Expected Key Points Amazon 11 May 2022Amazon 11 May 2022
The current implied volatility is at 54.27%/year
So that converted into daily is 3.42%
The yesterday close price was on 2177
So based on that our
TOP 2250
BOT 2100
This channel has a 80.5% change to sustain based on the last 3006 candles
At the same time with 89% we can affirm that the price is going to be above
TOP 2185
BOT 2170
From fundamental point, today we have CPI release and this marks a huge volatility moment
From volume point, current POC is around 2170
We can expect now with close to 70% that the market is going to end up between
TOP 2185 - 2250
BOT 2100 - 2170
Amazon
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May Amazon AMAZON
9 - 13 May
The weekly VXAZN-> Volatility Index for AMAZON
Implied = 50.24
In this we have to standard it for weekly session
39.02 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 6.97%
My historical product is telling me with 1x coficient that the expected movement for this week
E Volatility = 51.59 / sqrt(52) = 7.15%
With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 83% chance that the market
stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol
So for next week this range for us is going to be
TOP - 2460
BOT - 2131
AMAZON NEEDS AROUND +40% FOR RECOVER ATH !!$AMZN what's going on? Jeff Bezos where are you?
I don't think we'll see Amazon stocks under $2k, there is an important support and I think that around 2100 level is a very nice price for buy AMZN for long term.
I like #Amazon and I didn't buy stocks, but I'll buy and accumulate $AMZN if it drops hard around/under 2k, its not probable in my opinion but let's see :)
M2 Adjusted FAAMNG Tutorial/AnalysisThe current FAANG symbol does not have a very long history. Depending on the symbol, you get a chart that either starts from mid-2019 or 2016. We get couple more years of data in this chart, back to early 2014. I weighted each stock equally according to its 60 month average, and adjusted for M2 expansion, which gives us a very consistent support line. There's also a horizontal resistance line that extends from 2018 onward that is currently being tested as support, which raises the questions:
Is historical support now resistance? Is the resistance line now support? Or will we drop below the resistance line once again?
It wouldn't surprise me if we got a bounce here to once again test that the Support line is *actually* now resistance and the drop in price wasn't a fluke. Which, maybe it was. But on the other hand, smaller caps have gotten completely crushed, look at the M2 Adjusted Russell 2000 for example:
We're getting close to the "value" zone, but we're still at the bottom range of wholesale prices. I wouldn't be surprised if there's even more stop-loss style liquidations at these prices.
There are many many unprofitable companies, roughly 50%?!, that are feeling the pain in the Russell. It's not crazy to think that once the smaller caps fall, the rest of the larger dominoes fall. First, there were drops in sort of intangibly valued companies like Netflix/Peloton. Market shrugged it off. Then we saw a single day -0.25 trillion$ valuation drop in Facebook. Market shrugged it off. Now in the past few weeks, Amazon is finally looking terrible, and this is the first time in YEARS that the market seems to be taking it seriously. How long until Apple/Tesla bite the bullet? The market can only shrug off so much localized losses before it becomes systemic. It's only a matter of weeks or months, in my opinion, until we see the remaining FAANMG and others reflect the state of rest of the market.
So how did i manage to get the symbol on the chart?
This method is not perfect. There's lots of ways to do this. I decided to equally weight each stock by their 60 month SMA, given that mean reversion is a well known phenomenon. But you can use any anything you wish, as long as it normalizes the price in a way that you like. Literally anything.
First, I wrote down the SMAs like this:
60 month SMA:
FB = 221.34
AMZN = 2250.99
AAPL = 85.60
MSFT = 173.64
NFLX = 380.58
GOOG = 1585.70
Notice that AAPL has the lowest average, 85.6.
We can use AAPL as our "benchmark".
Divide every SMA by 85.6:
FB = 2.5857
AMZN = 26.296
AAPL = 1
MSFT = 2.0285
NFLX = 4.4460
GOOG = 18.524
Now we can add each price together, and divide by our adjuster that we just calculated, to get a fairly crude, but accurate enough, equally average-weighted basket:
AAPL+
FB/2.5857+
AMZN/26.296+
MSFT/2.0285+
NFLX/4.4460+
GOOG/18.524
Mash it all together, you get:
NASDAQ:AAPL+NASDAQ:FB/2.5857+NASDAQ:AMZN/26.296+NASDAQ:MSFT/2.0285+NASDAQ:NFLX/4.4460+NASDAQ:GOOG/18.524
And adjust for M2 if you want:
(NASDAQ:AAPL+NASDAQ:FB/2.5857+NASDAQ:AMZN/26.296+NASDAQ:MSFT/2.0285+NASDAQ:NFLX/4.4460+NASDAQ:GOOG/18.524)/FRED:WM2NS
This looks ugly though. The value is so small, there's no horizontal bars on the chart because of a display bug in TV or some other problem. So we can simply multiply the entire series by a value. in this case 15, until we get something that looks good.
