$AMD not enough juice for earningsQcom dropped hard and with market conditions, AMD is looking like a 3-2d on the day. Needs to break 58 (also the bottom of the BF) but again we are right back in the chop zone. We have also triggered the outside week under 59.69, with a target of 56.67. If it can act right with a nice red day tomorrow, it can break that range. 1 hour correction may be needed first.
AMD
AMD: Possible scenarios - A Multi-Time Frame Analysis.• AMD is in a critical situation, inside an Ascending Triangle chart pattern;
• To whatever side it breaks, AMD will look interesting, so let’s work with a few scenarios.
• First, by doing a downwards breakout, it’ll just resume the bearish sentiment (AMD is still bearish, keep this in mind), and the next support around $54 would be just the first target;
• Second, by doing an upwards breakout, AMD will do mid-term reversal, and in this scenario, I see it retesting the next resistance in the weekly chart (blue area), and the 21 ema as well (the 21 ema is dropping, and it’ll be at lower levels in the next weeks);
• Third, if AMD does a sideways breakout it’ll frustrate the pattern, we can’t set targets for this scenario;
• Either way, it is worth keeping an eye on AMD for now.
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AMD Advanced Micro Devices Options Ahead of EarningsLooking at the AMD Advanced Micro Devices options chain, i would buy the $60 strike price Puts with
2022-11-4 expiration date for about
$1.81 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMD might visit earth and witness deathThere are two scenarios I am considering in AMD
1. Bull Case:- They come up with good er then it might push upto 68ish area and complete the w4-5
2. Bear case:- Er is bad then bear flag might get triggered and flush upto 48 area.
Regardless of ER, I think one more fresh low will be made in AMD.
AMD D1: 35% CORRECTION TP HIT CONGRATS(SL/TP)(STOCKS/RECAP)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview?
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AMD D1: 35% CORRECTION TP HIT CONGRATS(SL/TP)(STOCKS/RECAP)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: AMD H2 chart review and outlook
::: TP HIT already congrats
::: original setup posted July 26th
::: review original setup via link below
::: maxed out already
::: Currently DISTRIBUTION almost completed
::: we broke down on heavy volume
::: this is NASTY looking chart
::: BAD for the BULLS / stay out
::: FED rate hikes incoming / FED PUT is GONE
::: short sell rips/rallies in the throwback move
::: expecting backtest of the recent Distribution Range
::: recommended strategy: SHORT IT / STAY OUT
::: up to 35% correction still possible from here
::: fair value for Amd is 55/60 USD
::: DO NOT BUY/HOLD here this is NOT A DIP
::: This is stock market meltdown in progress
::: be careful / don't get ran over by the FED
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
. N/A
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Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
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NVDA SHORT IF WE FAIL TO BREAK ABOVENVDA is rejecting near the $134-$135 region which is acting as the current resistance. NVDA has formed a descending channel that can be spotted on the 1hr, 2hr, 4hr and Daily time frames. We're currently rejecting off the top trend line and should reach $115-$120. However, if we break the over head resistance we head higher. I'm currently shorting NVDA on pull backs until we reach $115-$120 where I'll be getting calls. My current short region is $134-$135 where I'm loading up on $130 puts 2-3 weeks out.
$AMD tight spot, with this inside dayNOW earnings boosted this after hours. It's in an interesting spot. $60 was the level to beat. It held it for the most part. If it can stay above and trigger the 2-1-2u tomorrow, it can be a good play. It really needs to break 62 with some force since that BF is sitting right there. Then can target the 64. Breaking that will flip the month/qtr green and can target the gap. This may not happen until earnings or not at all, but something to be aware of. Downside needs to break and hold 59 and can target 56, but be careful as this has been a chop area. Call vol is nice
AMD Nears Multi-Month Support, Higher Risk for ShortsPrimary Chart: AMD's YTD Parallel Channel and Short-Term 2.5 Month Parallel Channel
This post will provide only a brief update to the more detailed technical discussions of AMD from last week. The more detailed technical analysis is contained in a pair of AMD posts linked on the Primary Chart above.
