AMD to under $9630m chart shown above, Banked on AMD calls today but now that we've gotten over $103 we've got to go somewhere. A retracement to .78 on the fibs is where I have demand at $95.50 as long as we stay under $103.30. Such a huge amount of displacement, I think that we should be able to come back to these $103 highs at some point in the near future.
AMD
AMD short and long Based on the current chart, AMD appears to be in a diamond consolidation pattern. However, recent movements have created a large FVG area, indicating potential for a retest of $84 before moving higher. If AMD is unable to hold the $81 support during the retest, it may have hit its high for the next few years. On the other hand, if there is a bounce after retesting $84, there may be another move to the upside, with potential shorting opportunities at around $120. Despite these short-term fluctuations, my long-term target for this stock remains at $34.
AMD: Long Idea, 3Bar Play AMD: Continuation on 390m horizon. 3 Bar play identified with breakout of opening range. Acceptance has now moved PA over key levels w/o/w since establishing new character out of April 24, 2023. >102.43 revisits July/MAR 2022 auction// Beta: 1.91%, ATR: 4.12, IV: 48.32%// Bias: Risk on// Price at time of publish: 101.53
AMD down - example editionJust to follow up my long term ideas on AMD / NFLX
Here is a prime example on a lower timeframe to show what happens in these situations on PEPE the "memecoin" now of course you could argue its fundamentals are terrible and thats the reason it crashed, but a chart looks the same no matter the fundamentals, the odds usually play out, nothing guaranteed but I will play the odds every single time.
I think it is quite possible to have a rejection around the 110 area on AMD.
This area had failed to be held and will go back to retest.
WHOOPS - I FORGOT TO ADD THE LINE AT THE MONTHLY CANDLE, but im sure you can see why I am looking for 110 roughly before downside. Could very well just drop from here though.
AMD to $100+ by tomorrow?I'm excited for this one. All day I thought the market was gonna be bearish until I started paying more attention to AMD. retested the low and also made a ChoCH and sweep on internal liquidity. Really expecting us to blast through $100 to $101.85+ tomorrow. Loaded up on $100 calls and hopefully this plays out.
AMD - Rising Trend Channel [MID TERM]- AMD is in a rising trend channel in the medium long term.
- AMD has met the objective at 96.47 after a break of the double bottom formation.
- The price has now fallen, but the formation indicates further rise.
- AMD has marginally broken up through resistance at 85.00.
- Overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.
*EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, RTS: Resistance to be Support LT TP: Long Term Target Price
*Chart Pattern:
DT - Double Top | BEARISH | RED
DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | GREEN
HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | RED
REC - Rectangle | BLUE
iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | GREEN
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
SPX & NADSAQ | KRE Fear Low | FOMC| AMD NVDA| Technical AnalysisRed flag 1: SP:SPX & SKILLING:NASDAQ did not break close above Key resistance yesterday
New fear low in AMEX:KRE regional banks, fear of snowing balling into something substantial
NASDAQ:AMD poor Q2 guidance down 6% AH dragging NASDAQ:NVDA to break its 280 support.
FOMC 11pm PST tomorrow 0.25 hike 90% chance.
Shorting NASDAQ:SOXX in AMEX:SOXS
AMD STRONG UPTRENDAMD is currently creating a possible weekly higher low which is an indication of the start of a uptrend on lower time frames. AMD also has earnings after market today which could initiate the move or invalidate it. With the weekly having a closed bullish Pinbar @ the trendline there is strong confirmation signaling a bullish move up for the next week or two.
NVDA & NSADAQ Key Resistance Analysis into FOMC Wednesday- Personally i think NVDA is overvalued but markets can stay overvalue for longer than you think and vice versa
- if we do get a quick reversal here from NVDA than it would be a bull trap right no zero signs of that.
- strong 15m EMA 12 guide for NVDA
- NVDA outperforming SMH and QQQ
- NASDAQ broke above resistance no follow through
- SPX did not break above resistance need both to break.
- AMD ER tomorrow AH
AMD to resume ZIG ZAG UPSIDEAs we analyze the 4 hour chart of AMD we have continued to seem the same pattern inside the "macro" blue channel and I believe we continue to grind higher inside this channel. As you can see there are 3 other channels inside the blue channel (the white channels) which show a "bullish" correction then a push higher every time. I am looking for AMD to do the same thing until we see bearish signs (price heading out of the blue channel)... Until then I will continue to play the saying "trend is your friend"... Let's continue to look for upside on AMD.
AMD ready to push higher (30 min)We are seeing good momentum with AMD and I believe we see this stock keep running into next week. All indictors are pointing to more green and higher prices. I tend to look at the Chiku Span (green line behind the price) to let me know if we are going to see momentum slow down but it is still showing strong momentum and far away from the candles. So going into next week lets see if AMD can keep running.
Semi Sector Analysis | $NVDA $AMD $SMH | Support & Resistance |- NASDAQ:NVDA still lead bull in the NASDAQ:SMH sector you can see AMD already has been dropping
- NVDA clear resistance 280 rejected multiple times
- SMH holding above its weekly support, 13 cents away from breaking on Friday.
