$GRT IS ABOUT TO GO Graph ( JSE:GRT ) is about to go. Zoom in and out and see it for yourself. History will always repeat itself. You can see the short term targets
ALTS
You can't unsee itThere is something to be said for the simplicity.
The historical price action is clear.
The RSI trend/cycles are just as clear.
There is not much space left for compression.
A BIG MOVE IS COMING.
The only question is, are you ready?
Ethereum Is About to Start Making Its Move to $4100Trading Fam,
Lot's of good patterns occurring on the crypto charts recently, Ethereum is no exception. Here you can see a valid inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed. 85% of the time, these patterns play out.
If we do break that neckline to the upside, I would suggest that $4100 will come fairly quickly. We do have a few resistance areas ahead of us where I expect some pause. But this will only give the market enough time to recognize they may be missing the rocket ride and hop in.
If we don't break that neckline this week, we could pull back for another week. But I think by the end of June our neckline will break and we'll be on our way.
Best,
Stew
BTC.D forecast until Autust 2025This is an update of previously made forecast.
Now is a reversal week. Some alts may start running this week. But the main alts bullrun will start next week. Altseason will come in waves as usually with main events happening in July-August 2025.
Some lagging altcoins in the outskirts of crypto markets may show incredible profits in the end of August and will mark the end of 2025 summer altseason.
Don't get driven away, don't use leverage. In September we may see DXY reversal and bear market start. This will be epic for leverage and making fortunes.
For 1D charts look my Profile 'Also on'
BTC Dominance looking real heavy up hereWouldn't be surprised in the least if we see a freefall on BTC Dominance over the next few months.
Of course there is no guarantee, and things may look different in a month, however as it stands, I think there is a potential ALT cycle on the cards for 2025.
RSI needs a reset, amongst other things.
New cycle growth - GTFO moment soonNo analysis, simply an observation of what the market has been preparing for for many years. Since 2017, the ICO era, since then the market has matured to a completely new level.
Be careful with following Ben Cowen and other social influencers.
Given the market maturity since 2017, I believe what we call alts season will turn into a slow steady growth, last time it took a year, this time I think it will be the entire Trump's term if not longer.
GRT | Altcoins | MASSIVE UPSIDE Potential on The GraphAnother altcoin that has great upside potential is the Graph BINANCE:GRTUSDT
The Graph from a weekly perspective may seem like there's not much action, but if you zoon in to the daily timeframe we see a different picture.
WEEKLY:
VS DAILY:
We can see anything from a +40% increase to a -30% dip in just a few days; a picture that is lost when we look at the weekly. This is IDEAL for swing trading.
Once you've established the general direction from the MACRO, swing trades become very viable (spot). If your patient enough to wait for a few days, a +30% could easily be achieved within a two week timespan.
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BINANCE:GRTUSDT
ALTCOINS made a 1D Golden Cross. First since U.S. elections.Crypto Total Market Cap just formed the first 1D Golden Cross ince November 6th 2024, which was right after the U.S. elections. The rally that followed made new highs. Since the Bear Cycle bottom, that is the 4th 1D Golden Cross and the minimum the market surged around such formation was +73.10%. This means that we can expected a 4.03T market cap at least.
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TOTAL3 – Altcoin Market Cap (Excluding BTC & ETH) Weekly TF 2025Summary
TOTAL3 is currently in a macro bullish cycle and undergoing a mid-cycle correction. The chart presents a Fibonacci-based structural roadmap with 3 Take Profit zones, identifying both correction supports and breakout targets. There is a high probability of short-term downside before a significant altcoin rally.
🌈 Chart Context
Fibonacci Retracement (Primary Leg):
100% = 285.3B
0% = 1.16T
Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension
A = 285.3B
B = 775B
C = 464.11B
Price as of analysis: ~845.62B
Key Technical Observations
Support Levels:
61.8% Fib Retracement = 618.5B
Strong Confluence Zone: Fib Retracement 48% + Fib Extension 50–61.8% (highlighted on chart)
38.2% Fib Retracement = 824.38B
Resistance Levels:
951.73B: 23.6% Retracement + 100% Extension – strong resistance zone before $1T psychological level
Take Profit Zones:
1 TP (1.1T) = 127% Fib Extension (Upper leg of parallel extension)
2 TP (1.28T) = 161.8% Fib Extension
3 TP (1.7T) = -61.8% Fib Retracement and 261.8% Extension confluence zone
Pattern & Projection:
The structure suggests a possible correction phase to lower support before continuation.
Bullish continuation expected after corrective phase, shown by the projected dotted path.
Structure: Bullish structure with healthy correction in mid-phase of the macro uptrend.
Fundamental Context
Altcoin Lag: TOTAL3 remains ~40% below its ATH, while BTC and ETH have already hit new highs.
Liquidity Shift Expected: Altcoin capital rotation tends to follow after BTC dominance stabilizes or drops.
