The next decade belongs to Latin AmericaFor the past decade, decision-makers in major banks and multinational companies have been focusing their attention on one of the hottest "growth frontiers": emerging markets.
During much of the 1980's the prospects in most emerging countries were quite bleak: the debt crisis, inflation and domestic political turbulence.
Then a number of "economic miracles" began to pop up, drawing attention to specifically Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, Eastern Europe and toward the end of the 80's, Latin America.
Latin America struggled with the heavy burdens of the debt crisis, hyperinflation, recession and the transition from authoritarian to democratic governments. Most analysts call the 80's Latin America's "Lost Decade." Most governments in the area came to the realization that they were gradually becoming irrelevant to the investment decisions of major international players and that they would slowly but surely lose ground to Asia and Eastern Europe in the competition for capital and employment opportunities. The region's trade with the rest of the world increased but at a slower pace than in countries at similar stages of their development. Latin America largely remained an exporter of primary goods. In fact, beside the popping off of just particular industry sectors and multinational companies, Latin America never saw a bullrun as a continent.
After lagging behind big players like India and China during the Era of Markets (1989–2019), where there was a remarkable increase in global economic interconnectedness and rapid adoption of digital technologies, now it's time to shine for Latin America and to catch up to OECD economies.
The next decade is expected to be a transformative period for Latin America with many countries experiencing rapid growth and development.
Economic Growth : Latin America's economic growth is expected to continue, driven by a combination of factors such as increased trade, investment, and infrastructure development. The region's large and growing middle class is also driving consumer spending and demand for goods and services.
Regional Integration : Latin America is also expected to strengthen its regional integration, with initiatives such as the Pacific Alliance and the Mercosur bloc aiming to promote trade and cooperation among member states. This will help to increase economic competitiveness and attract foreign investment.
Demographic Dividend : Latin America is experiencing a demographic dividend, with a large and growing population of young people entering the workforce. This will provide a significant boost to economic growth and innovation, as well as help to address social and economic challenges.
Innovation and Technology : Latin America is also expected to become a hub for innovation and technology, with many countries investing in digital infrastructure and innovation hubs. This will help to drive economic growth and create new opportunities for entrepreneurship and job creation.
Emerging countries now represent the clear majority of the world's population. Their growth prospects range from 4 to 5% per year in Latin America, 6 to 7% in East Asia and up to 10% in China. These are typically two to three times the expected growth rates of developed countries.
In all of these countries, growth will invariably entail the expansion of new middle classes, with outsized needs for consumer durables, housing and mobility.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index e.g. captures large and mid cap representation across 5 emerging markets countries in Latin America. This index is one of the most trusted measures of how these stock markets in the region are performing. However, all the constituent countries do not have a proportional representation in the index. The country weights in the MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index are mostly Brazil 46.6%, Mexico 36.51%, Chile 9.79%, Colombia 4.17% and Peru 2.93% with sectors like materials, energy, consumer staples, common services and financials.
Looking at the Index from a technical macro standpoint we can see clearly almost 20 years of an (Wyckoff) accumulation period (with the launch in 1990 probably even longer) and sideways movement resulting in a kind of created bull flag signaling a continuous coming-in of buyers and losing steam of sellers.
Furthermore the monthly RSI is printing higher lows and higher highs which is an indicator for a steady uptrend and positive momentum shift towards the upside.
No doubt, Latin America is gonna flourish the next decade(s) marking a significant transformation, with the region poised to emerge as a major player on the global stage.
America
BTC and 59000Following the sudden price movement in Bitcoin due to the tension between Israel and Iran over the weekend, the resulting market tension provided a buying opportunity below 60K. I had written that this wouldn't sit well with American institutions. Ultimately, as we've reached today with the opening of NY, the price retraced, reaching that level and even dipping below the wick point to clear out liquidity. COINBASE:BTCUSD
Accenture turning down for the worst to $283Head and Shoulders seems to be forming on Accenture.
