Amazonshort
AMZN working hard or hardly working?AMZN has proven itself to has bullish features, but is that momentum slowing down? MA's indicate so, for now, momentum can be seen to be slower than the normal rapid bullish movements that are seen. This momentum will resume once MA's decide on a direction whether it be upwards and continuation of this very weak upward trend or breakdown to begin a new respectable move upward. I would either go long on this or short it.
Why amazon jumped ?!Christmas is over, Kwanzaa is just beginning, Hanukkah is just past its midpoint, and retailers are beginning to take stock of their performance during the holiday season. So far, one of the big takeaways this year is that consumers rushed to e-commerce sites to lock down early and last-minute gifts.
Between Nov. 1 and Christmas Eve, U.S. retail sales climbed 3.4% year over year, according to newly released data compiled by Mastercard (NYSE: MA) SpendingPulse. A breakdown shows that online shopping generated the majority of those gains, as e-commerce sales soared 18.8% during the period, compared to a 1.2% increase at brick-and-mortar stores, according to the report. Digital sales accounted for 14.6% of the total retail sales (a new all-time high).
One of the biggest beneficiaries of that trend was no doubt Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), and its stock is up more than 4% on the news that shoppers flocked to its platform in record numbers this holiday season.
Can AMZN price go down to $570?Hi traders / investors,
We are talking about the stocks market. There are patterns, noise and randomness of course. US stocks market has a bullish bias. However, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. We are talking about a game of probabilities and even 1% probability should be considered seriously. So let's have a look at AMZN chart here.
As we all know, AMZN price declined all the way down to $1307 on December 2018. $1307 is now a strong support. Meanwhile, it's a crucial zone for investors. If we see a drop below $1307, we can most likely see a decline all the way down to $507. I know it sounds like a conspiracy theory. But do you think there's 0% probability? This is not math but statistics. So there's no certainty but probability.
Technical Analysis
When we are talking about the technical analysis, what we are really doing is to analyse the past performance of the underlying. This gives us a clue what can happen in the future. There are tons of other factors like news, time, performance, momentum, fear, greed and etc. However, let's just have a look at the chart. As a technical trader, i only look at the charts. To me, news are in the charts. On 4th September 2018, Amazon reached ATH (all time high). 11th July 2019 is the confirmation of a range. Now AMZN is in the range. If you look closely, you can see an ascending and a descending trend lines. We call it triangle. They meet somewhere in the future. In this case, they meet in 2030. Wow, it is a wide range. What we all know is, AMZN price more than likely to test both ascending and descending trend lines. But we can not say when (can we?). As we know the range, why don't we just trade it? If the price goes above the descending trend line, we can short sell the stock (or buy some put options) and if it goes below the ascending trend line, we can long buy (or buy some call options). But in this particular case, if $1307 is broken, i would wait a little bit more. I will think that something is going wrong here.
Conclusion
I'm not saying that we are going down there. However, in case $1307 is broken, more than likely, AMZN to reach $570 level.
Disclaimer: I'm not a professional trader or financial advisor. This is not financial advice.
Trade safe,
Atilla
AMAZON - MARKET PSYCHOLOGY - BITCOIN 2017 RESEMBLANCE - CM101AMAZON - NASDAQ
This relates as much to crypto as it does to stocks. Why? Because all follow similar (some may say the 'same') trajectory as it's as if it's run on same simulations by same individuals.
Just look at Bitcoin 'bubble' 2017 - 2018. See any resemblance to Amazon and to be frank the whole stock, bond market? Looks awfully similar to me especially with mixed media reports lately. Did you notice how we had a week a everyone being super bullish on stocks and then suddenly we switched into mass bear predictions followed by balancing of bull, bear news? Why is that? Simple! When a person is confused or unsure on what he or she should do with their holding, what are they most likely to do? They are most likely to make a huge mistake, which is exactly what we have in front of us today!
I might be early, but I'm not wrong!
Perhaps This Will Be A Monday To Remember (Amazon Short)Posting this AMZN short setup in advance of the market open for Monday August 26th 2019. We already have a red futures - this almost always indicates an initial selloff. Sometimes the market bounces back after this initial selloff, but so many equities are in such precarious technical positions that they may not be able to withstand the selling volume from traders who will be looking to reduce risk at this point. I am of the opinion that it's really time for stock holders (particularly in those shares that have increased astronomically in the last few years) to take some substantial profit off the table.