Macro Backdrop:
Fed expected to cut rates later in 2025
Stablecoin legislation and ETF narratives building altcoin trust
Institutional inflows are slowly diversifying from BTC to ETH and large-cap alts
These suggest a possible shakeout or deeper correction before altseason breakout gains strength.
Bias & Strategy Implication:
Bias: Bullish Mid-Term – Correction Before Continuation
Expected Scenario: Pullback to strong support zones (824B–733B–618B), followed by a sustained breakout toward 1.1T–1.7T.
Invalidation: Weekly close below 618B may delay bullish structure and extend correction.
Strategy:
Long entries at support zones with tight invalidation
Scaling out near TP1, TP2, TP3 based on market momentum
Philosophical View
Patience is the virtue of the second leg in a macro trend. The correction serves to eject the impatient, reprice risk, and strengthen conviction. When TOTAL3 rises from deep support, it will be not just price but confidence that rallies.
Related Reference Charts
TOTAL Market Cap Structural Breakout:
TOTAL2 Altcoin Chart with Fibonacci Path:
✅ Tags
#TOTAL3 #AltcoinMarket #Fibonacci #Altseason #CryptoCorrection #CryptoMacro #TechnicalAnalysis #BullishOutlook #MidCycleCorrection #Crypto2025
⚠️ Notes & Disclaimers
This analysis is educational and not financial advice. Markets are inherently risky. Do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
ATOM | Sleeping GIANT Altcoin Gem 1️⃣ATOM is probably one of my favorite altcoins at the moment.
If you look at ATOM from a macro timeframe such as the weekly, it seems like there is barely any hope and that it's just been one big liquidity run.
And although ATOM has retraced nearly 92% since it's ATH, we see a much brighter picture when we look at the daily, or 3D timeframe.
______________________
BINANCE:ATOMUSDT
3️⃣ Altseason and the US "Crypto-Reserve"3️⃣ Altseason and the US "Crypto-Reserve"
❗️ Disclaimer: This idea is only a part of an article with a forecast for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market for 2025-2028. To fully and completely understand what is being discussed here, please refer to the root idea via the link:
1️⃣ Main Idea: Analysis of US Treasury Documents
TradingView recently added an interesting new ticker: $CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSBTC. It represents the ratio of the total market capitalization of the top-125 cryptocurrencies, excluding the top-10 by capitalization (OTHERS), to the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC).
What does it measure?
OTHERS (Total capitalization of other altcoins): This is the aggregated market capitalization of cryptocurrencies that are not in the top-10 by capitalization. In other words, it's a metric that allows tracking the dynamics of "small" and "medium" altcoins, excluding the influence of the largest players (such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other large altcoins in the top-10).
BTC (Bitcoin Market Capitalization): This is a standard metric showing the total value of all circulating Bitcoins.
Thus, OTHERSBTC shows how "small" and "medium" altcoins generally relate to Bitcoin in terms of market capitalization. Why is this needed? This ticker is an important indicator for assessing the "altcoin season" and the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market:
⬆️ Growth in OTHERSBTC: Means that the market capitalization of "other" altcoins is growing faster than Bitcoin's market capitalization (or falling slower). This often indicates the beginning or continuation of an "altcoin season," when investors start shifting funds from Bitcoin to riskier but potentially more profitable altcoins. This can be a sign that the market is becoming more risk-on.
⬇️ Decline in OTHERSBTC: Indicates that Bitcoin is growing faster (or falling slower) than "other" altcoins. This may suggest that investors prefer safer assets, or that Bitcoin's dominance is strengthening. This often happens during market corrections or when investors seek refuge in Bitcoin.
📈 Analysis of the main chart: OTHERSBTC
The fact that the OTHERSBTC index has been in a downtrend since the beginning of 2022, I think, is not difficult to understand:
A decline in OTHERSBTC directly means that the "altcoin season" has not fully arrived or has been absent since the beginning of 2022.
For a full-fledged "altseason," OTHERSBTC should show sustained growth, meaning that "small" and "medium" altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin in terms of capitalization growth. This is not happening yet.
Current market state: The decline in OTHERSBTC since 2022 confirms that the market has been in a bear phase, and after that – in a recovery phase where Bitcoin leads, and altcoins (especially those not in the top-10) are recovering slower or not at all.
Thus, the decline in OTHERSBTC since the beginning of 2022 is a direct reflection of the bear market, decreased risk appetite, and increased Bitcoin dominance during a sideways period for the rest of the crypto market. For a potential "altseason," we will need to observe a change in this trend, when CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSBTC begins to show sustained growth.
✴️ The Concept of a US "Crypto-Reserve": Not Exclusion, but Absorption
In the face of an impending economic storm and the inevitable "cleansing" of the crypto market, it becomes clear that the US government does not intend to completely destroy digital assets. Instead, a multi-step strategy is being developed for their integration and subordination under its control. This involves not just a set of rules, but the formation of a full-fledged "National Crypto-Reserve."
