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AMD’s Earnings Stumble | A Golden Opportunity for Investors?Post Earnings Dip, Is AMD ready for a 2025 Comeback? Shares of Advanced Micro Devices dropped over 10% after releasing its third quarter FY2024 earnings report, which fell short of investors’ expectations. Although the results were not poor, the market had high hopes given AMD's premium stock valuation. The company did surpass revenue projections, but its non GAAP EPS matched market expectations plus the midpoint of its fourth-quarter revenue forecast slightly missed estimates. In my prior analysis, I upgraded AMD from a sell to a buy after a 20% dip, which realigned market expectations. Since that upgrade, the stock has climbed 15%, outperforming the S&P 500 Index by 9%. The recent earnings-driven decline has brought AMD's stock price close to my previously mentioned level. While the gaming segment saw a sharper decline in revenue in 3Q, the Data Center GPU division continued to exhibit strong growth, boosting overall revenue growth and improving margins. I believe AMD is still in a strong position to further accelerate revenue growth and margin expansion in the fourth quarter and beyond. As a result, I see the post-earnings dip as a buying opportunity and maintain my buy rating on the stock, supported by its anticipated growth phase justifying its premium valuation. For 4Q FY2024, AMD projects 21.6% YoY revenue growth at the midpoint of its guidance, with a $300 million potential variance. This growth is expected to be driven by continued expansion in Data Center GPUs. Although the midpoint guidance is slightly below market consensus, I believe AMD could exceed this number, given its track record. My estimate suggests a 24% YoY revenue increase, or $150 million above the midpoint. 3Q EPS Analysis Shows Margin Pressure AMD has shown consistent margin improvement since 4Q FY2023, though the pace in 3Q didn't meet expectations. EPS aligned with estimates despite revenue exceeding forecasts, indicating margin challenges. Non-GAAP gross margin rose by 50 bps sequentially, while non-GAAP EBIT margin showed strong improvement, rising by 350 bps QoQ. AMD forecasts a 4Q non-GAAP gross margin of 54% and operating expenses of $2.05 billion, driven by a favorable mix from its Data Center segment, which now represents 52% of total revenue. Management noted that gross margins in the Data Center segment are below the company average, focusing on customer needs and market growth for future gains. This contrasts with NVIDIA (NVDA), which reportedly has higher Data Center margins, though specific figures are not disclosed. With a 4Q revenue consensus at $7.65 billion, AMD projects a non-GAAP EBIT margin of 27.2%, suggesting an additional 200 bps sequential increase. The company appears well-positioned for both revenue growth and margin improvement, despite its valuation declining after the recent stock pullback. 4Q EPS Outlook Signals Continued Growth Although 3Q non-GAAP EPS met expectations, AMD’s growth accelerated from 18.1% YoY in 2Q to 32% in 3Q. However, the selloff post-earnings implies that investors anticipated even higher growth. Based on 4Q guidance, I estimate AMD’s non-GAAP EPS at $1.10, marking a 44% YoY increase. AMD's FCF profile also improved, generating $496 million in 3Q, a 13% QoQ increase despite a one-time acquisition-related expense of $123 million. Higher capital expenditures are expected in FY2025 to support MI300 growth and maintain momentum. Market Expectations and Valuation Impacts Before the 10% post 3Q selloff, AMD’s EV/EBITDA TTM was higher than NVIDIA’s, but they are now on par, despite AMD’s margins and growth trailing NVIDIA's. AMD’s non-GAAP EV/EBITDA forward multiple is 46.3x, compared to NVIDIA’s 42.6x, and its forward P/E ratio is 50.4x, 17% above its 5-year average and higher than NVIDIA’s 49.7x. While AMD's premium valuation can be justified given its growth acceleration, NVIDIA’s triple-digit EPS growth is not expected to continue. Moreover, NVIDIA’s gross margin recently declined, reinforcing the case for AMD’s valuation as it expands its growth in FY2025. AMD’s stock has retraced to a 0% YTD return due to margin concerns and underperformance in Gaming and Embedded segments, though the latter is gradually recovering. However, the company’s strong Data Center gains and continued margin expansion indicate a solid growth phase. The recent selloff has recalibrated market expectations, and with ongoing AI-driven demand, AMD’s growth is likely to extend into FY2025, making the pullback an attractive buying opportunity. What you think, Are you Moonish on AMD?
