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The Last Nail to the Coffin of Random Walk Theory..!In this article, I want to make my argument against the famous Random Walk Theory: First, let's see if the simplest thing that we think is Random and generates random outcome is really random: Coin Flip The most compelling finding that raises concerns about the validity of the coin toss comes from the use of mechanical coin flippers, which can be made to impart exactly the same initial conditions for every toss, namely the starting position, velocity, and force. In these cases, the outcome can be high, if not entirely, predictable. Coin tossing becomes physics rather than a random event. It is the human element that makes the process random in that each toss tends to be at a different speed, sent to a different height, launched at a different angle, or caught in a different manner. Therefore, the possibility of practicing the task to reduce these different elements can be considered. If you try to toss the coin the same way each time, you should be able to make the outcome significantly different than 50:50. A limitation of our study is the uncertainty about whether the individual results are repeatable. However, we conclude that the validity of using the toss of a coin to provide a random 50:50 outcome is thrown into doubt, both in medicine and everyday life. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov Now let's review My AMD analysis: Please go to each of them, push the play button and see what is happening and then ask yourself if the market is a random phenomenon??? Obviously, AMD has had a Complex correction since December 15, 2021, but I predict all the moves correctly ..! Another important thing to consider is in 1973 when Random Walk Theory was born, there was no computational power..! at least Mr. Malkiel had no access to today's computational power! The Biggest Secret of Rentech is that: It was Jim Simons who build a good team and made the most money, but it was not him who solved the market..! Think about... Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:AMDEducation
by Moshkelgosha
2
NVIDIA - Bears, This Is Your ChanceIn a previous post on NVIDIA following its earnings gap all time high, I posited that a bearish three drives was a real possibility, which would involve the stock actually going down and then driving up a few more times in accordance with the overall market topping: NVIDIA - A Scenario Few Are Considering. Few. Few. Few. That never panned out, and instead what we're looking at instead, as you can tell with all the insider selling, is a very likely bump and run reversal. But distribution patterns take a very long time to manifest, and one of the biggest tells with NVIDIA is despite it going from $366 to $440, it really has never targeted the sell side, not even rebalancing the original gap. As far as this company goes... well, when you come across something like this whose CEO is a Taiwanese dude prancing around in a leather jacket for every photo op while it's trading like a Chinese Communist Party pump and dump, a number of red flags beyond the 250x P/E it's trading at should emerge. Companies and their officers who have connections to the CCP are very dangerous, for the geopolitical situation is tense. Much is at stake right now with Mainland China and whether or not Xi Jinping is intelligent enough to get rid of the Party. If Xi can't get rid of the Party, then the International Rules Based Order will do it for him and will go to install their own people from Taiwan in the Mainland. Xi always has the option to weaponize the 24-year persecution of Falun Gong, started by the Jiang Zemin faction that's rooted in Shanghai, to take down the Party and defend China from the groups that wish to invade. Live organ harvesting isn't a sin that can survive public scrutiny, really. None of this is healthy for the markets, and if you're long on stocks at the top, some of them aren't coming back. The indexes might come back, but many companies definitely go to zero and will be replaced by a future generation. When you look at NVIDIA on the monthly, does this look like somewhere that you want to go long? A monthly "gap" like this will certainly always be filled, and it just happens to be right around the actual level we're looking to target. The weekly bars are severely ranged compressed, which tells us that a big move is coming I have a call on that Nasdaq that we're about to get a pretty violent and serious correction, but that it will really be a bear trap: Nasdaq - The Great Bear Trap You might feel right now that stocks ONLY GO UPPY. But considering you're in a bear market and these things have been mooning for like an entire quarter right