Aluminium
Aluminium Market Money Heist Plan on Bullish Side.This is our master plan to Heist Aluminium Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2H timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
Aluminium XAL/USD Bullish Robbery Plan To steal the moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist XAL/USD Aluminium based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent Swing Low
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style
UPDATE Hulamin showing strong upside after it's break upto R3.91We were very close to the analysis being null and void.
But then, we had a change of wind and the market bounced off the lows heading back to the range.
It then broke up and is now on the way to the next target at R3.91
Looks good still.
Hulamin poised for great upside in 2024Cup and handle has formed on Hulamin since 10 May 2023.
With these Penny STocks and less liquid markets, they can take a long time to form patterns and formations.
But when they breakout, they can rocket in the direction of the breakout.
I like that it's restested the support and brim level, and is showing that the buying is accumulating.
And that that price is above the 200MA.
These are always risky markets to dabble into, but they're fun nevertheless.
Target R3.91
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:
Growth in the Can Market:
Hulamin has been focusing on expanding its presence in the lucrative can market. This strategic move likely increased investor confidence in the company's growth prospects and operational focus.
Aluminium Prices:
The price of aluminium has been testing a 13-year high, which positively impacts Hulamin's valuation and profitability, as it is an aluminium products group.
Stock Movement and Company Talks:
The company's stock has seen significant movement, with its value almost doubling in a week. This surge is partly due to Hulamin being in talks that may affect its stock, though details of these discussions were not disclosed.
ALUMINIUM PRICES MIGHT BE PULLED UP DUE TO CHINA DEMANDChina's aluminum market in 2023 stands out for its resilience, with prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) bucking global trends by climbing over 1%, while the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw an 8% slump. This divergence is largely credited to the strength of China's green sector and decarbonization efforts. An open arbitrage window, created by SHFE outperforming LME, has led to a substantial increase in aluminum imports into China, mainly from Russia due to sanctions imposed by Western buyers after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Despite the surge in imports, domestic aluminum production in China has reached new highs, partly due to an improved hydropower supply in Yunnan province. However, potential disruptions during the upcoming dry season could impact production and increase imports. Low domestic aluminum inventories underscore robust domestic demand, with SHFE stocks at their lowest levels since March 2019.
Beijing's decarbonization initiatives have driven aluminum demand, particularly in renewable energy-related manufacturing. Notably, the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicles (NEV) sector and the critical role of aluminum in battery electric vehicles highlight its significance in this industry. The solar sector, another major aluminum consumer, continues to expand, with China leading in solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity additions. This growth in green sectors is expected to counterbalance weaknesses in traditional sectors, sustaining demand for aluminum. China's aluminum market exemplifies a unique blend of domestic resilience, increasing imports, and a strong emphasis on green industries, all contributing to the sector's dynamics in 2023.
On a technical note, MACD and RSI are still in the neutral and sell zone, but are rising up and buy signals are starting to form.
If the trend continues, the price might reach levels of 2241, in the opposite scenario the price might revert to levels of 2178.
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#Aluminium - Could reach $2500 and $2700Hi guys! 👋🏻
🔔 There's no clean energy without Aliminium, which is widely used in electric vehicle and solar panels production
🔔 One of the largest consumers of Aluminium - China is expected to increase the demand for the metal in its e-vehicle, clean energy and airplane production.
🔔 Other fundamentals which support higher demand for metals are: global ecnomies raise their expenses on military, renewing their military equipment.
🔔 Aluminium daily chart
www.tradingview.com
✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻
If you like the idea hit the 👍🏻 button, follow me for more ideas.
Tailwinds build for Aluminium Paradoxically, aluminium was one of the worst performing base metals over the past month (22 May to 23 June 2023) despite the bauxite ore ban potentially tightening the market. In 2022, Indonesia produced some 21 million tonnes of bauxite, according to data from the US Geological Survey, making it the world’s fifth-largest producer. Almost 85 percent was exported overseas. According to data from the International Aluminium Institute, global production of primary aluminium registered a slight increase of 0.2% month-on-month in May 2023. The information portal Shanghai Metals Markets has reported that aluminium producers in the Yunnan region in China have been permitted since 17 June to ramp their operations up again after having been forced to scale them back since last autumn because electricity was rationed due to
drought. However, the ongoing heatwaves in many parts of China may drive production halts back again.