This concept is not new. The history of finance shows that "private currencies" that do not meet reliability requirements always lead to instability and ultimately are either absorbed or replaced by regulated government equivalents. (As TBAC notes, "history shows that 'private money' that does not meet the requirements of NQA leads to financial instability and, as such, is highly undesirable" – DA&TM, p. 3). When Bitcoin collapses under the pressure of a global economic crisis and massive liquidations in 2025, and "high-beta" altcoins bleed out, the US government and its affiliated institutions will begin to buy them up at a discount. The goal is not to destroy digital assets, but to accumulate them in this "National Crypto-Reserve" .
And here lies another, deeper meaning: this process is not just about buying assets; it's about testing and mastering new technologies on "live hamsters," meaning the current participants of the crypto market. This entire "Wild West" of decentralized finance, DeFi, NFTs, and rapidly changing altcoins serves as a giant laboratory. It is here, under real market conditions and the pressure of huge capital, that the system studies how blockchains, smart contracts, consensus mechanisms work, how quickly "digital" infections spread, and how effectively to manage liquidity in decentralized environments. All these experiments are, in essence, paid for by the crypto- hamsters -enthusiasts themselves, while the state and the global establishment receive invaluable data for building their future digital economy.
This "soup-kit" of digital assets for the US Crypto-Reserve will include, first and foremost, Bitcoin as the primary "digital gold" – an asset that TBAC itself already calls a "store of value." This will allow the government not only to control a significant portion of Bitcoin but also to use it in future "tokenized" financial products. In addition to BTC, the reserve will include carefully selected altcoins under US jurisdiction or of strategic importance for the new, controlled digital landscape. Theoretically, these could be assets that have clear issuers or are centralized enough for easy "absorption" and regulation. This list may include: ETH, XRP, SOL, HBAR, XCH, LINK, UNI, DOGE, OP, AVAX, MATIC, AAVE, LDO, BAT, NEAR, SUI, ALGO, ADA, and others that may be deemed "best of the best" in their understanding.
Thus, the "crypto-reserve" will become the foundation for a new digital financial system , where control and stability will first be ensured by the "nationalization" of key digital assets. This will allow the state not only to manage significant volumes of digital funds but also to use them for future "tokenized" financial products that will be issued on "private, permissioned blockchains managed by central banks" (see DA&TM pp. 7 and 14). This is how "wild" crypto will be tamed and integrated into the traditional system, losing its decentralized essence but gaining "legitimacy" under state supervision.
📈 Analysis of the chart: OTHERS
In this capitalization index, the value of the top-10 coins was removed from the top-125. It is also quite informative and convincing, showing that the capitalization is -50% below its 2021 highs.
I will also add a few altcoin charts here, namely: DOT, NEAR, ETH. For all charts, a further decline of another -70% from current levels is expected, approximately by early 2026.
📈 ETH Chart. Forecast 2025-2028
📈 NEAR Chart. Forecast 2025-2028
📈 DOT Chart. Forecast 2025-2028
📊 General chart description
Ethereum and NEAR behave very similarly, only CRYPTO:NEARUSD is more volatile and does not hold up as well as ETH. INDEX:ETHUSD today is -47% below its ATH, while NEAR is -88%. Nevertheless, they are at least roughly in the middle of the trading range since 2021, whereas CRYPTO:DOTUSD look much weaker than the top coins, and have been languishing at the bottom for about two years.
Moreover, after a thorough analysis of current prices and historical highs of 2021-2022 for coins from the top-100 that existed during that period, very few of them are trading today above or near their 2021-2022 peaks. List of coins from the top-100 that existed in 2021-2022 and whose current price has updated the ATH of that period:
XRP (Ripple): Its current price of $2.2 exceeds its 2021 ATH (~$1.96).
UNUS SED LEO (LEO): Price $8.65 exceeds its 2022 ATH (~$8.14 in Feb. 2022).
TRON (TRX): Price $0.266 exceeds its 2021 ATH (~$0.18).
BNB (Binance Coin): Price $660 is very close to its 2021 ATH (~$690).
SOL (Solana): Because the list is so small, I had to partially count Solana, as it indeed updated its 2021 high at $260, but today trades at -45% lower, around $160.
Thus, if we strictly adhere to the criterion of "trading above 2021-2022 highs," then out of the top-100 that existed during that period, it's only five, again, FIVE alts! The bottom line is that Bitcoin, two native exchange tokens (BNB, LEO), the "Ethereum killer" TRON, the Trojan horse XRP, and let's include SOL, have updated their 2021-2022 ATHs and are trading above or near their historical highs out of ALL TOP-100 coins. Only some alts from the top-100 are somewhere in the middle of the three-year trading range, and the rest have been looking for the bottom for two years.