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by moonypto
3
Amd - Break, Retest And New All Time Highs!Amd ( NASDAQ:AMD ) is about to start another +100% rally: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Amd just retested and rejected a major previous horizontal structure and is starting the next major bullish wave towards the upside. Looking at previous cycles and the rising channel pattern, it is quite likely that Amd will follow Nvidia and create new all time highs soon. Levels to watch: $130, $270 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by basictradingtv
4
Earning report Today! Can $AMD breakout the downtrend line? Technically, AMD is closing to the downtrend line again. There was a FAKEOUT three weeks before.So will NASDAQ:AMD truly breakout the downtrend line this time? It will depends on the earnings report today! Here are 3 Things I'm Watching in NASDAQ:AMD 's Earnings on Tuesday 1. MI300 Series: Flagship AI GPU • Their new Instinct MI300 series GPUs are built to compete directly with NASDAQ:NVDA H100 chips, supporting both training and inference for large-scale AI models. The MI300 offers high memory capacity and multi-chip module (MCM) architecture, making it suitable for AI workloads that require massive data processing. Early deployments include partnerships with key cloud providers like NASDAQ:MSFT Azure -- which is leveraging AMD’s GPUs for its AI infrastructure. 2. AI-Powered Accelerated Processing Units (APUs) • Their APUs, which combine CPU and GPU capabilities on a single chip, are designed to handle AI tasks efficiently in edge computing and consumer applications. For instance, AMD’s latest Ryzen AI-powered APUs provide AI acceleration directly in laptops -- aiming to improve tasks like image processing and natural language interactions. 3. Capturing AI Market Share • Their approach is centered around capturing a larger share of the rapidly growing AI semiconductor market, which is projected to surpass $400B by 2030. As AI models become more sophisticated, they require increased computational resources. AMD’s focus on energy efficiency and competitive pricing allows it to offer alternatives to Nvidia, making it more appealing to enterprises managing rising energy costs and budget constraints. Unlike Nvidia, which has historically focused on high-end GPUs, AMD’s diverse product mix, including CPUs, APUs, and data center GPUs, enables it to serve a broader range of AI use cases. This could lead to more consistent revenue growth as AI applications proliferate beyond just data centers -- spreading into edge devices and personal computing.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by xugina78
Advanced Micro Devices | AMD Team RED is READY As with any competitor, a quarterly earnings report from a peer can provide great insight into the market. For Advanced Micro Devices, the Q2'23 earnings report from Intel provides great views on the surging demand for AI chips and a rebound in PC demand crucial for AMD The most immediate signal from Intel beating Q2'23 estimates and guiding up for Q3 is the rebound in PC demand. Most importantly, the inventory correction appears over with OEMs no longer digesting chip inventory.Back in Q3'22, AMD shocked the market by cutting PC revenue estimates by $1 billion. The company quickly went from $2 billion in quarterly CPU sales for PCs to less than $1 billion. Intel still reported Q2 Client Computing revenue was down 12% YoY to $6.8 billion, but the number was up $1.0 billion sequentially. The chip giant guided up Q3 revenue to $13.4 billion, up $0.5 billion sequentially.In Q1'23, AMD reported that client revenues had fallen further to only $739 million. AMD CPU revenues are now far over $1 billion per quarter below the peak levels providing substantial upside potential when the PC market normalizes. Intel discussed a mixed picture for their business in the near term due to AI. The chip giant is seeing a wallet share shift from the sever CPU spend towards AI chips.The move is both good and bad for AMD. The company has the MI300 AI GPU chip hitting the market in Q4 providing a strong competitor to the booming demand for the H100 from Nvidia, but the chip isn't out on the market yet. In the near term, AMD may see some suppressed data center demand while heading into 2024. Ultimately, the company should see upside from AI demand for the MI300 along with the Alveo AI accelerator.On the Q2'23 earnings call, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger suggested the AI pipeline for 2024 had surged to $1 billion: In my formal remarks, we said we now have over $1 billion of pipeline, 6x in the last quarter. Going back a few months, Morgan Stanley had estimated the AI potential for AMD was only $400 million with upside potential to $1.2 billion. The Intel forecasts would suggest the AI potential for AMD is far higher next year when the MI300 is in full-scale production. Nvidia guided up current quarter sales estimates by 50% to over $11 billion. The company suggested data center sales would reach $7+ billion in the