 100k). We are forming our gameplan based on the indentified patterns which give us higher probabillity (they have been proven statistically significant) which in the long run should give us an edge (alfa = overperformance) in the markets. However, we should also be prepared for the alternative scenarios with lower probabillity so that we dont suffer large losses or get wiped out, even if it means limiting our profits and cutting losses when we are proven wrong. As TWC says, the only thing you can control in the markets is how much are you going to lose.
FTX:BTCPERPLong
by Tradern53
2
Unconfirmed bearish scenario for BTC. Watch out!Today I present to you inverted W chart of BTCUSD. We can see clear impulse down. Because we can count five waves we should form a scenario where PA will correct the impulse. So far we have gotten a reaction from lows and a HL which is the first indications of reversal. To confirm this idea we should see break of wave B of the recent correction in the channel and break of W4 of the large impulse. Moreover, this break would also confirm a Head and shoulders formation. When this happens, we should adopt this idea as a main scenario. Until then we should prefer bullish scenarios which will result in trend continuation. The move from the lows also doenst look that much impulsive and I tend to indentify it as a corrective move which supports the bullish scenarios. We are forming our gameplan based on the indentified patterns which give us higher probabillity (they have been proven statistically significant) which in the long run should give us an edge (alfa = overperformance) in the markets.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Tradern53
3
BTC is in a corrective move, key levels to watchI have spent this morning analysing BTC and I have come up wth multiple counts. This count however, is the clearest and simplest one. I am having a hard time counting the move from 69k (nice) as a five-wave move. It´s possible but I give it a lower probability since it´s not as clear as this count. Therefore, I am setting an alert for the trendline break and untill then I will spend time perfecting my own strategy and studying fundamentals (thats why we are in crypto right? Not only for the money - although money is nice). These prices suit as good opportunites for hodl buys but the most money is always made trading altcoins. For that we need BTC to be safe above supports (above the said trendline at least). So as I said, until that happens we are free to spend time away from charts :).
FTX:BTCPERPLong
by Tradern53
1
Is Etherium leaving the nest?Currently and since a few days, Etherium (even the classic one) is up, while Bitcoin and co are unprecedentedly down. The gap between the two movements is the widest in favor of the former since long time, and is definitely the most telling given the recent moves. Technical indicators are even showing that BTC could find support as low as 45K. Of course, this is bad news for an industry largely hanging on the reputation of the father of crypto, and one which was a few days ago celebrating the IPO of Coinbase. Amid this downward storm, ETH was breaking the highest mark in, what it looks like, a breakaway from the tradition following its parent. The maturity of ETH as an independent entity was long in the making, in reality rather than on the charts. Etherium is the basis of the infrastructure of most other coins, the home of many decentralized blockchain apps, and the underlying technology fuelling the recent NFT bubble. It has the other benefit of not being in the attacking zone as BTC, being considered at times as the black horse, even if it is actually the second in the race from the beginning. This aura of being "alternative" rises from the extreme popularity of BTC, the latter of which is becoming extremely volatile due to its extreme success. Nothing keeps going up indefinitely as corrections will always happen. If the BTC graph was that of a srtock, we would consider it an extreme success, but since almost everyone has unrealistic expectations of it, a slight correction is considered a disaster. Keeping this in mind, I would be careful investing too much in BTC because it is overloaded, targeted, and, arguably unlike Etherium, unsupported by a utility ecosystem. My long term view is that as confidence in BTC starts to fade due to its volatility, Etherium would start to emerge more as an adult rather than an adolescent. That is until they meet somewhere in the middle. In short, I expect the gap between BTC and ETH to diminish on the long term.
KRAKEN:ETHUSDLong
by MontyMacht
2
$TIGR bearish or bullish?$TIGR is currently on two pattern indicators. Macro it appears to be heading towards the top of a downward channel. This would appear bullish and a break of the channel could lead to the start of a Wave 3/5 the largest wave. Alternatively there is a bear flag forming on the hourly. The downward trend of the last two months could have a 5th leg and I would project a bounce of the top of the downward channel. I made some resistance points for each theory. Orange are Fib based resistance zones and red are where volume resistance will meet Fib resistance. A break through of any resistance above the channel is extremely bullish.