While influencers have been talking about some altcoin season for the third year, ATOM today is -90% below its 2022 ATH! And NEAR is -88%, DOT is -92%, and CHIA is -99% from its ATH, and this list can go on and on. That's all you need to know about the so-called "alt season" and "bull market" in crypto over the last three years.
❗️ Disclaimer: This idea is only a part of an article with a forecast for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market for 2025-2028. To learn more, refer to the root idea via the link:
1️⃣ Main Idea: Analysis of US Treasury Documents
Sol, setting!? or will it rise!
In our last Solana ( CRYPTOCAP:SOL ) update, we discussed the potential for a bounce and posed the critical question: would it be a retest or a reclaim? That distinction is now front and center as price action unfolds.
The 141 area remains the level bulls must defend. A clean reaction here, ideally with a supportive pattern, would create favorable conditions for upside continuation. However, if price returns above 169 , the current impulsive structure downward would be invalidated and a recount would be warranted, that could also be the end of the correction.
Zooming out, the bigger question is whether we are in the C wave of a flat correction. If that’s the case, then this impulse Should be the final move before a change in trend. Conversely, an impulse shouldn't be taken for granted nor lightly, I could set the stage for further down side. If a C wave, this pattern could set the stage for a powerful move after it completes.
In simpler terms:
If bulls hold 141 and reclaim momentum, the structure could shift bullish quickly.
If this is a flat, the C wave down is still unfolding, and we may need to endure one more leg lower before a true trend reversal.
Either way, patience is key. Let the chart print clarity.
Can JTO pull a BNB All-Time-High Move??BNB made a similar pattern that led to it's previous ATH.
Since we are still waiting on the new ETH a time highs, followed by altseason, we can expect to see altcoins beginning to increase when ETH trades sideways. More on that here :
We can also expect to see rallies across other altcoins:
and
But before we see a glorious altseason, ETH needs to start moving to the upside as a starting point.
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BINANCE:JTOUSDT
BINANCE:BNBUSDT
$ETH Analysis — Correction Incoming?Summary:
After a strong ~100% rally in ETH, price hit a major resistance zone near $2734.78, triggering a significant sell-off, likely driven by algorithmic profit-taking. Now, the market is poised for a healthy correction before another potential leg up.
📉 What's Next for Ethereum?
🔍 Expecting a Correction of 7% to 25%
Based on technical structure and indicator behavior, ETH is likely to retrace to one of the two key zones:
✅ Primary Buy Zone ("Most Likely"): $2297.20
This zone aligns with previous structure support.
It’s where the price may form a higher low and resume its upward trend.
Ideal for opening a swing long with a tight risk-reward ratio.
🔥 Deeper Correction Opportunity: $1779.58
While less likely, a drop to this level would be a major long opportunity.
Aligns with historical demand and long-term support levels.
Also intersects with the yellow trendlines suggesting trend-based support zones.
📊 Why This Correction Makes Sense:
Weekly Money Flow Index (MFI) is Dropping:
MFI divergence suggests money is flowing out, weakening bullish momentum.
A trigger wave is forming, often preceding price corrections.
Algo Profit-Taking is Done:
Smart money likely exited around $2734.78 (highlighted in chart).
They’ll need to accumulate again at lower levels before the next rally.
📈 Potential Upside Targets:
If ETH respects the structure and finds support around $2297 or deeper, we could see a rally toward $3296.85 — a key Fibonacci extension and psychological level.
🧘♂️ Reminder:
No emotional entries. Let the price come to you. Trust the setup and stick to your plan.
📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just a breakdown of my trading thesis. Always manage your risk.
AKT/USDT Analysis💥 CSEMA:AKT - Swing Long Plan After 30% Correction 💥
AKT faced heavy selling pressure around the weekly pivot at $2.0640 , leading to a significant correction of nearly **30%**. The big question now: **Is it time to open a swing long?**
Here’s my take👇
Although we’ve already seen a 30% drop, that doesn’t mean the downside is over . For a high-conviction swing long, patience is key. I’m watching **three key levels** to build a position safely — no FOMO here.
🔹 Long Area 1 : $1.1291 (25% allocation)
🔹 Long Area 2 : $0.9722 (35% allocation)
🔹 Long Area 3 : $0.8234 (40% allocation)
💡 This is my ultimate swing long setup . Scaling in at these levels provides a better risk-reward profile rather than chasing the bounce.
But what if price only taps **Long Area 1** and then reverses? That’s fine too. The priority is **capital preservation and strategic entries**, not catching every single move.
✅ Focus: Make more with less risk
❌ Avoid: Emotional entries and overexposure
📌 Not financial advice. Do your own research. Trade safe! 🧠💰
#AKT #SwingTrade #CryptoAnalysis #TradingStrategy #DYOR #Altcoins
Altcoins The Moon AwaitsLike always, everything is clearly outlined on the charts :
- As a trader, it's crucial to follow logic and technical analysis. If you get caught up in the news and listen to everyone on Twitter, you won't last long.