- NASDAQ:MSFT and NASDAQ:GOOGL ER Tuesday AH will drag SMH which everyway the earnings come in.
NVDA Future Long Term Outlook | $QQQ | Bank Earnings kick off- NASDAQ:NVDA shaping up a H&S bearish pattern on daily time frame
- NASDAQ:SMH / SOXX semi sector relatively weaker than NASDAQ:QQQ & $NASDAQ. that's why im still holding onto SOXS
- When lead bull sectors starts to turn into more bearish we have to be careful with the other sectors. So far it is showing relative weakness but not too big of a divergence yet.
- Bank earnings will not directly effect QQQ and SMH but will indirectly effect sentiment and if SPY drops a lot so will tech stocks and vice versa.
ASML: Dominating the industry 💾ASML Holding N.V. is a holding company based in the Netherlands. The Company operates through its subsidiaries in the Netherlands, the United States, Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Belgium, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia and Israel. The Company operates through one business segment which is engage in development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems, consisting of lithography, metrology and inspection systems. The Company offers TWINSCAN systems, equipped with lithography system with a mercury lamp as light source (i-line), Krypton Fluoride (KrF) and Argon Fluoride (ArF) light sources for processing wafers for manufacturing environments for which imaging at a small resolution is required. TWINSCAN systems also include immersion lithography systems (TWINSCAN immersion systems).
ASML's lithography systems use a process called photolithography to create intricate patterns on silicon wafers, which are then used to create integrated circuits, memory chips, and other semiconductor components. These patterns are created using a process of etching, deposition, and other techniques that require precise alignment and control.
ASML's customers are primarily semiconductor manufacturers such as Intel, Samsung, TSMC, and GlobalFoundries. These companies use ASML's lithography systems to create the most advanced microchips on the market. ASML's customers are some of the largest and most influential players in the semiconductor industry, and they rely on ASML to provide them with cutting-edge technology that enables them to stay ahead of the competition.
ASML's business model is based on a high degree of innovation and research and development. They invest heavily in R&D to continually improve their technology and maintain their market leadership. Additionally, they operate on a capital-intensive model, where the cost of producing their lithography systems is high but the revenue potential is also significant.
Overall, ASML's business model is centered around developing and selling advanced lithography systems to the world's leading semiconductor manufacturers, which requires a high degree of technological innovation, R&D investment, and capital-intensive production processes.
There are other companies that offer lithography systems for the semiconductor industry, such as Canon, Carl Zeiss, and Ultratech, but they do not directly compete with ASML in the advanced lithography segment of the market. These companies generally offer less advanced lithography systems that are used for less complex microchip manufacturing applications.
ASML's main customers are some of the largest semiconductor manufacturers in the world. These companies use ASML's lithography systems to manufacture advanced semiconductor chips for a wide range of applications, including smartphones, computers, servers, and other electronic devices.
Some of ASML's key customers include:
- TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)
- Samsung Electronics
- Intel Corporation
- SK Hynix
- Micron Technology
- GlobalFoundries
- UMC (United Microelectronics Corporation)
- STMicroelectronics
- Toshiba Memory Corporation
- Nanya Technology
With the underlying business performing so well over the years, its no surprise to see the stock has followed suit. Since 1996, ASML has returned +23.38% CAGR compared to +9.02% for SPY
At this rate of return HKEX:10 ,000 invested in ASML back in 1996 would have grown to over HKEX:3 million!
The strong market position and outlook for the business make me believe that the company will not be slowing down any time soon, and even at a valuation of 36x earnings I think this is a business trading at a fair value.
I have added this to my portfolio which you can check out here ⬇️
www.etoro.com
AMD, 10d+/-32.9%falling cycle -32.9% more than 10 days.
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This data is analyzed by robots. Analyze historical trends based on The Adam Theory of Markets (20 moving averages/60 moving averages/120 moving averages/240 moving averages) and estimate the trend in the next 10 days. The white line is the robot's expected price, and the upper and lower horizontal line stop loss and stop profit prices have no financial basis. The results are for reference only.
NVDIA - Expect Sideways Until Bear Puts Expire WorthlessEver since NVDIA went up after its February earnings call, it seems that social media traders have been afflicted with a fetish for trying to short it. There's all sorts of fundamental reasons, they say, such as NVIDIA is trading at blah blah times P/E, AI doesn't actually need chips beyond the initial machine learning phase, and of course the top reason that everything should be bearish: the Federal Reserve isn't pivoting!
None of that matters. One of the biggest pieces of wisdom I can share with you is that fundamentals do not matter in the way that you're led to believe that they matter. If the markets really worked that way, then there would neither be bubbles nor would there be undervalued stocks. If everything algorithmically traded in line with what "it was truly worth" you would have no opportunity at all to make (lose) any money, would feel bored with the computer, and would go outside.