Aluminium futures inventory is 21% lower than 3 months ago, mainly as a result of Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory declining over that time window.
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Aluminium CURRENTLY SHORT Aluminium trend short
Aluminium prices have fallen over 10% since late January, which originally saw prices spike above HKEX:2 ,600 per tonne as the ending of Covid-19 restrictions in China saw demand for the metal rise.
Prior to this aluminium prices had dropped about 40% below record levels in late November 2022 due to weak demand outlook for the industrial metal.
Should I invest in aluminium?
Aluminium is a versatile, lightweight, corrosion-resistant and recyclable metal that has numerous use cases in construction, automobile, aerospace, packaging, electronics and many other industries.
It is the third most abundant element in the Earth’s crust, after oxygen and silicon.
According to Russian-based UC Rusal, one of the largest aluminium-producing companies in the world, construction and transportation make up over 50% of aluminium consumption by industry.
The shift towards electric vehicles has further increased demand for the metal. Aluminium is used in structural body frames and battery packs to keep electric cars light and improve battery efficiency.
Because the metal is easy to recycle, 75% of all aluminium ever produced being still in use, according to Norwegian aluminium company Norsk Hyrdo.
Environment-friendly initiatives by companies like Apple (AAPL) have prompted the increased use of recycled aluminium, alongside recycled tungsten, rare earths and cobalt.
Another factor is that producing aluminium from ore is an expensive, energy-intensive process. The cost of fuel, especially coal, which is still used extensively in major aluminium-producing countries such as China and India, influences the aluminium price forecast.
Aluminium companies such as Indian-based Hindalco have acquired coal mines to support aluminium production.
How is aluminium produced? Bauxite is the raw material used to produce the world’s second most-consumed metal. After bauxite is mined and ground, aluminium oxide (alumina) is extracted from the ore through refining.
The metal is then extracted from alumina via electrolytic reduction, which is highly power-intensive. Molten aluminium is then cast into extrusion ingots, sheet ingots and foundry alloys depending on its use.
Rise to record highs and recent fall
Aluminium prices rebounded with strength in 2021 amid the reopening of economies following Covid-19 lockdowns. Developments in China, which accounted for half of global aluminium production in 2020, dominated the price action for the industrial metal throughout the year.
By October 2021, aluminium had surged to 13-year highs as China’s policy to “aim to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060” brought greenhouse gas-emitting smelters to a grinding halt.
The aluminium supply chain was further disrupted by recurring power shortages in China as coal plants shut down to meet state-set energy consumption targets.
Aluminium prices eased after the October 2021 peak as weakened coal prices helped lower production costs. The falls were short-lived as prices surged in late December, eclipsing the highs hit in October.
Data from Capital.com showed that aluminium spot prices surged to an all-time high of over HKEX:4 ,000 per tonne on the back of supply concerns following the Russia-Ukraine war.
Commodity prices spiked as the West announced sanctions on Russian imports. Even though direct sanctions on aluminium were not introduced, several corporations and nations have refused to do business with Russia, cutting out supply from the world’s second largest primary aluminium producer.
According to the International Aluminium Institute, Russia accounted for 6% of global aluminium output in 2021.
In 2022, the focus shifted from supply to demand. A rise in Covid cases in China and the country’s subsequent nationwide lockdowns brought its industrial centres to a standstill. Meanwhile, aggressive interest rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) pushed the US dollar index (DXY) to a near 20-year high, denting commodity demand due to higher foreign exchange costs.
Aluminium prices dropped nearly 50% from record highs to hit a 19-month low of HKEX:2 ,076 per tonne by 28 September 2022. However, it saw a rebound from its September lows as prices rose over 14% in the next two months and ended the year at HKEX:2 ,405.
The following the ending of China’s zero-Covid policy in December, Chinese output of aluminium hit record levels. In January 2023, aluminium prices rose steadily, reaching a seven-month high of HKEX:2 ,638 on 25 January.