- The first major altcoin rally was in 2018, pushing the market to $300 billion. This level later acted as a key support throughout the 2022–2023 bear market.
- The last all-time high for the crypto market (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) reached $1.15 trillion in 2021. ( blue doted vertical line )
- This all-time high was retested in December 2024, with this ATH acting as strong resistance. ( second blue doted vertical line )
- The next move could be a breakout above this resistance. According to Fibonacci projections, the altcoin market has the potential to reach $4 trillion.
While the spotlight remains on Bitcoin and ETFs, altcoins could catch up with a sudden and powerful surge, so make sure you’re not left behind.
Hodl!
Happy Tr4Ding !
ETH | New ATH on the cards | Fibonacci $7K TARGET Ethereum is gearing up towards the upside and we're seeing another resistance zone being crushed.
While BTC is trading sideways, we can expect ETH to play catch-up:
Don't miss yesterday's update on DOT:
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DOG Main Trend. Reversal Zones 05/29/2025Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. The chart shows key reversal zones in the horizontal channel, and when exiting it. For clarity, percentages are shown from the skin reversal zone. This is convenient for understanding the risk and potential profit in long and short work. You can also work in spot from long, from key zones (more relevant, as margin trading on assets of such liquidity, is extremely destructive, due to price slippage under the market, but already on such assets by a huge percentage, for your liquidation (accumulation of liquidity-benefit of gambling addicts in general).
Now the price has hit the resistance of the internal channel, that is, the zone of the “main liquid” price movement. From the reversal, local profit is significant, therefore, when working, observe risk management and wait for a breakthrough of this resistance level (you can place a trigger order), or wait for a rollback (if there is one), for example, to the median of the channel.
The horizontal channel itself is reformatted into a potential “microphone” (what was half a year ago on bitcoin, with resistance to the 72 thousand zone, and liquidity collection 53-58).
PNUT projects to a Dollar.TWO Clear patterns
Double bottom
and a Bull Flag.
Two respective Log Projections for you to consider.
This suggest strong Solana performance is incoming and another round of #Memecoin frenzy.
ETH 2025: $3000 is Key to Escaping Ethereum's Consolidation TrapEthereum (ETH) May Remain Consolidated Throughout 2025 if it Fails to Hit $3000: Here’s Why!
May 27, 2025 – Ethereum (ETH), the world's second-largest cryptocurrency, finds itself at a critical juncture. After a period of significant volatility and notable gains, ETH's price has entered a prolonged consolidation phase. While numerous bullish signals point towards a potential surge, a formidable barrier stands at the $3000 mark. Failure to decisively conquer this level could see Ethereum locked in a sideways trading pattern throughout much of 2025, deferring hopes of a new explosive bull run. This article delves into the intricate factors dictating Ethereum's price trajectory, exploring the tug-of-war between bullish aspirations and the stubborn realities of market resistance.
Section 1: The Current State of Ethereum - A Prolonged Consolidation
As of late May 2025, Ethereum continues to trade within a defined range, struggling to make a sustained break in either direction. The price has been attempting to pierce pivotal resistance zones, with recent attempts this month failing to hold despite decent volume. Some market observers note that Ethereum is currently consolidating between the $2,400 and $2,750 range. This period of consolidation is not unusual in cryptocurrency markets, often representing a "breather" after significant price movements or a period of price discovery as market participants digest new information and sentiment.
Historical chart patterns suggest that Ethereum may have entered a crucial price range, an "accumulation zone," which could prevent a significant breakout for several months. Certain technical indicators, which help identify trends when growth rates fluctuate, show ETH price entering bands that have historically preceded consolidation periods, sometimes lasting nearly a year, before the next major bullish wave. Given that ETH has already consolidated for approximately four months, another similar period could be on the horizon if key resistance levels are not breached.
This consolidation is a focal point for investors and analysts alike. On one hand, it can be seen as a period of building strength before the next upward move. On the other, prolonged consolidation can lead to investor fatigue and a potential drift lower if bullish catalysts fail to materialize. The market is currently in a state of anticipation, closely watching for signals that could indicate the end of this sideways movement. Ethereum's price is currently hovering in the mid-$2,500s, recovering slightly after brief consolidation and respecting key support levels.
Section 2: The $3000 Hurdle - A Critical Inflection Point
The $3000 level for Ethereum is more than just a number; it represents a significant psychological and technical barrier. A decisive break above this level would likely instill strong bullish sentiment, potentially paving the way for further gains towards previous highs and beyond. Conversely, a repeated failure to surmount $3000 could confirm the strength of the resistance, leading to a loss of upward momentum and an extended period of consolidation throughout 2025.