1. Nothing has changed with regard to AMD's larger downtrend structure. As discussed in last week's analyses, AMD remains in a severe downtrend that has shown no evidence of structural change.
2. Last week's discussions identified a false breakout above the shorter-term down trendline, made especially clear by a Pinocchio bar with a long shadow protruding above this trendline. This foreshadowed the large decline that ensued the next day, with the stock gapping down significantly. Since the Pinocchio bar was identified, the stock has plummeted another -15.0% to -17.1%. Isn't it interesting that when stocks are in a trend in either direction, they can go higher / lower than expected? Stocks that seem very low in a downtrend seem to find their way ever lower.
3. An extremely sharp bear bounce could occur at any time . Just look at the prior rallies in the chart below this paragraph. Many of these bear rallies rise nearly vertically from the lower line of the channel (called the return line). This is typical of bear rallies. They tend to be some of the strongest rallies that happen in markets, and this bear market has been a fascinating learning experience (even if painful for longer-term investors) as these rallies and declines unfold.
Supplementary Chart: Measurement of Prior Bear Rallies and Bounces YTD
4. Just because bear rallies can happen doesn't mean that every time the lower channel is tagged that a sharp rally will ensue. But a bullish divergence has formed on daily RSI , meaning that as price made new lows, RSI made higher lows. But a bullish divergence can be erased by price falling rapidly to a new low and pulling RSI with it below its prior RSI low. So it's better to wait for confirmation from price.
5. The lower edge of the parallel channel on Primary Chart shows where price could reach in October 2022. This level ranges from about $55 to $51 over the course of this month. The critical question for AMD is whether (i) price will accelerate its downtrend even further by breaking below this line or (ii) whether AMD will reverse there for a sharp bounce back into the channel. One other alternative is that AMD could whipsaw below the line for a few trading days in an extreme exhaustion move, then snap back above the line, signaling an intermediate term rally.
Having identified the key levels that may affect the price action, SquishTrade will not attempt to make bold predictions of either (a) a break below the trendline, or (b) a key reversal that leads to a sharp trip back to the top of the channel. Much will depend on the FOMC minutes and CPI this week and their affect on the interest-rate environment. Given the environment (a severe downtrend) and the levels shown, traders and investors can make their best call with tight stops in place that measure and limit risk—risk is inherent in every trade or investment which is why stops are important for everyone except Warren Buffett—or even better, they can wait patiently for a trend-based setup at resistance.
________________________________________
Author's Comments:
(1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view.
(2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades.
(3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success.
(4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 26th October 2022On H4, with the price moving within the descending channel and below ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the sell entry at 67.15, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement is to the take profit at 48.35, which is in line with the 127.2% fiboancci extension and 161.8% fibonacci projection. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 78.6, where the 50% fibonacci retracement is.
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AMD Week of October 24Looking at our last week of choppy price action, AMD reacted in a few of the same levels multiple times over the past month. Some important levels to watch again this week: 60.21, 59.70, 58.23, 57.40, 56.39. Would like to take calls off the bounce of 56.39, puts off the reject of 60.21.
AMD Stuck in a Severe DowntrendPrimary Chart: Linear Regression Channel and Two Long-Term Anchored VWAPs
No matter what method is used to analyze and define the trend, AMD has been stuck in a severe downtrend since its all-time high on November 30, 2021. Like other growth and technology stocks (except for FAANG stocks and Microsoft), AMD's November 2021 peak occurred a month before the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) topped on January 4, 2021.
The linear regression channel, set a two-standard deviations from the linear regression line, evidences the downtrend as of today, October 6, 2022. Price is hovering just under the linear regression channel's midline, which is the linear regression "line of best fit."
