Altcoin Golden Cross Formed Last Week - First Time in 4 YearsTrading Fam,
You are probably tired by now of seeing all the hopeful headlines, predictions, and analysis while altcoins continue to descend. I am too. Therefore, I am going to sound a little more pessimistic in this post. Some call this 'realistic' but whatever ...semantics.
While I am hopeful that an altseason will occur, I am also beginning to become less and less convinced that anything like we experienced in the past will occur again. The longer we go without seeing the beginning of our altcoin cycle, the more time altcoins have to dilute the capital pouring into the market. There are just so many altcoins to choose from now and literally hundreds or thousands more are being created weekly by way of memecoins. As the meme on my chart illustrates, those pouring in are spreading their resources out much more thinly now because there is so much more to choose from than there was in 2021. Therefore, what pump we may see in our own investments may not equate to what we expect. And if we are not careful to pick the right coins, it may not even equate to the average profit that was realized in the altcoin market in 2021.
So, here's the deal. By now, you may or may not be aware that a couple of weeks ago our altcoin charts showed us something we haven't seen in over four years! It was the golden cross. This event occurs when our 100 DMA crosses above our 200 DMA. In this case, white represents the 100 DMA and red represents the 200 DMA. They are both SMAs. This event is supposed to be an amazing indicator and a lot of analyst were using it to say that we that our altcoin season has now begun. This very well could be the case, but also, we could drop further and use one of those moving averages as support before any real bounce occurs. Furthermore, past history should never dictate current. History may not in fact repeat and altcoin season may not occur at all. It doesn't have to. Maybe this time we don't get one? This is simply something we should realistically consider.
Now if it does occur, excellent! This is what I personally have been banking on. So, the other thing I want to discuss a little bit more is what actually occurred in the altcoin market last time this happened in 2021. You can see from the chart, that once the golden cross occurred, the race was on. Price essentially continued up through May, dipped from May through July and then continued up again from July through November. So, if you held from the beginning of the cross to our peak in November, you would have realized average altcoin gainz of around 500% (or 5x).
Now, let's say the same thing occurs this year. Our golden cross occurred two weeks later this year than it did in 2021 but I don't think that makes much of a difference. Essentially, if this altcoin season is truly beginning right now, we'll have about 9-10 months of upside with the potential of a big dip somewhere there in the middle. That dip in 2021 was about a 60% drop from top to bottom and paper hands folded quickly during that time thinking the top was in.
If similar price action occurs this year, then we may have 9-10 months to capitalize on alts but again, with a huge exception ...only the best of the best in alts will perform up to this 5x standard or better. You know, stuff like Doge, XRP, SOL, ETH (yes, I said ETH), etc. The OG classic boomer alts.
But what about memecoins?
IMO, a select few memecoins could still do very well, however, we have to be honest here. We are playing roulette. Despite what Murad and others on X continue to preach about belief and conviction and religiosity of the coin, the number of holders, yada yada yada, in the end, we have to be honest with ourselves or we will lose money. Memecoins are simply a big casino. Some will do very well and make their millions. You'll hear from these lucky bastards incessantly I am sure. The fact that they turned 100 dollars into $100,000,000 will be advertised on X and other social media platforms ad nauseam. You will want to go throw up because you were at one time in one of these memecoins too. And then you sold. And these are the stories you won't hear. You won't hear about how many failed. You won't hear about how many degens went broke chasing this imaginary illusion, this pipe dream, of unlimited wealth filled with lambos and yachts with girls. You won't hear that most memecoin traders lost money rather than gained.
I don't want to end too pessimistically here because I am playing the memecoin game too. I'm in the casino and spinning this wheel. Maybe one day I'll be one of those lucky bastards that wins. As of today, that is certainly not the case (just being honest) and I certainly don't stake my life savings on it. So, all I am suggesting here once again is to be cautious. Have fun. Play the game if you wish and I hope you win. But also, be careful, pick only the best of the best, and NEVER risk more than you can afford to lose.
Here's to hoping this is truly the beginning of another altcoin run.
✌️ Stew
ALTS
ALTCOINS This is the final bullish call.The altcoin market has found support two weeks ago on the 1week MA50.
Even though it is pulling back this week, the new bottom has been formed and the Channel Up should now extend the Cycle and its final Bullish Leg.
The previous Cycle topped just under the 1.5 Fibonacci extension.
With the 1week RSI about to turn neutral, the trend now favors buying again.
We expect to see the market at 2 Trillion (just under the 1.5 Fib).
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
OTHERS - Bull Channel Looking for continuation of this large channel on the Weekly timeframe
This chart excludes BTC and ETH but there is such an oversaturation of alts that i expect a massive pump across the board, legitimately on every altcoin,
If the channel hodls we are in for a massive run
PUMP IT
SUI | ALTS | BULLISH Chart Pattern?A bullish chart pattern is forming on SUI in the daily chart.
It should be noted that this patter is still premature - meaning that it's not yet completed and there is not yet the confirmation that we need to act on it:
Don't miss the most recent update on XRP here:
_________________________
COINBASE:SUIUSD
This Coin Is A POWERHOUSE MartyBoots here , I have been trading for 17 years and sharing my thoughts on AAVE here.
AAVE is looking beautiful , very strong chart for more upside
Very similar to XRO which mooned from this structure
Do not miss out on AAVE as this is a great opportunity
Watch video for more details
FET | ALTCOINS | Fetch.AI - GREAT Re-Accumulation ZoneFET was one of my top altcoins for 2024, and it did not disappoint after a 500%+ increase early last year.
FET has since been trading in a major corrective cycle, with near-term bounces (also called mid-cycles or mini-cycles).
