AMZN
MELI Engulfing Green Bar Three Line Bearish886.75)MELI is like a hydrid between Shopify and Amazon on the South American markets
Fundarmentally its revenue compared to market cap is more favorable than either of those.
On the weekly chart, MELI double topped to its historical high in February 2021 and September 2021.
It then descended to a pivot bottom in July 22
The chart now shows a large green engulfing candle taking out most or all of the previous
5-15 candles or a so called " Big Ass Candle". This could represent the end of a consolidation period
and the beginning of the resumption of down-trending price action. Last August a similar
engulfing green weekly candle preceded a downtrend.
I have plotted the long-term anchored VWAP and also the 6-month volume profile.
I will take a short swin trade if price drops below the POC line of the volume profile. ( 886.75)
If however, price approaches or crosses the VWAP ( 1060) I will take a long trade.
Given the stock price a 6 month expiration call or put option may be the best trade
method allowing for the taking of multiple contracts and then scaling out type trade
management stratery.
ICT Trading AMZN 1/13/23Had some huge trades today for AMZN, and closed out the week really strong. Finding that true OTE, with good risk and good reward is huge. Able to catch a really nice play today, and overall ended the week on a positive note. Can't ask for anything better than that. Have a great weekend everyone!
AMAZON WITH ITS EXPANDING CHANNEL AND BULLISH BREAKOUT📈The following expending channel confirms a bullish breakout and here we can expect the price to do a bullish reversal with the confirmation spotted where we may revisit the levels close to 120 one more time.
Thanks for visiting my tradingview profile. Hope the chart update helps you out. If you like the content do hit the thumbs up and follow me for future updates. 🙌🏻😎
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Three stocks to watch during the ‘January Effect’ January has been historically a good month for stocks as some investors reenter the market after selling some of their holdings at the end of the year. The bullishness at the start of each year is dubbed the ‘January Effect’.
On January 6, US stocks staged their first big rally of the year, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing 2.13%, the S&P 500 jumped 2.28% and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 2.6%.
It marked the best day for the Dow and the S&P 500 since November 30, 2022, and for the Nasdaq since December 29, 2022.
The rally could also be triggered by investors using their year-end cash bonuses to splurge into risky investments in January. With this in mind, we have rounded up three US stocks to watch in January:
Amazon.com
JP Morgan recently stated that Amazon remains its top internet pick, forecasting that the e-commerce giant will overcome macroeconomic headwinds by 2023. However, Amazon is no exception to the wave of layoffs in the tech space over the past year. The tech behemoth disclosed last week that is laying off 18,000 jobs, more than previously planned.
“Several teams are impacted; however, the majority of role eliminations are in our Amazon Stores and organizations,” Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said in a blog post on January 5.
But it is worth noting that Amazon remains the United States’ second-largest private employer next to Walmart. Amazon’s stock jumped 2.9% on Tuesday and 5.8% on Wednesday.
Tesla
Tesla recently applied to expand its Gigafactory in Texas with a $775.7 million investment, Reuters reported, citing filings with the Texas state department of licensing.
The investment plan comes despite Tesla missing delivery estimates in the fourth quarter of 2022. The company delivered 405,278 electric vehicles in the three months ended December 31, up 40% from a year earlier, but missing Elon Musk’s 50% growth target.
Tesla’s stock is also susceptible to its volatile CEO. The billionaire — who recently made it to the Guinness World Records for suffering the largest loss of personal fortune in history after shedding about $182 billion since November 2021 — has drawn attention from the federal government again after tweeting about disabling driver monitoring. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the issue is now part of a wider investigation into accidents involving at least 14 Tesla vehicles while using the Autopilot driver assist system.
Tesla rose 3.7% on Wednesday after falling by 1.6% on Tuesday.
McDonald's
McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD) is another stock to watch in January after the largest fast-food company in the world announced that it is planning a restructuring that would result in corporate job cuts. The company told employees in a memo that it will “evaluate roles and staffing levels… and there will be difficult discussions and decisions ahead.”
In the quarter ended September 30, 2022, McDonald’s net income fell 8% year over year to $1.98 billion, or $2.68 per share, as revenue slipped 5% to $5.87 billion.
MCD closed up 0.6% on Tuesday but closed flat on Wednesday.
