The semiconductors as market baromters!$AMD has been battered and bruised in 2022. The stock is down more than 60% from the highs of last year. Any meaningful bounce in the overall market needs to start from this sector. Watch $AMD and $NVDA as overall barometers of the market. $AMD in particular is quite oversold and may offer a bounce up to $80 if the market gets more constructive during this short trading week. Holding above Friday's low is the first requisite for the active bulls. A break and close below this area will make the overall tape a lot more bearish moving forward.
AMD
$AMD $TSLA $QQQ $NFLX I OptionsSwing WatchlistAMD 1D I AMD is testing support near our trend. We have a bullish divergence on the RSI and earnings coming up. If $70 holds we can see a relief rally into earnings.
TSLA 1D I Attempting to make a higher low on the daily, but still looks bearish below $685. Support at $660 and $625. Resistance near $685 and $710!
QQQ 1D I QQQ is trying to make a higher low. Possible falling wedge pattern on QQQ. Expecting resistance near $290 and support near $265.
NFLX 1D I Netflix has been consolidating right above $160 for almost a month already. It reports earnings on 07/19 and we have a bullish divergence on the RSI!
piling up bad news on semi conductor industryAMD is on a really important zone here. if this breaks, its going to be a disaster for it. we can see 59-60. most of the semi conductor names like AMAT, NVDA or just semi etf SMH are pretty close to 200 weekly moving range. we might see it next week.
MU reported ok numbers for this quarter but their guidance is awful.
• They slashed EPS by 40% and REV by 20% in guidance.
• Operating margins of this quarter are inline but they guided way lower operating margins for next quarter which shows the pressure on their raw materials
and inventory side.
• Operating cash flows for this and next quarter are also a miss but thats not surprising considering their margins going down.
• Also, CEO on call said the demand is weaker for semi’s right now which probably is why semi’s have been getting hit in the last week or so.
The biggest issue i see on MU’s ER is declining mobile sales. They have had y/y declining sales and this might spill over to big names like APPL, QCOM, QRVO and also ad spend companies like APPS, TTD.
If a new leg down starts in the market, chip manufacturers and mobile makers, ad spend and 5G network companies should be on watch.
Also, the demand weakening comment should put a lot of pressure on NVDA and AMD as there will be doubts about them being able to fulfill their guidance with weakening demand. Especially AMD guided way higher last quarter.
TSM put out news friday that majority of their big suppliers are scaling down their chip orders for rest of 2022. this consists of AMD NVDA AAPL cutting from 5-12% of their chips.
please note that this post is not for monday trading, it is intended in general for the next 3-4 months.
$AMD Advanced Micro Devices $AMD has been on a downward spiral printing bearish consolidation patterns after each drop.
The negative earnings report recently didn't help the stock price as you can see it has plummeted to a major support level.
It hasn't shown any signs of reversal yet. If it breaks below $72 it doesn't have much support until $59 area. YIKES!
As most tech stocks, AMD is overvalued in its current price.
The company has initiated a pullback on the consumer PC department (as sales have declined) and acquired a company this year to position growth in AI, apps and robotics.
AMD is well positioned and one of my top tech picks for bear market accumulation, as our world continues to develop in the digital age, AMD is a leader in memory and storage and is modeling change for future growth.
I believe AMD is a solid company that is positioned for new heights.
This is NOT Financial Advice.
Elliott Wave View: Further Downside in AMD ExpectedShort term Elliott Wave view in AMD suggests the decline from 6/6/2022 high is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 6/6/2022 high, wave (1) ended at 79.43 and rally in wave (2) ended at 88.61. Internal subdivision of wave (2) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave A of this zigzag ended at 86.38 as the chart below shows. Pullback in wave B ended at 80.23, and final leg wave C ended at 88.62 which also completed wave (2).