now, you might want to check that notion before that notion wrecks you. The problem with NVIDIA going and making a new high right now is it's failed to do so twice. Friday's end of the day was a big rejection on everything Nasdaq. And this is a time when price stopped just 1.8% short of the high. So what it was really doing was covering the old range, and taking stops over the most subordinate high to the all time high. Another big tell is the SOXS and SOXL 3x leverage semiconductor ETFs are simultaneously setup on weekly and daily candles to breakout/retrace, and both started to do that in sync on the Friday dump. NVIDIA is the top component of the index underlying the ETF at roughly 9%. The most obvious place for it to retrace to to start taking out sell stops is the $395 gap. But this is only 5% at this point and not very scary. Meanwhile, all the bulls and all the bears start selling on a break of $366, because Discord and Reddit told them to and some books and guru videos told them to "because confirmation." Once the gap is finally balanced, I believe that Nasdaq is going to rip to something like 16,000 before we're done, and NVIDIA will actually finish its lifespan with a 5-handle. So for bears: here's your opportunity. But you better have realistic expectations. For bulls: here's your opportunity. But you better have patience in buying the dip, and you'll find you "made a lot of money getting out of the market too early." And for bulls and bears: stay away from ponzi companies and social distance from the CCP and all the Marxist-Leninist and atheist things. If you don't, you'll face more than the liquidation of your brokerage accounts, to say the very least.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by LordWrymouth
159
Wyckoff Cycle - AMD Setup 📊🎢🔍 Phase 1: Accumulation 📈 Imagine a market that's been in a downtrend, beaten down and disheartened. This is the accumulation phase, where savvy investors slowly start scooping up assets at bargain prices. It's like finding hidden treasures amidst the rubble. Prices might move sideways or slightly up, creating a sense of stability. 🎭 Phase 2: Manipulation 🕵️‍♂️ As accumulation continues, the market sentiment shifts. The smart money players start flexing their muscles. Prices might experience sharp upward spikes, tricking the crowd into believing a new bullish trend has begun. This is the manipulation phase – a time when market manipulation is at its peak. The goal? To create FOMO (fear of missing out) and draw in unsuspecting traders. 📉 Phase 3: Distribution 📉 Just when everyone thinks the party is getting started, reality checks in. The market takes a nosedive, catching the latecomers off-guard. This is the distribution phase – where the smart money players start offloading their assets at inflated prices. The unsuspecting crowd buys in, only to face a sudden and often brutal downturn. 💡 The Cycle's Dance: Accumulation, manipulation, and distribution create a rhythm that repeats in the market. It's like a choreographed dance between the smart money and the crowd's emotions. Understanding this cycle can give traders a leg up in spotting potential trends. 📊 Mapping Opportunities: Traders keen on capitalizing on the Wyckoff cycle often look for signs of accumulation, observe price manipulation tactics, and stay cautious during distribution. It's all about knowing the dance steps and staying ahead of the game. So, what's the bottom line in the Wyckoff cycle? 🎢 It's a market ballet of accumulation, manipulation, and distribution – a sequence driven by the dynamics of smart money and crowd sentiment. By recognizing these phases, traders can potentially align their strategies for a smoother dance through the market's twists and turns. Stay curious, stay vigilant, and keep your eyes on the dance floor of trading opportunities! 🚀🕺 ❗See related ideas below❗ Follow + Like this post and leave a nice comment, it will allow me to move faster and make more useful content! 💚💚💚
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Yaroslav_Krasko
NVDA - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Breakout floor of a rising trend channel in the medium long term. 🔹Resistance at 470, which could potentially trigger a NEGATIVE reaction, but an upward breakthrough indicates a POSITIVE signal. 🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term. Chart Pattern: 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by wavepoint99