However, the price later corrected and by late March it has shed mosts of its gains, reaching HKEX:2 ,266.50 on 21 March. This came as the US decided impose 200% tariffs on Russian metal starting on 10 March, effectively imposing a ban on Russian aluminium imports.
As of 24 April, the price of aluminium stood at HKEX:2 ,383.50.
Analyst view: Aluminium price forecast for 2023
London-based commodity investment firm Sucden Financial said in its first-quarter metals report:
“The rally we saw in Q4 2022 and the first weeks of 2023 has stalled, as China’s re-opening has not triggered a large increase in consumption and is a services play, as well as the Fed remaining hawkish on rates. The dollar has firmed, causing metals to weaken, highlighting the fragility of move higher. Spreads are in contango, Chinese prices are mostly in discount, and weaker premiums suggests a cautious market.”
For aluminium, the commodity investment house said:
“Aluminium benefitted by the year-end from the Chinese government announcing the removal of lockdown restrictions. The sentiment has continued into the start of this year, but a traditionally quiet Chinese New Year season has meant prices found support at HKEX:2 ,350/t levels. Growing domestic stockpiles in China and weaker overseas demand meant that consumers avoided committing to long-term contracts for now, with bulls waiting for another quarter before joining the trade.”
With regards to aluminium price predictions for 2023, Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) seemingly predicted more volatility in the metals future, stating that the price showed “no signs of stabilising”.
Meanwhile, Fitch Solutions has lowered its 2023 aluminium spot price forecast from HKEX:2 ,700 to HKEX:2 ,600 per tonne.
The research firm said “supply constraints will anchor prices at their current levels” as aluminium production suffers in Europe due to high energy prices, in Russia due to sanction-related concerns and in China due to a government-implemented hard cap on smelting capacity.
Looking forward: Aluminium price forecast for 2025 and 2030
Looking to the future, there are many tailwinds for aluminium demand due to the metal’s unique properties, which range from its light weight to recyclability.
US president Joe Biden’s $1.2trn infrastructure bill, passed late last year, has allocated $550bn to fund bridges, roads and energy systems over the next five years.
“We are excited to see significant investments in public transit, electric vehicles, and charging infrastructure included in the bill,” said Norsk Hydro’s VP of finance and strategy Michael Stier in an interview with Aluminium Insider.
“All of these pieces of infrastructure will rely heavily on aluminium as a means to reduce vehicle weight, improve efficiency, and enable clever design solutions. We are particularly excited to see new developments within electric vehicle chassis design and battery systems in combination with the phase-change developments needed to normalise charging technology and infrastructure in North America.”
According to Fitch Solution’s aluminium price forecast for 2025, the metal was expected to trade at HKEX:3 ,000 per tonne. Fitch’s aluminium price forecast for 2030 saw the metal trading at HKEX:3 ,300 per tonne.
“Going forward, we expect aluminium prices to remain elevated in the coming years, as aluminium demand is supported by the accelerating shift to a green economy,” Fitch Solutions said in its long-term aluminium price forecast.
The Westpac Market Outlook November 2022 report expected aluminium to trade at HKEX:2 ,200 per tonne in December 2022. The bank’s aluminum price forecast for 2023 saw the metal trading within a range of HKEX:2 ,150 per tonne and HKEX:2 ,500 per tonne during the year. It did not give any aluminium price forecast for 2025 and 2030.
Finally, Sucden Financial said in its quarterly metals report that any doveish remarks from the Federal Reserve regarding the monetary tigthening cycle “will cause a sell-off in the dollar, giving rise to metals prices.”
"If Chinese demand returns and the dollar weakens, this could present significant volatility and price rises, compounded inflationary pressures," added Sucden Financial.
Note that analysts’ predictions can be wrong. Aluminium price forecasts shouldn’t be used as substitutes for your own research. Always conduct your own diligence and remember that your decision to trade or invest should depend on your risk tolerance, expertise in the market, portfolio size and goals.
Keep in mind that past performance doesn’t guarantee future returns, and never invest or trade money you cannot afford to lose.