AMZN LONG expectation Instrument: AMZN
Optimum technical indicator: OBV EMA 20
Current signal: LONG
Technical indicator win-rate: 47%
Days for backtesting: 2220
Timeframe for testing: 1D
Forecast day price: 89,8700
Enter point: 90,000
Take-profit: 94,000
Current stop-loss: 86,6913
Multiple for stop-loss strategy ATR(14): 1,1
Average trades per month with optimum technical indicator: 3
Average time for 1 trade with optimum technical indicator: 7
Average profit per 1 trade: 1,76%
Projected annual return w/o leverage: 30,2%
Technical analysis applicability for 3325 technical strategies: 97%
Technical analysis recommendations:
Long: 36%
Short: 59%
Neutral: 5%
Stable long-term profit for FOREX, CRYPTO, Equity based on backtesting optimization algorithm. Instant analysis of 3.2K technical strategies
Amazon Analysis 10.01.2023Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
AAPL - Price Targets & Stop Loss📈 What’s up investors! 📉
Welcome back to another one of
💡“Mike’s Ideas”.💡
I post as I find signals… these signals are based on the personal rules I have built and follow in order to make up what I call the “SST Strategy”. Follow for more ideas in the future!!
I have 4 levels marked and colour coded on the Chart.
These levels are:
⚪ White = Entry Point
🔴 Red = Stop Loss
🟢 Green = 1.2:1 Risk Reward Ratio
🟡 Yellow = 1.5:1 Risk Reward Ratio
🔵 Blue = 2:1 Risk Reward Ratio
👀 So what are we looking at today…!!!
🚨( AAPL ) Apple Inc..🚨
Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. It also sells various related services. In addition, the company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod. Further, it provides AppleCare support and cloud services store services; and operates various platforms, including the App Store that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts. Additionally, the company offers various services, such as Apple Arcade, a game subscription service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations; Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service; Apple TV+, which offers exclusive original content; Apple Card, a co-branded credit card; and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service, as well as licenses its intellectual property. The company serves consumers, and small and mid-sized businesses; and the education, enterprise, and government markets. It distributes third-party applications for its products through the App Store. The company also sells its products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force; and third-party cellular network carriers, wholesalers, retailers, and resellers. Apple Inc. was incorporated in 1977 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.
AMAZON - Strong Again! 📦Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
on WEEKLY: Left Chart
AMZN is sitting around a strong support in green 80.0. For the bulls to take over long-term, we need a break above the blue zone AND upper blue trendline.
Meanwhile, since we are around a support zone, we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes.
🏹on H4: Right Chart
For the bulls to take over, we need a break above the red channel and previous major high in red.
Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, AMZN can still trade lower inside the weekly support.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
AMZN Potential for Bearish Continuation | 9th January 2022Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for AMZN is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 85.88, where the previous swing low is. Stop loss will be at 103.78, slightly above where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 69.43, where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion line is.
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Will AMZN's Primary Downtrend Break Its Secular Uptrend?Primary Chart: Primary Down Trendline from 2021, Secular Up Trendline from 1997, Long-Term Up TL from 2008 GFC Low, and Fibonacci Retracements from Covid 2020 Low
Summary:
1. This post provides a broader view of the technical environment within which AMZN's day-to-day price action takes place.
2. AMZN remains within a primary downtrend (see the parallel channel from the all-time highs). But it remains within a secular uptrend, and has tagged and remains near the secular up trendline from 1997. Such long-term trendlines could be drawn perhaps a bit higher or lower. SquishTrade drew it conservatively as possible from the bearish perspective. If the trendline were moved slightly higher, given its length, such a slight move results in a fairly large change in the current level. This is like adjusting an arrow slightly after it leaves a bow, and over time, a slight adjustment makes a huge difference in the destination.
3. Being within a primary downtrend but nearing a secular uptrend makes trades more tricky perhaps as the uptrend line is neared. But until the primary downtrend structure changes, SquishTrade favors a break of the 1997 up trendline after some messy whipsaws perhaps. The 14-year 2008 upward trendline broke earlier this year, although it was retested several times with some whipsaws as well.
4. A break of the secular up trendline puts Covid lows, coinciding with a Fibonacci levels, in play as a target. These lows and the Fibonacci levels range from $78 to $82. If the downward trendline breaks, SquishTrade forecasts that price will likely reach this range within 2 to 4 months (March 2023 at the latest).
