AMZN
AMZN: Two scenarios to work with! [UPDATED]Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how AMZN is doing today! I'm updating the key points I mentioned in my previous analysis (link below).
First, in the 1h chart, it failed miserably in breaking our previous resistance at $ 3,169, so, no bull trend here. However, this is not a bear trend as well, as there’s no lower highs/lows. Instead, we see a sideways correction between the two black lines.
From here, we can imagine a few scenarios on AMZN. If it breaks the upper black line, great, it’ll be bullish again, and the $ 3,337.56 would be our next target, as evidenced in the daily chart below.
However, by losing the lower black line, the red line at $ 3,034 would be its next stop. In the worst-case scenario, it could lose this red line and fill the last gap (yellow square).
As we see in the daily chart, the green line is the $ 3,337.56, and it has a reason why it is our target: It is a previous resistance. Since AMZN is doing higher highs/lows in the daily chart, this would be our next stop after doing a new high.
On the other hand, by losing the red line, we see that AMZN would trigger a bearish pivot point, a bearish reversal structure and it would do a lower high/low, frustrating the bullish thesis.
Therefore, we must watch all these key points very closely from here. The moment is decisive on AMZN, and I’ll keep you guys updated on it. In this case, remember to follow me to not miss my future analyses.
Amazon Analysis 17.02.2022Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
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AMZN D1:35% gains PT BULLS 4200USD BUY/HOLD(SL/TP)(REVISED)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview?
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AMZN D1:35% gains PT BULLS 4200USD BUY/HOLD(SL/TP)(REVISED)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: AMZN D1 chart review and outlook
::: accumulation / strong price action
::: BULLS focus on buying LOW
::: revised/updated oultook
::: setup still valid / BUY LOW
::: final TP BULLS is 4000 USD
::: 50%+ upside remains
::: going into Q1 2022 strong chart
::: ACCUMULATION in progress
::: breaking out of range
::: updated/revised outlook
::: TP BULLS is 4 200 USD +35%
::: BUY near range lows (3000/3100 USD)
::: well defined range so BULLS
::: should seek to BUY LOW
::: recommended strategy: BUY LOW 3000/3100 USD
::: TP BULLS is 4000/4200 USD
::: BUY/HOLD setup +35% gains
::: DO NOT expect overnight gains
::: This is stock market
:::Not casino in Macau
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
. N/A
RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
AMZN: You must pay attention to these signs! Scenarios for AMZN.Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how AMZN is doing today!
First, in the 1h chart, we see a bear trend. It is under the 21 ema, doing lower highs/lows. However, the situation is more complex than it looks.
It seems AMZN is trying to react, and if it does, it could break the $ 3,169, which is a clear pivot point. This would trigger a bullish structure on AMZN that could reverse the short-term bearish momentum, following the mid-term momentum in the daily chart:
The pivot point in the 1h chart is today’s high, and today AMZN is doing a bullish candlestick pattern called Piercing Line, a strong bullish reversal pattern, that could make AMZN easily seek the $ 3,270s area again, if triggered.
What’s more this pattern appeared just above the 21 ema in the daily chart, making it a possible reversal pattern. The only thing missing is confirmation – AMZN must break the $ 3,169 in order to trigger both bullish reversal patterns, which are highly correlated.
This situation is quite curious, because when we see dual confirmation in multiple time-frames it usually gives us more confidence. But, what if AMZN fails to trigger this point?
If it resumes the bear trend, the next support would be the gap area at $ 2,884, and it’ll officially reject the bullish structure if it loses today’s low. Or now, we must wait for more confirmation.
I’ll keep you guys updated, so, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
Have a good day.
A sharp increase is expectedAccording to the pattern, stock is in the best entry position and two levels of price increase up to 0.35 and possibly 0.4 are foreseen. Highly recommended for Mid-term.
BITCOIN to DROP to ~ $12500 in ~ 1-2 YEAR. Network Adoption...I know everyone will say this is an outlandish call but I am making it anyway. I FULLY Expected $BTC to bounce at the most recent TL support around $38,400-$40k just as everyone else did. But the signs were there and I wish I saw them earlier that $BTC has Topped for 2022 and will likely not see a bottom until 12-18 months from now. I expect the low to be around $12500 for this Target Price.
WHY?? Glad you asked. When $BTC broke from its major TL support, Horizontal support and below the Weekly EMA 39 I had to reevaluate my Bullishness on $BTC. Now I am LONGTERM Bullish $BTC but have become intermediate term Bearish.
BTC has been following closely the Metcalf's law of Network Adoption that is available everywhere online. I am a firm believer that $BTC and crypto in general is the "Internet of Finance and Banking". So why are we comparing $BTC to $BTC prior 4 year cycles??. Why is everyone comparing $BTC to Stock to Flow model and halving events??