AMD Still a buy as long as the 1D MA100 holds.Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is trading on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), still within the 10 month, maintaining its buy status. As long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) holds, we will be long and target the 165.00 All Time High (ATH). If the price closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA100, we will take the loss and open a sell, targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 95.00, on a potential contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) too, which is intact since March 02. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by TradingShot
6
AMD - Greed Doth Bad Habits BreedI've noticed that, especially in the last week, the trading community has really transformed into almost full bore greed. People are buying highs on almost anything, especially some of the most dubious of stocks, and getting rewarded with 5-15% gains every day. There's even a popular post on here that asks "As new highs approach, what is the bear case?" Whenever the climate is like this, you really, really have to take a step back and cool your head. If we were in a sustained bull market like we had in 2021, greed may ostensibly be fair enough. But when the Fed rate is at 5.5 percent and there aren't going to be cuts, with 6% enroute before year end, and TBond yields acting like they want to court with 4.5% or 5%, you're sort of in the Twilight Zone right now. If repricing to the downside really does occur, it's going to be fast and sudden. AMD is the company that floundered, and hard, after losing the arms race to Intel for a lot of years. Then it hired a Chinese CEO, who flew over to the Chinese Communist Party's land and did some courtship, and then all of a sudden AMD was worth a lot of money, and has been for a while. You have to really be very careful with anything connected to the CCP and China because of the geopolitical tensions between Xi Jinping and the International Rules Based Order. All the yammering about "Taiwan" is about the IRBO looking to plant a man from Taiwan in Xi's seat when the CCP falls in the exceptionally near term future. Yet Xi, a Chinese nationalist, can defend China's 5,000 year old Divinely-imparted culture, and himself, by weaponizing the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong that was launched by the Party and former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999. If any of the above really transpires, please use your head: Beijing's noon is New York's midnight. Whatever happens in China is going to happen outside of NYSE/Nasdaq hours, which means those enchanted by greed are one day going to enjoy the bitter fruit of a brutal breakaway gap that never comes back. So, AMD earnings are tomorrow post market. This is notable, because despite all the bull fever and delirium, I note that we really might be watching the markets top right now: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg And if you take a look at a number of stock market calls I link below, you'll see there's a number of warning signals that are really worth considering, but still some pretty nice long opportunities. So with AMD, what I'd like to point out as we head into earnings are two things: 1. The market makers left a goalpost at $133, based on the monthly. Price action absolutely does not have to take this point out, but since it counts as "resistance" to retail traders, it stands to reason it will go at some point 2. Price action since the late-June dump is NOT bullish. It is a classic markdown-and-sell-a-lot-more pattern that traps all the people who bought over $120 and have been comfortably numb averaging down. On weekly charts, the red box is a place that price action is likely to return to, and the catalyst for this may very well be earnings. There's really a precedent for this, with Taiwan Semiconductor, which I think is a very high likelihood long-term long even as markets sell off, because it's not a member of the Nasdaq or the SPX: TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge An important thing to note about TSM is that it's a very similar set up to AMD, but also a lot more bullish of a pattern, and yet it lost some 7% on earnings. Earnings plays are very hard because the fundamentals don't matter. You get major gap repricing and have to pay a high premium for leverage or for puts/calls to boot. Yet, a dump under $100 for AMD would likely be a real buying opportunity with a target over $135. While you might find it too good to be true, May was already a $50/65% month for AMD. Yet nobody wants to buy when there's big red. Instead, they want to buy on green and HODL, because you've been so perfectly conditioned, Pavloved, and trained by smart money. Alternatively, if earnings were to raid $135, it may very well be the sell of the year. Good luck. With the situation as it is, you should always ask yourself: "Are we really going to set new highs, or are we at the top of a bear market rally?"
