Get started

AMC

Random walk vs Chaos Theory at AMC Theaters!For those who follow me for the past year, it is almost crystal clear that I do not believe in Random walk theory..! However, It does not mean that I believe all market moves are predictable! The stock market is a chaotic system, and follows the chaos theorem principles! Now let's look at Chaos theory and its principles..! What is Chaos Theory? Chaos is the science of surprises, of the nonlinear and the unpredictable. It teaches us to expect the unexpected. While most traditional science deals with supposedly predictable phenomena like gravity, electricity, or chemical reactions, Chaos Theory deals with nonlinear things that are effectively impossible to predict or control, like turbulence, weather, the stock market, our brain states, and so on. These phenomena are often described by fractal mathematics, which captures the infinite complexity of nature. Many natural objects exhibit fractal properties, including landscapes, clouds, trees, organs, rivers, etc, and many of the systems in which we live exhibit complex, chaotic behavior. Recognizing the chaotic, fractal nature of our world can give us new insight, power, and wisdom. For example, by understanding the complex, chaotic dynamics of the atmosphere, a balloon pilot can “steer” a balloon to the desired location. By understanding that our ecosystems, our social systems, and our economic systems are interconnected, we can hope to avoid actions that may end up being detrimental to our long-term well-being. Don't blame me! Principles of Chaos The Butterfly Effect: This effect grants the power to cause a hurricane in China to a butterfly flapping its wings in New Mexico. It may take a very long time, but the connection is real. If the butterfly had not flapped its wings at just the right point in space/time, the hurricane would not have happened. A more rigorous way to express this is that small changes in the initial conditions lead to drastic changes in the results. Our lives are an ongoing demonstration of this principle. Who knows what the long-term effects of teaching millions of kids about chaos and fractals will be? Unpredictability: Because we can never know all the initial conditions of a complex system in sufficient (i.e. perfect) detail, we cannot hope to predict the ultimate fate of a complex system. Even slight errors in measuring the state of a system will be amplified dramatically, rendering any prediction useless. Since it is impossible to measure the effects of all the butterflies (etc) in the World, accurate long-range weather prediction will always remain impossible. Order / Disorder Chaos is not simply disordered. Chaos explores the transitions between order and disorder, which often occur in surprising ways. Mixing: Turbulence ensures that two adjacent points in a complex system will eventually end up in very different positions after some time has elapsed. Examples: Two neighboring water molecules may end up in different parts of the ocean or even in different oceans. A group of helium balloons that launch together will eventually land in drastically different places. Mixing is thorough because turbulence occurs at all scales. It is also nonlinear: fluids cannot be unmixed. Feedback: Systems often become chaotic when there is feedback present. A good example is the behavior of the stock market. As the value of a stock rises or falls, people are inclined to buy or sell that stock. This in turn further affects the price of the stock, causing it to rise or fall chaotically. Fractals: A fractal is a never-ending pattern. Fractals are infinitely complex patterns that are self-similar across different scales. They are created by repeating a simple process over and over in an ongoing feedback loop. Driven by recursion, fractals are images of dynamic systems – the pictures of Chaos. Geometrically, they exist in between our familiar dimensions. Fractal patterns are extremely familiar since nature is full of fractals. For instance: trees, rivers, coastlines, mountains, clouds, seashells, hurricanes, etc. What Is the Random Walk Theory? Random walk theory suggests that changes in stock prices have the same distribution and are independent of each other. Therefore, it assumes the past movement or trend of a stock price or market cannot be used to predict its future movement. In short, the random walk theory proclaims that stocks take a random and unpredictable path that makes all methods of predicting stock prices futile in the long run.