April 17, 2025 - Powell, Japan & TrumpHello everyone, it’s April 17, 2025. Yesterday’s U.S. trading was pure market carnage. Semiconductors ( NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:ASML ) were steamrolled as AI chip bans to China kicked in and Trump dropped another tariff bomb, hiking duties to 245%. That wiped $200 billion off Nvidia alone.
In Chicago, Powell stoked the flames, warning tariffs will fuel inflation and choke growth, and insisted he’s in no rush to cut rates. The CME_MINI:NQ1! tumbled 3%, the CME_MINI:SOX1! lost 4.1%, and bond futures plunged.
This morning, U.S. futures are up about 0.75% on headlines that Trump’s talks with Japanese negotiators are “going very well,” sparking rallies across Asia: Nikkei +1%, Hong Kong +2.7%, Shanghai +1%. It seems even a whiff of détente with Japan sends everyone scrambling back into risk assets.
On commodities, BLACKBULL:WTI jumps to $63.35 amid fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC output cuts; OANDA:XAUUSD rockets to $3,352 /oz; INDEX:BTCUSD hovers near $83,500.
Today watch the ECB’s rate cut, Powell’s next speech, Philly Fed and jobless claims before the Good Friday shutdown. With Trump’s erratic tariff theatrics and Powell’s warning of higher inflation and slower growth, volatility is set to reign supreme. Buckle up.
AMD
Chipmaker Stocks DeclinesChipmaker Stocks Declines
According to the charts, semiconductor stocks underperformed the broader equity market yesterday. While the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) fell by around 2.2%, the drop was far steeper across the chip sector:
→ The bullish semiconductor ETF (SOXL) declined by 15%;
→ Nvidia (NVDA) shares fell by 6.9%;
→ Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) dropped by 7.3%.
In other words, chipmaker stocks dragged down the broader market, raising concerns ahead of the upcoming earnings season.
Why Are Chip Stocks Falling?
The decline stems from corporate assessments of how the escalating global trade war and new tariffs could impact future performance.
According to media reports:
→ AMD expects to face tariffs of up to $800 million on exports to China;
→ For Nvidia, similar levies could exceed $5 billion.
Technical Analysis – Nvidia (NVDA)
The price continues to fluctuate within a downward channel, previously identified in our analysis:
The lower boundary of the channel is acting as support, helping the price close near its opening level yesterday (forming a Doji candle on the daily chart).
Technical Analysis – AMD
A similar picture is emerging on the AMD chart:
The $96 level now appears to be a key resistance zone.
In Summary
All eyes are on today’s earnings report from chipmaker TSMC (TSM), which could significantly influence the currently bearish sentiment in the sector.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AMD to Retest SupportAMD has been in a descending price channel since November of 2024 with clear support and resistance established. On Monday we saw an attempt to breakout however it was rejected at the establish resistance line. Given the rejection and the significant drop that followed I think we will likely see AMD drop to slightly below $80 in the short term and retest the established support line.
AMD Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-16NASDAQ:AMD AMD Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-16)
Below is a synthesis of all the reports and our analysis:
─────────────────────────────
COMPREHENSIVE SUMMARY OF EACH MODEL’S KEY POINTS
─────────────────────────────
• Grok/xAI Report
– Technical indicators show AMD trading below its short‐term moving average and near the lower Bollinger Band.
– Negative MACD histogram and bearish news (export restrictions, potential $800M charge) support a downward bias.
– Recommends a bearish options trade using a near–ATM put – the $89 put at a premium around $1.78 (a higher premium but with a clear bearish thesis).
• Llama/Meta and DeepSeek Reports
– Confirm the bearish bias: price action below key moving averages, negative MACD and extreme moves below support.
– Note that the option chain (and high open interest on lower strikes) points to a greater probability for further decline.
– Both suggest a trade on put options that have a lower premium than the Grok suggestion (with DeepSeek favoring the $85 put at roughly $0.62) for improved risk/reward.
• Gemini/Google Report
– Emphasizes the strong negative catalyst from news and a rapid breakdown below support levels (with current price near $89).
– Technical indicators and volatility (VIX above 30) signal that the underlying is likely to fall further.
– Offers several put strike ideas and finds that the $84 put (premium ca. $0.49) fits the ideal price range; however, liquidity and open interest are better for the $85 strike.