This pattern started on 11 December 2023, the price headed to a high at $386.00 and right back down again.
Now it has reached some semblance of support but could be forming a right shoulder.
If we see a price break, then it is likely for the market to drop all the way down to $283.
Medium Probability
Price<20
Price>200
Target $283
POSSIBLE PROBLEMS:
Shift in Demand:
There may be a shift in demand within the services offered by Accenture, with clients possibly prioritizing different areas of investment due to changing market conditions
Operational Challenges:
Any operational challenges or inefficiencies within Accenture could also lead to increased costs or reduced profitability, affecting share price
Strategic Investments and Acquisitions:
While Accenture has been active in acquisitions aimed at expanding its capabilities and market reach, the initial costs and integration challenges of these ventures could impact short-term financial performance, affecting investor perspectives
JD.COM showing upside soon to come to $35Inverse Head and SHoulders seems to be forming on the JD.COm
The market has come down from a high of $42 down to $21 since July 2023.
Then there was a solid consolidation and higher lows forming, before the next move.
Now we do have a potential Inv H and S but it's still of a Medium Nature.
Price>20
Price<200
The target is around $35.01 but we need the price to first break up and out of the neckline.
Let's wait and see.
ethereum ETH (MACD)The reason MACD is not so reliable even with blue chip analysis; as seen in the graph the rising movement in the MACD indicator leads the buyer to think the price is going up and at the same time using a measuring stick it had been 50 days since the last price increase, instead of going positive like the MACD and timeline would lead one to think, the price went down really hard. A bad sign for the 100 day moving average is to see the price fall hard like Ethereum did at the 50 day.
TECHNICAL TUESDAY 3/26/24Today may or may not pan out as far as triggering an entry.
As of right now we are hitting 2 out 5 on the checklist which means, NO ENTRY.
Will revisit at 0845.
what will I be looking for?
US Core Durable Goods Orders
US Durable Goods Orders
Why? Because 'actual' less than 'Forecast' is good for precious metals. If this happens at 0830, Ill feel better about entering the buy stop.
Why will I not be selling even if given a signal? Welp Jimothy, because its above water and thats a no-no.
And for the love of sweet baby Jesus, please dont over leverage.
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UPDATE: Nasdaq target 1 reached next one even higher116,956 target reached easily.
This was based off the W Formation and the price breaking above the neckline.
Then we had the run up which surpassed the first target of 16,956 - Text book.
Now the price is heading to the next target at 18,800. This is purely based off a momentum trending strategy.
The bull run is not over until it's over...
So trade cautiously and trade within the trend.
If you're predicting tops, EGO is taking over.
If you're predicting tops, Gambling mentality is lurking.
If you're trading tops - You feel you have something to prove.
Simple.
UPDATE: US 30 trend trading haven to 40,000This is a bit out of my expertise.
THe price broke above the pattern and reached the first target.
Since then it's bneen a trenders market. Simply buying, holding and raising stop losses above in case the trend changes.
They have their systems and strategies, and I'm just waiting for a Breakout pattern to form.
However, the price is above both 20MA and 200MA which makes the bias continued to be bullish.
The next target I can imagine is none other than a psychological level at 40,000.
Then we could see consolidation and range boundedness for a while.
SP500 ready to breakout of the Wedge - Which direction though?There are conflicting signals with the SP500.
Yes it is definitely in a BULL market no doubt about that.
This is defined as a rising trend and with 7>21>200. And the price is above 200MA (main decider).
However, the indicators are showing a potential Sell Divergence as the RSI is making lower highs.
This does seem to be a Rising Wedge but the concern is the low direction of the prior trend.
This is a classic example to play the trade depending on the breakout.
If it breaks up the next target could head to 5,531
If it breaks down, we could see it heading back to the 200MA with a target of 4,415
Which direction are you vouching for?
LL Flooring Revision: Back From The GraveBuilding your new home is exciting, especially when you understand how the process works. It’s understandable that buyers are excited to see their new home built from start to finish says Chip Perschino, senior vice president of construction at Edward Andrew Homes.
