HODL!!!!!We did a gap up and tested new highs.
The scalping bots and other algorithm traders have taken profits.
I believe this is a good entry point. More and more shares are being traded on
Dark pools and we have confirmation of a deficit of actual shares.
There is no telling when this will go down, but the automated renormalization of actual shares will be legendary.
Remember that as retail investors, we have very little means of competing with trading algorithms that do microtransactions at fraction of a second. This is quite literally a once in a lifetime opportunity because this scenario is of 4-sigma variation. An event of biblical proportions. If we can pressure the SEC to do their job and fix the over leveraged market to finally favor retail. It will speak volumes on the so called democracy that the USA was built on. We need to restore the trust in the dollar which was rooted on "GOD".
Regardless of the theo-philosophic school you subscribe to. Somewhere along the timeline, we lost track of those founding principles and instead traded them for a radically sense of nationalism.
AMC
Hang in there people, its all going to planShiba still following previous pattern very closely. RSI and MACD are even a little lower than they were in the previous rally, which means there is could be more room to grow. Volume still higher and AMC theatre is still talking about accepting Shiba as payment. Like the kids say, Diamond Hands.
Crucial SPY test ,MEME counter argument The Fed..
Scholars running the show are now, after denying the fact that the Evergrande mess was contained, are now admitting that the ramifications could spill into the U.S. Economy.
The Fed..
Also sent out a WARNING that the act of holding a meme stock threatens the stability of the U.S. Financial system.
I would like to point out that holding meme stocks isn't the actual problem. Though I am very biased on this, as I am, and have been accumulating AMC for about a year now, the issue is what has happened to make "MEME" stocks an issue along with why it's being called a "MEME" stock.
In my early 20's I worked as a crane rat, learning everything from mechanical to electrical engineering along with ladder logic programming, how to diagnose an issue with a piece of machinery crucial to any random company that needed one repaired on the fly.
If it was a mechanical problem, MOST times it was an easy fix. However when it was an electrical problem there was a lot of wire chasing looking for a short , an issue with software, a bad high or low voltage coil. If it was a fuse, what made the fuse , or circuit pop? Was it a short, or was there a mechanical problem like a bad bearing that led to an overdraw of current that popped or blew the circuit?
In the event that it was certainly a mechanical issue it was fixed by replacing a bearing or what not.
Let's look at the accusation of holding a "MEME" stock as a disruptor in our beautiful financial system.
Let's compare our Financial system as an electrical circuit , which it basically is. You work, you get paid, you spend, money goes back to the manufacturer and you get paid again. The more efficiently you spend your money, you develop a savings and invest in a stock that seems to be doing really well, in the hopes you can increase your nest egg.
When the circuit is broken the fuse blows and the system goes down, not just because of a mechanical issue but it could also be a software issue.
Let's look at the mechanics of the financial system as well.
(1) From Investopedia, "Individual and institutional investors come together on stock exchanges to buy and sell shares in a public venue. Share prices are set by supply and demand as buyers and sellers place orders. Order flow and bid-ask spreads are often maintained by specialists or market makers to ensure an orderly and fair market."
Seems legit right? Everyone is happy, everything works, and best of all its cyclical . I absolutely love this system! It is FLAWLESS! It works, the machine is in tip top order, clean and ready to rock.
It's only when one of the 3 main and/or 6 sub parts of this machine goes bad that we find issues in the circuitry, mechanical and software end of it, and it fails.
These 3 main and 6 sub parts are as listed in the quote above from Investopedia:
1.)The Electrical;
I.) Individual
II.) Institutional Investor
2.)The Mechanical;
III.) The buyer
IV.) The seller
3.)The Software;
V.) The Specialist
VI.) The Market-Maker
Let's test my in the field diagnosis of this machine:
1.) Looks like the Electrical is working just fine. Stocks have been bought and sold by both investors and institutional investors on a day to day, month to month and year to year basis. Heck I even know a guy who has held Microsoft for 35 years. He keeps reminding me how it "IPO'd at 21 bucks a share". Seems legit to me, This is how it's supposed to work.
(2) From the "Wall Street and the Stock Exchanges: Historical Resources web page:
" Stock exchanges have a long history in the United States. In 1790, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, originally named the Board of Brokers of Philadelphia, was founded. Two years later saw another big competitor—the New York Stock Exchange."
If "1" is working, let's check the mechanical end of this machine: The buyer and seller
III.) Looks like the BUYER end of this machine is working. I can certainly see it's been heavily used and may have had some problems along the way, which I can certainly hope have been repaired. {Robinhood} . Further diagnosis is needed. In this case I would write a note to myself and carry on with the diagnosis.
IV.) The seller. This looks pretty good, minor wear to it, but it is functioning as intended. Certainly not as bad as the "BUYER" end of it.
the Electrical end of this machine has had some problems, a note has been added but overall still seems to be functioning correctly.
This puts me at my third stage of diagnosis. If the electrical and the mechanical aspect of this machine are working, and I haven't overlooked anything, the problem must be in the software.