The fundamentals to the market at large right now, including with the recent collapse of regional banks and Silicon Valley Bank, is that everything in this world is revolving around "relationships" that companies, people, organizations, and communities have established with Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party. This especially includes what happened during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic and the world's response to the disease.
Too many people have, for the sake of the economic and recreational benefits that the Chinese Government has offered, imported the CCP's cultural revolution stuff back home. And yet, the CCP under the Jiang Zemin faction is guilty of almost 24 years of persecution against the 100 million practitioners of Falun Gong meditation, which involves the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting as a form of torture (Kilgour-Matas Report).
And the result is a lot of business and social practices have developed under the Party's method that amount to cancers festering in the world's body. If you want to get rid of a cancer, you have to not only cut it out, but get rid of the root cause and the behaviors and habits that give the disease the environment it needs to lump around.
The thing about NVIDIA is that it has a story. Stories matter more than fundamentals in the short term. In the long term, fundamentals matter more than stories. This is because a small group of whales needs a pretext in order to bait in a large number of fish and a moderate amount of sharks to feed on, and this operation is a short to midterm play that revolves around the longer term fundamentals, which cannot be avoided.
NVIDIA's story is that there's a cool Chinese guy with grey hair running the company wearing a leather jacket. He says that he can sell a lot of chips right now and quickly exceed the very worthless crypto mining boom because GPT4 and STABLE DIFFUSION and the AI REVOLUTION need GRAPHICS CARDS more than rich kids need $1,800 graphic cards to be addicted to video games instead of having jobs and girlfriends.
Well, I'm a price action trader. I think the charts show the truth of the markets and their combined understanding and the candles reflect the operation in play. Zoom out, is what they always say:
NVIDIA on the monthly, when it dumped in October, took out a long term low from 2021.
Taking out a low all on its own doesn't mean much, but my friends, when a highcap takes out a big low AND THEN ALSO bounces 74% over the next three months, and instead of heading towards making new lows, goes ahead and makes a new high the next month, why are you shorting something that's going up?
Look at this pattern on the weekly and ask yourself what you really find appealing about buying puts on this besides hearing all the rabble in signal groups and on social media yell about HOW OVERPRICED this stock is and how IT SHOULD GO TO ZERO. IT'S GOING TO ZERO.
And even more so now with NVDIA closing at ~$270, this is the worst time to trade it. You've already missed the boat to go long, and going short has destroyed a lot of accounts.
You're at the apex of an inflection point, and the scenarios on both sides are very simple:
1. If it's bearish, then the MM is short from the early '22 pivot parked under $300, and bears are about to get what they want.
2. But that pivot is right under the $300 psychological level where big short positions now have their stops
3. If NVDIA is truly bullish, it will take out that pivot, sweep $300 and then is likely to retrace
4. But for bears, it doesn't make sense to give them a way out and retrace like that.
5. Thus, the most annoying thing the MM can do is to park price in this $255-275 range for several weeks and kill everyone's put and call premiums while selling the contracts
6. This means no retrace. Instead, when everyone's lost all their money going short, and it doesn't dump and NVDIA does go over $300 in May or June, price doesn't look back and sets a new all time high
7. Bears bamboozled and in disbelief about how a tech stock can set a new ATH during FEDERAL RESERVE RATE HIKES
If you want to make money in trading, you need to put risk management at the top of your priority list.
What's really implied by this is that you stop gambling. The way you stop gambling is by changing your heart and your intentions in trading. You have to stop wanting to get rich. If you try to change your life with gambling then you will, as a result, ruin your life. Literally everyone knows this and yet people still try to make their lives "happy" through gambling.
What you're trying to so is solidly and systematically increase your account on a compounding basis. To do this, you need winning trades and not losing trades. To do this, this means you need less trades, because let's be honest, most of your trades are losers.
In order to achieve all of the above, you need to quit listening to influencers and Discord and Telegram signal groups, delete the Marxist social influencing website Reddit, and start thinking for yourself.
You have to understand that a lot of these people do not trade themselves. They make their money grifting you for subscriptions and from behind the scenes for pushing certain things on their followers. You think from looking at how they talk and how they act and what they say that they're making a lot of money and are very successful, but almost all of them are either total frauds or losing traders.
Stop looking up to "heroes." There are no heroes. There's just you and your life, and you're in a very harsh and adversarial environment where the moral standard is very low and the people around you have very, very poor values. You need to make sure that your moral standard is high and that you have values and ideals that you can stand in front of your grandchildren with and hold your head high.
Also, genuine winning traders are both few and far between, and generally do not carry a high profile. People who have survived in the markets for a while also understand both how easy it is and how painful it is to lose money. They understand how hard money is to get it back once it's been lost. And thus, they aren't out there cowboying around.
You shouldn't listen to what I tell you either, because you need to think for yourself.
If you don't get sober and rational now, then when this world really changes as the Chinese Communist Party falls, a day which is extremely, extremely close, you won't have a chance to make it through the tribulation, because the requirement to pass through is that you have clean hands, a clean heart, and have chosen a bright future for yourself.