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$AAL EPS Projection = -$2.47 / Falling WedgeI will be looking for $AAL to follow this falling wedge downwards and likely lag till earnings. Earnings may cause more downside. Wall Street Journal EPS Projection: -$1.83 More realistic EPS: -$2.47 I believe revenue projections are heavily understated as shown by Ford. $UAL has quarterly revenues under 10 billion and predicted a revenue loss in march alone at 1.5 billion . $AAL I am betting will have lost more revenue than 1.5 billion in March. If we take into account $UAL projecting losses of 1.5billion in March when their revenue is under 10 billion a quarter it is safe to say that $AAL would lose 1.5 billion in revenue as well, which is generous because they could have lost more. Projected Revenues/Expenses/Net Income/EPS Operating Expense for Q1: 10.157 billion Operating Expenses for January: 3.386 billion Operating Expenses for February: 3.386 billion Operating Expenses for March: 3.386 billion Operating Revenue for Q1: 10.757 billion Operating Revenue for January: 3.585 billion Operating Revenue for February: 3.585 billion Operating Revenue for March if it were a normal month, based on trends: 3.585 billion Non operating expenses: 158 million Net income in January: 200 million Net income in February: 200 million (generous) Expected losses in revenue for March: 1.5 billion Expected Operating revenue for March: 2.085 billion. Net income in March: -1.3billion 200 mill + 200 mill -1.3billion - 158 million = -1.058 billion before taxes No clue how this loss would be taxed, so let's just leave that alone, but this means their real net income after tax will be worse than -1.058 billion -1.058 billion / 428.2million weighted outstanding shares = -$2.47 EPS or worse. This is important because a normal falling wedge like this would break towards the upside, however if earnings are truly this bad I believe there may be more downside.
NASDAQ:AALShort
by bishopknight