quarter. AMD has only seen data center sales reach $1.3 billion in quarterly sales leaving a huge gap from Nvidia. Even Intel still hit $4.0 billion in data center sales during Q2'23, though the amount is down nearly 20% form 2022 levels due in part to losing market share to AMD. The big issue for AMD is whether data center sales growth stalls causing a miss to 2H sales targets while booming AI demand ultimately boosts sales starting in Q1'24, or maybe Q4. The chip company peaked at quarterly sales of $6.6 billion back Q2'22 and the current quarterly analyst estimates aren't very aggressive. A rebound in PC demand to more normalized levels places AMD back at the Q4'23 revenue target of $6.5 billion alone. A PC rebound to normal digestion ($2 billion quarterly run rate) along with higher data center or AI demand leads to vastly higher revenues in 2024. The current analysts aren't even factoring in much growth in the Q2'24 revenue estimate of $6.76 billion. The amount is just 4% upside from Q2'22 despite potentially surging demand from AMD entering the AI GPU space. AMD is set to report earrings after the close on August 1. Investors should focus less on the Q2 numbers or even Q3 guidance and focus more on a return to more normalized revenue levels plus the upside from AI.Our view has long held that AMD has the earnings potential of $5 to $6 and the AI opportunity is all upside to this view. The key investor takeaway is that AMD is still $50 below all time highs while Nvidia has soared over $100 above the late 2021 highs. Investors should use the current weakness in AMD to load up on the stock while leaving some capital to buy any weakness following Q2 earnings due to the potential for near term disappointment leading to long term opportunities.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by moonypto
12
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.) BUY TF D1 TP = 184.94On the D1 chart the trend started on Aug.8 (linear regression channel). There is a high probability of profit taking. Possible take profit level is 184.94 This level, which I have outlined above, is certainly not a “finish” level. But it is the level that has the “highest percentage of hits on target.” Using a trailing stop is also a good idea! Please leave your feedback, your opinion. I am very interested in it. Thank you! Good luck! Regards, WeBelievelnTrading
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by WeBelieveInTrading
Amd - Targeting New All Time Highs! Amd ( NASDAQ:AMD ) is targeting new all time highs: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 This month Amd perfectly retested and already rejected the previous resistance which was turned support after the bullish breakout. Following the overall swings inside of the rising channel formation, I do expect Amd to create new all time highs over the next months. Levels to watch: $250 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by basictradingtv
10
AMD Skyrockets Over 9%, Nvidia Rises: What’s Driving the Surge?Overview Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AMD ) saw its shares soar over 9% in premarket trading on Wednesday, following an impressive second-quarter earnings report that exceeded expectations. The strong performance has also positively impacted rival Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), which experienced a rise in its stock price. Here’s a detailed look at what’s happening and why AMD is grabbing headlines. Record-Breaking Q2 Performance NASDAQ:AMD ’s second-quarter results were stellar, with revenue and earnings surpassing Wall Street's expectations. The highlight was a record surge in data center revenue, which soared to $2.8 billion, marking a 115% year-over-year increase and a 21% sequential growth. This surge was driven by high demand for AMD's Instinct, EPYC, and Ryzen processors. CEO's Optimism Lisa Su, AMD's CEO, expressed confidence in the company’s trajectory, stating, “Our AI business continued accelerating and we are well positioned to deliver strong revenue growth in the second half of the year led by demand for Instinct, EPYC, and Ryzen processors.” This positive outlook has further fueled investor confidence. Strong AI Business Growth A significant contributor to AMD's success has been its AI business. On the earnings call, Su mentioned that leading cloud and enterprise providers expanded the availability of Instinct MI300X solutions, and quarterly revenue for MI300 exceeded $1 billion for the first time. This milestone underscores the robust demand for AMD’s AI and data center products. Impact on Rivals and Sector-Wide Rally The positive sentiment generated by AMD's strong quarterly results has extended to other semiconductor companies, particularly Nvidia. Nvidia shares rose 5.40% to $109.40 in premarket trading, buoyed by the anticipation of its upcoming earnings report on August 28. Qualcomm also experienced gains, as AMD’s success provided a boost to the overall sector. Geopolitical and Sector-Wide Factors The semiconductor sector received additional uplift from reports