AMD
Semiconductors at long-term supportWhen looking at a weekly chart, it is easier to see if an asset is in a bullish or bearish trend.
Taking a look a the SOXX, we see we are at a potential place for a bounce.
I chose the 52 exponential-moving average because there are 52 weeks in a year, and it has worked very well in the past.
A close on a weekly basis below this level is the signal to get out. If we can hold though, it would be a strong bull case for a bottom.
AMD PARABOLIC SELL SIGNAL!! SHORT to $106.28This trade is a setup with >80% SUCCESS RATE in my experience. I have come up with this setup and I dont think this is described anywhere else. So I am letting everyone see some of my proprietary trade signals. Its an adaptation of Bollinger Band reversion to the means rule. This rule is designed to show where price has runaway and is WAY OVERVALUED and MUST revert to the means. In this case I use the 39 EMA as the Mean average. That becomes the Target Price of the expected move.
The PARABOLIC SELL signal is setup with Price TOUCHES or GOES BEYOND the outer Bollinger Band which is 2 STD DEV beyond the means. The price MUST reach that outer band a MINIMUM of 5 times. Each count (1-5) MUST not be interrupted by more than ONE candle that does not touch the outer band. In this example AMD Price TOUCHES or GOES BEYOND 6 times in a row with NO interruptions. But, my rule allows for one interruption between each count at a MAXIMUM. If there is MORE than 1 interruption then the count begins again. AFTER the 5th count if price retraces 50% of the last candle height then a SELL signal is initiated.
As you can see on this 3 DAY chart of AMD we have a PARABOLIC SELL signal after a 6 count where price has retraced 50% of that candle.
Next, my rule says to place the SHORT LIMIT order somewhere between the prior candle close and most recent high (usually that same candle high), with a SL just above the most recent high. Target Price is the 39 EMA.
So in this case my SELL LIMIT order is at $151.58 with SL at $157.28. Downside TP = $106.28. This is a 7.95 R Trade. That means that this trade could LOSE almost 8 x and still be break even. This rule is NOT 100% but it is successful >80% in my experience trading it. Also the longer the TF the more relaible the Signal. This is a 3D Chart. It works nearly 100% on Weekly charts. So I would expect about a 90% chance this trade is successful (assuming my Limit Order gets filled)!! (sometimes the order does not fill)
I hope this helps someone learn something. Lets see if it plays out as expected. The last time I described this was MRNA SHORT and SPX SHORT about 1.5 years ago. BOTH trades worked as described. The same setup actually occurred in TSLA yesterday but I failed to see the setup to take that trade.
Trade what you see!!
EURUSD Weekly Analysis and Directional BiasEU has been consolidating for quite a while now but now seems to breakingout to possibly continue it's downward trend have swept buyside liquidity on the Weekly and Daily TFs. The pattern drawn out is that of AMD (Accumulation, Manipulation, DIstribution - ICT's Power Of Three. And so my anticipation is that peice will continue bullish as a retracement into the weekly candle then continue down as structure has been broken to the downside already and this will complete the AMD pattern. So if looking for buys, will do so cautiously.
My AMD Forecast change From Short to Neutral..!AMD has reached the lower border of the Bearish channel and bounced back!
In the past 72 days, AMD has lost 27% of its value, and this process could be extended further..!
Meanwhile, there is a possibility that AMD Approaches the upper border of the channel before going lower!
Good entry will be published if the reversal pattern is confirmed..!
I change the status from short to neutral..!
you can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels.
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Possible scenario if AMD close below 130!AMD closes below 50EMA for the 3 days in a row, for the first time in the past 3 months!
AMD is in a complex correction, this phenomenon has been explained with details in the previous posts!
based on the similarities between the current correction and the previous one, I think it is highly likely that AMD go down to 120 in the next 5-6 weeks!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
*You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!(Based on Option wall data)
**Yellow line Shows Maximum Pain level.
***You can see more details and educational materials by reviewing the previous posts!
AMD Update ! Possible End of Correction ! Long to 189 USD!AMD is still strongly bullish stock. It can reach to 189 or even above 200 targets at the end of usual wave structure !
Why I used the word " USUAL " ? because there are some alternative major and minor valid wave counts. What I propose here is the one I suppose to be the most probable !.
If true! the correction of labeled wave iv (circled) is finished yesterday or we are very close to the end of correction! See? Here there are again two possiblies ! However, there is no much difference between them ! just a minor difference ! Two correction possibilities are shown on the chart and I will explain them later in this publication.
