AMZN is at 200 emaAugust 13, 2021
Amazon is undeniably massive company. a favorite of fund managers to be always in their portfolio.
Looking at the current chart, both investor and trader can benefit from it.
For traders, at the current price, it is near 200ema which is an area of value to consider. a 14.29%
discount from 3,774.81 price. A Stop Loss at 2,920 is 1.5ATR away from 3,021 support
For investors, this level, or current price is an opportunity to accumulate.
Amazon
Amazon Bullish ConsolidationAmazon has been consolidating for a great period of time indicating that a big move may occur. Using the 4hour time frame, we can preemptively dictate that we may see a move towards the upside. Selling momentum has been reducing while the VPCI has had a buy signal as seen by the crossover. Not only have we seen a buy indication from the VPCI on the 4h but also the 1day time frame. Greater confirmation for this play would be to watch the daily time frame for reducing momentum. I think a target to 3560 is great since that is the monthly resistance but it is best to only sell when given a sell signal.
Bullish Signals
-Squeeze indicator
-VPCI crossover(4h and 1day)
-Oversold Willy oscillator
Price Target
-3,560
AMAZON Potential Bullish ReversalAmazon saw a sharp sell-off last week after its earnings report. Despite AWS and its ads business seeing incredible growth, the growth in their e-commerce core business seems to be slowing down. For this reason, the stock fell more than 8% on Friday. This is very surprising to me as I expected the market to have priced in this scenario. After all, as the economy opens up, people will want to go out and spend money on other activities rather than buying stuff on Amazon during the lockdown.
Nevertheless, the price is testing the support level of the channel trend right now. Keep a close eye on the two support levels indicated in red. As long as we hold these support levels there's a good chance a bullish reversal will play out. On the other hand, if we break these support levels, expect more downside.
AMAZON:FULL FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS|SHORT SETUP SCENARIO 🔔Amazon's stock price fell almost 8% on July 30 after the company released its second-quarter earnings report. The company's revenue growth did not meet analysts' expectations, and the company reported a lower-than-expected earnings outlook for the third quarter.
Amazon's fall weighed on other e-commerce and cloud stocks, as the company is considered an indicator of both markets. Many Wall Street analysts have also quickly decreased their price targets on the company's stock, citing difficult upcoming market comparisons in the wake of the pandemic. Let's take a look at the major conversations surrounding Amazon, find out who has the upper hand, the bulls or the bears, and whether the company is still a worthy investment.
Amazon's revenues increased 27% year over year in the quarter to $113.1 billion, but they fell short of Wall Street's average forecast by nearly $2 billion. The company anticipates its revenue to rise only 10%-16% year over year in the next quarter, while analysts were expecting 24% growth.
Amazon attributes the slowdown to difficult comparisons with the pace of online shopping growth caused by the pandemic a year ago. During a conference call, Amazon Chief Financial Officer Brian Olsavsky said that since last May, revenue growth "jumped to 35% to 45% and stayed at that level until the first quarter of this year, when growth was 41%." But starting in the second quarter, Amazon "began to slow down during a period of strong sales last year, and the rate of revenue growth for the year has declined."
Olsavsky foresees the slowdown to continue as "vaccines are becoming more available in many countries and people are getting out of their homes." He also noted that Amazon's average spending per Prime member "is down from the spending seen during the peak of the pandemic."
Amazon's accelerated growth during the pandemic and its subsequent slowdown make it difficult to estimate the company's near-term growth. So instead of focusing on hard year-over-year comparisons over the next few quarters, Olsavsky advised investors to look at the two-year annualized growth rate.
Olsavsky noted that before the pandemic, Amazon's earnings were up 21% for two years. But after smoothing out the volatility associated with the pandemic, Olsavsky still expects Amazon's two-year annual growth rate to be 25%-30%, indicating that its core businesses are still strong.
Amazon's long-term growth seems stable, but the main drivers of growth are changing. In the e-commerce segment, third-party sellers accounted for 56% of total paid units in the second quarter -- up from 53% a year ago -- and they continue to bring significantly higher sales growth than primary sellers.
This change is troubling because Amazon has already faced quality control problems in its third-party marketplace and persistent complaints about counterfeit products from overseas sellers.
Amazon's second-quarter revenue growth would have been even slower without the help of Amazon Web Services (AWS), the world's largest cloud infrastructure platform, and its advertising business.
AWS revenues rose 37% year over year to $14.8 billion, which is 13% of Amazon's total revenues, and its operating income rose 25% to $4.2 billion, which is 54% of Amazon's total operating income. Revenue from the "other" segment - which mostly consists of advertising revenue - rose 87% year over year to $7.9 billion, or 7% of Amazon's total revenue.
