Amazon: Slowly getting there 🐌Amazon is still working on its correction - well, we might have to drag the stock to the green target zone between $95.21 and $85.51 since it is currently moving sideways. Once the green wave is fulfilled within the target zone, the trend can turn back North and rise above the resistance line at $117.50. Our alternative scenario with a probability of 40% implies, that the Amazon stock could ignore the green target zone and exceed the $117.50-mark right away.
AMZN
Amazon: Fundamental Analysis + Next TargetIn the last year, the price of Amazon stock has decreased by more than 30%. Following profits that were poorer than experts had anticipated in 2023, the company's shares had a temporary recovery.
However, Amazon's long-term thesis is still compelling, and this could be a terrific opportunity to purchase the company during the current dip. This is due to a number of factors.
The macroeconomic environment may soon improve.
Although it is still too early to say whether the Nasdaq bear market is finished, there does appear to be some hope. Even though interest rates are high right now, inflation is not decreasing. This might persuade the Federal Reserve to loosen its stringent monetary policy without sending the American economy into a downturn, a situation known as "soft landing."
Although Amazon's stock price appears to be benefiting from favorable market factors, the company's recent results for the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, 2022, leave much to be desired. Net sales rose 9% year over year to $149.2 billion thanks to growth in North American e-commerce and cloud computing, which helped offset a significant decline in international e-commerce. Net income fell 98% from $14.3 billion to just $300 million.
That's a very troubling result. But investors should look at the situation in the right context. Amazon's business is cyclical, which means it is very sensitive to changes in macroeconomic conditions -- including inflation and rising interest rates, which can hurt consumer confidence.
And while the global economy may weather the recession, many companies are choosing to behave more cautiously, postponing enterprise cloud migrations or moving to cheaper service levels, resulting in slower Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue growth.
In the long term, e-commerce and cloud computing remain growth opportunities for Amazon. Executives believe public and private enterprises are still in the early stages of moving their computing needs to the cloud.
And in 2023, Amazon plans to bring its e-commerce platform to new markets in Latin America and Africa. The company's scale allows it to achieve cost and network efficiencies to stay ahead of competitors in the industry.
Amazon stock, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 68, doesn't look particularly cheap compared to the S&P 500 average of 22. But investors should keep in mind that, as a cyclical company, its current earnings are unusually low and do not necessarily reflect its long-term earnings potential.
Despite its near-term problems, Amazon remains one of the best bets for long-term e-commerce and cloud computing, and for patient investors, the stock still looks like a buy.
AMZN Price may move up to weekly resistance in coming weeksPrice trading inside 3M resistance zone. However there are still 2 months to go to close the 3M candle. Therefore price can be a bit insensitive towards that resistance and continue to move higher.
However, the weekly resistance above definitely going to pose challenge for the price. This also coincides with the downward trend line the price has been push against since the downward movement in the end of 2021 started.
Amazon AMZN - Manufacturing SupportAmazon is a company I frankly do not like anything about. I feel it's like the North American version of the Chinese Communist Party's Aliexpress and roughly exists to rely on a network of fake reviews to push junk made in the CCP's factories through North America for the purposes of letting the Party keep people employed so they don't rebel and to allow the regime a financial lifeline.
I personally make a point of buying elsewhere under all circumstances and have found no reason to use Amazon. The prices aren't even good anymore.
However, when it comes to trading, I don't care. I care about price action, because I believe that the price action fractal reflects the combined knowledge of all market participants.
If it was a buy and hold kind of market, I would stay away from it, but I think Amazon is actually presenting a major opportunity manufacturing support at the COVID-low double bottom and has produced something you go long on profitably.
In early November, I made a strong call on Amazon amid the price action following the Q3 earnings dump that ended up working out for a ~15% gain.
AMZN Amazon - Realistic Expectations In Both Doom and Gloom
The long opportunity at present is even larger, and is primarily based on the fact that I believe that indexes are set for an 8-10%+ jump before we see the real nightmare of 2023 from a broken global economy unfold before our faces and the happy days never come back.
SPX500 / ES / SPY - Enjoy the Party While It Lasts
The basis for the idea is simple. Markets at large do not seem to want to go down. Amazon ran its November post-earnings dump low and has consolidated above the 2020 COVID hysteria panic dump low.
Additionally, Friday's NFP dump was met with a sharp 5%+ reversal, leading to Amazon closing the week above the $85.88 low. The MMs still have not ran the bottom, which indicates they're long from the COVID low and this point will be saved for future considerations once they're short.
The most obvious target for an upside area for the purposes of selling short is the gap at $105, which the previous bounce most notably, conveniently, and only slightly missed. A run to this area already amounts to 25% gain on a time horizon that I would expect is within the period of now to February FOMC.
But additionally, AMZN has a breakaway gap in the $120s that it can target, should that $105~ gap fill and Amazon acts like META has and not retrace.
