Amazon
Amazon -> Kind Of Left BehindHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
Just recently Amazon stock perfectly retested and also rejected a quite obvious previous weekly support zone which was turned very strong support again.
After this first initial bounce, Amazon stock then created a rejection of a long term downtrend-line and is once again approaching the weekly support area from which I do expect another rejection towards the upside.
On the daily timeframe I am now just waiting for the market to retest the previous support area and if we then have some bullish confirmation on the lower timeframes, it is quite likely that we will see at least a short term rejection towards the upside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Amazon Call or Puts ? The Saga Continues Today Amazon broken out of a important trend line. Im bearish on the stock due to the dominant down trending pattern. it also has created a ascending Triangle Pattern at level $94.79 being the top and bullish support developed at $92.29. Please share what do you think?
Major support levels Im watching for a bounce
NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:AMZN
$92.29
$91.62
$90.39
$87.02
Nasdaq NQ QQQ - Reality Will Be a Tough Pill for PermabearsNo matter how much you read in the establishment media or in the narrative-controlled and socially engineered Twitter and Discord and Reddit forums about "recession" this and "bear market" that, the reality is that while some individual stocks have certainly been a bear market for well over a year, the indexes are not a bear market.
I made the call back at the beginning of November that the Nasdaq would head towards 14,000. The results were that it went up to 12,000 and came back near the lows, and three months has passed.
Nasdaq NQ - Unpopular Opinion #2,118: 14,000 is Coming
Price action is easy, timing is hard. That's the most significant thing I have enlightened to.
But here we are in February after a serious rally, and now that the post-FOMC pump has come and gone, the narrative has become "this is the top" and "the crash is coming."
However, just look at the weekly and monthly bars. This isn't bear market stuff.
Monthly
The literal last five months of Nasdaq futures has been a psychological operation against the COVID-June and COVID-October trendlines and the 2022 low of the year.
It's incredibly obvious on the weekly candles
Weekly
The most notable thing is that the end of the year did not breach the October low, and 2023 opened with a big bounce.
This tells us both that the low of the year isn't very likely to have transpired yet, and that we're still far away from a LOY unfolding.
Moreover, I've seen posts on Twitter that were tracking the SPX and the VIX against the 2008 GFC, 2002, and even the Dot Com bubble, and the January bullish divergence has thrown out all the prior price action to at least the 1970s crashes.
It's time for a revolution in our thinking.
What people don't understand or want to understand about the fundamentals is that when the fundamentals are bad, price is often bound to do what's contrary to expectations, and go up. So long as the market makers have time to work with, they will raise the prices and raise the prices for the purposes of selling YOU, retail dead money, the stocks they've held for a long time and bought more of at each successive low, at higher and higher prices in anticipation of the real crash.
The secondary effect this has is that while you're told by whoever it is that you're consciously or unconsciously taking orders from that the markets are about to crash BECAUSE RECESSION, FED FUNDS RATE, PROFIT/EARNINGS TOO HIGH, you're buying puts while it goes up. They expire worthless, you blow your account, and some Chad at JP Morgan goes for Happy Hour at 1:00 and wakes up under his car after a prostitute stole his Rolex.
Modern human life is total garbage. Return to tradition and find art and family again.
What's important about where we're at right now is that Nasdaq has finally retraced to its September CPI dump candle pivot, which it failed to breach, and looks to be setting up a double top after Friday's pullback.
In my opinion, we're about to get a very nice pullback that will serve as a simultaneous scare to shake out longs, and also a trap for permabears to leverage their entire accounts on puts and 1.5-3x short ETFs.
I'm specifically looking for a dump back under 12,000, which I believe is a long for price action that will take out the August highs by the end of March.
If you don't believe that Nasdaq can take out the August highs, then let me ask you a question: Why did the Dow, the most bearish of all indexes, take out the August highs in the middle of December?
In fact, the Dow as it stands is less than 10% away from setting a new all time high.
After what now amounts to 3 months of market action that isn't going lower combined with the Federal Reserve slowing its rate hikes, ask yourself why you think stocks should go down?
The truth is that the markets are going to crash. A terrifying market crash unlike the others has been arranged. But why do you think that the indexes either setting new highs, or doing a 76% retracement to the old highs, or setting a double top at the old highs, is out of the question before it unfolds?