NASDAQ:TIGR
by NapoleonStockS
What goes up must come down. BTC has taken a ride since 2015, I watched from the sidelines as more and more people became overcome with the excitement of this new currency. The “gap” up’s when it took hold and blasted off to north of 20,000 then 30k then 40k, were unprecedented. I’ve been involved with investments since 1997 and I have seen nothing like this and won’t ever again. I do think bitcoin will eventually make the 100,000 mark, when that happens is any bodies guess. Healthy investments do not skyrocket to all time highs and stay there like this seems to have done. The “gaps” this needs to fill are down in the 11,000 range I believe? If these “gaps” per say don’t get filled, any move higher becomes incredibly dangerous for a landslide melt down. Every market in the world has seen this sort of behavior. Here is how big money managers think “buy when it’s low and sell when it’s high” I know that may seem Cliché, but it’s true in any investment market. What holds this coin price at its highs is continuous buying but not only continuous buying but a stable source of new buyers. When bitcoin reaches a high of highs after racing upwards that of a Saturn rocket it will surely endure the consequences of a parabolic climb which is a generational meltdown. We must remeber that China has been mining some 80% of the worlds bitcoin over the past 10 years..if this doesn’t scare anybody I don’t know where you live. If any populous or economy invests more than an alternative invenstment weighting in bitcoin or any other speculative investment, they risk destroying their entire economic system and collapsing. If one doesn’t see the automatic buying and selling movement and electronic support countermeasures big miners or holders of the coin take to ensure this parabolic soar to inevitable highs you aren’t looking close enough. Everybody risks losing and losing big. It seems the masses want bitcoin to reach enormous highs, preaching it will replace modern currency driving the price upwards of 100,000 per coin. I am a realist and while I do believe bitcoin and other crypto currencies will achieve great value and use in the future it will not replace the worlds fiat currencies. Be careful and realistic. If you’ve been hoddling your coins for years you have done very well for yourself yes, however, remeber how one “locks” in profits, they sell and hold “cash” or what ever stable fiat currency they live with. This is not a free ride and not everybody running this massive machine has good intentions. If China decides to capture and lock in profit at any given time, it will cause a cataclysmic disaster and melt down of an entire system. Don’t be caught holding the bag at the top. When PayPal said they were all in processing bitcoin it seemingly shot north with supersonic speeds. People who wouldn’t invent in an index fund for it was too much risk are now investing millions in something that seems too good to be true. I am not saying bitcoin will not be useful or even saying it won’t survive, I am simply saying be CAFEFUL and REALISTIC. This bubble has consequences just like the real estate financial bubble of the early 2000’s. The USA had the means at that time to inject trillions into a collapsing system...we have no more levers to pull or safety valves to open. I predict a gap cover in the 10,000-11,500 range before then skyrocketing to new highs in the 40-50,000 range before starting the fibbinaci cycle all over again. The last up cycle will be very evident by which the volume of sellers will spike to all time highs within minutes. That may be next month next year or in 5 years IDK....but it will happen. The stock market has stop gaps to ensure panic selling doesn’t destroy a healthy market, bitcoin has no such stop gaps or safety valves to ensure complete and total collapse of a system. And...the most important one. Bitcoin has no centralized governing body or enforcement to ensure criminals can’t steal or destroy a system in which so many have put faith. It’s the ultimate Dichotomy, Bitcoin excites so many because of its decentralized governing systems however those same Reasons we all “love to love” bitcoin could very well be the same reasons it sets up to cause global economic catastrophe. My prediction again is this...falls to fill CME gaps with fake trend reversals costing traders millions chasing the bottom but. Dollar cost average your buys and lock in your gains. 11,000 back up to 50,000 then back down to 24,000 before pushing up to 75,000. 100,000 is the price that triggers a global sell off meltdown and bring financial devistation to the greedy. Be careful out there. Diversify and have a plan.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by renderfy
1
How To Draw Fibonacci Trading WE WILL BE USING FIBONACCI RATIOS A LOT IN OUR TRADING SO YOU BETTER LEARN TO LOVE IT LIKE YOUR FAVOURITE PIZZA. Fibonacci is a huge subject and there are many different Fibonacci studies with weird-sounding names but we’re going to stick to two: retracement and extension. The ratios arise from the following number series: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144… This series of numbers is derived by starting with 0 followed by 1 and then adding 0 + 1 to get 1, the third number. Then, adding the second and third number (1 + 1) to get 2, the fourth number, and so on. After the first few numbers in the sequence, if you measure the ratio of any number to the succeeding higher number, you get .618. For example, 34 divided by 55 equals .618. SOUNDS COMPLICATED RIGHT? So lets use some code to calculate it on the chart for us. The indicators will automatically show the levels & long short signals at the bottom. THE MOST IMPORTANT FIB LEVELS ARE 38.2 50 61.8
OANDA:US2000USDLong
by CeoCodes
2
JKS - bright future for solar ahead?With ongoing worldwide trends towards clean energy, there is good potential for solar sector to shine in the years ahead. After rather significant selloff recently some ideas are trying to put a bottom finally, and NYSE:JKS is one of them. Good earnings released today and breakout through neckline of inverse H&S provide initial signs of reversal. I entered position on breakout today, and plan to hold as one of core holdings for next year, with some short-term trading in and out.
NYSE:JKSLong
by Silvestrov