“Our homeowners enjoy watching the home come together, from pouring the foundation to framing and watching the home take shape,” he says. “Once the home has drywall, they start to visualize themselves living in the space and how they’ll use it — imagining what furniture goes where and how they’ll entertain friends and family there.
Is this the big bad turn for LVMH?LVMH has had one heck of a run from $39 in 2009 up to $996 in 2023.
But since April 2023, it just has NOT been able to break that $1,000 psychological mark.
And since the beginning of last year, we've seen it form a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern.
Now I am not a total bear yet. We do need the price to break below the neckline before we get all excited about the short.
But until then it's a patience game. We also have other indicators showing potential downside to come including:
Price<200
20>7
RSI<50
Target $412
Let's see how it plays out, cause this could make a change any week now.
$DXY -Ballads of the Dollar *W (11 Consecutive Green Weeks) Its time for a Dollar Story !
(previous lin echart idea 100-105 Range; before & after to the current spot)
The Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) has managed to print 11 Consecutive Green Weekly Candlesticks,
rallying up as much as 8 % from its July/2023 99.580 Low.
A low violating all Technical aspects, which got us into a Short Idea but not
for long before changing bias
(idea's live chart)
TVC:DXY tried to close in Green its 12 Consecutive Candlestick Print, but failed to do so.
However,
during this up-rally time of Dirty Mighty TVC:DXY for the past 11 Weeks,
heavy negatively correlated assets like $EUR/USD and other major FX pair got
slapped on the face mercilessly,
as well so did the US Major Financial Markets and other Indexes and Equities,
but when comparing them with the Fiat Currencies market,
their blood shed was less.
Is about time for The Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) to cool down for a while and correct ?
Fundamentally no,
as fear and troubles looms for a US Recession being just around the corner.
Technically (TA) speaking yes,
it is time for a brief correction,
would be totally fine for someone looking in to longing the Financial Markets or
exchanging their Fiat Dollars for other Major Fiat Currencies.
We can see TVC:DXY on line chart having broken the Range's Ceiling of 100-105,
as well retesting it (so far).
Holding it as Support or finding itself below again facing it as Resistance
shall be proven on upcoming week(s)
Dow Jones Leading the indices? Next target sky highExtended W Formation has formed on Dow Jones.
WHile other indices and stock exchanges are falling or moving sideways, this one is racing up without any shackles.
There's always been a price breakout above the downtrend since Aug 2023.
All in all, it's looking very bullish and is showing upside to come.
Target R35,689
What's interesting is the DOw Jones, SP500 and Nasdaq are normally the leading indices. So could this be a prediction that other indices (including ours) are ready to rally to new HIGHS of the year?
If so, we need to prepare for this possibillity with hedging carefully.
Travelers: On an excursion 🗺️ 🚎The Travelers stock could once again honor its name and undertake a volatile journey. We now locate the stock in the magenta wave (y), which should undercut the support at $157.33 and then bring the superior wave (4) in green to its end. It should be noted that it is also 39% likely that the stock has already established the low of the larger correction with wave alt.(4) and will next break out directly above resistance at $173.47. Following the deposited wave (4) low - whether by primary or alternative means - we expect significant price gains
$GOLD Index - Q3/2023 *3M (Quarterly)
Looking at TVC:GOLD on the 3M(Monthly) Tf(Time-frame)
from an investor perspective view of positioning;
(long-term investing on the yellow stone)
we can see it sitting at no men's land at the current price,
as well Changing Character and Breaking Market Structer (Lower Low) in price action ;
(Lows of Q2)
Despite its Bearish Price Action on *3M ,
States and Central Banks around the World have continued accumulating,
spreading wide their balance sheets in-to TVC:GOLD Reserves .