suggesting potentially less severe U.S. export restrictions on China. According to news sources, new U.S. chip export restrictions might exclude allies like the Netherlands, Japan, and South Korea, which alleviated some concerns in the market. This news, combined with positive earnings, contributed to the rally in semiconductor stocks. Global Semiconductor Rally Shares of global semiconductor firms rallied on Wednesday, boosted by the strong earnings in the sector and favorable geopolitical developments. Samsung’s shares rose significantly after a notable jump in operating profit, and ASML also saw gains following the Reuters report on U.S. export restrictions. AMD Stock Performance NASDAQ:AMD stock, which had been down over 6% year-to-date, climbed 9.40% to $151.45 in premarket trading. If these gains hold, NASDAQ:AMD could erase its year-to-date losses. This strong market reaction reflects the confidence investors have in AMD’s growth trajectory and its ability to capitalize on the burgeoning demand for AI and data center technologies. Conclusion AMD's exceptional second-quarter performance, driven by record data center revenue and robust growth in its AI business, has significantly boosted its stock price and positively impacted the broader semiconductor sector. The appointment of CEO Lisa Su and the company’s strategic focus on high-demand areas like AI and data centers have positioned NASDAQ:AMD for continued success. As the semiconductor industry navigates geopolitical challenges and market fluctuations, AMD's strong fundamentals and growth prospects make it a standout player.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by DEXWireNews
AMD CALL Bought AMD Call Strike $180 Expiry 14 Jun Entry $2.50 Expecting AMD to reach 1st Target $184 2nd Target $193 Analysis as below: Weekly TF: 1. Uptrend -- Above SMA200 Day TF: 1. Structure -- Inverse Head and shoulder (broke out of neckline, now retesting) 2. RSI -- bullish divergence 4hr TF: 1. MA -- Price closed above EMA 25 (blue) 2. Fib R -- Price closed above 0.618 Fib R aka $158 (uptrend in tact) 3. Confirmation candle -- printed green body candle after bouncing off EMA 25 and 0.618. 4. RSI -- not overbought yet/no bearish divergence (More room for upside) Remarks: Price is currently testing the resistance of SMA100(purple) for the 5th time. The frequency of price testing to break SMA100 becoming shorter (Weaker selling pressure) If price is able to close above SMA50(green) and SMA100(purple), expect AMD to rally in no time.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by yylee97
2
AMD Set for Major Processor Launch As it Grabs 33% of CPU MarketAdvance Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ), a leading player in the server CPU market, claims a 33% share. The company is preparing to launch its next-gen "Turin" processors and unveils a GPU roadmap following the MI300 product line. NASDAQ:AMD 's CFO, Jean Hu, highlighted the company's growth in servers, CPUs, and GPUs, highlighting partnerships with Microsoft and strong double-digit growth in server CPUs and desktop/laptop segments. AMD's strategic focus on power efficiency and cost-effectiveness makes it a compelling choice for enterprises facing power and space constraints. Notable clients like American Express, Shell, and STMicroelectronics are transitioning to AMD-based infrastructure. NASDAQ:AMD plans to launch a next-generation AI PC in the second half of the year, potentially refreshing the PC market. The company also sees long-term growth potential in the embedded processor market through synergies with Xilinx. NASDAQ:AMD 's performance in the desktop and laptop markets is also highlighted. Analysts expect NASDAQ:AMD and peers to drive semiconductor industry optimism after their earnings beat, but caution against AMD's MI300 supply constraints, gaming segment weakness, and aggressive pricing from Nvidia Corp. Technical Outlook Advance Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ) stock is up 3.43% on Tuesday's Market day trading. The stock daily price chart depicts a trend reversal from a falling wedge or bullish flag pattern. Advance Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ) stock has a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 61.94 which makes it poise for further growth in the long term.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by DEXWireNews
AMD - Correction And LongsHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of AMD. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: After the massive triangle breakout on AMD in 2016, we saw a rally of more than +7.000% towards the upside. After the recent bear market in December of 2021, where AMD perfectly retested previous structure, we saw another rally of +250%. I am now waiting for a retest of the triangle breakout level mentioned in the analysis and then I will look for even more long setups. -------- I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied. Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. Keep your long term vision.
NASDAQ:AMD
by basictradingtv
9