NASDAQ:AMD
by LordWrymouth
American Superconductor - Floating Crystals, Floating CandlesThe new rage on financial social media is that a new room temperature superconductor has been discovered, and appears to be replicable in labs. This is significant because superconductors normally have to be either really hot or really cold during their operations. So, AMSC has Superconductor in its name and is naturally pumping, and has been since May. The biggest pump was August 1 at 60%, spurred on my a lot of social media chatter, especially in Korean and Chinese. Greed in the markets is already at extremes, people are convinced new all time highs on indexes are as good as in the bank, and it's very dangerous. Moreover, you're dealing with hidden geopolitical risks from a Chinese Communist Party being on the edge of collapse that's guilty of the 24-year-long persecution and organ harvesting genocide of Falun Dafa meditation's 100 million practitioners. And people want to long the top on stuff that's already up 400%+. The world truly is an asylum. And look at the monthly bar this has produced with people longing a daily range between $14 and $17. The weekly candle looks more sane, because at least we're on Tuesday, but it still shows that this swing may have already topped. So, here's the thing about the fundamentals of this kind of trade: 1. The Superconductor discovery right now is a piece of lead apatite crystal that is capable of majority levitation and diamagnetism when placed on a magnetic plate. 2. The crystal has been made by students in a lab using a paper from Korea. 3. It looks like a little piece of graphite/charcoal. Unless you put it on a magnetic plate, it doesn't even float. 4. Let's say the crystal is truly revolutionary, how many years away from it making its way into a sellable product are you? 5. Why would you think American Superconductor Corporation is going to be the one who licenses something disruptive? 6. Wouldn't TSM, Intel, or AMD, or some Elon Musk/Peter Thiel/Sam Altman-type venture be the ones to steal it? 7. The stock has already quadrupled in price 8. At Tuesday's close, the market cap is $488 billion 9. Look at their earnings results: they bring in $25 million in revenue quarterly 10. Next ER is August 9 post-market. Can you maintain a $500 million market cap when they report $20 million in revenue and the CEO tells investors and banks on the conference call that they aren't going to be able to profit from the discovery? In essence, you're kind of dealing with a real corporation that's being subjected to something of a Bed Bath and Beyond-style pump and dump. And this is at a time when greed in the markets is already extreme. People are longing the top on things like Palantir and SOFI without second thought and gettin' paid daily. Yet the United States credit rating was downgraded today after the Treasury said it wanted to issue another $1.8 trillion worth of debt, and now the Nasdaq and the SPX are gap down on Wednesday futures open. I discuss this here: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg I actually think there's a long trade on ASMC over $20 before the hypenstein is over. But if you don't see it manifest at market open Wednesday and prices lower than $13.31 are traded as the indexes drive a lot of things down, you're probably going back to $10 first, which is just horrific for top longers. Take a look at the five minute chart. Tuesday market close was either a big buy or 45 minutes before market close was a big short. You have to decide for yourself. But sell the news, man, is really a piece of wisdom. After all, implied volatility is so high that an August 18 at the money call is $4.10, on a $16 stock. That's a lot of premium and the options sellers just absolutely love your exit liquidity.
NASDAQ:AMSC
by LordWrymouth
Is NVDA done correcting? LONGNVDA shot up on earnings two months ago and more or less went sideways until mid July when it trended up for a week and then reversed downward. On the 2H chart, I have placed both a VWAP anchored to the earnings date as well as a volume profile. Price is currently above the 0.5 Fib level as well as at one standard deviation above the mean VWAP and above the POC line of the volume profile. The mean VWAP and POC are confluent at about 422. I suspect that it is at this level that volatility will be the highest and at where buyers will step in to open a trade shares of NVDA that have been oversold and are undervalued. Because of that, I will place NVDA on my watchlist for a long trade when it trends down approaching 422. The stop loss will be 418 or about 1% while targeting the recent double top of 475 and so a zone of horizontal resistance confluent with dynamic resistance in the red line of two standard deviations above the mean VWAP. Confirmation of an upcoming reversal is the histogram of the zero-lag MACD going red to green. NVDA has had a great run this year (220%) and its heavy presence in the AI megatrend bodes well for a good continuation.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by AwesomeAvani
25
AMD Long will Go to 260$ or higher New 52-week highs this week, powered by the Dow which, on Friday, extended its streak of positive days to ten — something the blue chip index has not done in almost six years. The Dow has been powered by, among other things, a slew of corporate financial results, particularly from the banks, which showed not only improved profitability, but also strong guidance for the next quarter and full year. I have explained 2 bullish scenarios,1 bearish(worse case). Bullish: higher highs higher lows poc uprising volume increasing capital flow rising In case the Take profits hit, and we have increased volume, I will ride the trend. I will only take profit 10% of the AMD portfolio and let the profit run. Exit :Stop loss or trend change signal The mid and long term horizon is bullish. If any Profit taking level reaches, and trend continuation is signalizing that the uptrend will be continued, I will increase agressively my positions and take only 10% profits of each position.I will let the prfoits run. This trade setup is only for trend followers and on daily TF.
