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AMZN

Will AMZN's Primary Downtrend Break Its Secular Uptrend?Primary Chart: Primary Down Trendline from 2021, Secular Up Trendline from 1997, Long-Term Up TL from 2008 GFC Low, and Fibonacci Retracements from Covid 2020 Low Summary: 1. This post provides a broader view of the technical environment within which AMZN's day-to-day price action takes place. 2. AMZN remains within a primary downtrend (see the parallel channel from the all-time highs). But it remains within a secular uptrend, and has tagged and remains near the secular up trendline from 1997. Such long-term trendlines could be drawn perhaps a bit higher or lower. SquishTrade drew it conservatively as possible from the bearish perspective. If the trendline were moved slightly higher, given its length, such a slight move results in a fairly large change in the current level. This is like adjusting an arrow slightly after it leaves a bow, and over time, a slight adjustment makes a huge difference in the destination. 3. Being within a primary downtrend but nearing a secular uptrend makes trades more tricky perhaps as the uptrend line is neared. But until the primary downtrend structure changes, SquishTrade favors a break of the 1997 up trendline after some messy whipsaws perhaps. The 14-year 2008 upward trendline broke earlier this year, although it was retested several times with some whipsaws as well. 4. A break of the secular up trendline puts Covid lows, coinciding with a Fibonacci levels, in play as a target. These lows and the Fibonacci levels range from $78 to $82. If the downward trendline breaks, SquishTrade forecasts that price will likely reach this range within 2 to 4 months (March 2023 at the latest). 5. A more aggressive target range lies at $64 to $67. 6. In the very short-term, it appears that a bounce is imminent, and this bounce may be sold before it reaches the most recent swing high. But this will be covered in a separate post to be published soon. The Primary Chart shows AMZN's downtrend at the primary degree of trend. This is represented by a parallel channel on a logarithmic chart. A parallel channel on this weekly chart comprises both a down trendline across the material highs and a return line across the material lows. This downtrend broke below the upward TL from the 2008 GFC low. That TL was retested several times after it was broken. Major long-term support and resistance levels are not broken easily, and often require more than one attempt. As the price action around this 2008 trendline illustrates, price may often retest or whipsaw around longer-term trendlines or longer-term levels. In any event, this chart helps to keep AMZN trading in context. In the event a bearish flush takes place, check out the long-term secular uptrend line from 1997. Below is a broader view (zoomed out) of both the 2008 and the 1997 trendlines, combined with the current one-year down trendline from all-time highs: Supplementary Chart A: Monthly Chart of AMZN's Long-Term Trendlines Such long-term trendlines as the 1997 up trendline could be drawn perhaps a bit higher or lower. SquishTrade drew it conservatively as possible from a bearish perspective. If the trendline were moved slightly higher, given its length, such a slight move results in a fairly large change in the current level. This is like adjusting an arrow slightly after it leaves a bow, and over time, a slight adjustment makes a huge difference in the destination. In short, AMZN is trading within a primary downtrend but also nearing a secular uptrend, and this makes trading, investing and forecasting more tricky as the secular uptrend line is neared. But until the primary downtrend structure changes, SquishTrade favors a break of the 1997 secular upward trendline after some messy whipsaws perhaps. The 14-year 2008 upward trendline broke earlier this year, although it was retested several times with some whipsaws as well. A break of the secular up trendline puts Covid lows, coinciding with a Fibonacci levels, in play as a target. These lows and the Fibonacci levels range from $78 to $82. If the downward trendline breaks, SquishTrade forecasts that price will likely reach this range within 2 to 4 months (March 2023 at the latest). A more aggressive target range lies at $64 to $67. RSI on a daily chart shows that lower prices should be expected. Consider that momentum has remained in a downtrend as well for a while: Supplementary Chart B: AMZN's RSI (Daily) in a Downtrend Price could pause at the secular uptrend line, break below and whipsaw back above, or do a series of whipsaws above and below before choosing a direction. A good example of how price can whipsaw above and below a long-term trendline is seen on Apple's chart here . Over the past several weeks, AAPL has whipsawed above and below the line about seven times. That doesn't have to happen every time, but it should not be expected that price will slice through such key trendlines (assuming correctly drawn) like a hot knife through butter with no hesitation and no looking back. In any case, the main argument here is that the primary downtrend must continue to be respected, especially when AMZN remains below the .618 and .50 Fibonacci retracements of its rally from December 2018 lows to November 2021 highs. The .618 retracement lies at $97.98, and the .50 retracement lies at $111.03. So the intermediate term forecast (2-4 months) is for price to continue trending lower to about the March 2020 pandemic lows and perhaps to the Fibonacci 1.00 projection area at $78, acknowledging that this move will not be in a straight line and that downtrends include highs—albeit lower ones at the degree of trend where the downtrend exists. But the secular uptrend from 1997 should be carefully watched. Shorts at this level are higher risk than shorts taken above the level, depending on the trading time frame. This post is not exactly a trade idea, although it does forecast lower prices with some targets over the coming weeks and months. Rather, it attempts to provide a broader view of the technical environment within which AMZN's daily price action occurs. It's not quite as straightforward as the primary downtrend (yellow parallel channel) might suggest. In any event, seeing the longer-term view may help those who may approach AMZN with both short-term and long-term trading and investing plans. Within the next few days, another short-term post will accompany this one with a short-term outlook (several days to a couple weeks). ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by SquishTrade
13