Wave (3) lower is in progress with subdivision as an impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 85.25 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 87.91. The stock extended lower in wave ((iii)) towards 75.48, and rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 78.50. Final leg lower wave ((v)) is expected to complete wave 1, and then the stock should rally in wave 2 to correct cycle from 6/27/2022 high before the decline resumes. As far as pivot at 88.62 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside. Potential target lower is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension from 11/30/2021 high which comes at 53.5 – 68.7 area.
High probabilities of AMD bounce upto 18% soonWe have a very high confluence of support zones, trend lines and bottoming Tail pattern at current levels in AMD which indicate a very high probability of short term reversal potentially upto 95$, which is the gap fill area in our charts. SL is confirmation below 78$
AMD Short term bullish, medium-long term potentially bearishGreat bounce from 92$ supply zone. Potential to test the red resistance line around 100$. Also gap down around 100$ will act like a magnet for price action to fill the gap. Based on the reaction on the red resistance line, we can either confirm the head and shoulders pattern over medium and long term which will be bearish if true.
Disclaimer : Educational idea. Not a financial advice. I have swing positions in AMD on same trade idea at 93$ level.
AMD 24% potential downtrendAMD is at a tipping point with daily volume exhaustion
If there is a break below the last two trading days, shown by the trend line, it may go back down 24% in price
This downtrend may take place within the next three weeks, starting the coming week
Then end of this downtrend may also mark the end of Q2 trading market at the end of June
Good luck and don't forget to protect your capital at all cost.
Best,
AMD: 4 hourNot time to do a detailed write up. But I'll post my 4 hour green count for AMD to show the smaller degree wave count on the 4 hour chart, which is a follow up to my daily chart below.
Lots of confluence around $70. It looks like we need one more low on what appears to be the ending diagonal of green wave v of wave (c) of wave 4. Sure, it could truncate and take off higher. But no confirmed bottom given the lack of a clearly impulsive move higher.
#NotAdvice
#I'mLongAMD
#LooksLikeOneMoreLow
#WavePrinciple
AMD analysis LONG/SHORTAMD analysis.
Stock is currently in a big downtrend.
On a daily and 4 hourly chart is a little bit extended to the downside, which i expect a pullback soon, especially before a long term support.
Pullback could create a nice long opportunities.
The stock with be correlated with the markets direction, so time it right.
Do not enter the stock with full size but enter it in chunks
Example :
1 resistance break : enter 50% of your original position, and add small positions as you grind your way up,
and of course pay yourself first. always cover your risk first.
By managing the trade and the risk, your increase your profit chances and decrease losing or blowing up.
and of course this is only my analysis and it is just for information purposes only.
Feel free to ask any questions.
AMD - Quick analyses Short TermI hope everyone had a great weekend.
AMD. Here is a quick review of a few possibilities and ideas.
I have been tracking this very large ascending channel (black line)
Last Friday, price broke down below the trendline, we can consider a quick retest on smaller time frames (not a strong retest) and price kept on moving lower.
One of my rules to trade breakouts / breakdowns is to wait a full candle close outside a trendline and use that candle's top/bottom as an entry. AMD has not yet done that. (94.30 which would be my entry)
For this week, I will favor the downside as long as price is below this channel.
If you look left, there is some immediate support at around 93.85 (5/12) so this would be the first target. Below that 91.70 and 89.45
If price breaks below 88.40 there is a big chance we test the lows at 82 / 80.
$AMD $TSLA $MSTR $SPY I OptionsSwing WatchlistAMD 4H I AMD was rejected right near its downtrend on the daily. And we now have a bear flag formation on AMD. Support near $92 and $82 if the flag is broken.
TSLA 4H I TSLA has been trending down on the hourly ever since the beginning of April. We have resistance near $710 and $725. Support near $625 if $685 doesn't hold.
MSTR 2H I MSTR is breaking down from a current uptrend. We have resistance near $220 and support near $203 and $188. BTC is looking bearish over the weekend.
SPY 1D I SPY macrotrend remains bearish as we have been unable to see a higher low so far. Expecting support near $380, if it doesn't hold we can see $355!