Two anchored VWAPs also confirm the validity of the downtrend as well. The first anchored VWAP is anchored to the all-time high in November 2021. That VWAP is well overhead at $102.38 as of today, and it slopes downward. Note how it has been resistance at major swing highs after sharp bear rallies over the past year. The second anchored VWAP is anchored to the pandemic-crash lows in March 2020. That VWAP also lies well overhead at $92.16 as of today. These VWAPs show that sellers remain in control despite the impressive bear rallies that have repeatedly occurred since the all-time high.
Until the structure changes materially, and that could take a fair amount of time to unfold, the downtrend remains in effect. Bounces should be sold at proper resistance levels preferably with confirmation that price has begun to reverse back lower in the short term.
If readers are interested, SquishTrade may post a shorter-term view that includes key resistance levels where the current bear rally may find strong resistance. These levels could be watched for reversals where price in the short-term rejoins the larger-degree downtrend.
________________________________________
Author's Comments:
(1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view.
(2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades.
(3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success.
(4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMD (NASDAQ: $AMD) Ready To Rocket Higher 🚀Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. operates as a semiconductor company worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Computing and Graphics; and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom. Its products include x86 microprocessors as an accelerated processing unit, chipsets, discrete and integrated graphics processing units (GPUs), data center and professional GPUs, and development services; and server and embedded processors, and semi-custom System-on-Chip (SoC) products, development services, and technology for game consoles. The company provides processors for desktop and notebook personal computers under the AMD Ryzen, AMD Ryzen PRO, Ryzen Threadripper, Ryzen Threadripper PRO, AMD Athlon, AMD Athlon PRO, AMD FX, AMD A-Series, and AMD PRO A-Series processors brands; discrete GPUs for desktop and notebook PCs under the AMD Radeon graphics, AMD Embedded Radeon graphics brands; and professional graphics products under the AMD Radeon Pro and AMD FirePro graphics brands. It also offers Radeon Instinct, Radeon PRO V-series, and AMD Instinct accelerators for servers; chipsets under the AMD trademark; microprocessors for servers under the AMD EPYC; embedded processor solutions under the AMD Athlon, AMD Geode, AMD Ryzen, AMD EPYC, AMD R-Series, and G-Series processors brands; and customer-specific solutions based on AMD CPU, GPU, and multi-media technologies, as well as semi-custom SoC products. It serves original equipment manufacturers, public cloud service providers, original design manufacturers, system integrators, independent distributors, online retailers, and add-in-board manufacturers through its direct sales force, independent distributors, and sales representatives. The company was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
Advanced Micro Devices Analyze!!!😉Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) completed a Double Zigzag correction in Descending channel.
AMD is completing one of the impulsive waves in my resistance zone, and I expect AMD goes down again to the support zone.
Also, Every time AMD has risen slightly above the EMA 111, it has fallen again (this is the fourth time).
Advanced Micro Devices Analyze, Daily Timeframe (Logscale).
🔴Resistance Zone🔴: 100.4$ until 98.3$
🟢Support Zone🟢:85$ until 82.9$
❗️Note❗️: If AMD breaks(valid) the resistance zone, then we can verify the end of the correction.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe
AMD's False Breakout above Short-Term TrendlinePrimary Chart: Down Trendline from November 2021 to Present and Several Anchored VWAPs
Recent False Breakout above Short-Term Trendline
After hitting a new low on September 29, 2022, AMD had a brief a rally off the lows . This led to a brief break above a shorter down trendline from August 4, 2022 peaks (light blue down trendline) Now, AMD looks to have faked out the bulls and bottom pickers again. Before the close, AMD's price sunk all the way back to the trendline, perhaps just below depending on how exactly it is drawn, after seeming to push decisively above it. After hours it sunk well below that trendline again with preliminary earnings results that were well under expectations.
Notice the daily candle from October 6, 2022. Some technicians call this a Pinocchio candle or bar. It has a long upper shadow that pushes above a key level, but the shadow being the only part of the candle above the key level by the close of the price bar.
