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AMAT

THE WEEK AHEAD: NVDA, AMAT EARNINGS; MJ, USO, SLV, EEMAs of Friday close, NVDA and AMAT appear to have the volatility metrics I'm looking for in earnings-related volatility contraction play (>70 rank/>50 implied). NVDA (70/67) announces on Thursday after market close. The iron condor pictured here pays 1.73 credit with break evens wide of the expected move. AMAT (68/48) announces on Thursday after market close, with the Dec 21st 31/37 short strangle paying 1.64 (50% take profit of .82) and the 34 short straddle paying 3.89 (25% take profit of .97). On the exchange-traded front: USO (100/35), SLV (99/22), EEM (85/26), XOP (76/38), and OIH (75/36) round out the top symbols by rank, with USO, XOP, and OIH being no surprise given the beating oil has take over the past several weeks. Although I am mostly selling premium in XOP here, I could see also taking a bullish directional shot in OIH, which has broken through long-term horizontal support; XOP and XLE have yet to close in on the bottom of their long-term ranges. Alternatively, I could see doing a similar, bullish assumption play in one of the higher volatility petro underlyings that have earnings in the rear view mirror: OXY (75/30), COP (74/33), or BP (70/36), for example. ASHR (74/33) is worth a passing mention here, but if I'm going to play China, it's going to be via the more liquid FXI (65/28). MJ (--/64)* is also worth an honorable mention, with the more recognizable cannabis underlyings -- CRON, CGC, and TLRY -- all announcing earnings this week. The currently unfortunate thing about MJ is that it's not getting decent volume yet, so options liquidity isn't the best for those who'd rather not be on the single name roller coaster. As far as the majors are concerned, some volatility came out of the broad market post-mid-term elections: SPY 30-day's now at 15.3%; QQQ at 24.6%; and IWM at 22.8%, so if I'm going to add broad market short premium here, it's going to be in the Q's and/or RUT/IWM. Lastly: UNG. Last week marked a kind of WTF, weather forecast-related spike in natty, with UNG printing a new 52-week high. I was previously looking at 27.5 as an area of interest for short with 31-ish being the next stop, but thought November was too early in the natural gas seasonality cycle to be putting on a short play (usually, a downward put diagonal (See Post Below)* with the back month in April or later). Now that it's whipped through 31 in three seconds flat, I'm going to be patient here and see if it grinds higher throughout December, even though forecasts are generally calling for a "meh" winter temperature-wise. * -- It doesn't currently have a 52-week rank, since it hasn't been around that long. ** -- Naturally, that setup's no longer good. I'll post a revised setup here shortly.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by NaughtyPines
3
AMAT - Buy the post-earnings dipThe fundamentals: Another quarter of solid growth for Applied Materials, who provide equipment used in semiconductor fabrication. While investors cheer on (the now overbought) MU, AMAT also has room to grow. Even if growth appears to be slowing, this dip puts it at a good price. The technicals: RSI(15) is just under 50, meaning it is neither overbought nor oversold. The current price is also in the bottom half of the Bollinger Bands. EMA50 has been decreasing for the past 2 months, but remains above EMA200. Implied volatility (IV30) is around 30% for options. The play: Long under $52, targetting $58. Buying calls can be a good play while volatility is relatively low. You can also sell covered calls
NASDAQ:AMAT
by dvdgege5
1
AMAT Gap Down on Guidance - Right Down to Strong Support. . .Applied Materials fell hard on guidance today. Did AMAT stock get put on clearance sale with the drop? Whether or not the stock deserved to fall almost double-digit percentages on the day is subject to debate, but the important thing is it fell to a very strong support level - and the tech story continues to look good. Thank you for for lending me your attention! AMAT provides equipment and support for chipmakers. There are several reasons why chipmakers are going to see robust business in the coming months and years - AI, automation, blockchain, I.o.T, data, etc. - meaning Applied Materials' customer base is ready and willing to do robust business with the company. As the automation and data gold rush continues, AMAT's customers will be buying more and more equipment and services. There's also the 5G wildcard - while slow adoption of 5G technology doesn't necessarily hurt AMAT's business, a 5G tech connectivity boom would be a great boon to AMAT's prospects. The technicals are as good a story as the fundamentals. Applied Materials fell from the low\mid $50's to close around $49.50 (down a little more than 8%) on 5/18. Looking back on the chart, we can see that the $48 area provides a strong support floor. AMAT approached that support zone intraday as selling momentum pushed price lower during the early trading hours - and selling pressure as well as lackadaisical summer trading may see price through to lower levels in the coming week or two - but Applied Mat'ls miss on expected guidance doesn't change the overall situation of the company or the tech sector. Gaps like these tend to fill. Look for price to trend higher as tech remains strong and the chip manufacturers continue to buy products and services from AMAT, and as traders take advantage of the early Memorial Day sale price of Applied Materials' stock. Please like, follow, and share, and maybe we can have fun and do great things together. Thanks again! See it on the site: holsturr.com/category/markets/charts/ ** For speculative and research purposes only - good luck! **
NASDAQ:AMATLong
by holsturr
Applied Materials Another unpublished ideaI had posted this to my personal page. I had seen this double pattern happen a few times going back. I ended up missing the bottom by a bit but feel I still got in at a good spot. (*Note this was my first ever stock purchase) Since the run up has happened quicker than expected I am not sure what to think. It would seem another small correction is coming like in the circle. After that another strong uptrend. I will try to update with a new trend after some more data. I see great potential with AMAT and feel its a good long term investment.
NASDAQ:AMAT
by gmoney_crypto