Let's analyze first the directions of in which the market is supposed to work:
From the instruction manual :
(1) "Individual and institutional investors come together on stock exchanges to buy and sell shares in a public venue. Share prices are set by supply and demand as buyers and sellers place orders. Order flow and bid-ask spreads are often maintained by specialists or market makers to ensure an orderly and fair market." ~ Investopedia
Well, would you look at that!?!? Seems We found the glitch in the machine.
"Order flow and bid-ask spreads are often maintained by specialists or market makers to ensure an orderly and fair market." AND
"Order flow and bid-ask spreads are often maintained by specialists or market makers to ensure an orderly and fair market."
Seems we found the issue, it also seems why we may have found why the "Buyer" showed some defectiveness as well.
This is why no one singular person or anybody should feel singled out for ruining a perfectly working machine. It is when "Special instructions" are issued to a machine without the engineers approval that the warranty is void.
The repair is very very simple. As a field tech, I would simply allow the machine to fail, remove the software and build upon the roots that established it as a working machine.
Let's start with a buy is a buy. what does this mean? This means no dark pools. Not for you, me or God. A lit exchange is necessary to have an open and fair market. A buy is a buy and a sell is a sell . There isn't a loop hole in that. what it does bring to light is a buyer beware and ensure stop losses are set.
T1 settlement. My electric company has the ability to shut my power off remotely, we have high tech machines that do transactions at light speed, but it takes 3 days to transfer money from one place to another? come on, this i T# and T2 settlement shit is rubbish.
Abolish PFOF. This actually should be placed at the top of the list. With todays applications on the Cellular networks, there is absolutely no reason PFOF should exist! Want free trades? Deal with this advertisement first. Or subscribe to our non advertisement plan for blah blah blah a month.
a system much like Bitcoin or Ethereum, where every transaction can be placed recorded and viewed publicly. Which is tied hand in hand with the anti-dark pool update.
Here is your machine from the 1790's working as intended, more efficient and more transparent. When something goes wrong you know exactly where the error occurred.
I am thinking of doing a Yellen , Pelosi essay next. It will be titled Cybernetic Untrustworthy Network Tyrants as soon as I finish some well deserved solitude from the markets and my working life.
Credits :
(1) Investopedia.com "How does the Stock Market work"
(2) Https:guides.loc.gov "Wall Street and the Stock Exchanges: Historical Resources
(1)
EDU BuyI'm looking at a potential buy on FOLD with the potential for a nice gain. This is following my strategy requirements and it is also showing us some hidden bullish divergence also. This is just my opinion and idea for a stock, and this is not financial advice. Let me know what you think and let's see what happens with the trade tomorrow.
Every Traders and Analysts should know their Limitations!In this article, I would like to review some of my best trades in the past 2 months!
My goal is to talk about earnings and how unpredictable their outcome could be.
In the past few months, I have tried to find reliable methods to predict the price movement after the earnings!
Unfortunately, I did not find any reliable and fairly accurate method so far!
Having said that, I prefer to stay out of trades before earnings to manage the risk of exposure to big gaps!
I do this because I know it is in my favor in the long term!
For example, I opened a perfect entry at 125.5 for Qualcomm, and closed with a +7.66% gain before the earning! It popped with +12% after earnings!
Should I regret it?
My answer is NO, I am actually very proud of this trade, although I missed the bigger chunk of profits in this trade, my decision was right in Palantir and AMC case!
PLTR: trade closed with +10% in 21 days
AMC: trade closed with +26% in 4 days
Also, I prevent a catastrophe in PYPL: closing with a -2.16% loss.
But why should I be proud of my trade?
I think any trader needs to define his rules and follow the rules!
In the long term, those who do not follow their rules will have the same result, most of them will fail..!
How did I decide to not hold my positions during earning calls?
I apply one of the game theory rules!
Minimax
In game theory, minimax is a decision rule used to minimize the worst-case potential loss; in other words, a player considers all of the best opponent responses to his strategies and selects the strategy such that the opponent's best strategy gives a payoff as large as possible.
The name "minimax" comes from minimizing the loss involved when the opponent selects the strategy that gives maximum loss and is useful in analyzing the first player's decisions both when the players move sequentially and when the players move simultaneously. In the latter case, minimax may give a Nash equilibrium of the game if some additional conditions hold.
Minimax is also useful in combinatorial games, in which every position is assigned a payoff. The simplest example is assigning a "1" to a winning position and "-1" to a losing one, but as this is difficult to calculate for all but the simplest games, intermediate evaluations (specifically chosen for the game in question) are generally necessary. In this context, the goal of the first player is to maximize the evaluation of the position, and the goal of the second player is to minimize the evaluation of the position, so the minimax rule applies. This, in essence, is how computers approach games like chess and Go, though various computational improvements are possible to the "naive" implementation of minimax. (Brilliant)
Minimax has many applications:
In game theory or decision making, a tactic in which individuals attempt either to minimize their own maximum losses or to reduce the most an opponent will gain. For example, a health researcher may propose an intervention that would be the least aversive treatment for a serious disease, thereby minimizing the adverse effects patients may expect to experience as a result of the disease.
