NVDIA - Expect Sideways Until Bear Puts Expire WorthlessEver since NVDIA went up after its February earnings call, it seems that social media traders have been afflicted with a fetish for trying to short it. There's all sorts of fundamental reasons, they say, such as NVIDIA is trading at blah blah times P/E, AI doesn't actually need chips beyond the initial machine learning phase, and of course the top reason that everything should be bearish: the Federal Reserve isn't pivoting!
None of that matters. One of the biggest pieces of wisdom I can share with you is that fundamentals do not matter in the way that you're led to believe that they matter. If the markets really worked that way, then there would neither be bubbles nor would there be undervalued stocks. If everything algorithmically traded in line with what "it was truly worth" you would have no opportunity at all to make (lose) any money, would feel bored with the computer, and would go outside.
The fundamentals to the market at large right now, including with the recent collapse of regional banks and Silicon Valley Bank, is that everything in this world is revolving around "relationships" that companies, people, organizations, and communities have established with Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party. This especially includes what happened during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic and the world's response to the disease.
Too many people have, for the sake of the economic and recreational benefits that the Chinese Government has offered, imported the CCP's cultural revolution stuff back home. And yet, the CCP under the Jiang Zemin faction is guilty of almost 24 years of persecution against the 100 million practitioners of Falun Gong meditation, which involves the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting as a form of torture (Kilgour-Matas Report).
And the result is a lot of business and social practices have developed under the Party's method that amount to cancers festering in the world's body. If you want to get rid of a cancer, you have to not only cut it out, but get rid of the root cause and the behaviors and habits that give the disease the environment it needs to lump around.
The thing about NVIDIA is that it has a story. Stories matter more than fundamentals in the short term. In the long term, fundamentals matter more than stories. This is because a small group of whales needs a pretext in order to bait in a large number of fish and a moderate amount of sharks to feed on, and this operation is a short to midterm play that revolves around the longer term fundamentals, which cannot be avoided.
NVIDIA's story is that there's a cool Chinese guy with grey hair running the company wearing a leather jacket. He says that he can sell a lot of chips right now and quickly exceed the very worthless crypto mining boom because GPT4 and STABLE DIFFUSION and the AI REVOLUTION need GRAPHICS CARDS more than rich kids need $1,800 graphic cards to be addicted to video games instead of having jobs and girlfriends.
Well, I'm a price action trader. I think the charts show the truth of the markets and their combined understanding and the candles reflect the operation in play. Zoom out, is what they always say:
NVIDIA on the monthly, when it dumped in October, took out a long term low from 2021.
Taking out a low all on its own doesn't mean much, but my friends, when a highcap takes out a big low AND THEN ALSO bounces 74% over the next three months, and instead of heading towards making new lows, goes ahead and makes a new high the next month, why are you shorting something that's going up?
Look at this pattern on the weekly and ask yourself what you really find appealing about buying puts on this besides hearing all the rabble in signal groups and on social media yell about HOW OVERPRICED this stock is and how IT SHOULD GO TO ZERO. IT'S GOING TO ZERO.
And even more so now with NVDIA closing at ~$270, this is the worst time to trade it. You've already missed the boat to go long, and going short has destroyed a lot of accounts.
You're at the apex of an inflection point, and the scenarios on both sides are very simple:
1. If it's bearish, then the MM is short from the early '22 pivot parked under $300, and bears are about to get what they want.
2. But that pivot is right under the $300 psychological level where big short positions now have their stops
3. If NVDIA is truly bullish, it will take out that pivot, sweep $300 and then is likely to retrace
4. But for bears, it doesn't make sense to give them a way out and retrace like that.
5. Thus, the most annoying thing the MM can do is to park price in this $255-275 range for several weeks and kill everyone's put and call premiums while selling the contracts
6. This means no retrace. Instead, when everyone's lost all their money going short, and it doesn't dump and NVDIA does go over $300 in May or June, price doesn't look back and sets a new all time high
7. Bears bamboozled and in disbelief about how a tech stock can set a new ATH during FEDERAL RESERVE RATE HIKES
If you want to make money in trading, you need to put risk management at the top of your priority list.
What's really implied by this is that you stop gambling. The way you stop gambling is by changing your heart and your intentions in trading. You have to stop wanting to get rich. If you try to change your life with gambling then you will, as a result, ruin your life. Literally everyone knows this and yet people still try to make their lives "happy" through gambling.
