4/ Altseason: Live -The Final game is in September. My plan Altszn Live #4: My <50% Win Rate, the Psychology of Missed Profits, and the Endgame in September. Start with 10k
Let's be brutally honest. Running a public trading experiment comes with immense psychological pressure. This isn't a game. It's real money, real nerves, and a real reputation on the line. The last 9 days have been tough; I hit a losing streak, and I want to show it to you, not hide it. Because trading isn't a non-stop party of green numbers. It's a marathon where your own psychology is both your greatest enemy and your greatest ally.
Section 1: Working on Myself. My System vs. Crowd Psychology
To be profitable in the long run, you have to be honest about your strengths and weaknesses. My weakness? My trade win rate is less than 50%. Yes, more than half of my positions do not close in profit.
My strength? I've developed one rule that allows me to stay profitable despite this win rate. This isn't some pretty quote; it's a hard-won system: "Hold your profitable positions for as long as possible, and close your losing positions as quickly as possible."
Now, look at the market. Most people do the exact opposite. They "marry" their losing positions for years, while a 20-30% profit is an irresistible temptation they must lock in immediately.
This leads to the pain of missed opportunities (FOMO). I went through this myself with $RSR. I was waiting to buy at 0.081. The price touched 0.083 and then flew to 10 cents without me. That feeling of the market leaving without you while you wait for the perfect correction is familiar to everyone. It's that burnout that causes you to make mistakes. But I've learned my lesson: there will be no deep corrections this season.
Section 2: Altseason in Full Swing. Where is the Money Flowing, and Where is the "Final Station"?
Altseason is already here. This isn't a guess; it's a fact. Billions of dollars in USDT and other stablecoins are pouring into the market right now. Bitcoin is at its highs. Ethereum is moving up aggressively, just as I've said in my previous posts. But the biggest potential isn't in them right now.
Money moves in waves in the market. You need to understand this to avoid getting on at the "final station":
1. First, Tier-1: Capital flows into BTC and ETH. (This phase is almost over).
2. Then, Tier-2: The flow shifts to large-cap projects (LINK, UNI, SOL, etc.). (Happening now).
3. Next, Tier-3 & Tier-4: Money moves into smaller, riskier altcoins. (Our main target).
4. The Finale - Memecoins: Euphoria, insane percentages, media headlines. When your grandmother asks you about Dogecoin — that's the "final station." It's time to get off the ship.
And we have a date. September 2025. For me, this is the deadline, after which I'm moving into stablecoins and waiting for major shifts in the global economy.
Section 3: My Hunt for "Green Flags" and the XETR:HEI Trade
How do you find that Tier-3 project in this chaos that could deliver massive returns? I look for "green flags." The main one is a rebranding. New tokenomics, a new chart, a new concept. It's a startup with a history.
It was precisely this principle that led me to XETR:HEI (formerly AMEX:LIT ). A small capitalization, a strong narrative, and a complete reset of old holders. The probability of such a project taking off is extremely high.
I'm managing this trade, from entry to exit, in real-time within my private channel. These aren't just signals; it's a demonstration of the system in action.
Conclusion & Call to Action
This public experiment is my personal challenge. I have one shot and only two months to show a result. I'm sharing everything: the wins and the losses. All proof of my trades is available on streaming platforms.
In the first post about Altseason, I invited you to join this journey, and the response was incredible. It brought many strong and mindful people into our community. Let's continue.
If you want to follow my trades in real-time, and ride this final wave of the altseason with me, write "Altseason " in the comments or in pm
And I have a question for you. Share your thoughts, your pain points, your projects. What's on your radar? And one more thing: would you want me to open a separate public account with $1000 and trade it in parallel for transparency? Let's discuss. I'm open to any suggestions.
Best regards EXCAVO
Altszn
ONDObeen looking at this for a while... a strong and must to be added on spot portfolio
structures across most of alts are invalidated... BTC and ETH are taking their key levels and we are in the final stage of capitulation
will reupdate all the charts (I'm holding) after the dust settles
Bull Run isn't over... wait for consolidation and we can have our alts rally in a few weeks
DXY (Bitcoin - Alt Season - Bullish) everyone suddenly started posting DXY chart so I figured I should give my 2 cents on it as well.
People are finding hopes in DXY but main charts are still BTC.D and USDT.D
Monthly Chart has the whole picture
Weekly Chart (above) is what interests us
Breaking that Green Macro Trendline will be the 1st step towards success!
remember how yesterday everyone and their mothers were bearish except me?
This drama will continue, ignore the noise...
TAO - Extremely Bullishone of the few coins which are about to go in sub-wave 3 of macro-wave 3
haven't bought this one yet but might rotate a few weak positions to this if the structure holds
no idea what's going to happen to AI tokens (haven't looked into things yet, no time on hand) - sharing this purely based on TA
USDT.D Macro Update ( Alt Season ? )everything on the charts
I'm still holding my alts
For traders, this is one of the best charts in town (to find local tops and bottoms for potential swing opportunities)
This tells the whole story
If Invalidation occurs, I'll reconsider all my traders.
(not in the mood of writing much, check out the previous posts for more explanation + everything's on the chart)
BTC.D - Alt Season (Rotation from BTC to ALTS about to begin)only 3 charts you should care about from now = BTC.D , USDT.D and Total 2 (/3/others)
strong utility tokens will win from here
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is weak, (IT WILL DEFINITELY HAS ITS LAST RALLY THOUGH - check out my EW count and the target I've been speaking since 5th Aug)
either it consolidates here and complete its subwave 5 of macrowave 5 later or do it now and distributes later, the time for alts to shine has come...
Few more weeks of pain left. I don't recommend selling here, keep the HODL
but rotation has almost started... whales are taking profits on Bitcoin and time for our shitcoins to outperform from here...