(NASDAQ:AAPL+NASDAQ:FB/2.5857+NASDAQ:AMZN/26.296+NASDAQ:MSFT/2.0285+NASDAQ:NFLX/4.4460+NASDAQ:GOOG/18.524)/FRED:WM2NS*15
There's a lot of ideas fairly similar to this out there, but I hope this helps someone who might be curious how people came up with these crazy long symbols. Try it with your favorite sectors! Make your own sector benchmarks. You can combine up to 10 symbols at once! Here we only used 6 symbols (7 if you include WM2NS).
Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets :)
Amazon a good buy at $2000I feel there are some good setups coming in this bearish market. Amazon being one of them for you large cap players. I have a zone between $2150-$2000 which is a monthly fib level. 90% back to the highs from $2000. Even if it dips lower, you know Amazon will perform come a bull market again and go make new highs eventually. Set aside cash to average down if it drops below $2000. The next level down would be the monthly 500ema at $1700. Unsure we will get that far though.
Let me know your thoughts.
AMZN uptrend lineAMZN could start to build a triangle with the downtrend line from nov 2021 and the long term trending line. If finally it breaks the uptrend line, it could search the support around 2050$. If it respect the trending line, it could go again to the 3000~3800 range. It is soon to say and it is only speculation but despite of the bad last earnings and the bad macro environment, AMZN fundamentals are enough good to keep the uptrend.
Will Amazon (AMZN) replicate the past ?AMZN closed below its 200 MA (W) for the 1st time since 2008.
Past events do not reproduce the future but out of curiosity, just an idea of what it might look like if we look at how it happened in the past. We are here in logarithmic scale (necessarily).
Disclaimer: All content has only educational and informational purposes, and never should be used or take it as financial advice.
Amazon key points May 5 2022We can estimate with a 85% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 4.23%
For this the market will stay within
TOP 2625
BOT 2412
At the same time We can estimate with a 81% confidence that the volatility for today is going move more than
0.6%
For this the market will stay above the
TOP 2533
BOT 2503
From the fundamental point of view, yesterday we had the release of the interest rates, so I believe currently we are in a short relief moment, where we can have for some days/weeks a small bull trend
For today we have no big volatility news, so we cant expect big surprises.
AMZN - Attractive Area!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
AMZN is overall bullish trading above the brown trendline and now approaching it again acting as non-horizontal support.
Moreover, the blue area is a demand zone as we previously had an aggressive movement upward from it.
So the highlighted purple circle is a very strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of demand zone and the brown trendline.
As per my trading style:
I will be looking for potential bullish reversal setups on lower timeframes (like a double bottom , trendline break , and so on...)
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
AMAZON LONG TERM PRICE ZONE CHANGING Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It sells merchandise and content purchased for resale from third-party sellers through physical and online stores. The company also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Rings, and Echo and other devices; provides Kindle Direct Publishing, an online service that allows independent authors and publishers to make their books available in the Kindle Store; and develops and produces media content. In addition, it offers programs that enable sellers to sell their products on its websites, as well as its stores; and programs that allow authors, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, skill and app developers, and others to publish and sell content. Further, the company provides compute, storage, database, analytics, machine learning, and other services, as well as fulfillment, advertising, publishing, and digital content subscriptions. Additionally, it offers Amazon Prime, a membership program, which provides free shipping of various items; access to streaming of movies and series; and other services. The company serves consumers, sellers, developers, enterprises, and content creators.
For 2 years, from 2018 to 2020, price range between 1596 - 2038 zone.
With the insane money printing of FED, price range increased to a lot higher zone between 2883 - 3752.
This zone lasted for 1.5 year.
Price breakdown from that zone to the 2448 support but this is not a strong support.
If price cant go back up to the 2883 - 3752 zone it will retest 2448 and probably breakdown to the 2038 zone.
Below 2038 price will consolidate and go back to the last zone of 1596 - 2038.
Important support levels for long term targets
2448 if price cant hold it and breakdown below, price can go much lower.
2038
1723
1596
1344
Important resistance levels for long term targets
2696
2883
Upward price movements will be limited because FEDs actions and investors should very careful with long positions.
Thanks.
Follow for more ideas and charts.
Amazon (AMZN) | 2018/19 Resistance Becomes Support!Hi,
A lot has happened, a lot to come but still cannot stay quiet to not share the technical buying zone for AMZN.
Criteria:
1. The trendline
2. Different TF EMA's
3. Strong resistance becomes support
4. Round number $2000
5. AB=CD
6. Fibo levels
7. Fibo Extension
8. 50% drop from ATH
Do your own research and if this matches with my TA you are ready to go.