I can apply what I learned in med school to the market!
When should you use Minimax in trading?
The answer is simple:
Always..!
Actually, Minimax is the mathematical reason behind using stop loss!
I think I do not need to talk about the importance of stop-loss, I just want to mention WD Gann quote about stop loss:
"Stop loss orders are a trader's best friend."
Price Gap:
Generally speaking, stock prices experience a price gap after earnings! makes it very hard to execute your stop loss without slippage if you are on the wrong side of the trade! this slippage could harm your overall performance in long term as a trader!
Decision-making in the presence of uncertainty.
Minimax, as the name suggests, is a method in decision theory for minimizing the maximum loss. Alternatively, it can be thought of as maximizing the minimum gain, which is also known as Maximin.
It all started from a two-player zero-sum game theory, covering both the cases where players take alternate moves and those where they made simultaneous moves. It has also been extended to more complex games and to general decision-making in the presence of uncertainty.
Stock Market is a Non-zero-sum game, While options are a zero-sum game!
To wrap it up, you should use minimax when your opponent is very sophisticated and its activities are very unpredictable!
No need to say that market is very sophisticated and unpredictable!
"Why do you think the same five guys make it to the final table of the World Series of Poker EVERY YEAR? What, are they the luckiest guys in Las Vegas?"
-Mike McDermot, 'Rounders'.
Reference articles:
brilliant.org
dictionary.apa.org
uh.edu
becominghuman.ai
AR BuyLooking at a day trade position on AR, it's following my strategy entry requirements. This has very nice potential, I would however wait for solid entry confirmation. I'm waiting for the price to provide me confluence in the form of a bounce off the support with a candlestick pattern to follow it up. Ideally, id like the price to bounce off the support with a bullish engulfing pattern to support the move but it looks very solid even without those things. Price is also exhibiting some normal bullish divergence which adds to our list of confluences. This is just my opinion and idea for a stock, and this is not financial advice. Let me know what you think and let's see what happens with the trade.
Different PerspectivesThere are many bullish patterns and formations that can be found, wether cyclical, whyckoff, bullflag and more. All you have to do is look at the other posts, one different pattern that's hard to unsee right now, when you zoom out is a nice W pattern. W for Winning because AMC is a winning bet; today's earning announcement was crazy bullish. The companie's holding 1.8B in cash, they've opened more locations in good locations, debts are going down month by month, 73% increase in revenue compared to last quarter, consideration of starting a AMC production studio, popcorn business, crypto/NFT projects, (and more..) I honestly don't buy the shorting argument anymore, fundamentals are great. Really good stuff, Adam Aaron is doing phenominal. Mix the bullish fundamentals with the technicals (high SI% (MINIMUM 16-20%) , LOTS of shares on loan, heavy insitutional ownership (~28-30%) and at least 81% retail holding) and you're cooking yourself a buttery popcorn with extra salty shorts.
I am BULLISH! 🍿🦧💎👐📈🚀🌕
(Not Financial Advice, only my personal opinion)
$AMC WILL RETEST ATH SOON! $AMC Every time the 20 and 50 Moving Averages cross on the daily chart AMC has created new ATHs.. After the break of $72 $AMC melted and bounced back to form a George W Pattern on the Daily. Get ready to see a break of the GW neck line around $52 then a retest of $72!!
See you at the LAMBO dealership APES!!
Classic Cup & HandleA cup and handle is a technical chart pattern that resembles a cup and handle where the cup is in the shape of a "u" and the handle has a slight downward drift.
A cup and handle are considered a bullish signal extending an uptrend and is used to spot opportunities to go long.
Technical traders using this indicator should place a stop buy order slightly above the upper trendline of the handle part of the pattern.
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Reference Article:
www.investopedia.com
AMC wyckoff distribution schematic + Elliot wave count Based on theory this should happen, now i do not a crystal ball but i can predict that St1 or St2 would happen after automatic response (AR) from price reaching buying climax (BC). This BC would be indicative of a spike in on volume.
But there on forth, this distribution is only part of the phase of the broader accumulation, which is reaching near SOS period within the distribution schematic.
AMC TO THE MOONAMC will pop it is just a matter of time. Soon it will break out of the bullish pennant and the FOMO will kick in. When the FOMO kicks in we will see a big rally to the triple digits if it stays over 100 for 3 days the small hedgefunds will get margin called therefore they will need to cover their short position. That will push the price over 500 when the price gets so high eventually the bigger hegdefunds will have to cover which could push amc up to 5k per share or more. It would be stupid for the hedgefunds to let this play out until 2022.
$AMC Swing Trade Idea - 43 Price TargetAMC has been respecting the volume shelf support and 150EMA on the daily. I like the idea of swinging calls here for a move to the upside in near future to retest the descending triangle resistance line - $43 zone price target
For the longer term, watch for a break of the resistance line followed by confirmation to go long.
A move below the 150EMA (blue line) I'd be looking for a good short opportunity. Can also short the triangle resistance line anticipating rejection.
Chart looks like hedgies have just been having fun trading this one. Good price action for swing trading!