For another example for purposes of comparison, consider AMC's most recent short squeeze (which was smaller than many others in the series of short squeezes it has seen). Here, AMC formed a extremely large Pinocchio bar that effectively signaled the exhaustion and reversal that ensued. That one worked exactly as expected.
A Pinocchio price bar shows up when the bar breaks temporarily above a level of resistance and then falls back below it. It also can appear when the bar breaks temporarily below a key support level, and then reclaims that level by the close of the bar. Essentially, a Pinocchio bar is a failed breakdown or failed breakout that occurs within a single price bar.
Some basics of Pinocchio bars follow below for those unfamiliar with the term:
Martin Pring, a technical expert, writes that these bars "give a false sense of what is really going on."
Pinocchio bars tend to create bull or bear traps depending on the direction the long upper shadow points.
Failed upside breakouts, such as the one shown here on AMD's chart, lock in unwary bulls with a loss by the close of the bar.
Shorts similarly get stopped when intraday bars pierce well below support and then whipsaw back above that support by the close.
In Martin Pring's technical-analysis reference books, he explains that the "false break" that develops is "indicative of exhaustion since the price cannot hold above the strong resistance reflected by the line ." In short, like the character Pinocchio's nose that grows when he lies, the price move beyond the resistance / support ends up being a false move, and the bigger the false move, the bigger the lie.
Just because price is in a severe downtrend does not mean that prices can behave irrationally. How many sharp and powerful bear rallies have occurred so far in this market, especially in beaten down laggards?
For example, price could go down and retest the lows and then rally up to high $70s. Or it could make new lows, and then rally hard back up to a key Fibonacci level, such as the .382 or .618. Until price can start exceeding major swing highs and lows, and its down trendline, it's not a great candidate for bull-trend trading or investing.
Additional Comments and Considerations
Not long ago, stocks like AMD and NVDA were some of the hottest technology stocks traded in the world. They had become veritable market leaders not just in their innovative technology products but also in price leadership. In terms of relative strength, AMD and NVDA both spent plenty of time at the forefront of one of the most powerful bull markets in history (funded by extra liquidity and easy-money policies of central banks) from 2020-2021. But then the cracks started to appear in what otherwise appeared to be some of the most formidable stocks on the planet. Major indices began to roll over not long afterwards.
AMD has not gone unscathed. Its downtrend is not difficult to see with the clearly demarcated lower highs and lower lows. On the Primary Chart, note the orange down trendline that has contained price since November 2021 peaks. VWAPs confirm the view. The dark blue VWAP is anchored to the all-time high from November 30, 2021. It's hard to imagine that there was quite a lot of liquidity on that day, with a number of buyers paying that price at the very top, at $164.46. It can be a viable strategy to strategically buy stocks that have been hitting new 52-week highs showing extraordinary relative strength, but this time, buying at the all time high didn't work out so well for some.
How many times have traders and investors started eagerly buying the dip in this bear? The chart tells the tale. Quite a few major swing lows, with candles having a nice long lower shadow, appear AMD's YTD chart. Each rally may have made a nice trade for nimble countertrend traders, but for investors hoping they caught the low of a pullback, or even better a multi-year low, disappointment ensued.
AMD's days of heroic market leadership along with NVDA continue to be a distant memory as continues to fall to new lows. Should anyone be a knife catcher and hope to have a multi-bagger in 10 years? That's a question for your financial advisor or your own due diligence if you're fundamentally oriented. But from a technical perspective, a lot has to change with regard to the structure before it's safe to buy. Jesse Livermore had a fantastic adage that applies well to this situation, which was recently published by @InvestMate in an Editor's Pick here on TV:
“Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.”
Credit and thanks to @InvestMate for reminding everyone of these timeless truths to help in trading and understanding markets.
AMD GOOD BUY SETUPEXPALINING MY BUY SETUP ON AMD
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I cover various stocks which can be profitable based on the stock charts and technical indicators. I try my best to explain as detailed as possible but your feedback is also appreciated
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