5. A more aggressive target range lies at $64 to $67.
6. In the very short-term, it appears that a bounce is imminent, and this bounce may be sold before it reaches the most recent swing high. But this will be covered in a separate post to be published soon.
The Primary Chart shows AMZN's downtrend at the primary degree of trend. This is represented by a parallel channel on a logarithmic chart. A parallel channel on this weekly chart comprises both a down trendline across the material highs and a return line across the material lows.
This downtrend broke below the upward TL from the 2008 GFC low. That TL was retested several times after it was broken. Major long-term support and resistance levels are not broken easily, and often require more than one attempt. As the price action around this 2008 trendline illustrates, price may often retest or whipsaw around longer-term trendlines or longer-term levels.
In any event, this chart helps to keep AMZN trading in context. In the event a bearish flush takes place, check out the long-term secular uptrend line from 1997. Below is a broader view (zoomed out) of both the 2008 and the 1997 trendlines, combined with the current one-year down trendline from all-time highs:
Supplementary Chart A: Monthly Chart of AMZN's Long-Term Trendlines
Such long-term trendlines as the 1997 up trendline could be drawn perhaps a bit higher or lower. SquishTrade drew it conservatively as possible from a bearish perspective. If the trendline were moved slightly higher, given its length, such a slight move results in a fairly large change in the current level. This is like adjusting an arrow slightly after it leaves a bow, and over time, a slight adjustment makes a huge difference in the destination.
In short, AMZN is trading within a primary downtrend but also nearing a secular uptrend, and this makes trading, investing and forecasting more tricky as the secular uptrend line is neared. But until the primary downtrend structure changes, SquishTrade favors a break of the 1997 secular upward trendline after some messy whipsaws perhaps. The 14-year 2008 upward trendline broke earlier this year, although it was retested several times with some whipsaws as well.
A break of the secular up trendline puts Covid lows, coinciding with a Fibonacci levels, in play as a target. These lows and the Fibonacci levels range from $78 to $82. If the downward trendline breaks, SquishTrade forecasts that price will likely reach this range within 2 to 4 months (March 2023 at the latest). A more aggressive target range lies at $64 to $67. RSI on a daily chart shows that lower prices should be expected. Consider that momentum has remained in a downtrend as well for a while:
Supplementary Chart B: AMZN's RSI (Daily) in a Downtrend
Price could pause at the secular uptrend line, break below and whipsaw back above, or do a series of whipsaws above and below before choosing a direction. A good example of how price can whipsaw above and below a long-term trendline is seen on Apple's chart here . Over the past several weeks, AAPL has whipsawed above and below the line about seven times. That doesn't have to happen every time, but it should not be expected that price will slice through such key trendlines (assuming correctly drawn) like a hot knife through butter with no hesitation and no looking back.
In any case, the main argument here is that the primary downtrend must continue to be respected, especially when AMZN remains below the .618 and .50 Fibonacci retracements of its rally from December 2018 lows to November 2021 highs. The .618 retracement lies at $97.98, and the .50 retracement lies at $111.03. So the intermediate term forecast (2-4 months) is for price to continue trending lower to about the March 2020 pandemic lows and perhaps to the Fibonacci 1.00 projection area at $78, acknowledging that this move will not be in a straight line and that downtrends include highs—albeit lower ones at the degree of trend where the downtrend exists. But the secular uptrend from 1997 should be carefully watched. Shorts at this level are higher risk than shorts taken above the level, depending on the trading time frame.
This post is not exactly a trade idea, although it does forecast lower prices with some targets over the coming weeks and months. Rather, it attempts to provide a broader view of the technical environment within which AMZN's daily price action occurs. It's not quite as straightforward as the primary downtrend (yellow parallel channel) might suggest. In any event, seeing the longer-term view may help those who may approach AMZN with both short-term and long-term trading and investing plans.
Within the next few days, another short-term post will accompany this one with a short-term outlook (several days to a couple weeks).
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMZN: Waiting for a Juicy Little BouncePrimary Chart: AMZN's Primary Downtrend with Parallel Channel, Daily 8 and 21 EMAs, Fibonacci Levels
Summary:
1. SquishTrade's longer-term view is bearish. In the short-term, prices could bounce to retrace the first wave of decline from the November 15 high at $103.79.