Since my first AMZN chart in January, the double-top scenario played out pretty perfectly. Confirmation will occur if the low from the first rejection is breached. As you can see in the lefthand chart, Amazon already broke the logarithmic trend and tested it as resistance (orange). This tells us that growth for company shares is at least slowing down. The price has not experienced a true correction yet though. I think it's very possible that the bear market for many stocks begins tomorrow. On the righthand chart, you can see that on the linear chart, AMZN is just barely supported by an important rising trendline (light blue). A break below it would indicate to traders that the top may indeed be in, but first I think price will need to retest the low 1500 area. If that breaks (red X), the top will likely be confirmed, and the parabolic nature of the gains from the last few years will become obvious. I think it's very possible to see an erasure of all the gains since Trump's election in 2016. This means AMZN shares could decline all the way back to $288. Of course I'm getting ahead of myself here. We have to see if the supports outlined in pink hold first, as there are multiple levels to where Amazon can fall. We really have to see how the market, Trump, the media, and general public react to a selloff.
I think we could be in for a pretty red Monday if sentiment can't turn around tonight and these technical supports are broken. The setup would be to short the breakdown and potential retest of this light blue trendline and target (initially) the 1500 zone. If that breaks, the other potential supports are shown in pink.
A note about risk/reward: There is still some potential upside in stocks, but that possibility seems to be diminishing by the day. As outlined in my DJI fractal analysis, the stock market had a final "mania" phase before the Great Depression. I would honestly prefer if this did not happen to that extent in this cycle, as the fallout from that would likely be far worse. I'd prefer the market to drop now. It would appear much healthier, although I still think it could be substantially worse than 2008, based on the parabolic nature of the recent growth. In a way, it's been like a "mini-mania." Anyway, people who buy stocks at current prices are betting on what they think would likely be the final hurrah (if there is one). Due to this, most people don't expect more than one more rally for stocks before a deep correction. This is based on all the conversations I've had with investors, family members, and friends. Logically, if most people don't expect more than one rally, the risk/reward favors people who sell at current prices, because once the top is reached, prices will ultimately end up below where they are now (even if the top is substantially higher), since most people will be aiming to get out at that point. This is what causes a "blow off" phase.
Anyway, this was longer than I meant it to be. Other stock analyses are listed at bottom, along with my Great Depression fractal. This is not financial advice! Shorting the market has been very risky, since people have been trying very hard to support current prices. If one were trading this, risk management is key. Please consult a professional financial advisor (which I am not). As always, analysis is about weighing possibilities. It's not about getting it right 100% of the time, but about understanding how the herd behaves based on visual cues given to them as trends on a chart.
Good luck out there! It's pretty nuts.
-Victor Cobra
$AMZN Short Paying Off Losing SupportAMZN In my previous post (linked) I noted a good potential spot to go short AMZN, and did so through put options. That is paying off now, up well over 100% already on options, and if this loss of support holds/deepens, could potentially be very profitable with plenty of time left to expiration. Hope you rode with, but if not, I might look to see if this support loss holds, or see if it retraces back up to lost support before entering. Happy hunting, and GLTA!!
$AMZN Flirting With Disaster or Prepping For Run??AMZN Currently testing resistance of what I believe to be a bear flag consolidation pattern. This is a great place to get short if you want to risk a little capital, due to the ability to cut out with a small loss if it breaks above this resistance, so stop loss at 1836. If it does not break though, you get the reward of the entire move downward, which could very well be around 1585 without breaking a sweat. In this scenario, risk/reward ratio using these targets and stops allow for an 18:1 ratio. On the flip side, if it does break upward, it would run into a convergence of a couple resistance trend lines around the 1790's area. Close above 1835 would indicate that scenario. What I'm looking at is the fact that Amazon lost its daily 125 moving average support. In the past when AMZN loses the 125, but bounces around it, up and down, it generally recovers it within a few weeks and goes on an extended run. However, when it loses the 125 and CANNOT reclaim it, then there has generally been multiple rejections followed by a "bear market" scenario for Amazon, as shown in the end of 2018. I am currently going short AMZN through Aug 30th P1640 at .70. Just one single contract is plenty with Amazon, because that 70 dollar bet can easily turn into well over 1,000 dollars if the price action acts as I suspect it may. Either way, as a technical trader I will follow the trail of the price action and act accordingly. My plans are usually laid out for at least 2 scenarios, as I believe any good trader should do. Get caught with your foot stuck on the gas pedal either way and you're headed for disaster. Anyway, happy hunting and GLTA!!