CAPITALCOM:AMDLong
by DaveBrascoFX
NVDA Breaking Out from Consolidatiom LONGNVDA has been in consolidation for two weeks. On the 1H chart, yesterday, the MTF RSI indicator shows that the lower TF RSIc rossed over the 50 level and then crossed over the higher TF RSI a clear and convincing sign of rapidly increasing relative strength. Price is in a VWAP breakout now having crossed from the mean VWAP anchored into mid- June and up crossing over the one and two standard deviation lines. The zero-lag MACD shows a line cross under the histogram occurred in the after-hours trading on Tuesday evening. Price has crossed over the POC line of the visible range volume profile yet another sign of bullish buying pressure and momentum. Overall, my analysis is that NVDA is set up for a long swing trade which I will take today.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by AwesomeAvani
5
AMD stocks experienced range fluctuations in 1.382 and 1.618AMD stocks experienced range fluctuations in 1.382 and 1.618 positions This chart shows the weekly candle chart of AMD stocks over the past two years. The top to bottom golden section at the end of 2021 is superimposed in the figure. As shown in the figure, AMD stocks experienced range fluctuations in May and mid June of this year after retreating to 1.382 and 1.618 positions, following the 1.000 position of the golden section in the upper test chart! The weekly chart for the past two weeks has shown a long upward shadow and a steady downward shift in center of gravity! In the future, the probability of AMD stocks weakening is expected to return to the bullish starting point in May 2023 as shown in the chart!
NASDAQ:AMD
by Think_More
$AMD the 2nd fiddle fizzle?Looking at NASDAQ:AMD , you can see that AMD struggles to hold above $125. This brings up the question, "Will it be able to catch up to NASDAQ:NVDA ?" It appears that more time is needed. AMD remains a solid company with the potential to continue capturing more market share. Although AMD's chips are not primarily used for AI, it doesn't mean the company won't try to enter this race. Meanwhile, NASDAQ:INTC hasn't made substantial progress but continues to hold on to most of their legacy market share. Therefore, I like where AMD stands as it continues to close in on Intel. Bullish Case - At present, AMD has tested the $125 level twice, suggesting that it is searching for more support. Let's see if AMD can find support and take a third shot at it soon. I see a great opportunity to monitor the levels to determine if we can make a lower high or accumulate below in a consolidation phase before breaking out to challenge the $125 level again. Bearish Case - Let's be serious, there is a reason for this double top. It's time for it to make a significant pullback. It needs to pull back to the .618 Fibonacci level. Fine, bulls, you are in an uptrend, but enough of the parabolic move—let the ticker breathe. Conclusion - Being below the CheatCode Swing 0 line favors the bear case to provide support in a commonly targeted area of Fibonacci retracement, yet looking at the CheatCode Squeeze momentum indicates a potential continuation of the bullish trend. This could leas to chop and indecision. Bullish above $125.39 Bearish below $107.35
NASDAQ:AMD
by JDTheGreat
AMD - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Breakout short-term resistance be POSITIVE signal with support at 100 and resistance at 130. 🔹Price increases on high volume and decreases on low volume. 🔹Technically POSITIVE for medium-term long-term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by wavepoint99
ASML - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Forming inverse head and shoulders pattern. 🔹Breaking resistance at 793 indicates further rise. 🔹POSITIVE signal from Rectangle formation breakout resistance at 668; Next resistance at 762. 🔹Technically POSITIVE for medium-term long-term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
NASDAQ:ASMLLong
by wavepoint99
Opening (IRA): AMD August 18th 90 Short Put... for a .91 credit. Comments: Grinding through my single name IV screener to sell premium in high IV single name here, targeting the shortest duration <16 delta strike to emulate dollar cost averaging into the underlying. Here, the top 10 are: SABR, SNAP, TSLA, CCL, META, NFLX, TEVA, AMD, CLF, INTC. I'm already in TSLA, META, and NFLX and some of the others are too small to be worthwhile from a dollar and cents standpoint (i.e., SABR, 3.22/share; TEVA, 7.58). As usual, I'm perfectly fine with taking assignment of shares, selling call against if that happens, but primarily just looking to augment the amount of theta I have on, since my usual broad market go-tos (IWM, QQQ, SPY) aren't exactly paying buckets in shorter duration.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by NaughtyPines
3