In the next bull run AMD is going to complete the final leg up ( circled wave v) of the wave cycle which labeled as wave 3 around 189 USD . This target is obtained by confluence of 0.618 Projection of circled i-iii waves from base of circled wave iv and 1.618 extension of circled wave iv from top of circled wave iii and also top of parallel channel !
If market choose our predicted path , It will be at our target at the time of next Earning Report ! Top of channel Break out and make a path for eve higher targets and make us to provide a major update? or lower than expectations ER and starting a decline as predicted? Too soon to judge but we certainly follow!
Stochastic is in oversold zone and making a bullish cross which can support our idea well.
Labeled circled wave iv correction can be traced beautifully inside a minor down going channel. Price reacted to base of this channel well and strongly however, there is possibility to hit it one more time to complete the alternate correction scenario !
What are alternative correction scenarios ?
1. First is double zigzag . in this case our proposed correction is already finished and the bull run is started.
2. Second is regular flat correction . In this case one more tiny leg down is expected which can be just a shadow below yesterday low to complete the final wave c structure .
3. Third is triple three correction which is still possible but it is too soon to talk about.
As you see Elliott Practicing is art of dealing with possibilities not certainties ! I will publish an educational idea on the subject soon.
All in All , I am strongly bullish on AMD, any other possibility may deviate from our bullish scenario in short term but in mid term as I previously emphasized all scenarios suggest very high targets.
please do not hesitate to ask any questions if it is needed.
Good luck my friends and wish you considerable profits.
AMD: BULL FLAG ?AMD :
Nice descending/consolidation channel after a sharp rise.
It looks like a bull flag until proven otherwise.
Which means one could buy the test of the lower line around 128 for a potential bounce towards the upper line, and potential further continuation up (if Nasdaq does not collapse). So if I get the price I want, it'll be a swing trade for me.
Manage your risk with a stop loss cuz the the current environment is not risk on.
Trade safe!
QQQ Forecast for the next 2 weeksCorrection in the market usually has complex patterns!
I think from a price action point of view, there is a very good chance we see a bounce in the Tech sector in the next 2 weeks!
Option data analysis:(These data needs to be updated everyday)
Put/Call OI: 2.13 for the next month
Option wall: 370-400
Maximum pain: 385
Forecasts for Giant Tech companies, based on this:
AAPL:
MSFT:
GOOG:
AMZN:
TSLA:
FB:
NVDA:
AMD:
CRM:
NFLX:
ORCL:
SNOW:
TWTR:
PLTR:
You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels.
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
*You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!(Based on Option wall data)
**Yellow line Shows Maximum Pain level.
***You can see more details and educational materials by reviewing the previous posts!
AMD vs AMD (The summation of Mooners and Quants activities)Let's review my AMD analyses:
November 19:
Short:
December 15th:
Long
December 29:
Short
and now Long for 5 days, let's see what will happen after that..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Elliott Wave View: AMD Rally Should FailShort Term Elliott Wave View in AMD suggests the decline from December 28, 2021 peak is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from December 28 high, wave ((1)) ended at 144.85. Wave ((2)) bounce made an irregular flat structure completed at 152.42. Then the stock continued dropping in 5 swings proposing other impulse as wave ((3)). In lesser degree, wave (1) of ((3)) ended at 140.70. Wave ((2)) pullback just bounced to 144.74 then it resumed the drop immediately to 131.77 and completed wave (3). Then wave (4) bounce ended at 137.72, completing the whole impulse with further downside as wave (5) to 125.03 and also wave ((3)).
Near term, we are looking to complete wave ((4)) bounce. We are suggesting a zig zag structure for this purpose, where wave (A) could be done already and we should see a pullback as wave (B) and then a last push higher to complete wave (C) and wave ((4)) as we could in the chart below. After this. we should turn lower again to complete wave ((5)) of the impulse from December 28 high. Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension from November 30, 2021 high which comes at 101.1 – 122.3.
AMD levels to watch going in to 1/10/22NASDAQ:AMD
$AMD - watching for a break over 136.34 or break under 130.77.
Trading under its 50 MA, and its 12/26 EMA
12 EMA just crossed under 26 EMA
Well above its 200 MA (macro uptrend)
1/7/22: BTO/STO option trades on premiums >100k = bullish. Volume on the 130p and 140c.
Lots of OI on the 150c\1 35p - watch for changes in these
Local support at 132.01 - created on Nov 4, tested on Dec 14, confirmed on Jan 7
AMD closed on 1/7 at 132.00
If AMD breaks below 130.77 = consider bearish trades
If AMD breaks above 136.34 = consider bullish trades