However, should a pump not transpire in either Amazon or the indexes in general, the best case scenario for Amazon is $75-65. Should this unfold, it may either take a long time for recovery; It may also never recover.
With any long trade, I have to caution readers that the situation in Mainland China under the Communist Party is very severe, as the world's largest and most important nation has been sacked by Wuhan Pneumonia for the last three years.
The situation is not getting better, it's getting worse.
The amount of people and high ranking Party members who have perished is scary, so much scarier than the little bit that comes out from behind the Great Firewall's censorship system.
Should the flames of the pandemic suddenly accelerate one day and cause the fall of key CCP cadres, up to and including Xi Jinping, you should always remember that 6:00 PM Beijing time is right before the NYSE 7:30 open, and thus all long trades are at risk of a significant and unprecedented gap down.
*Sighs* ... Human beings tend not to believe anything until they can see it. So long as their prejudices believe something is "not possible," they won't even consider it can happen until it starts unfolding before their very eyes.
However, then it's already too late.
The problem with Wuhan Pneumonia is the English-language propaganda machines ("media") will not report the truth of the situation in Mainland China and will help the Party cover up the pestilence until the plague is so serious that the Party collapses and nobody can keep a lid on the real disaster befalling the Central Kingdom.
When that day comes, it will imperil more than your PnL and the state of your portfolio.
It's simply just too critical that before that day comes, you do your part to reject and oppose the Chinese Communist Party and the Marxist-Leninist ideals and systems it has spread throughout the world.
For when that day comes, it will be too late for regret.
Hope for the future lies in the present.
Just your choices in the present. It's a test of your heart and soul.
Amazon - watch 106106 is the magic number for me on AMZN - both daily BB and structural trendline resistance is there and we have steep hidden bearish divergence on the daily charts (yellow lines on price and rsi). AMZN doesn't always get to it's BB but I think this time it will, we'll see. Either way, I think it pulls back from there. 106 can be reached with FOMC reaction or with earnings this week. Good luck!
$QQQ: Quarterly trend expiring...The quarterly timeframe chart had a trend signal that formed when the market broke out of the range that formed before and after the pandemic shock and subsequent lock public health, fiscal and monetary policies impacted equities. The stimulus driven bonanza ended and the market topped as the world knew the Fed would embark in quantitative tightening to normalize policy. Very curiously even perma bears and perma wrong value investors waiting for a dip got bullish, marking interesting contrarian signals for a top in late Nov 2021.
Now that the tides have turned, former winners have become the worst performers and riskiest assets to own long term due to the change in fundamental variables and the huge bubble that formed and is popping right now. The weekly $QQQ chart could flash a big weekly down trend during next week, for that reason I bot a put spread expiring on June 17 to reduce my portfolio's risk and profit, being this bear put spread OTM one of my main bearish plays I got going right now. If price stays below the weekly mode area for the whole week, the signal will confirm and we will see the Nasdaq names slide down dramatically until mid June easily. Longer term, this chart pattern points to a decline lasting well into 2024, and suggesting painful downside can happen in this ETF and associated names.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Amazon back on the track!Amazon - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 105.11 (stop at 98.39)
We have a Gap open at 28/10/2022 from 110.96 to 97.91.
Bullish divergence can be seen on the daily (the chart makes a lower low while the oscillator makes a higher low), often a signal of exhausted bearish momentum, or at least a correction higher.
Prices have reacted from 81.43.
Short term momentum is bullish.
Short term bias has turned positive.
A break of the recent high at 104.87 should result in a further move higher.
Our profit targets will be 121.88 and 125.88
Resistance: 103.50 / 104.87 / 112.00
Support: 101.00 / 97.50 / 91.52
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AMZN Potential for Bullish Continuation | 1st February 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for AMZN is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market.
Looking for a pullback buy entry at 98.68, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 91.54, where the previous swing low is. Take profit will be at 121.31,where the previous swing high is.
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AMZN Potential for Bullish Continuation | 1st February 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for AMZN is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.
Looking for a pullback buy entry at 98.68, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 91.54, where the previous swing low is. Take profit will be at 121.31,where the previous swing high is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Amazon (AMZN) Updates ---> LONGAmazon (AMZN) Trade Updates
Amazon arrives in the volumetric accumulation zone of the last 2 years.
the price reacted in the best way both on the weekly and on the daily,
Waiting for the Earnings, which in 2022 have not been good for the first time in years, even considering the last quarter positive in cash flow, but negative in net profit margin (-20%).
Now, in the case of neutral data, I will certainly evaluate a further entry, having an average price of about $106, I expect to double the exposure.
My target is all-time highs, although volumetrically one could think of an exit at $160
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
✅AMAZON LOCAL SHORT🔥
✅AMAZON will be retesting a resistance level soon
From where I am expecting a bearish reaction
With the price going down but we need
To wait for a reversal pattern to form
Before entering the trade, so that we
Get a higher success probability of the trade
SHORT🔥
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