─────────────────────────────
AREAS OF AGREEMENT AND DISAGREEMENT
─────────────────────────────
Agreements:
– All models (except for the one reporting an error) agree that the market sentiment is bearish.
– The negative news catalyst (export controls and potential charges) and the technical breakdown clearly drive the consensus.
– There is broad recognition that options data (with high OI on puts and max pain around $95)
is supportive of a downside move.
Disagreements:
– The primary difference is in the strike selection. Grok favors a put close to the current price (the $89 put) despite its higher premium, while Gemini, Llama/Meta, and DeepSeek lean toward lower strikes ($84–$85) that offer a lower premium (falling in or near our ideal range) and better liquidity for a weekly trade.
─────────────────────────────
CLEAR CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDED TRADE
─────────────────────────────
Overall Market Direction Consensus:
– The overall view is bearish. All models (apart from the one error) indicate that AMD is under significant downside pressure fueled by both technical breakdown and negative news sentiment.
Recommended Trade:
• Trade Type: BUY single‐leg, naked PUT (weekly option only)
• Chosen Strike: $85
– Rationale: The $85 put (ask at $0.64) offers good liquidity (high open interest of 10,218 contracts) and although its premium is slightly above the preferred $0.30–$0.60 range, its risk/reward profile is attractive given the bearish momentum.
• Expiration: April 17, 2025 (weekly options)
• Entry Timing: At market open
• Proposed Parameters:
– Entry Premium: Approximately $0.64
– Profit Target: Around $1.00 (this represents an attractive move if the bearish trend continues)
– Stop Loss: Approximately $0.45 to limit risk if price recovers unexpectedly
• Confidence Level: ~70%
• Key Risks and Considerations:
– Short‐term volatility may create intraday bounces despite the overall bearish trend.
– An oversold reaction or a temporary return toward the max pain level ($95) could adversely affect the trade.
– As this is a news–driven and highly volatile environment, trade size must be limited relative to account size.
─────────────────────────────
TRADE_DETAILS
─────────────────────────────
The final trade parameters in JSON format are shown below.
TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format)
{
"instrument": "AMD",
"direction": "
put",
"strike": 85.0,
"expiry": "2025-04-17",
"confidence": 0.70,
"profit_target": 1.00,
"stop_loss": 0.45,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 0.64,
"entry_timing": "open"
}
AMD: Best level to buy since Oct 2022.Advanced Micro Devices are virtually oversold on the 1W technical outlook (RSI = 30.639, MACD = -13.430, ADX = 36.312) having hit the bottom (HL) of the 3 year Channel Up. The 1W RSI is slightly even lower it was on the previous bottom of October 10th 2022. This should be the start of the new long term bullish wave, which based on the previous one should make a HH on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, approximately a +300% rally (TP = 280.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Amd - The One And Only Setup For 2025!Amd ( NASDAQ:AMD ) shifts to a very bullish market:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Perfectly following previous cycles, Amd corrected about -60% over the past couple of months. However now we are seeing some first bullish signs at a major confluence of support. If we actually also witness bullish confirmation, an incredible rally of about +200% could follow.
Levels to watch: $100, $300
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
$AMD $75 support targetHi, NASDAQ:AMD short may be activated here looking at the daily and weekly. I personally think we are in a bearish trend market wide with the uncertainty and unknowing's of global economics and policies. I believe NASDAQ:AMD will tap into my support zone, in my opinion we have a local resistance of $88-$90.
WSL.
OptionsMastery: SwingTrade on AMD? 🔉Sound on!🔉
📣Make sure to watch fullscreen!📣
Thank you as always for watching my videos. I hope that you learned something very educational! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Remember only risk what you are willing to lose. Trading is very risky but it can change your life!
LONG AMD: Keep it simple trends, time and duration3 Positions in AMD from 2018-2025
Duration of trades: 106 - 1,064 days
Gains: +217% - +917%
Closing in on the trend line, look for a bounce at the line or likely if it goes under, wait for a rally back above the line. This chart is set at the daily timeframe. If you trade on the minor volatility within the major trend, I've found the 2 hour timeframe using a combination of indicators, Relative Trend Index and HH and LL, net favorable results.
$SOXL Inverted Cup and Handlel (SELL NOW!)Grasping chart patterns is essential for market participants. This article explores the inverted cup and handle formation, a bearish signal that suggests potential downward movement.