If you exclude AWS and the "other" segment from both periods, Amazon's second-quarter revenue would have grown only 22% year over year. Going even further and excluding all third-party vendor services, the company's revenue would have grown only 17% year over year.
Andy Jassy became new CEO in early July, but he has yet to provide a clear plan for the company's growth. Jassy previously led AWS, so Amazon's main profit driver - which subsidizes the growth of its low-margin retail business - is clearly in good hands.
Amazon's retail business, however, still faces serious challenges. Supermarkets like Walmart and Target have gotten better at matching Amazon's pricing and delivery capabilities, reliance on third-party sellers remains a double-edged sword, and the company is under pressure to raise wages and improve warehouse conditions. Shopify remains a major threat as it effects independent sellers to set up their online stores, and niche marketplaces like Etsy are pulling away shoppers who want more unique gifts.
Amazon also needs to expand aggressively overseas to drive new growth and reduce its reliance on an oversaturated U.S. market - but it is struggling to draw customers away from entrenched regional leaders such as MercadoLibre in Latin America and Sea Limited's Shopee in Southeast Asia.
Jassy may have to address these problems over the next few quarters to assure investors that Amazon is not losing its edge in the burgeoning e-commerce market.
Breakin Ranges on AMZN, can we expect a repetition?Today, we will speak about the current situation on AMZN
- The price has been trading inside a range from September 2020 until July 2021 where we observed a Breakout.
-Currently, we can see that the price re-entered the broken range. What can we expect from here?
KEY IDEAS:
-From a technical perspective, it's extremely common that after daily breakouts (structures with a duration higher than 100 days), we observe a throwback (or a retest). As you can see on the previous range, we saw the same sequence.
-It's commonly accepted that the target of broken ranges is at least the size of it on the broken direction (we can see some notes of this idea on Wykoff Theory). That is the minimum target that we should expect.
With all that clear, let's go to the interesting thing, what is our view on this?
IF the price breaks the descending trendline of the current throwback and reaches our green activation line, we will take that as a confirmation of the bullish movement towards the minimum target, of course. At those levels, you should be protecting your capital by moving your stop loss to the entry-level (that is what we do). From there, we want to let the price keep going up towards the final target at 4700
Let's speak about the stop loss and risk:
-IF the entry is executed, we always set our stop loss below the throwback, and we use a risk between 1% to 2%, never more.
-IF the entry is never executed and the price keeps falling, and we lose acceptable risk-reward ratios, we will cancel this idea.
-IF everything goes as expected, we think this movement can last 150 to 200 days
Thanks for reading!
$BABA Earnings week and Chinese volatility (Fibonacci edition)Hello my children of the night!!!
I dunno, just trying stuff out. Anyway, moving on...
$AMZON missed earnings and tanked last week. I'm betting $BABA will do the same this Tuesday, especially given the uncertainty around Chinese stocks and regulation.
I used trend-based Fib retracement and extensions to guide my projection, and of course, my patented "Marijuana Cloud" method foreshadows the pre-ER run up, followed by the post-ER dump.
What do you think? Kiss 200 before dump to 180?
Let me know in the comments below, my children of the night!
Still weird? Okay. Sorry. Just wanted to make sure.
Bye.
Weekly Watchlist! 8/2 - 8/6Here are the stocks we are watching for this week!
NASDAQ:AMZN
Looking for a relief bounce on AMZN here off of trend resistance, watching for a break of $3370
NASDAQ:AMAT
Nice accumulation forming here on AMAT under resistance, looking primed for a test of all time highs soon. On this we are looking for a a break of the $142 level
NYSE:CAT
Nice hammer candle right off the 200sma. Sentiment into this week should be good with the expected passing of the Infrastructure bill. Looking for a move over $209
NYSE:KSS
Picture perfect falling wedge forming here on KSS, expect some more bullish moves as the economy opens up further and heading into the holiday months ahead. Looking for a move over $52
NASDAQ:TSLA
Great break and hold of trend resistance last week. Will look for continuation with a break of the $700 level
AMZN 50 Fib Hold Or Fold?Looking at AMZN the last time it was at its low-end support, using that as an anchor then plotting out the fibs actually revealed some pretty clear levels. Mainly this 50 fib line has remained a "high traffic" pivot for the stock this year. Even with Friday's gap down, AMZN stock briefly broke below it but held RIGHT at it by the closing bell. Also on the 1 hr, 30 min, and 15 min timeframes, the final candle was a dragonfly doji. Will it hold true to its usual bullish continuation definition or more pullback still in store?
COVID and reopening will likely be supporting "cast members" to determine where the follow-through comes from. Delta cases continue picking up but at the same time, AMZN is somewhat of a hybrid both as a reopening play and a lockdown survivor.