Market sentiment often coalesces around such round numbers. A breakthrough can trigger a fear of missing out, attracting fresh capital. Failure, however, can lead to disappointment and profit-taking, reinforcing the consolidation range. As of May 2025, ETH is expected by some to trade between $2,400 and $2,900, with a monthly close above $2,750 strengthening the case for retesting $3,000 in the coming quarter. Some projections suggest ETH might hover near the $3000 resistance in the summer months, potentially seeing profit-taking before a new range is established. If ETH fails to rise above the ascending trend line it has held since mid-2022, and with technicals like a potential bearish "Death Cross" (where a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term moving average on weekly charts), the price could remain restricted below $2500 for a while, making the $3000 target even more challenging in the near term.
Section 3: Bullish Signals Amidst Consolidation - The Hope for a Breakout
Despite the consolidation, several bullish signals offer hope for an eventual breakout and a more dynamic 2025 for Ethereum.
Altseason Hopes
The term "altseason" refers to a market phase where alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) experience significant price surges, often outperforming Bitcoin. Ethereum, as the leading altcoin, plays a crucial role in signaling or even triggering such a season.
Recent technical analysis suggests that Ethereum has reclaimed a key technical level – the mid-line of a significant channel indicator on the two-week chart. This moving average-based band tracks long-term momentum. Historically, closing above this mid-line has preceded sharp price gains for ETH and marked the start of altseasons. For instance, after surpassing this mid-line in 2020-2021, ETH rallied dramatically. A similar pattern in late 2023 saw ETH climb significantly within a year. As of May 2025, the upper band of this channel represents the next significant resistance. A breakout above this could target previous cycle highs.
The impact on the broader altcoin market has also been historically significant. The combined market cap of altcoins (excluding ETH) surged considerably over a year after Ether's close above this channel's midline in past cycles. Some analysts suggest that ETH reaching certain key levels could signal the potential onset of an alt season.
Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Market Cap
The prospect of a 2025 altseason is further supported by patterns related to Bitcoin dominance – Bitcoin's market share of the total crypto market capitalization. Historically, after Bitcoin halvings, Bitcoin dominance tends to drop sharply, triggering altcoin rallies. This was observed in previous post-halving periods. With the latest halving in April 2024, a similar period is approaching, and a decline in Bitcoin dominance could occur within the next few months. If this trend repeats, some market observers anticipate the altcoin market cap could surge toward substantially higher figures. A falling Bitcoin dominance implies that capital is shifting from Bitcoin to altcoins, making them the market's primary focus.
Technical Formations
Several bullish technical patterns are currently visible on Ethereum's charts:
• Ascending Triangle: Ethereum's price action has been forming an ascending triangle pattern, characterized by a horizontal resistance level and a rising support line. This pattern typically indicates that buyers are gaining strength, pushing prices to higher lows against a flat resistance. A breakout above the horizontal resistance of this pattern could lead to a significant upward move.
• Inverse Head and Shoulders: Some analysts have identified an inverse head and shoulders pattern on daily trading charts, a classic bullish reversal pattern. The neckline of this pattern is cited around the $2,700 mark. A decisive close above this level could confirm the breakout, with an immediate target of $3,000.
• Bull Flag: On the daily chart, Ethereum appears to be forming a bull flag pattern, which is a bullish continuation pattern that typically follows a strong rally. The current sideways price action forms the flag, and a breakout could lead to a significant price increase.
• Bullish Market Structure: Despite the consolidation, the broader market structure for Ethereum can still be interpreted as bullish, with the potential for consecutive higher highs and higher lows to remain intact if key support levels hold. ETH trading above its key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) indicates a strong technical structure.
Analyst Sentiment
Market observers are cautiously optimistic, with many eyeing the $3,000 level as the next major milestone. Some predict that if Ethereum stays above $2,550, a breakout toward higher levels is likely in the near term. Holding above $2,500 is seen as crucial. If bullish momentum persists and broader crypto sentiment remains favorable, ETH could target the $4,000–$4,500 range later in 2025. Institutional interest, evidenced by spot Ether ETFs attracting inflows and Ethereum's growing market capitalization, also underpins a positive outlook.
Section 4: The Bearish Undertones - Risks and Fragility
Despite the array of bullish signals, Ethereum's path is not without significant obstacles and inherent fragilities.
Substantial Supply Near Cost Basis
A concerning factor highlighted by on-chain data is the substantial amount of Ethereum supply acquired near the current price levels. Analysis of blockchain data indicates that a very large volume of ETH supply, valued in the tens of billions of dollars, is near its cost basis and at risk of flipping into a loss if prices dip. This creates a precarious situation. If ETH's price were to fall below these investors' average acquisition price, it could trigger a wave of selling as holders try to minimize losses or break even. This sell-side pressure could exacerbate any downward trend or prolong the consolidation phase. There is also a significant cluster of investor cost-basis distribution around the $2,800 price level, implying potential sell-side pressure as ETH approaches this zone from investors looking to offload assets near breakeven.