Nobody has an answer to that, besides that they think it's out of the realm of possibility, for really no reason at all.
What you think can happen has nothing to do with what is actually happening, and this is the fatal flaw of an ordinary person, who only believes in what they can see while refusing to believe in what they cannot see.
Once the truth stands before your eyes, it's too late to profit. All you can do is feel regret that you missed the opportunity. Not so bad with the stock market, but when it comes to major things in life, there are no mulligans in the Cosmos.
Nasdaq to 14,500 by the end of March is my call. Buy the February dip if we get one and take profit over the old highs.
Red Communist China is the Blackest Swan
As always, you need to be careful in bullish market conditions, because an enormous black swan exists lingering in wait. That black swan is the Wuhan Pneumonia situation in mainland China as Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party are on the verge of collapse.
The CCP claims that 85,000 people (~54/1 million on a population-adjusted basis) have died from COVID since the pandemic began. This is despite the virus being engineered there, patient zero being in Wuhan, and the country being the most populous in the world. For comparison's sake, the US has a quarter the population, but has lost 1.1 million people (3,000~/1 million) to COVID.
Even nearby Japan is posting 600 deaths per million people.
Is it really realistic to believe the Party has suffered a factor of 60 fewer losses than a country across the ocean?
And this is the same CCP that is a lying, murderous regime who has gone so far as to commit the unprecedented crime of organ harvesting during its persecution of Falun Gong.
The same CCP that covered up the 2003 SARS pandemic and made it seem to the outside world that barely anyone died.
The same CCP that every single human being who wants a future should be opposing with all of their might.
If you don't want a future, why are you trying to make money trading stocks? If you lose your future, can you spend your winnings and have a happy life?
It's up to you what you believe. An ordinary human has the flaw where they don't believe anything that isn't in front of their face, which is why they like to fall for the lies of establishment media and social media influencers.
The wise ones figure it out before the cards turn face up on the river and the dealer awards the pot, though. The fools get stacked and will lose more than just some casino chips.
NYSE FANG+ Index: wait is better⌛' The NYSE FANG+ Index is a rules-based, equal-weighted equity benchmark designed to track
the performance of 10 highly-traded growth stocks of technology and tech-enabled companies in the
technology, media & communications and consumer discretionary sectors'.
Companies included in the index:
Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, NVIDIA, Snowflake and Advanced Micro Devices.
Graphically speaking, I would expect a better definition of which way the price is going.
Looking at the Stochastic Momentum Index, I would say that opening a long position would be too risky.
Below are some possible scenarios:
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
Scenario 3:
Scenario 4:
Scenario 5:
Multiple Ideas for MELI the next weekLike you can see the Graph. MELI has a good fundamentals from the last Earnings and Revenue. One the F. Volume profile levels reach the 61,8% of the Fibonacci Retracement. So It's time to wait if the POC moves to that area and make things more interesting. The other Escenario is Wait for a Breakout. I think both Ideas are good if the Ocillator goes in a red wave marking a good retracement and go bullish again with more power and momentum
Solid Level for AMZNI have been stalking NASDAQ:AMZN share prices for months now watching as it retraced from the All Time High down to a full 50% Retracement from the All Time Low. This is a pretty epic pullback level that took decades to create.
The 6 month downtrend from 146 > 81 created its own 50% Retracement at 114 as Resistance. February earnings popped to this level and confirmed it. As the January bull run fades AMZN comes back again to test the broader level.
Even as we drill lower to the intraday timeframe we can see the 50% Retracements begin to setup. The volatility around today's FOMC minutes shows respect for the level. This sets up a low risk opportunity to play the decadal Support.
The Search For Liquidity in ERA of TighteningYoung corporate executives in Mumbai, who may never have read Marx, were recently circulating by e-mail portions from Karl Marx's 150-year-old writings which lucidly talk about a stage in capitalism where banks would throw ever larger doses of cheap debt for consumption until there is a crises of repayment and the state would step in to take over the banks. Indeed, Marx had even said the original proponents of free trade will be forced to turn protectionist at some stage of globalisation!
So it was only appropriate that the G-20 leaders should have met so close to Marx's grave. In fact, there are many other warning signals the G-20 leaders can take from the writings of Marx, undoubtedly one of the greatest thinkers of the 19th century.