Hulamin downside update to R2.25M Formation formed on Hulamin and we saw bearish signs
The market then broke below and has stayed below the neckline but is creating a somewhat Rectangle.
They buyers and investors seem to be holding the level and supporting it as much as they can.
Once catalyst and the stock will drop dramatically
200 >21> 7 - Bearish
RSI <50 and bearish divergence
Target R2.25
ABOUT:
Hulamin is an aluminium semi-fabricator business located in South Africa supplying customers across Africa and the world with an extensive range of quality products.
Supported by a sales office in South Africa and a network of international agents, the company sells to leading manufacturers and distributors across many industries around the world.
Hulamin just got a sell signal to R2.25!M Formation has formed on Daily.
Things have been looking very bad for Hulmain for the last year now.
200 >21> 7 - Bearish
RSI <50 and bearish divergence
Target R2.25
General info:
Hulamin (est. 1935) is a South African aluminium rolled products manufacturer and distributor, listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE).
They produce a wide range of aluminium products, including plate, sheet, and foil products.
The company has a strong focus on innovation and has developed a number of unique and patented aluminium products.
There seems to be trouble in the Aluminium space. Either there is an overcapacity, lower demand, better alternatives and higher competition or there is a shift taking place where consumers are turning more and more to renewable sources. This is going to hamper the prices further with these companies.
ALUMINIL Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ALUMINIL is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 211.00, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 201.40, where the recent swing low is. Take profit will be at 230.10, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is.
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Commodities ALUMINIUM Short Trade Thirty Minutes Time Frame30MTF
Short
Indicatrors: Bollinger bands , 200EMA , RSI
Bollinger bands 20Moving average rejection
Price closed below 200EMA
RSI Below 40
Dear traders, I have identified chart levels based on my analysis, major support & resistance levels.
Information shared by me here for educational purpose only. Please don’t trust me or anyone for trading/investment
purpose as it may lead to financial losses. Focus on learning, how to fish, trust on your own trading skills and please do consult your
financial advisor before trading.
Please do review, analyse and share your comments as well. Let us work and win together. Wish you a very happy, healthy & profitable trading day ahead!
Disclaimer: I have analysed the data based on my limited knowledge.
Zinc and aluminium supply tightening amid energy price shockMore and more metal smelters are falling victim to the European energy crisis. Last week, Nyrstar, a large European zinc smelter, announced it would shutter production at its Dutch Budel facility from 1 September 2022 and Norsk Hydro, a significant aluminium producer in Norway, said it will close its Slovakian smelter around the same time.
Aluminium is one of the most energy intense metals to produce, leaving the metal very sensitive to soaring energy prices. Drought in parts of China is also reducing the availability of hydropower. Energy rationing in China resulting from this is likely to see a decline in aluminium production from the largest producing country.
In July, the European Union agreed that it would ration natural gas by 15% until spring 2023. That will mean the Union will have to depend on other forms of energy or cut back on economic production.
The production halts are likely to deepen recession risks in Europe. However, if demand for these metals does not fall as quickly as the supply is contracting, we may find base metals markets significantly tighten.
Inventory in decline
Supply of both zinc and aluminium is already looking tight. London Metal Exchange (LME) inventory of zinc has pared back to pre-covid levels and sits at only 6% of the level seen at the peak in 2012. You would have to go back to the 1990s to see LME inventory of aluminium as low as it is today.
Underappreciated story
While zinc prices popped higher on the day Nyrstar announced its closure, the metal's tightness appears to be an underappreciated story. Net speculative positioning in zinc futures is at the lowest it has been since 2018 and more than 1.5 standard deviations below the 4-year average. Positioning in aluminium is also below average but not as extreme.
Energy transition to boost demand for both metals
Both metals are essential for the energy transition that is required to meet global climate goals. Aluminium is needed to lighten vehicles to reduce their energy needs and is a key element in electrical infrastructure, solar panels and wind turbines. Zinc coatings protect solar panels and wind turbines and prevent rust. A 10MWh offshore wind turbine requires 4 tonnes of zinc, while a 100MWh solar panel park—enough to supply 110,000 homes—requires 240 tonnes of zinc1.