AMZN: Waiting for a Juicy Little BouncePrimary Chart: AMZN's Primary Downtrend with Parallel Channel, Daily 8 and 21 EMAs, Fibonacci Levels Summary: 1. SquishTrade's longer-term view is bearish. In the short-term, prices could bounce to retrace the first wave of decline from the November 15 high at $103.79. 2. Short-term bounce targets are $100. After the bounce reverses lower, downside price targets are $78-$82. 3. The existence of a primary downtrend suggests probabilities favor more weakness ahead despite any bounces that may occur into early December or year end. But the existence of a secular uptrend suggests that prices could behave in a more complex manner, whipsawing around the secular uptrend, or even surprising to the upside for a while given the length, and therefore strength, of this very long term trendline. So be ready for anything. 4. Reacting with flexibility to the levels and the technical patterns is a better approach than blindly relying on a forecast, even if the forecast is well reasoned, and even if it was produced by some sort of expert. SquishTrade is waiting for a juicy little bounce in AMZN. That bounce may help determine whether the corrective rally off the YTD lows is finished. At the outset, SquishTrade holds a longer-term bearish view on AMZN. Please see the technical basis for this bearish view in the chart and post below. This longer-term view is slightly complicated by the fact that the primary trend (over the past year) is on a collision course with a 25-year secular uptrend. Supplementary Chart A In the short-term, an imminent bounce looks possible. A falling wedge pattern, shown below in Supplementary Chart B, typically provides a bullish signal. But if it breaks bearishly, that would be more damaging and bearish, more surprising and unexpected, potentially causing a steeper than normal selloff. This is because the pattern catches market participants off guard by breaking in the opposite direction from what is expected. Supplementary Chart B To determine whether the corrective rally off the YTD low is finished, evaluate any near-term bounces and whether they remain below the November 15 peak at $103.79. Any short positions should be entered with key risk levels defined, and if a short were entered around $99-$102, the November 15 high at $103.79 might be an excellent invalidation point—depending of course on the risk tolearance, overall trading approach, and position size (position size is integrally related to the stop or invalidation level). Here is an intraday chart showing a hypothetical illustration showing one way this bounce could unfold as a short setup: Supplementary Chart C If the bounce reverses underneath the November 15 high and shows confirmation of the next leg down, then a reasonable target lies at the $78-$82 range. This is support at the lower edge of the parallel channel as well as an area with key Fibonacci projection targets and the 25-year secular uptrend (depending when exactly the next leg down occurs, as that 25-year trendline's slope causes the support level to rise over time). If the bounce takes out the November 15 high at $103.79, however, then the corrective rally has not completed. In this case, the corrective bounce off the lows may have further to run before AMZN likely reverses back lower. If the November 15, 2022, highs are taken, consider the upper Fibonacci clusters (the higher yellow circle on the Primary Chart) where price may chose to reverse lower. This level is at $112-$113. In short, SquishTrade favors AMZN to go lower to $78 to $82 within the next couple months. The main forecast is lower over time. The short-term forecast is potentially higher in a bounce first. The bounce could run to upper 90s or even $100 in one scenario. Or the bounce could run to key Fibonacci levels at $112-$113 if the so-called Santa Rally materializes in December 2022. Bold predictions abound on social media for markets and stocks and cryptos. Many like to call the bottom repeatedly as prices continue to fall. Some like to call for much lower lows for years into the future. Both are possible, and it's possible no one is right if price just chops sideways for years. And the reality is that no one can actually predict the future with any certainty. Technical analysis is about knowing the patterns, seeing the levels and reacting to the way price unfolds when it encounters and responds to these patterns / levels. It helps to remain open and flexible to any outcome rather than reliant on a third-party forecast regardless whether its well reasoned and supported by complex cycles or De-Mark signals, and regardless whether every single Elliott Wave has been carefully labeled. Thanks for reading. Let me know what you think too. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by SquishTrade
8
Amazon is bound to go lowerIf there is one company that flourished by government Covid policy, lockdowns, support packages and "free" money, it`s Amazon. Now that interest rates rise, the quantitative easing slows down and loans will be more expensive, we see an overall drop in stock prices, especially in the tech sector which stocks has been manipulated most under central bank policy, in my opinion when looking at all these tech stocks the bottom is far from in. The Amazon chart is showing us very clear where we are going with it`s ascending broadening wedge that has broken out on the downside. Next to all those factors named before, people had more money to spend and more interest in goods during covid lockdowns, there will be less requests for goods this year, throw in an upcoming recession and big warehouse stock caused by the fear of future supply chain problems and we will see prices between $65 / $57 per share.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by thedutchgopher
SPY - kung fu chop the chopIn review. I see a lot of people complaining about "chop" lately. These are not the people to be following in my honest opinion. There is opportunity in all markets it is just a matter of risk management and being able to navigate the choppy waters. Circled some of the opportunity I took in this "Chop" A week in review these are some of the best trading days I have had. Sometimes the easiest trading is done in chop but you have to be patient and let it come to you. Don't let the chop push you off course. Stick to your trade criteria and navigate accordingly. You just need to be patient, post your lookouts, and be ready to sound the alarm to enter the right trade. Set alerts off of great areas of value so you don't have to spend the entire day staring at the screen. Trade safe have fun!