Regards,
Vaido
AMZN Back to 1300, Nasdaq Back to 7000Back at the end of 2018, I made an attempt to call a longer term bear market for big tech. Linked below are some of those posts. I was new to markets, and all I did was look at the chart. Even back then, the charts for Apple and Amazon looked ridiculous, but now it's undeniable that they've seen parabolic growth. This is the AMZN chart zoomed further in, where you can see how I was dead wrong at the end of 2018, as the money printer and QE kicked in again, taking the market to new highs shortly before the pandemic hit. Then, the pandemic hit and the Fed exhausted the last of its firepower. Will they save the market again?
Above, I marked the 1600 and 1300 levels as areas of support, should the current level fail. Also shown on my Amazon chart is the long term uptrend, which has now been broken and confirmed as resistance. I expect markets to fall back to pre-stimulus levels, as the 2021 rally was largely "fake." Even though some of these companies may continue to remain profitable, I think some disappointing earnings will start to trickle in, signaling a depressing outlook for growth in the near future. Take Netflix, for example. It's already getting closer to testing some of those earlier levels. Perhaps it's a "canary in the coal mine" situation.
What's especially concerning is that even companies that have exceeded expectations (like Tesla) cannot sustain a rally. Look at that earnings pump and dump:
This implies that market participants are exiting regardless, and booking profits after many years of easy economic policy. Now here's something truly hilarious. Elon Musk and Bill Gates claim to be shorting each other's companies! What happens in this scenario? They both still profit. Billionaires are just playing games.
Here are some levels marked for Tesla. If Elon continues to innovate and do well, TSLA may not drop quite as much as some others, but that's still a lot of profit on the table. He's even sold some of his own shares himself:
And Microsoft:
Why Would the Fed Just Let It Happen?
The easiest way to fix inflation is perhaps to just simply let things unwind. As big corporations lose profits, smaller businesses close, and people lose their jobs, their homes...a big financial crunch occurs that shocks the living daylights out of our systems. New solutions will need to be found, some of which may seem obvious, such as taxing the wealthy and corporations much more heavily. Some we haven't even dreamt of yet. Here's a speculation: Community living becomes more desirable, and new small businesses will need to emerge to tailer to those communities. A world owned by corporations already causes pressure on communities and small businesses, where your boss is forced into implementing oppressive working conditions to stay afloat. All the while, your next door neighbor begins trading Dogecoin and digital images to finally have a glimpse at paying off his debt or buying a home. It's an escape into a black void that consumes your soul, and the soul of society.
Ready for the collapse?
Let's see what happens.
This is meant for speculation and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
AMZN slowest growth since 2001 EPS far below analyst predictionsIf you haven`t bought this bounce:
then you should know that AMZN revenues rose 7% in the first Q of the year to $116.4bn, slowest growth in two decades!
Earnings per share (EPS) were -$7.56 vs $8.55 analyst predictions, first quarter it has posted a net loss in at least four years.
My price target is now the $2400 support, with a possible bounce by the end of the year due to the stock split enthusiasm.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Amazon (NASDAQ: $AMZN) Touches 0.5 Fib Region For 3rd Time! 3️⃣Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It sells merchandise and content purchased for resale from third-party sellers through physical and online stores. The company also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Rings, and Echo and other devices; provides Kindle Direct Publishing, an online service that allows independent authors and publishers to make their books available in the Kindle Store; and develops and produces media content. In addition, it offers programs that enable sellers to sell their products on its websites, as well as its stores; and programs that allow authors, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, skill and app developers, and others to publish and sell content. Further, the company provides compute, storage, database, analytics, machine learning, and other services, as well as fulfillment, advertising, publishing, and digital content subscriptions. Additionally, it offers Amazon Prime, a membership program, which provides free shipping of various items; access to streaming of movies and series; and other services. The company serves consumers, sellers, developers, enterprises, and content creators. Amazon.com, Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Amazon (NASDAQ: $AMZN): Best Company In The S&P 500?! 🏆Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It sells merchandise and content purchased for resale from third-party sellers through physical and online stores. The company also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Rings, and Echo and other devices; provides Kindle Direct Publishing, an online service that allows independent authors and publishers to make their books available in the Kindle Store; and develops and produces media content. In addition, it offers programs that enable sellers to sell their products on its websites, as well as its stores; and programs that allow authors, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, skill and app developers, and others to publish and sell content. Further, the company provides compute, storage, database, analytics, machine learning, and other services, as well as fulfillment, advertising, publishing, and digital content subscriptions. Additionally, it offers Amazon Prime, a membership program, which provides free shipping of various items; access to streaming of movies and series; and other services. The company serves consumers, sellers, developers, enterprises, and content creators. Amazon.com, Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.