And so have done many another States,
including 2 out of three Global Superpowers of
China ECONOMICS:CNGRES and Russia ECONOMICS:RUGRES
Dollar General (DG) | Short-term OpportunityHi,
A leading American discount retailer, Dollar General operates over 19,000 stores in 47 states, selling branded and private-label products across a wide variety of categories.
In fiscal 2022, 80% of net sales came from consumables (including paper and cleaning products, packaged and perishable food, tobacco, and health and beauty items), 11% from seasonal merchandise (such as toys, greeting cards, decorations, and gardening supplies), 6% from home products (for example, kitchen supplies, small appliances, and cookware), and 3% from apparel.
Stores average roughly 7,500 square feet, and about 75% of Dollar General locations are in towns of 20,000 or fewer people.
The firm emphasizes value, with most of its items sold at everyday low prices of $5 or less.
Technically speaking it has reached inside an interesting area. A few criteria matching with each other and probably it is worth to take a shot, from the shown box - $90 to $119, should be technically okay.
Criteria are simple:
1. The long trendline
2. All-time Fibo level 62%
3. The round number, psychological number, $100
Target around $140 - $150
Good luck,
Vaido
BAC is a good buy due to termoil in the markets. At the price of <$30 per share, this is a good opportunity to buy some Bank of America stock.
There are major issues with the banking system, mortgage market and bond market.
Due to the system we live in, this will lead to destruction of small banks, and the capital will flow into the large established banks. GS is too expensive so BAC offers some more potential.
I also prefer BAC because they are a little bit more open to Bitcoin.
Lyra showing strong upside to come, but first...W Formation formed on Lyra. And the price broke above the neckline and just shot up.
Now there are candles with Fair Value Gaps, which will need to close.
This will likely cause the price to come down, rebalance with the prices, consolidate and then move up again...
Other indicators show bullish moves for Lyra including:
7>21>200
RSI>50
Target one will be 6.56 USD
$DXY - The Ballads of Dollar (100-105)-The Dollar Index TVC:DXY has experienced lots of tremendous
vertical upside during these past two-three weeks.
From negative economic news of Chinese CCP report ;
to US economy on Sticky Inflation
and persistent outlook of Interest Rates being Hiked again,
seems as investors, smart money and quite of many retail traders are fleeing in to
TVC:DXY given safety.
Meanwhile TA speaking,
TVC:DXY has been broken Resistance Trendline from 114 High after occuring a FAKE-OUT
at the Bottom Support of Range (100.8) level.
Price went to close to the Weekly 200EMA,
which seems to have provided lots of Support for TVC:DXY
by pushing the price higher .
(check the next candelstick version idea)
Upcoming Resistances to watch for TVC:DXY :
-104.707
(Last Lower High + confluencing S/R area)
-105.883 (Lower High from 114)
(aswell being drawn a Range's Ceiling
TRADE SAFE
$DXY - Middle Range Warzone (100-105) - TVC:DXY has had a vertical rally from its fake-out breakdown of Range,
finding Support at 200EMA and got back to the Middle Zone Range S/R of 103 level.
The last idea published when TVC:DXY broke the range to the downside
( TVC:DXY -Headed South 97) played out in the opposite way of forecast expectation.
Eerie similar bars pattern move but on North direction, not South. (press play for bars)
With TVC:DXY currently closing the week at 103.4 level,
looking for short-term weakness next week to correct a bit from the Rally starting
from 99.6 to 103.
Next Resistances to look out for ;
- previous Macro LH @104.7
- Range's Ceiling 105.9
- Strong Resistance level at Macro Fibbonacci taken from 114 High to 100.8 Range Low
(0.618 Golden Zone @ 106.1)
Clearing these upcoming Resistances,
would put TVC:DXY clear bullish territory for the rest of 2023 and 2024.
Trouble times ahead for Financial Markets in this case scenario,
especially when combined with the Chinese Real-Estate Panic that just started on Friday with
Evergrande declaring bankruptcy
TRADE SAFE !
*** Note that this is not Financial Advice .
Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor
before partaking on any Trading Activity based solely on this Idea !