2. Short-term bounce targets are $100. After the bounce reverses lower, downside price targets are $78-$82.
3. The existence of a primary downtrend suggests probabilities favor more weakness ahead despite any bounces that may occur into early December or year end. But the existence of a secular uptrend suggests that prices could behave in a more complex manner, whipsawing around the secular uptrend, or even surprising to the upside for a while given the length, and therefore strength, of this very long term trendline. So be ready for anything.
4. Reacting with flexibility to the levels and the technical patterns is a better approach than blindly relying on a forecast, even if the forecast is well reasoned, and even if it was produced by some sort of expert.
SquishTrade is waiting for a juicy little bounce in AMZN. That bounce may help determine whether the corrective rally off the YTD lows is finished.
At the outset, SquishTrade holds a longer-term bearish view on AMZN. Please see the technical basis for this bearish view in the chart and post below. This longer-term view is slightly complicated by the fact that the primary trend (over the past year) is on a collision course with a 25-year secular uptrend.
Supplementary Chart A
In the short-term, an imminent bounce looks possible. A falling wedge pattern, shown below in Supplementary Chart B, typically provides a bullish signal. But if it breaks bearishly, that would be more damaging and bearish, more surprising and unexpected, potentially causing a steeper than normal selloff. This is because the pattern catches market participants off guard by breaking in the opposite direction from what is expected.
Supplementary Chart B
To determine whether the corrective rally off the YTD low is finished, evaluate any near-term bounces and whether they remain below the November 15 peak at $103.79. Any short positions should be entered with key risk levels defined, and if a short were entered around $99-$102, the November 15 high at $103.79 might be an excellent invalidation point—depending of course on the risk tolearance, overall trading approach, and position size (position size is integrally related to the stop or invalidation level). Here is an intraday chart showing a hypothetical illustration showing one way this bounce could unfold as a short setup:
Supplementary Chart C
If the bounce reverses underneath the November 15 high and shows confirmation of the next leg down, then a reasonable target lies at the $78-$82 range. This is support at the lower edge of the parallel channel as well as an area with key Fibonacci projection targets and the 25-year secular uptrend (depending when exactly the next leg down occurs, as that 25-year trendline's slope causes the support level to rise over time).
If the bounce takes out the November 15 high at $103.79, however, then the corrective rally has not completed. In this case, the corrective bounce off the lows may have further to run before AMZN likely reverses back lower. If the November 15, 2022, highs are taken, consider the upper Fibonacci clusters (the higher yellow circle on the Primary Chart) where price may chose to reverse lower. This level is at $112-$113.
In short, SquishTrade favors AMZN to go lower to $78 to $82 within the next couple months. The main forecast is lower over time. The short-term forecast is potentially higher in a bounce first. The bounce could run to upper 90s or even $100 in one scenario. Or the bounce could run to key Fibonacci levels at $112-$113 if the so-called Santa Rally materializes in December 2022.
Bold predictions abound on social media for markets and stocks and cryptos. Many like to call the bottom repeatedly as prices continue to fall. Some like to call for much lower lows for years into the future. Both are possible, and it's possible no one is right if price just chops sideways for years.
And the reality is that no one can actually predict the future with any certainty. Technical analysis is about knowing the patterns, seeing the levels and reacting to the way price unfolds when it encounters and responds to these patterns / levels. It helps to remain open and flexible to any outcome rather than reliant on a third-party forecast regardless whether its well reasoned and supported by complex cycles or De-Mark signals, and regardless whether every single Elliott Wave has been carefully labeled.
Thanks for reading. Let me know what you think too.
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Amazon is bound to go lowerIf there is one company that flourished by government Covid policy, lockdowns, support packages and "free" money, it`s Amazon. Now that interest rates rise, the quantitative easing slows down and loans will be more expensive, we see an overall drop in stock prices, especially in the tech sector which stocks has been manipulated most under central bank policy, in my opinion when looking at all these tech stocks the bottom is far from in.
The Amazon chart is showing us very clear where we are going with it`s ascending broadening wedge that has broken out on the downside. Next to all those factors named before, people had more money to spend and more interest in goods during covid lockdowns, there will be less requests for goods this year, throw in an upcoming recession and big warehouse stock caused by the fear of future supply chain problems and we will see prices between $65 / $57 per share.