The inverted cup and handle, also known as an upside-down cup and handle pattern, is a bearish chart pattern that can appear in both uptrends and downtrends. It is the reverse of the traditional bullish cup and handle pattern. The inverted formation consists of two main components: the "cup," an inverted U-shape, and the "handle," a small upward retracement following the cup.
SELL NASDAQ:NVDA AMEX:SOXL NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:AVGO NASDAQ:QCOM NASDAQ:MRVL NASDAQ:MU $TXN.
Lets BUY it again WHEN IT'S LOW guys.
Mark my word
OH NO! $SOXS is primed for a significant rise.The concept of a multiple bottom suggests that the stock has already experienced a significant decline, creating a buying opportunity at a lower price over time.
Plus, Trump is coming= BYE semidocutor stocks!
Stricter trade policies and tariffs on imported semiconductors could disrupt global supply chains, leading to higher costs and potential shortages.
During his previous presidency, Trump focused on "America First" policies, which included promoting domestic manufacturing and reducing reliance on foreign supply chains
Additionally, there were concerns about the potential mismanagement of federal initiatives like the CHIPS and Science Act, which aimed to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.
AMEX:SOXL , NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:AVGO , NASDAQ:QCOM : Sell now to take the profit.
IT'S COMING
#SAND #SANDUSDT #SANDBOX #LONG #SWING #AMD #Eddy#SAND #SANDUSDT #SANDBOX #LONG #SWING #AMD #Eddy
SANDUSDT.P SWING Long AMD Setup
Important areas of the upper time frame for scalping are identified and named.
This setup is based on a combination of different styles, including the volume style with the ict style. (( AMD SETUP ))
Based on your strategy and style, get the necessary confirmations for this Swing Setup to enter the trade.
Don't forget risk and capital management.
The entry point, take profit point, and stop loss point are indicated on the chart along with their amounts.
The responsibility for the transaction is yours and I have no responsibility for not observing your risk and capital management.
By scratching the price and time bar, you can see the big picture and targets.
Note: The price can go much higher than the second target, and there is a possibility of a 50%-100% pump on this currency. By observing risk and capital management, obtaining the necessary approvals, and saving profits in the targets, you can keep it for the pump.
Be successful and profitable.
#NOT #NOTUSDT #NOTCOIN #AMD #Analysis #Spot #Futures #Long #Eddy#NOT #NOTUSDT #NOTCOIN #AMD #Analysis #Spot #Futures #Long #Eddy
NOTUSDT.P Lower Time Frame "AMD" Analysis
Great opportunity to invest spot at a specified price.
To get confirmation, you need to be patient until the AMD structure is complete on the lower timeframe, first wait for the manipulation and then get confirmation of entry for buy trades, and follow the price during the distribution phase.
Important areas of the lower & higher time frame are identified and labled.
This Analysis is based on a combination of different styles, including the volume style with the ict style. (( AMD Analysis ))
Based on your strategy and style, get the necessary confirmations for this analysis to buy entery the trade.
Don't forget risk and capital management.
The entry point, take profit point are indicated on the chart along with their amount.
The responsibility for the transaction is yours and I have no responsibility for not observing your risk and capital management.
Note: The price can go much higher than the first target, and there is a possibility of a 300% & 1000% pump on this currency. By observing risk and capital management, obtaining the necessary approvals, and saving profits in the target, you can keep it for the pump.
Be successful and profitable.
(( This is a lower time frame AMD structure inside another higher time frame AMD structure. ))
Please Check NOTUSDT Higher Time Frame "AMD" Analysis from this link :
#NOT #NOTUSDT #NOTCOIN #AMD #Analysis #Spot #Long #Eddy#NOT #NOTUSDT #NOTCOIN #AMD #Analysis #Spot #Long #Eddy
NOTUSDT Higher Time Frame "AMD" Analysis
Great opportunity to invest spot at a specified price.
Important areas of the higher time frame are identified and labled.
This Analysis is based on a combination of different styles, including the volume style with the ict style. (( AMD Analysis ))
Based on your strategy and style, get the necessary confirmations for this analysis to buy entery the trade.
Don't forget risk and capital management.
The entry point, take profit point are indicated on the chart along with their amount.
The responsibility for the transaction is yours and I have no responsibility for not observing your risk and capital management.
