Aluminum
MCX Aluminium Intraday Tips For TodayAccording to this chart, aluminium is moving flat under the rectangle pattern. The top of this rectangle is the resistance , and the bottom of this rectangle is the support . The trend is making frequent parallel channels between the support and resistance of this rectangle.
At present, aluminium is playing into support trendline (B) . There is a crucial support. Fakeout, volume spike, tail, massive buying pressure, and S-RSI crossover is made in that area.
So, break out of the crucial support means downfall for the levels of 143.6 - 142.6 .
...but aluminium will try to climb because of 50 & 10 MA crossover. Therefore we may see prices at 146.6 - 147.4 - 148+ soon.
AA: $8 Short Sell-off Target + Long PotentialFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously or as financial advice. As always, this is on opinion basis. That being said, let me get into a few of my insights. Right now given the time period we are in, AA went down in the demand curve as a precious metals provider for aluminum mining. I expect an $8 target is imminent during this bearish period, and one price corrections happen, it can have long term hold potential.
Alrosa near the bounceAlrosa been showing bad results for the whole 2019 year. Went below previous lows and now going deeper. Support at 69.5 bounced the price, and at day timeframe it looks nicely oversold and ready to bounce. But at week timeframe the situation is still dramatic. If current 70 SR won't stop the price, next support that has potential to stop the fall is at 64. In any case these stocks will have to recover for some time, before any kind of uptrend may appear.
ALUMINUM FUTURES BY DANIEL BRUNO, CMTDOWNTREND FROM 2015 ALMOST COMPLETELY RETRACED
PRICE HAS MORE THAN DOUBLED IN 3 MONTHS
SECTOR ROTATION PROBABLY UNDERWAY, GOLD AND OIL ALSO UP
GEOPOLITICAL UNREST IS AFFECTING PRICE:
The inclusion of Russia’s aluminum giant RUSAL on the US sanctions list may significantly alter the metals market, threatening to break global supply chains and spark a deficit in the crucial industrial metal.
Aluminum futures surged by nearly 10 percent in London after the US Treasury Department sanctioned RUSAL and its owner Oleg Deripaska Friday.
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Oleg Deripaska © Vladimir Astapkovich London Stock Exchange stops trade of Russian firm whose owner is on US sanctions list
Metal stocks have continued to rally this week after the London Metal Exchange fell in line with the US measure and suspended trading of RUSAL shares. The recent spike in metal prices has reportedly become the biggest three-day leap since 2009.
The Russian company is the world’s second-largest aluminum producer and one of the biggest global supplies. RUSAL covers some 14 percent of global supplies outside top producer China, according to analysts at CRU. The producer’s shares plunged nearly 50 percent since Friday, when the US imposed the penalties.
Nearly 30 percent of Russia’s aluminum exports go to the US market, so the move against RUSAL is a serious blow for the company, according to expert analyst at Russian broker Finam, Aleksey Kalachev. He says that the aluminum giant might redeploy the deals into alternative currencies
RUSAL’s share in the US market comprises some 15 percent. “The company’s exit from the market will trigger a local deficit in the US, which in turn will lead to a price rally for American consumers,” Kalachev told RT, citing the recent surge of the US aluminum stocks.
© LME
The US could partially replace the Russian giant with suppliers from Canada and Australia, as well as from Middle East producers, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, according to a B&N Bank analyst, Anton Pokatovich. “However, Canadian production capacity is currently fully engaged with orders and is not likely to fully replace Russian imports,” he said.
Pokatovich added that even a short-term deficit would provoke price hikes for the metal, though they are not likely to go beyond $2,300 per ton from the current $2,112.
Apart from the US, the sanctioned producer will definitely retain Turkey as its second export market, according to the Finam broker. “It’s difficult to say what impact the punitive measures will have on the EU, which is currently the third biggest market for RUSAL,” said Kalachev.
Aluminum, discovered just 150 years ago, now ranks number two in the consumption volumes among all the metals, topped only by steel. This highly industrialized metal can found in everything from soda cans or cell phones to window frames and airplanes. Aluminum is widely used in various industries from manufacturing and construction to auto and aerospace.
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Wednesday his government should look at US goods or goods produced in Russia by American companies when considering a possible response to the sanctions.
Arconic BreakoutArconic Inc. (ARNC) engineers, manufactures, and sells lightweight metals of aluminum, titanium, and nickel worldwide. It operates through three segments: Global Rolled Products, Engineered Products and Solutions, and Transportation and Construction Solutions. The company is set to benefit from the strong global economy which will increase demand for its lightweight metals. Arconic is a leading provider of Aluminum to the aerospace and automotive industry which are both experiencing strong demand. The stock recently broke out to all time highs after a prolonged period of consolidation. Watch for the trend to continue higher, but sell if the stock falls back below its recent breakout.
AA - Neutral/LongAlcoa successfully breached its downward trendline (blue) and made it past key resistance at 8.51, in line with my expectations for this stock to perform bullishly based on technicals at the time. The picture has changed somewhat.
First, note the slightly decreasing volume during its 2016 breakout signalling that its momentum is decreasing, albeit not significantly. Secondly, we can notice that the RSI is at 65 and that a sell-off of a few days is due. Finally, notice the spinning tops on the last day of trading. This indicates a tug of war between the bears and the bulls - the stock moving wildly up and down before settling into an uncertain close only a minuscule amount below its open. This is a difficult position for the stock to close at, because of key resistance it ran into at around 9.55 back in November and December. Ultimately the stock needed three tries to penetrate this level.
Assuming there is no major macroeconomic news one way or the other, I expect this stock to trade down for a few days. I see two major possibilities for it trading down. 1) a few down days in keeping with its current trend before it breaches resistance at 9.55 and establishes that price as new support while it trends for a time between 9.55 and its next key resistance at approx 10.20.
2) It may also trade dramatically lower to support at 8.50 and build moment for a time (many days) between 9.5 and 8.5.
Ultimately I think this stock is headed up for a while longer, but it needs to regain some momentum and the bullish signals are less significant than they were several days ago. Additionally, because its closer to a major resistance line at 10.20ish than it was several days ago the risk/reward is less enticing in the short term. All of this points to a neutral, take a wait and see approach.