A great re-accumulation zone is approaching, and it's possible that FET may trade range before making another push for the upside.
Make sure you don't miss yesterday's update on another great alt, ARKM:
______________
BINANCE:FETUSDT
Altcoin Season - 2017 vs 2021 vs 2025OTHERS/BTC is a good barometer for "Altcoin Season"
OTHERS charts the total market cap of every crypto excluding the Top 10 by market cap tokens
BTC is charting BTC by market cap
It's obvious we are in 4 year cycles, and obvious this season starts after BTC breaks all-time high.
The idea is simple - BTC breaking all-time high increases awareness from the public. People then enter into BTC. After they enter into BTC, they look further down the risk curve (altcoins). 2017, then 2021, now 2025. The "Altcoin Season" typically lasts for ~1 year.
Everyone in the crypto world is freaking out right now, calling for the cycle to be over with and that "altcoins are dead" --- this happens at this point every cycle. If you have been here for 8+ years, you will notice the same pattern repeating in people's emotions/psychology.
Steady Lads, "Altcoin Season" is coming soon.
- CURB (@CryptoCurb)
ARKM | ALTCOINS | Is another 400% Increase Possible??ARKM is an altcoin that has great upside potential, and it's approaching a key support zone - the opening levels.
The good news, is that the corrective pattern (in the macro timeframe) is nearly over. However, there are large bounces possible between these zones that look "small" in the weekly timeframe:
_____________________
BINANCE:ARKMUSDT
BTC.D - Doomsday or Expected?Evening fellas,
Remember back then when we would say "only the top 1% will actually make it"
Yeah, what about that? People seem to forget this market is extremely fake, full of shitcoins that will not go anywhere.
Trust me, the bottom for alts is not in. Minimum we go here is 75%.
Once the bitcoin maximalists have acquired enough btc by trading alt/btc pair they will dump everything they got back into only BTC.
Gonna leave this here.
Trade thirsty, my friends.
The elusive alt season... Is QE coming soon?The magical Alt season never seems to come. Most have thrown in the towel or lost all their money, which is a good sign the bottom is in.
The secret here is paying close attention to the FED's (FRED:WALCL) Quantitative tightening and easing.
Since the start in 2008, we have always either had QE or some sort of pause like you see in the 2016/17 bull run, but as soon as the FED flips to tightening, what happens? BTC pauses.
It is true that Bitcoin has performed very well during tightening cycles, as massive corporations like BlackRock and MicroStrategy are eating through the supply.
As for the altcoin market, it has been a bloodbath. One thing that’s clear to me is that altcoins need the FED to flip to QE in order to get things really going.
Going over the latest FED's Monetary Policy Report that came out yesterday, it hints that they are close to ending their tightening cycle and easing off a bit.
**WHICH IS HUGE NEWS!**
We can now see that this is true indeed because the red line is now starting to flatten out, just like in 2020 before the FED flipped to QE.
As far as the technicals go, the altcoin chart has now formed an ascending triangle and, for now, is still printing higher lows. 20 days left for this monthly candle to close.
If, let's say, this monthly candle breaks ATH and closes above it, it could signal the start of the alt season, and if history repeats, we’re looking at a run-up from March 2025 to September/October 2025.
So the next FOMC meeting from the FED is the most important of the year. Now that this report hints at the end of the tightening cycle, is it possible that at the next FOMC meeting on March 18th, 2025, they will announce the end of tightening and trigger the start of the alt season?
Pretty heavy upper wick for now on the BTC.D. It’s currently on the .702 retracement. Is this the top?
A chart I use a lot. Really want to see this monthly candle close back into this triangle.
**Alts/USDT.D**
This chart is one of the most important ones I’m looking at right now. Currently forming a bump-and-run reversal, and again, very bullish if we hold the neckline.
The USDT.D chart will always lead the way. It’s always one step ahead, never fails me. Until we see a break of this green support line, we won’t see ALT season. The bear flag pattern target is the same target as April 2021, which is interesting.
As I published on my ETH TA, if we close the weekly in this channel, it will be very bullish.
### Conclusion
I'm extremely bullish right now. Leverage has been reset, greed has been reset, and everyone is throwing in the towel. On social media, "it's over" talk is everywhere. This is the kind of depression I'm looking for to tell me it’s the start of ALT season and not the end.
**Invalidation of this thesis would be the following:**
- ETH closes weekly under the channel
- Bump-and-run reversal fails to hold the neckline
- FED does not flip to QE in the FOMC meeting on March 18th
If all these things happen, I will flip bearish. Until then, I'm extremely confident that this is the bottom, and you should go all out, lay all the cards down, take out loans, put all your chips on the table—it’s time to go hard or go home!
SEI | ALTCOINS | +150% Bounce Zone TARGETSEI is an altcoin that bounces well from support zones and therefore excellent to trade as a swing trade.
You can confirm that SEI bounces from support zones by taking a look at this post I made in August last year, just before SEI increased 232%:
For the short term, there seems to be no clear indication of a turnaround, but the good news is that a better buy zone is approaching for the next impulse wave up - which could be a really big swing.
_____________________
BINANCE:SEIUSDT
ALTCOINS testing the 1W MA200. Is the Altseason alive?The Crypto Total Market Cap excluding the top 10 coins hit this week the 1W MA200 for the first time since the week of the U.S. elections in early November. Last time that was a huge buy entry. One more rebound here will be in our perspective the decisive one to start the usual Altseason of the last year of each Cycle. A +931.44% rise as in the last Cycle would put the market over 2 Trillion in capitalization and won't even be on the top of the 7 year Channel Up.
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##