What you're trying to so is solidly and systematically increase your account on a compounding basis. To do this, you need winning trades and not losing trades. To do this, this means you need less trades, because let's be honest, most of your trades are losers.
In order to achieve all of the above, you need to quit listening to influencers and Discord and Telegram signal groups, delete the Marxist social influencing website Reddit, and start thinking for yourself.
You have to understand that a lot of these people do not trade themselves. They make their money grifting you for subscriptions and from behind the scenes for pushing certain things on their followers. You think from looking at how they talk and how they act and what they say that they're making a lot of money and are very successful, but almost all of them are either total frauds or losing traders.
Stop looking up to "heroes." There are no heroes. There's just you and your life, and you're in a very harsh and adversarial environment where the moral standard is very low and the people around you have very, very poor values. You need to make sure that your moral standard is high and that you have values and ideals that you can stand in front of your grandchildren with and hold your head high.
Also, genuine winning traders are both few and far between, and generally do not carry a high profile. People who have survived in the markets for a while also understand both how easy it is and how painful it is to lose money. They understand how hard money is to get it back once it's been lost. And thus, they aren't out there cowboying around.
You shouldn't listen to what I tell you either, because you need to think for yourself.
If you don't get sober and rational now, then when this world really changes as the Chinese Communist Party falls, a day which is extremely, extremely close, you won't have a chance to make it through the tribulation, because the requirement to pass through is that you have clean hands, a clean heart, and have chosen a bright future for yourself.
AMD
$AMD Daily swing trader order$AMD Daily swing trader order
Sell order for the day: 105.44
Buy order for the day: 86.30
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So this is by far one of the most effective strategies that I’ve traded ever. I used to have a very similar version and some of you may remember it from a few years back… but this just requires one buy order and one sell order every day after close… and as the market dips you’re buying and as it’s rallying you’re selling into the rally…. You don’t have to think of anything else…. Its super simple… in a way it’s a very passive swing trade strategy where you’re always buying the dip and always selling on the way up…
I am not your financial advisor and feel free to follow along to see how it plays out and jump in any time.
I’m tracking only a few of my positions on here and I want to see the success rate after 3 months. I know it works really well already but I want to be able to break it down and see it visually…. I’m visual like that… lol
Also not that there aren’t supposed to fill same day… I have each order set to GTD, and the date is 8 weeks out…. So it just needs to fill within 8 weeks….
It is a completely market neutral strategy so lets see how it weathers and drops and rallies that might be looming in this weird market…
AMD under bearish divergence influence.Advanced Micro Devices - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 92.69 (stop at 98.08)
Posted a Double Top formation.
Bearish divergence can be seen on the daily chart (the chart makes a higher high while the oscillator makes a lower high), often a signal of exhausted bullish momentum, or at least a correction lower.
This is currently an actively traded stock.
In our opinion this stock is overvalued.
A higher correction is expected.
A break of the recent low at 92.87 should result in a further move lower.
The bias is to break to the downside.
Our profit targets will be 79.69 and 77.69
Resistance: 98.00 / 102.43 / 104.59
Support: 95.00 / 92.87 / 89.00
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IntelBetter late than never. NASDAQ:INTC is joining other semiconductor companies in a supposedly bullish run. NASDAQ:NVDA has led the pack, with NASDAQ:AMD joining last week. NYSE:TSM has been on the forefront with Nvidia but it pulled back, as a results it's not among the leaders at the moment, but moving up.
It's now a question of leader versus laggard. I have positions on NASDAQ:NVDA , NYSE:TSM , and NASDAQ:AMD . A swing trade on NASDAQ:INTC shouldn't hurt.