PS. We might see new lows (than 3rd Feb) but the RR is not worth it, never sell in the middle (unless you are invalidated)
Look at the Macro chart for in-detailed analysis on BTC.D I did a few weeks ago
Are you ready for ALT Season 2025? #ALTSZN20253 days before the potential start.
Previous alt seasons have started:
ALTSZN 1: February 14, 2017
ALTSZN 2: January 1, 2021
ALTSZN 3: February 14, 2025?
- 1 candle = 44D
- New 44D candle due to 3D
- Alt-season = 1 year after halving
Now, the altcoin season can begin.
We saw a retest of the BTC Dominance chart breakout.
After that, an unforgettable run began in 2020.
Best Regards EXCAVO
Write your portfolio in the comments.
Ultimate ALT Season upon us!?This weekly BTC Dominance chart shows a clear break of uptrend and retest. The Bearish Butterfly Harmonic hit the 382 and 618 targets followed by checking back to optimal reversal zone. With where we are economically in 2021 there is something to say about this alt season that will be like no other. While the market has already been insanely bullish, over the next few weeks and months the follow thru of this pattern could cause Alt Coins to explode beyond anything anyone has ever seen. This is the most opportune tune time to get with this class of assets for ultimate profitability. The harmonicity of this market is resonating with everyone in it and will only continue to expand.
$FLUX COIN, THE FATHER OF ALL WEB 3 PROJECTS IN CRYPTO SPACEYes, you read it right.
Flux Coin will be the next 10x, 20x, and who knows, it might even reach 50x. With its supply, reaching $10 seems easy in the next bull run, especially when they release its Proof of Useful Work.
The Flux management and developers are continually building its ecosystem to sustain the possible circumstances of their PoUW, despite the bear market season.
Its all time high was $4.17, and it seems that reaching the said minimum target is easy,
IN MY CHART:
Let's talk about the technical side of $FLUX. I have been closely monitoring its movement on a weekly basis, and it appears that the accumulation is hovering around $0.30 - $0.33, which, in my opinion, signals a healthy trend. Flux is currently undergoing a consolidation phase, reflecting a markdown trend. However, if the price breaches its key resistance, the bulls will likely attempt to push it back to around $0.8.
My buying zone falls within the range of the green box. Anything below that will be my dollar-cost averaging (DCA) zone.
FUNDAMENTAL PART:
The Flux ecosystem is focued and devoted to empowering everyone to develop, deploy and use the decentralized Internet of the future: Web3, it is a powerful decentralized computational Flux Network (FluxNodes), a Linux based operating system (FluxOS), the premier digital asset platform (Zelcore) and, finally, the Flux blockchain for on-chain governance, economics and parallel assets to provide interoperability with other blockchains and DeFi access.
DYOR
Plan your execution of trades, so that you don't plan to fail.
Happy Trading, everyone.
BITCOIN FORECAST, TREND POSSIBILITIES. Hello, good evening.
Here is my analysis of the price action of Bitcoin as of today. In the bigger picture, I have identified a head and shoulders pattern on the weekly time frame, along with the support trend line that Bitcoin is currently following. This suggests the possibility of Bitcoin revisiting the $15,000 to $18,000 range. To establish a healthy support trend line, we should observe a similar volume of buyers at that level. However, if the price of Bitcoin fails to hold at the $24,000 to $25,000 level and the volume cannot sustain at that price, Bitcoin could easily retrace to the aforementioned $15,000 to $18,000 range. Since I'm speaking for the weekly forecast, this will take time since we are eyeing the movement on weekly time frame.
In the daily time frame, I've observed that the immediate support is represented by the green box within the range of $24.9k to $25.8k. Furthermore, the head and shoulders pattern is still evident. In terms of price action, it's desirable to witness a significant uptrend within that range. If this occurs, it indicates that many buyers or bullish traders are still interested in a substantial price increase.
When Bitcoin experiences an upswing, it is likely that some large-cap altcoins will also follow.
In my personal opinion, we may be at the market bottom, with the bearish season potentially coming to an end and a new market phase on the horizon.
Always remember to trade responsibly.
Btc has formed the same pattern as in july 2021.Btc is moving in a range for a long time and it has formed the same pattern as in july 2021 right before it climbed up for an 82% move to the upside .
Now looking from a fibonacci perspective we can see that there is a strong resistance at the 30k area , so i think btc is going to visit that region before it goes down at 9k level.
So right now i am waiting for a buy order to get filled at 19450$ region, lets see how this unfolds.
Altcoin Market - Bullish TransitionUsing Fibonacci Circles the transition to a bullish state can be demonstrated as a change from 2.618 to the next outer fib circle 3.618
We can see a bottom and bounce off the uptrend channel and a continuation to a state that includes a bullflag (in green rectangle)
This is a bullish sign, the middle line of the up channel is the nearest resistance
BITCOIN GAP THAT YOU MUST KNOWThe market gives us this early signals that the price action will retrace anytime soon. I'm expecting this because we saw an massive upward move recently and in order to sustain the new trend, the price must correct and build a healthy market trend.
My bullish sentiment will be completed when the price fall down to it's gap, that gap must be filled to correct the price.
RSI Stochastic fails to make a momentum
MAs are under 100 and 200
Price action, double top.
Trade at your own risk
Plan your trade. Trade responsibly.
TOTAL2 and ALTSEASON thoughtsI still think we have one last push of gas in the tank to start ALTSEASON before any sell off, thinking TOTAL2 and alts pump to new ATHs and then we see a big correction back to the 1.4T range for Total2, or maybe even 1T, can't tell just yet.
Just my personal thoughts, what about you guys?
Thanks for viewing!