Stubborn Resistance Levels
Ethereum is currently coiling under significant resistance. The $2,700 level has proven to be a formidable barrier, with ETH facing rejections multiple times in May. This level represents a key hurdle for bulls. Failure to convincingly break above $2,700, and subsequently $2,800 and the ultimate $3,000 target, could see selling pressure intensify. Each failed attempt can strengthen the perception of these levels as a ceiling, encouraging more traders to sell at these points.
Macroeconomic and Market-Wide Factors
The broader cryptocurrency market is susceptible to macroeconomic headwinds. Factors such as interest rate policies from central banks, regulatory developments, and global economic stability can significantly impact investor sentiment and capital flows into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. While some anticipate potential interest rate cuts later in 2025 which could be bullish, ongoing quantitative tightening could pose a challenge. Bitcoin's dominance, while potentially set to fall, has also surged in early 2025, overshadowing altcoins for a period and reflecting a "risk-off" environment at times. Any negative shifts in these broader conditions could dampen Ethereum's breakout prospects, regardless of its specific technical or on-chain signals.
Section 5: Why Failure to Hit $3000 Could Mean Extended Consolidation in 2025
The $3000 mark is a critical psychological and technical threshold for Ethereum. Should the cryptocurrency fail to breach this level decisively in the coming months, several factors could contribute to an extended period of consolidation throughout 2025.
• Loss of Upward Momentum: A failure to achieve a widely anticipated price target like $3000 can significantly dampen investor enthusiasm. Bullish momentum is often self-reinforcing; when it stalls at a major resistance, the energy can dissipate, leading to a more cautious or bearish sentiment. Traders who bought in anticipation of a breakout might exit their positions, adding to selling pressure.
• Strengthening of Resistance: Each time a price level like $3000 (or even preceding levels like $2,700-$2,800) successfully repels an upward advance, it becomes a more established and psychologically potent resistance zone. More market participants will view it as a ceiling, placing sell orders around it, thus making future breakouts even more difficult.
• Capital Rotation: If Ethereum's price remains stagnant while other cryptocurrencies or asset classes show more promising returns, capital may flow out of ETH. Investors are constantly seeking the best risk-adjusted returns, and a prolonged consolidation in ETH could lead them to look for opportunities elsewhere in the dynamic crypto space or even in traditional markets.
• Investor Fatigue and Profit-Taking: Extended periods of sideways movement can lead to investor fatigue. Those who have been holding ETH through the consolidation might become impatient and decide to sell, either to lock in existing profits (if any) or to free up capital for other ventures. This is particularly true for the significant portion of supply bought near current price levels, where the desire to break even can lead to selling pressure if upward momentum wanes.
• Confirmation of Historical Patterns: As mentioned earlier, historical chart patterns suggest that Ethereum can enter extended consolidation phases before major bull runs. A failure to break $3000 would align with these historical precedents, suggesting that the market might indeed be settling in for a longer period of range-bound trading.
• Impact on "Altseason" Narrative: Ethereum's performance is often seen as a bellwether for the broader altcoin market. If ETH struggles to break key resistance and enter a clear uptrend, it could delay or diminish the prospects of a widespread "altseason," further contributing to a more subdued market environment for ETH itself.
Essentially, a failure at $3000 would signal that the current buying pressure is insufficient to overcome the selling interest at that level. This equilibrium could persist for an extended period, leading to the price oscillating within a defined range as bulls and bears remain in a deadlock. Until a significant catalyst emerges – be it a major network upgrade with immediate perceived value, a shift in macroeconomic conditions, or a surge in institutional demand that overwhelms sellers – Ethereum could find itself tracing a path of consolidation through 2025.
Section 6: Scenarios for 2025
Looking ahead, Ethereum's trajectory in 2025 largely hinges on its ability to overcome the current consolidation and the critical $3000 resistance. Several scenarios could unfold:
Scenario 1: Breaching $3000 and Igniting a Bull Run
This is the optimistic scenario favored by many ETH proponents.
• The Breakout: Ethereum successfully smashes through the $2,700-$2,800 resistance zone and then decisively conquers the $3000 psychological barrier. This breakout would likely be accompanied by a surge in trading volume, confirming strong buying interest.
• Targets: Once $3000 is overcome, analysts eye targets such as $3,200, $3,500-$3,600, and previous cycle highs around $4,100. Some even more bullish long-term predictions based on chart patterns suggest significantly higher targets if momentum is sustained.
• Altseason Trigger: A strong ETH rally, particularly one driven by reclaiming key technical levels, could indeed trigger a wider altseason. This would see significant capital flow into other altcoins, potentially leading to a massive altcoin market cap surge if Bitcoin dominance concurrently falls.
• Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment would turn decisively bullish, fueled by positive price action and the realization of long-awaited breakouts. Institutional interest would likely further increase.
Scenario 2: Failure at $3000 and Continued Consolidation Throughout 2025
This scenario represents the central thesis of this article – a prolonged period of sideways trading.