The EU is focused on energy security today as it tries to wean off Russian energy dependency. It will be pushing the energy transition harder as a result.
Zinc backwardation underscores tightness
Zinc is also one of the most backwardated base metals2. Backwardation is when front-month delivery futures prices are higher than the second or third-month delivery prices. That is also an indication of market tightness, i.e. that people are willing to pay more for immediate delivery rather than wait a couple of months, indicating they need the metal soon and it is in high demand. Investors in rolling futures strategies tend to benefit from markets in backwardation: as the futures approach spot prices as time passes, the price should rise (assuming the curve shape remains the same).
Conclusion
The energy crisis in Europe and elsewhere is driving supply challenges in the base metals market. There have been notable smelters shuttered in zinc and aluminium. Zinc stands out as a metal with low speculative length, indicating an underappreciated story.
Sources
1 Word Economic Forum
2 See Commodity Monthly Monitor, July 2022
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
ALUMINIUM FUTURES (ALUMINIUM1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 224.00
Pivot: 217.75
Support : 208.80
Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving below the ichimoku cloud and along the descending trendline which supports our bearish bias that price will rise and drop from our pivot at 217.75 in line with the overlap resistance, 23.6% fibonacci retracement, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 208.80 in line with the -27.2% fibonacci expansion and 78.6% fibonacci projection.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break through pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance level at 224.00 in line with the swing high resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentals: As aluminum supply is being squeezed by soaring demand, we have a bullish view on aluminum.
Metals Continue to Outperform MarketsThe energy crisis continues to provide a strong support, not only for crude prices, but also for industrial metals. Last week aluminium added 9.2% and copper prices gained 9.17%. The absolute leader was zinc that jumped 20.49% in price.
The price of aluminium, which is one of the most energy-intensive commodities, is at a record high. On Monday morning its price peaked at $3288.75 per metric ton, that is 17.56% above 2008 record highs. I suggest the upside movement will continue and we may soon have prices close to $3500 per ton.Copper has exceeded $10,300 per ton while spot contracts are traded with highest premium over futures.
Copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange fell to the lows of 1974 this October. Goldman Sachs analysts suggest that copper stocks may run short by the second quarter of 2022.
Copper prices this May rose above $10,746 per ton. The excitement in the commodities market may push prices towards new records. The technical picture highlights the possibility of copper prices soaring to $11,800-12,000 if it passes the May high.
The price chart of Zinc, the third most popular non-ferrous metal in the world, points to another spin of the rally as its prices rose to $3830 per ton. Belgium Nyrstar N.V., a leading manufacturer of zinc, has reduced its zinc output by up to half at its plants in Budel, the Netherlands, Balen in Belgium and Auby in France since October 13 due to a significant rise in electricity prices.
Some Chinese steelworks forcedly cut production of zinc due to a shortage of electric energy that was caused by record coal prices. No wonder zinc prices will rose to $4300-4500 per ton. Although the international Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said that zinc will see a surplus of 217,000 tonnes in 2022.
The energy crisis did not only impact Europe, but China reversed its activity in production and joined green economy acolytes. The Chinese industrial sector is still suffering from energy shortage caused by a lack of coal and environmental requirements to steelworks. All this mean that we could hardly expect any change to the existing upward trend in the near future.
Profit From Aluminium Price Surge. Low EV/EBITDA combined with high demand for light metals (lightweight electric cars, bicycles, scooters etc.), raging inflation, and an all-time low gives this stock a good chance.
I've been in since $14 and didn't expect it to move so quickly. It's a good opportunity to put some money. Don't go all in, at the end it's a lightly sketchy Chinese stock.
But if you are into the metals industry, allocating 2-5% of your portfolio seems like a safe move for this one.
just an ideafind it interesting, this is the sum of all commodities divided by the money supply.
probably doesn't mean anything, anyway interesting.
Looking at the parabolic route of m2 and the commodities basket divided by it didn't move as expected because of it's rally the rally. lot's of money still in the markets.
give me your perspective and ideas