Note: The price can go much higher than the first target, and there is a possibility of a 300% & 1000% pump on this currency. By observing risk and capital management, obtaining the necessary approvals, and saving profits in the target, you can keep it for the pump.
Be successful and profitable.
#X #XUSDT #XEMPIRE #LONG #Scalp #Scalping #Eddy#X #XUSDT #XEMPIRE #LONG #Scalp #Scalping #Eddy
XUSDT.P Scalping Long Setup
Important areas of the upper time frame for scalping are identified and named.
This setup is based on a combination of different styles, including the volume style with the ict style. (( AMD SETUP ))
Based on your strategy and style, get the necessary confirmations for this scalping setup to enter the trade.
Don't forget risk and capital management.
The entry point, take profit point, and stop loss point are indicated on the chart along with their amounts.
The responsibility for the transaction is yours and I have no responsibility for not observing your risk and capital management.
Note: The price can go much higher than the second target, and there is a possibility of a 70% pump on this currency. By observing risk and capital management, obtaining the necessary approvals, and saving profits in the targets, you can keep it for the pump.
Be successful and profitable.
AMD Advanced Micro Devices Price TargetAdvanced Micro Devices (AMD) has positioned itself as a major player in the semiconductor industry, capitalizing on growing demand for high-performance computing, artificial intelligence (AI), and data center solutions. As of now, AMD’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 17.12, indicating that the stock is trading at a reasonable valuation compared to its growth potential.
AMD has benefited from the increasing adoption of AI-driven solutions, particularly through its MI300 series of AI accelerators, which have gained traction among major cloud service providers. The company’s expansion into the data center market has also been a key growth driver, with strong sales in EPYC processors contributing to revenue growth.
Furthermore, AMD's strategic acquisition of Xilinx has strengthened its position in the FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array) market, enhancing its ability to offer diversified and high-margin products. This, combined with improving margins and consistent product innovation, positions AMD for steady financial performance in the coming quarters.
Given AMD’s solid fundamentals, growing market share in AI and data centers, and attractive valuation at a 17.12 forward P/E, a price target of $125 by the end of the year appears achievable. This would represent approximately 15% upside from current levels, driven by continued revenue growth and expanding profit margins.
AMD stock up over 20% off the lows- outperform NVidia?AMD is still cheap relative to its growth and still way down from all time highs.
Seeking alpha analysts expect 25-30% annual growth in earnings yearly. The stock is still in the low 20s PE. Stock can double and still be a good business worth owning for the long term and let compounding earnings work.
Low rsi and bollinger bands gave us the signal to buy, we bought with leverage, now we are in the shares unlevered.
Target would be all time highs over the next 2-3 years.
AMD broke above its 1D MA50. Is the trend finally changing?Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) broke today above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in almost 5 months (since October 29 2024)! From that day after it has also been below a Lower Highs trend-line, basically the Bearish Leg of the 1-year Channel Down, which it marginally broke last week but today it smashed it.
A short-term pull-back based on the 1D RSI symmetry (with the August 20 2024 and May 28 2024 Highs) is possible but on the long-term we expect a full recovery on this Bullish Leg of at least +43.13% (like the August - September Leg).
As a result, we expect a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) test at $135.00.
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AMD 1st breakout made. Now waiting for the 1day MA50.AMD is trading inside a Channel Down since November 1st 2024 and under a second layer of lower highs since December 4th 2024.
Along with the 1day RSI that just crossed above its own Resistance level, the price crossed above that second layer of lower highs.
This is the first sign of an upcoming bullish breakout but the last Resistance to confirm that is the 1day MA50.
If that breaks, go long and target 144.00.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
AMD - Advanced Money Destroyer...Not For Long!NASDAQ:AMD
Has been decimated but the DIP BUY BOX holds strong! $85-$100 could lead to an easy 2x!
- Key S/R Zone
- Massive Volume Shelf
- Bearish WCB Breakout will give Bullish Cue
- Lowest RSI since 2022 BOTTOM
A turnaround here could lead to outsized performance in portfolios.
Not financial advice
Amd - Please Look At The Structure!Amd ( NASDAQ:AMD ) is about to retest massive support:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
For about 5 years Amd has been trading in a decent rising channel formation. That's exactly the reason for why we saw the harsh drop starting in the beginning of 2024. But as we are speaking, Amd is about to retest a massive confluence of support which could lead to a beautiful reversal.
Levels to watch: $100
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)