• The Rejection: Ethereum makes attempts to break $3000 (or even struggles to consistently hold above $2700-$2800) but is repeatedly met with strong selling pressure. The price fails to establish a sustained uptrend above these key levels.
• Trading Range: ETH would likely continue to trade within a familiar range, potentially bounded by support levels around $2,300-$2,500 and resistance capping gains below $3000. This range could persist for a significant portion of 2025.
• Investor Sentiment: Investor sentiment would likely become mixed and potentially frustrated. While long-term believers might continue to accumulate, shorter-term traders could become disengaged due to a lack of volatility and clear direction. The "wait-and-see" approach would dominate.
• Impact on Altcoins: A stagnant Ethereum could dampen enthusiasm for a broad altseason, leading to more selective and narrative-driven gains in the altcoin market rather than a widespread euphoric rally.
Scenario 3: A Bearish Breakdown
While many signals are bullish or neutral (consolidating), a bearish breakdown remains a possibility, especially if broader market conditions deteriorate or if key supports fail.
• Support Failure: Key support levels, such as $2,450, $2,300, or even the psychological $2,000 mark, are breached decisively. This could be triggered by the large supply near cost basis flipping into loss and causing a cascade of selling.
• Negative Catalysts: This scenario could be exacerbated by negative macroeconomic news, stringent regulatory actions, or unforeseen issues within the Ethereum ecosystem.
• Price Action: A bearish breakdown would see Ethereum enter a downtrend, potentially revisiting lower support levels from previous market cycles. Technical indicators like a "Death Cross" on weekly charts, if confirmed, would add to bearish sentiment.
• Market Sentiment: Fear and uncertainty would grip the market, leading to a flight to safety, possibly increasing Bitcoin dominance or a move towards stablecoins.
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The most probable outcome will depend on a confluence of technical breakouts, fundamental developments within the Ethereum ecosystem (like the impact of future upgrades), institutional adoption trends, and the overarching macroeconomic environment.
Section 7: Conclusion
Ethereum stands at a pivotal moment in May 2025. The allure of a significant rally towards $4,000 and beyond, potentially heralding a new altseason, is palpable, supported by historical precedents and bullish chart patterns. However, the path is fraught with challenges, most notably the formidable psychological and technical resistance clustered around the $2,700 to $3,000 levels.
The current consolidation phase, while potentially a healthy accumulation period, also carries the risk of morphing into prolonged stagnation if upward momentum cannot be decisively seized. The significant volume of ETH supply hovering near its cost basis presents a tangible threat, where a dip could trigger further selling pressure, reinforcing the consolidation or even leading to a decline.
Therefore, the central thesis holds considerable weight: should Ethereum fail to convincingly breach the $3000 mark in the coming months, it is highly plausible that the cryptocurrency could remain locked in a consolidative pattern for much of 2025. This would test the patience of investors and potentially delay the much-anticipated fireworks of a full-blown altseason.
The cryptocurrency market is notoriously dynamic and influenced by a myriad of unpredictable factors. While technical analysis and on-chain data provide valuable insights, they are not infallible crystal balls. Investors and traders must remain vigilant, continuously reassessing the evolving landscape, managing risk, and preparing for various potential outcomes as Ethereum navigates this critical juncture. The battle for $3000 will likely define ETH's narrative for the remainder of the year.
ALTCOIN ROADMAP: REVISITED!!! Ethereum vs NvidiaOne of the most insightful ratio charts that provides a remarkable glimpse into the vitality of Altcoins and the appetite for risk is when Ethereum outshines one of the fastest rising stars in the stock market, #NVDA!
The conventional Altcoin index indicates how many of the top 100 Altcoins are outperforming #BTC.
This is indeed a valuable metric that we can rely on for identifying peaks.
However, I believe that if we broaden our perspective and examine the ETH ratio against a Tech Titan, we can truly pinpoint the timing of the banana zone. When it starts and when it is confirmed violent uptrend.
My interest in this ratio was sparked when ETH was still a proof of work coin, validated through GPUs; it seemed like a natural starting point to assess whether the ETH price was overvalued or undervalued.
Even after the transition to POS, I still think it’s worth analysing, as shown by the recent double bottom on the ratio!
The next crucial question is when we can break the multi-year downtrend to genuinely confirm the Banana zone. Because without ETH, there’s no party.
If we enter a big strong banana zone, I believe the ratio could swiftly trend towards 100, so we will be keeping a close eye on it!
BTC Dominance forecast until the end of August 2025It is a reversal now.
From now on until the end of August 2025 BTC.D will travel south. Downtrend will be in waves with major dates in the end of June and end of August 2025.
Major correction up will happen from 59.4% to 61.67%
The end of altseason will be at the level of 57.75%
Beware of major dates. Don't get driven away by profits, because the real fortunes are made in bear markets.
For more check my profile
total3 altcoins Altcoins expansion phase to continue hard
waves over short periods of time are the fuel for a new leg