3/30 Watchlist + Notes SPY - Interesting day on SPY. We said yesterday that the markets could realistically go either way, but we were watching more so to the downside due to the failed 2U formed on Monday that was followed by a 2D yesterday, and having that small bearish bias by simply playing what is in front of us vs using other reasons for bias. SPY ended up gapping up premarket and closing green on the day with little to no upside wick. Based on today's movement, I believe that we will see some continuation to the upside tomorrow. With that being said, we still have the gap created in premarket to fill. I think that we will test last weeks high at 402.49 either tomorrow or Friday, but I do think that it will happen at some point sooner rather than later. I am open to playing both sides tomorrow, but it will depend on whether we break today's high and test last weeks high, or if we break today's low and try to fill that gap to the downside. It is worth noting also that we are sitting on the weekly upper trendline Final thoughts: I am forced to have a bullish bias for tomorrow, which I believe to be about 75% valid. I still think there is a chance we fill that downside gap before pushing higher
Watchlist + Bias:
AMD - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
COST - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
PFE - 2-1 Daily: Slightly Bullish
GOOG - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
NFLX - 2-1 Daily: Bullish
JNJ - 2-1 Daily: Slightly Bullish
FDX - 3-1-2U Weekly: Bullish - Today we broke out of the 3-1 weekly setup to the upside. Looking to target 226.06
Main Watch:
JNJ and GOOG
JNJ - Weekly chart is indicating we have hit a low and are looking to reverse to the upside soon. Going into tomorrow, I am hoping to see us continue up to the 154.13 level before hopefully taking out 154.54
GOOG - GOOG has room to both sides. There is a large FVG on both sides as well that relate to my targets for each side. To the downside, we have a daily FVG at yesterdays low of 100.28. To the upside we have a FVG starting at yesterdays high of 103.00, and I also have a target at the 50% retrace of that upside FVG at 103.87. Both of these targets are easily attainable in my opinion for tomorrow depending on which side we break out to. I don't have a bias as to which side id rather play, but I think that it will more so depend on how the markets are moving as a whole tomorrow. Remember, with these 2-1 setups, we are looking to play WITH momentum and not fight it.
Yesterday's Main Watch:
MRNA: (Status:) Loser (Personally Trade?) No
MRNA broke yesterdays high within the first 5 minutes of market open, which is not what we were looking for. We were looking to play downside only, and because of this movement, we did not enter. It is worth noting that both times MRNA broke yesterdays high, it was almost immediately shot back down, which shows that we would have gotten smoked if we tried playing upside. This is a good example of why we look at longer time frames like the weekly and monthly to develop a bias, and then stick to that bias.
Watchlist Stats For The Week:
2/3 on SPY predictions
2/3 on Main Watch Plays
Top Winner: NVDA (75%+)
Personal Stats:
4/6 For The Week:
Overall Green/Red?: Green (Day and Week)
SasanSeifi 💁♂️ AMD/ 1D LONGTERM ⏭ $89/$97 ? ❗❗HI TRADERS ✌The possible scenario of AMD is specified. As you can see, after breaking the long-term downward trend, the trend started to grow up to the range of 89 and then with a slight correction, it was able to grow again from the range of $76.
It is currently trading in the range of $83.24 and is above the 60 EMA. We can expect the price to grow to the range of $89. We have to see how the price will react to the $89 resistance range. If it stabilizes above the range of $89, the next target is the range of $97.
Keep in mind that it is important to maintain the $75 support Zone for the continuation of the uptrend
let's see...
❎ (DYOR)...⚠⚜
WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THIS ANALYSIS? I will be glad to know your idea 🙂✌
IF you like my analysis please LIKE and comment 🙏✌
AMD is approaching resistance (daily chart)AMD, like many semis, has been on a rip lately. However, it appears to be in a resistance zone at a Gann confluence line at 100.13 (like SMH and many other semis), which is also where it turned back earlier. The RSI(9) is overbought. I would see it going back to prior Gann line at 91.23. That line is also near the top of a bullish Ichimoku cloud. Perhaps a buy there, but I would be cautious about buying semis after April, since we may be entering some seasonality.
AMD: ROAD TO $100$AMD has left the descending channel and close above the 50 daily MA. Now with BoC signaling interest rates cut in the next meetings, Fed will certainly not keep the same hawkishness after the positive US economic data too.
Let's see what we get for Q4,2022 earnings report, 31 January 2023. Will update this by then.
SL: below $60 should be fine
TP: $
AMD bullish move? - $AMD continues to push higher, along with the broader tech sector, amid overall market strength.
- AMD broke through its tough resistance at $90 and is currently closing around $97.
- Technical indicators are signaling that it's overbought, so don't be surprised if the stock pulls back. Bulls need to hold AMD above $85-90 to continue its bullish momentum.
- $AMD average price move per day is $2-$6 per day depending on market volatility.
- Below are my price levels for AMD.
Calls: buy above 99.69 sell at 103.69+
Puts: Buy below 94.99 sell at 93.29
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SIDE NOTE:
- make sure that you setup a price alerts on those key level so you wont miss the move.
and always to take your profits as you see one.
- sometimes, the fist 30 minute after of the opening bell is always volatile.
is either you can catch the move there. or wait for an 1 hour for better or cheaper price.