(Investopedia) Why it is important to know the difference between Randomness and chaotic behavior? When the First 2 squeezes happened, I asked myself if there will be another squeeze in the future..! By monitoring the pattern of the behavior of the Meme Stocks and Wall Street Bets, I noticed there are connections between these moves, such as: -Most of them have relatively high short interest Then I asked myself if there is a possible time that the squeeze phenomenon has a higher chance of happening? I found this squeeze behavior has a higher chance of happening just a few weeks before the Quadruple witching phenomenon!!! Dear Prof. Malkiel, Your book A RANDOM WALK. DOWN WALL STREET is based on your observation of randomness in the markets, yet there is a transitory phase between these randomnesses that made tons of money to mathematicians like Jim Simons and Edward Thorp. Jim Simons: "Efficient market theory is correct in that there are no gross inefficiencies. But we look at anomalies that may be small in size and brief in time. We make our forecast. Then, shortly thereafter, we re-evaluate the situation and revise our forecast and our portfolio. We do this all day long. We're always in and out and out and in. So we're dependent on activity to make money." Please, Check this watchlist I published on October 29th, and see how many of these 50 stocks have moved more than 10% in the past 3 days! www.tradingview.com just a few examples: Best, Moshkelgosha Reference Articles: fractalfoundation.org www.investopedia.com
NYSE:AMCEducation
by Moshkelgosha
46
[WSB] AMC Breakout! Realistic TargetsIn this idea we are looking at the AMC price, which has been moving in a symmetrical triangle from the recent breakout (June) until now. We are looking for three confirmation-points on the resistance- & support-line. The chances for a breakout are fairly high. The breakout was confirmed by touching the previous high at $44. We are still missing some volume to finally confirm the breakout. The current positive sentiment as well as the upcoming earnings could be strong catalyst for the targets - shown in the chart. Please manage your risk accordingly. Ares
NYSE:AMCLong
by Anton_XBT
2
AMC Price ProjectionThis is what I think AMC will do. If the price returns back down to $36 then I assume we can see a repeat of the last move, with less potential this time around due to the overall price consolidation with recent price action. Realistically I'm looking to make a buy here at $36 and cash out at $44 again. Nobody can ever predict the market, this is just what I logically think will happen based on price action, if there is enough hype behind the stock and enough apes dumping money into it the price can completely reject my idea and just go back to $49 at any time it wants. This is a clown stock, and I do not recommend holding it for more than a week at a time unless you have proper risk management and a proven strategy.
NYSE:AMCLong
by KingRondo
13
AMC - Junk Co / Jumps the SharkOur initial entry into the Jungle was served a heaping helping of Ape Fecal Matters. 40.50 STO x 2 / Closed on STP @ 41.12 Our 2nd effort, however, did provide Bananas STO @ 44.00 x 5 / BTC @ 41.59 Our 3rd Effort STO 41.50 x 5 SPT 41.00 on Bracket PT 38.00 _________________________________________________________________________ The Monkeys (for the 197th Time) - "This Is It, to the Moon" _________________________________________________________________________ Citadel over-throws the Trendline and it's a New Bull Market in the Jungle. But is it? No, it is not. AMC used to trade 5 Billion shares in one Month, for Months on end. Volumes remain above normal Intra-Day, but alas... it's a declining Pool of Liquidity for the Chimps, Monkeys, Apes, and Primates. It no longer trades a Billion Shares per month. It has become a DOOR to NARROW for Chimp's escape. And yet somehow, the Primates believe it is now heading to $220. Two hundred and Twenty Dollars USD.
NYSE:AMCShort
by HK_L61
35
GME is going to Banana Planet - $1700Looks like we're seeing a shift here with the buying pressure starting to come in, We need momentum to continue if we expect us to finally break out of this Wedge/Triangle though. I've been grabbing leaps and shares every chance I get, The longer these institutions prolong this the more violent the breakout will be. RSI, MACD & STOCH are in great positions IMO, RSI came down and is starting to break back up above signaling a trend change (As long momentum continues) and then we have a nice tight MACD cross up starting here along with the STOCH showing a shift as well. Above 190$ we will see 210-220 quick, then from there I expect retail to wake up again hopefully forces Hedgies to start covering they're sold calls......Rinse and Repeat Good Luck To My Apes, And I Pray For You Shills/Boomers short on this thing. We've already won, It's just a matter of how long you will wait for your movie like ending.
NYSE:GMELong
by Captain_Cam
4
AMC MOVES FOR TOMMOROW ( BEAR CASE)For AMC we have formed the bearish rising wedge pattern, if in the chance we break out of it im expecting a retest and impulse wave to ~38$ region, if not broken then back down to the 35s support range. We are on the top of the rising wedge which is pretty bullish, the price stays up and rises higher post market hours. In the bear case, top of wedge acts as resistance and price quickly falls back down to 35s range. Do wait for a retest to see the bottom line from the wedge as resistance. STill Bull in the long run #AMC200 Like and follow for daily updates Not financial advice. LFG
NYSE:AMC
by ary2001
2