Altcoin Golden Cross Formed Last Week - First Time in 4 YearsTrading Fam,
You are probably tired by now of seeing all the hopeful headlines, predictions, and analysis while altcoins continue to descend. I am too. Therefore, I am going to sound a little more pessimistic in this post. Some call this 'realistic' but whatever ...semantics.
While I am hopeful that an altseason will occur, I am also beginning to become less and less convinced that anything like we experienced in the past will occur again. The longer we go without seeing the beginning of our altcoin cycle, the more time altcoins have to dilute the capital pouring into the market. There are just so many altcoins to choose from now and literally hundreds or thousands more are being created weekly by way of memecoins. As the meme on my chart illustrates, those pouring in are spreading their resources out much more thinly now because there is so much more to choose from than there was in 2021. Therefore, what pump we may see in our own investments may not equate to what we expect. And if we are not careful to pick the right coins, it may not even equate to the average profit that was realized in the altcoin market in 2021.
So, here's the deal. By now, you may or may not be aware that a couple of weeks ago our altcoin charts showed us something we haven't seen in over four years! It was the golden cross. This event occurs when our 100 DMA crosses above our 200 DMA. In this case, white represents the 100 DMA and red represents the 200 DMA. They are both SMAs. This event is supposed to be an amazing indicator and a lot of analyst were using it to say that we that our altcoin season has now begun. This very well could be the case, but also, we could drop further and use one of those moving averages as support before any real bounce occurs. Furthermore, past history should never dictate current. History may not in fact repeat and altcoin season may not occur at all. It doesn't have to. Maybe this time we don't get one? This is simply something we should realistically consider.
Now if it does occur, excellent! This is what I personally have been banking on. So, the other thing I want to discuss a little bit more is what actually occurred in the altcoin market last time this happened in 2021. You can see from the chart, that once the golden cross occurred, the race was on. Price essentially continued up through May, dipped from May through July and then continued up again from July through November. So, if you held from the beginning of the cross to our peak in November, you would have realized average altcoin gainz of around 500% (or 5x).
Now, let's say the same thing occurs this year. Our golden cross occurred two weeks later this year than it did in 2021 but I don't think that makes much of a difference. Essentially, if this altcoin season is truly beginning right now, we'll have about 9-10 months of upside with the potential of a big dip somewhere there in the middle. That dip in 2021 was about a 60% drop from top to bottom and paper hands folded quickly during that time thinking the top was in.
If similar price action occurs this year, then we may have 9-10 months to capitalize on alts but again, with a huge exception ...only the best of the best in alts will perform up to this 5x standard or better. You know, stuff like Doge, XRP, SOL, ETH (yes, I said ETH), etc. The OG classic boomer alts.
But what about memecoins?
IMO, a select few memecoins could still do very well, however, we have to be honest here. We are playing roulette. Despite what Murad and others on X continue to preach about belief and conviction and religiosity of the coin, the number of holders, yada yada yada, in the end, we have to be honest with ourselves or we will lose money. Memecoins are simply a big casino. Some will do very well and make their millions. You'll hear from these lucky bastards incessantly I am sure. The fact that they turned 100 dollars into $100,000,000 will be advertised on X and other social media platforms ad nauseam. You will want to go throw up because you were at one time in one of these memecoins too. And then you sold. And these are the stories you won't hear. You won't hear about how many failed. You won't hear about how many degens went broke chasing this imaginary illusion, this pipe dream, of unlimited wealth filled with lambos and yachts with girls. You won't hear that most memecoin traders lost money rather than gained.
I don't want to end too pessimistically here because I am playing the memecoin game too. I'm in the casino and spinning this wheel. Maybe one day I'll be one of those lucky bastards that wins. As of today, that is certainly not the case (just being honest) and I certainly don't stake my life savings on it. So, all I am suggesting here once again is to be cautious. Have fun. Play the game if you wish and I hope you win. But also, be careful, pick only the best of the best, and NEVER risk more than you can afford to lose.
Here's to hoping this is truly the beginning of another altcoin run.
✌️ Stew