- as always if you have any question feel free to leave me a comment here.
if you're enjoying my ideas please don't forget to follow me or give the idea
a boost or like. thank you see you all soon.
$AMD: Long term trend is up$AMD is a leading chipmaker that provides processors for various applications of generative AI, such as ChatGPT, Bing, and Bard. Generative AI is a technology that can create new content based on existing data, such as text, code, images, and music. ChatGPT is a generative AI model that can write prose, code, and much more. It has been hailed as the most powerful and unpredictable technology of this generation. Generative AI has the potential to revolutionize and expand the creator economy by enabling new forms of expression and innovation. It can also improve efficiency and productivity in various sectors by automating tasks and generating insights. By adopting generative AI, chatgpt can transform the economy with higher efficiency, which allows economic growth despite slowing demographics long term. $AMD benefits from this trend by providing high-performance chips that power generative AI applications and platforms.
$AMD seems ready to rally steadily from here, long term trend is up and we should participate on the upside with low risk entries like this one. Try to not miss out on this one.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
AMD Offers Way to Play the Relief Rally in US EquitiesPrice action in broader US equities—the S&P 500 SP:SPX and the Nasdaq NASDAQ:NDX in particular—has been tricky over the past few months since the October 2022 lows. SPX for example rallied off the 2022 lows into early December 2022 and it staged a false breakout above the bear market's most predictable trendline, the down trendline from all-time highs. The December 13, 2022, FOMC killed that rally, and and price fell back, rapidly retracing the prior rally's gains. Next, price rallied hard again in January 2023 into early February 2023. Price broke above the December 2022 highs in both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 but failed back below that breakout point. This typically would be a bearish signal, and it was—after showing choppy stalling action between 4100 and 4200, SPX's price fell further for nearly the entire month of February 2023. Now, price seems to have found a low and is rallying once again. This does not mean the bear market is over, and this has been analyzed and explained in prior SPX posts .
AMD may be a good way to play the relief rally in US stocks. AMD has been forming a series of higher highs and higher lows since its low on October 13, 2022, which coincided with SPX and NDX's 2022 lows as well.
AMD has shown extraordinary strength despite an ugly macro environment. It rallied 62.98% from October 13, 2022 lows to February 2, 2023 highs. Setting aside the multitude of macro reasons to be bearish (including the ever increasing Fed Funds rate expectations and market-pricing of terminal rates), AMD's price action shows the potential for short-term or intermediate-term upside before weakness strikes equities again at some point. Yes, many reasons exist to be bearish, and SquishTrade is certainly not calling for new all-time highs or a new primary uptrend. Instead, this presents a swing trade opportunity.
AMD faces major technical resistance at around $90 and $100, which is shown by teal-blue rectangles on the Primary Chart (above). Fibonacci resistance also shows confluence with these supply zones on the higher timeframe view.
AMD also formed a trading range for this current consolidation starting mid-February 2023. Today, it broke above the range. Sometimes, breakouts are followed by retests, but the strength shown today across the equity space makes it unclear whether a retest may occur. Use risk management and try not to chase especially with imprudent sizing. This will be important to hold into the close.
Supplementary Chart A: Breakout of Trading Range
The Primary Chart at the top of this post also reveals that AMD broke above a key Fibonacci level today at $80.89. This will be important to hold into the close as well for the bullish view. Just overhead lies the VWAP from the prior swing high in early February 2023. Today, this anchored VWAP lies at $82.03. Be mindful of how price responds to that level. Price could pause and consolidate at that level, or also at the .618 retracement levels.
Price also has formed a bull flag. This does not guarantee a breakout, but it tends to support a bullish case as a consolidation pattern. This is shown on Supplementary Chart A.
Here are the remaining price targets based on Fibonacci and resistance / supply zones:
1. $82.00 (most conservative—VWAP from prior swing high shown on Primary Chart above)
2. $82.43-$83.97 (conservative)
3. $85.48-$89.00 (moderately aggressive)
4. $96.55 - $100.00 (aggressive)
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Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMD - Double Bottom Formation [MIDTERM]AMD has broken through the ceiling of a falling trend channel in the medium long term. This indicates a slower falling rate initially, or the start of a more horizontal development. It also gave positive signal from the double bottom formation at the break up through the resistance at 78. Further rise to 94 or more is signaled. AMD has broken a resistance level in the short term and given a positive signal for the short-term trading range. AMD has broken up through resistance at 84. This predicts a further rise. In case of negative reactions, there will now be support at 84. AMD is overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.