More: Top Reopening Penny Stocks to Buy in August 2021? 3 to Watch
Why AMZN Stock Price Drop w/ better than estimated result?1/8/21AMAZON stock price may be forming a expanding flat pattern ABC (Cyan/light blue) wave .. where price could reach at around 2688 an about 19.22% drop from current level of 3327.59 .. 2688 is the 1) Next Demand Zone 2) Long Term up trend line support area.
Amazon (AMZN) Analysis "Long-Term"Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN
This profitable beast has been on fire for YEARS. Will the business be around in 5+ years? Absolutely. Amazon will continue to dominate.
Shares took a hit after an earning disappointment (Don't let the COVID new cloud your thinking) and also they were also hit by a record $887M EU Privacy fine.
The stock isn't going to "Tank" - as you can visually see, it's falling back into the range it's been in for the last 365 days.
Shorting the stock would be a gamble (Long-term). Technically speaking there hasn't even been a lower high created - It's coming fresh off recent highs.
It's range has been between: $3,000.00 and $3,600.00 (Some action happens around $3,400.00)
The move here would be to play the range with a long-term mindset; which can be hedged with options. Seek buying opportunities while watching if that lower high forms. The $3,000.00 area line up with the 23%; which would be the next play. Further down there's major confluence on the 50% retracement ($2,600.00) with certain indicators lining up along with price action. A move that far down would be insane; but anything can happen.
Strong buying areas are between: $2,800.00 - $3,000.00 (Previous Range)
DCA Investment into the $2,600.00 Area (50.00% Retracement)
FAANG Stocks: Ready To FALL? Hidden Fibonacci Pattern FormingTraders, FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) share basket is forming a hidden pattern which can push these stocks down. However there are certain conditions that we must have. In this top down analysis we see how Fibonacci Confluence Pattern (FCP Pattern) is forming a zone which can create a massive trade opportunity.
If you are invested in any of these stocks then you must watch it so that you are aware of this. Also if you are looking for short opportunity because you think markets are over extended, then also you must be aware of this.
I also posted a similar pattern which is appearing on Netflix. Find that in the related ideas below.
Rules:
1. Never trade too much
2. Never trade without a confirmation
3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too
✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums.
✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis
✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions.
Take care and trade well
-Vik
____________________________________________________
📌 DISCLAIMER
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
____________________________________________________
Amazon (also) Appears to be in Wycoffian DistributionThe main chart has the Wycoffian distribution spelled out and if you want to check it against the criterion you can follow the link below, hit ctrl-f and search for "Distribution: Wyckoff Events" and you will be right there. Not everything is annotated, the chart would be way too cluttered.
school.stockcharts.com
www.ltg-trading.com
As it stands I am still waiting for my entry to buy some OTM puts( I do have some SPXU and SQQQ calls that are going well but I don't feel the stress is worth it). Very often when the price breaks through the ice there is a low volume rally to the ice, or at the lower end of the ice range and that gives you the best chance for an entry into an impulsive move. In other words almost any continuation pattern around the ice should have a high probability of breaking down bearishly and any bearish patterns (like rising wedges) are definitely bearish.
On the weekly chart we clearly see that the price action has been rangebound almost straight sideways but the On Balance Volume itself and the EMAS have been trending downward with the 20EMA bearishly over the 10. What remains to be seen is if the 100 OBV EMA will hold the OBV or the 10 and 20 OBV EMAs. If the obv EMAs stack fully bearishly then the price will look like a cat swiped it off the table. We can also see that the MACD has a lot of bearish divergence as well as the MACD histogram. The MTF VSTOP reinforces the trend as being bearish by providing resistance that is automatically and dynamically drawn, so I can't mess it up.
The monthly chart below confirms that the ice isn't some random price action I observed, it was the long term VSTOP support. Back testing the chart shows that when the MTF VSTOP gets broken on the monthly we can expect some wicking below the 20 period SMA. Likewise, when the MACD crosses the signal line bearishly or goes red the 20 period SMA is a good place to accumulate. Even in late 2014 when we closed a monthly candle below the 20 we were fine. I have not shown the OBV in the chart below because it does not have any serious signals except the OBV has been trading around the 10 EMA.
Some Macro stuff
The only way we go much below the 20 period SMA is if we have a the NASDAQ bubble completely pop or a financial crisis like 2008. That scenario is certainly on the table given how horrific the news cycle appears to be and if international trade slows and the news picks up about supply chain problems Amazon is going to be hit particularly hard. Then we start looking for a long term value buy at the monthly bollinger band which is conveniently right around the ascending triangle. It is also rather convenient that the price is distributing right above the target of the ascending triangle. Pure support and resistance traders would be looking for the top of the triangle to be tested as support anyway. Debt is also getting expensive and so there is less easy money for firms and with inflation picking up there should be less items consumed at a higher price, which means less orders from Amazon
Please have a look at my Wycoff chart on the NASDAQ Futures if the subject interest you.