AMEX:SPY
by Verum0
AMZN: Moving into A Buy Zone?The Weekly Chart of AMZN shows that the stock has dropped into a strong support price level with a risk that there could be a Dark Pool Buy Zone here. The share price is now below fundamental values. With a month before AMZN reports earnings, it will be interesting to see how the stock behaves; it will reveal how well AMZN is recovering from the hyper revenues created by the stay-at-home orders and stimulus checks of the pandemic. This is the last quarterly report that will be skewed with the revenues and earnings from the pandemic anomaly. This company MUST provide a dividend soon.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
1
AMZN Potential for Bearish Continuation | 3rd January 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for AMZN is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 85.88, where the previous low is. Stop loss will be at 103.78, where the recent high is. Take profit will be at 69.43, where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion line is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by Rockqet
AMZN, 8d/-26.39%falling cycle -26.39% in 8 days. ================================================================================================================================================================== This data is analyzed by robots. Analyze historical trends based on The Adam Theory of Markets (20 moving averages/60 moving averages/120 moving averages/240 moving averages) and estimate the trend in the next 10 days. The white line is the robot's expected price, and the upper and lower horizontal line stop loss and stop profit prices have no financial basis. The results are for reference only.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by Tonyder
$AMZN Analysis, Key levels, and Targets $AMZN Analysis, Key levels, and Targets So I just want to be transparent about my position and it’s not a big one at all… I have 100 shares at 105… lol… I’ve been selling puts to bring that average down with no avail, but at least I’ve been collecting premium… This is an interesting level because we are at covid lows which seem to be holding… I sold puts again at 82 for next week… I’d love to get shares at 82 to bring my average down to 93.5 Honestly, AMZN will stay on my list for next year… super excited to see how she trades from here…
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
6
Amazon bubble pop pattern on SNAPThe infamous Amazon bubble pop from 1998-2001 shows a 93% draw down that took roughly 658 days to reach an actual bottom from its previous all time high. Following this same bubble pop on social media stocks- nearly all current social media stocks show the same pattern forming. Putting a bottom in around July of 2023 and a price target between 5 and 6 dollars. Not financial advice, but use your own research to find out a good buying opportunity. Follow and share to get more charts like this. Meta, tesla, and apple soon.
NYSE:SNAPShort
by hbayatne
1
AMZN Week ChartThe rejection on AMZN at $83 looks really interesting to me. Each time we hit a major Support area with fear in the markets (show by the red bars below the candle sticks). We have pretty violent reaction the short term trend. To build enough momentum to break through $83 down to $70, I'm looking for a pull back at the levels we're at now to at least $105 (assuming we continue to respect the trendline). Not ignoring the fact that last time were at these levels we did have a consolidation period for about 3 months give or take. I'm looking to give about 8% SL slack, just to account for the wicks. But remember we don't close unless price CLOSES below the SL. Once we come back to test the trendline again I'm riding back down to $70. Please feel free to DM me on here or leave a comment if you have any questions about the analysis. And remember BULLS MAKE MONEY BEARS MAKE MONEY BUT PIGS GET SLAUGHTERED!
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by joeedomain15
AMZN Potential for Bearish Continuation | 27th December 2022Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for AMZN is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 85.88, where the previous low is. Stop loss will be at 103.78, where the recent high is. Take profit will be at 69.43, where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion line is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by Rockqet
1
$TSLA $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT $AAPL $DOGEUSD $NFLX $SNAP $META #NIFTYNASDAQ:TSLA Fair Priced. > 70% down from the ATH Now opportunity to double the money. CMP 125$ Target 250$ Duration < 12M SL 60 RR > 2 time Return > 100% Bet is worth taking the risk! TSLA AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT NFLX SNAP META NIFTY BANKNIFTY V JPM GS ADBE Factors: BULLISH WEDGE BREAKOUT Trend Following Rising Volume with rising Prices. Flag pattern breakout. Pennant Pattern Breakout with Bullish Candle. Retest Successful. Higher Highs & Higher Lows. Broken above RESISTANCE levels Trading at SUPPORT levels Earnings are strong. Bullish Wedge Breakout Risk Return Ratio is healthy. And Rising from Double Bottom Pattern to Flag Pattern forming. If you like my work KINDLY LIKE SHARE & FOLLOW this page for free Stock Recommendations. With 💚 from Rachit Sethia
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Rachit_Sethia
2