Seen in Marxian terms, the G-20 leaders represent the global bourgeoisie which wants to find new ways of revolutionising the instruments of production to take global capitalism to a higher level from what seems like a deep stagnation in large parts of the world today. In this context, Marx had specifically spoken about periods of commercial crises in advanced capitalist societies which are visited by an epidemic of overproduction
The epidemic of overproduction creates total disorder in bourgeois society, threatening existing property and productive forces at large.
Amazon -> Bullish Scenario Playing OutHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
From a weekly perspective Amazon recently tested a quite obvious previous weekly support area from which we started a quite nice rally towards the upside.
Considering the fact that Amazon also broke above a key weekly downtrend-line, I think that we have some more overall upside potential.
From a daily timeframe we are currently retesting previous resistance which is now turned strong support, so if we see some more bullish confirmation inside of this zone, there is a high chance that we will actually see the continuation towards the upside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Amazon: Slowly getting there 🐌Amazon is still working on its correction - well, we might have to drag the stock to the green target zone between $95.21 and $85.51 since it is currently moving sideways. Once the green wave is fulfilled within the target zone, the trend can turn back North and rise above the resistance line at $117.50. Our alternative scenario with a probability of 40% implies, that the Amazon stock could ignore the green target zone and exceed the $117.50-mark right away.
Amazon: Fundamental Analysis + Next TargetIn the last year, the price of Amazon stock has decreased by more than 30%. Following profits that were poorer than experts had anticipated in 2023, the company's shares had a temporary recovery.
However, Amazon's long-term thesis is still compelling, and this could be a terrific opportunity to purchase the company during the current dip. This is due to a number of factors.
The macroeconomic environment may soon improve.
Although it is still too early to say whether the Nasdaq bear market is finished, there does appear to be some hope. Even though interest rates are high right now, inflation is not decreasing. This might persuade the Federal Reserve to loosen its stringent monetary policy without sending the American economy into a downturn, a situation known as "soft landing."
Although Amazon's stock price appears to be benefiting from favorable market factors, the company's recent results for the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, 2022, leave much to be desired. Net sales rose 9% year over year to $149.2 billion thanks to growth in North American e-commerce and cloud computing, which helped offset a significant decline in international e-commerce. Net income fell 98% from $14.3 billion to just $300 million.
That's a very troubling result. But investors should look at the situation in the right context. Amazon's business is cyclical, which means it is very sensitive to changes in macroeconomic conditions -- including inflation and rising interest rates, which can hurt consumer confidence.
And while the global economy may weather the recession, many companies are choosing to behave more cautiously, postponing enterprise cloud migrations or moving to cheaper service levels, resulting in slower Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue growth.
In the long term, e-commerce and cloud computing remain growth opportunities for Amazon. Executives believe public and private enterprises are still in the early stages of moving their computing needs to the cloud.
And in 2023, Amazon plans to bring its e-commerce platform to new markets in Latin America and Africa. The company's scale allows it to achieve cost and network efficiencies to stay ahead of competitors in the industry.
Amazon stock, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 68, doesn't look particularly cheap compared to the S&P 500 average of 22. But investors should keep in mind that, as a cyclical company, its current earnings are unusually low and do not necessarily reflect its long-term earnings potential.
Despite its near-term problems, Amazon remains one of the best bets for long-term e-commerce and cloud computing, and for patient investors, the stock still looks like a buy.
Nasdaq's journey post breakout/ rates to look out for 06.02.20232 possible scenarios:
1) Price continues to charge forward post big "falling wedge" pattern breakout up, targeting 15,300 as breakout target (equal distance of wedge width measured from breakout) with 12,800 "rising wedge" resistance broken this scenario will be confirmed.
13,600 is in the way and could be correction back down 12,200-300 once reached, or can charge above to 15,300 straight.
2) Price drops from "rising wedge" resistance at 12,800 and breaks below 12,200 "rising wedge" support, which could target lower to 10,800 which would be retest of "falling wedge" breakout and target of "rising wedge" breakout combined.
A lot depends on FED policy and market sentiment, suggestable action would be once "rising wedge" (12,800 to 12,200) breaks down or up, indicating a much more clear direction.
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Do your own research and always trade with caution.
I am here for any questions or comments, would appreciate any interaction A LOT!
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