Shouldn't we be comparing it to well established Internet stocks that followed Metcalf's Law like,....AMZN??
Yes you say....well lets look closely at AMZN when it was first trading with a market cap of ~ $6 Billion around the Dot Com Bubble. Everyone was into tech. There were thousands of "dot com" companies some of which survived but most that did not. Sounds a lot like Crypto. We have mainstream media talking about crypto but they are not really sure how it fits in to the real world. Some accept it and others think its ridiculous. The same in the dot com era.
Look at the following charts of BTC and AMZN. Notice any similarities?? BOTH had a long basing structure with a small pop in price toward end of the summer prior to any POP in price. BTC Price pop was probably somewhat effected by the Pandemic. Notice there are basically 3 UPTHRUSTS. They look slightly different but they also look alot alike. See charts for the details on the similarities . The peaks of the 1st UPTHRUST were obviously different in AMZN compared to BTC but otherwise the timing and chart pattern is almost identical. Even the slope of the TL (Yellow Lines) and timing of all the Peaks is eerily similar. What was going on at that time with the Fed?? You guessed it RATE HIKES!! Three to be exact!
But the overall Nasdaq continued to tread higher topping out between March-April 2000 while AMZN started to top out January 2000. People said it had no merit and expected it to die many times. After all AMZN didn't make any money (sound Familiar Peter Schiff?...). AMZN Topped and fell for about 20 months before reaching its "Basing Structure" overhead resistance around $5. That base became the floor.
If we assume that BTC is trading 24/7 unlike AMZN we can reasonably assume the bottom will happen slightly quicker like maybe 14-18 months. The "Basing Structure" prior to BTC POP in price in 2020 had overhead resistance around $12500. AMZN Floated around $5-$14 for most all of 2001 in another "Basing Structure" of sideways chop.
Will history CONTINUE to Repeat??? Tell me what you think and comment below.
Trade what you see...
AMAZON Chart for Comparison
AMZN possible short Amazon as well as other main publicly-traded US stocks have recently been mimicking the movement of US indices: a 15% fall, quick recovery and possible dead cat bounce, which could lead the market move even lower (even below the recent lows). In this environment, short bias can bring many opportunities on which traders can capitalize.
I have already mentioned how Tesla is setting up for a short position and how Apple could too.
For example, a recently signalled short position can be opened on Amazon as it gets rejected by the 50 MA and does not seem to be able to break and hold above its resistance levels (in red). Not only, but Amazon seems to be breaking away in a relatively abrupt manner (-3.59% for week close).
Now, either the whole movement is a minor correction, or a trader could decide to short Amazon below its most recent lows when the price breaks the 66% Fibonacci (blue line) level and a possibility of correction is eliminated. Until that point, a short position should be rather speculative.
Please note that US indices should be kept under control for any forms of collective change in trends. In other words, if the US 500 index changes sentiment, then we can expect Amazon to do the same.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
QQQ and techInside week, high of last week was 370.1 and low was 351.52. Previous week high was 374.36 and a low of 334.15. Looking to see what way we break this upcoming week. A lot of the big names already reported. AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG rally and help push QQQ higher while the weakness of them all FB got destroyed by their poor earnings report. Been seeing a lot of people who didn't like that AMZN beat because of RIVN IPO. The question is do we chop around this week or do we break the inside week in any direction. I am ready to play puts or calls depending on how we open up on Monday.
SOLBTC in Bull Flag - upside PT of 0.023 or $1,587This translates to a PT of nearly $1,500 for 1 SOL token. You can see the flagpole extrapolation in red and then the 2nd half push PT in orange (both align very nicely which suggest we are halfway through our entire flagpole move right now with another half to go).
Last time this happened, SOL moved higher by 724% in 99 days!Just like my last major call in SOL back on August 7th, 2021, here again SOL is at a nexus point where the CC SMA 50 will turn green in the coming weeks. I'm currently projecting that this turns green by beginning of March. Once this occurs, SOL will enter a new impulsive surge higher which will likely be in conjunction with major catalysts such as scaling, mainnet release, NFTs, and DeFi drivers. Star Atlas is a AAA game that is being launched as well on Solana's ecosystem so I expect there to be renewed optimism in the coming weeks as more updates are released. Solana is without a fact the most bullish network atm due to its scaling potential that is happening in front of our eyes. Having the backing of SBF helps quite a lot as well.
See my prior major call on SOL below to see how well that played out. Accumulating here prior to the CC SMA 50 turning green would allow you to make higher returns, but of course you can wait until the signal is confirmed later this month or in early March.
AMAZON | FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + LONG SETUP IDEA ⚡️ MUST READ!Judging by the market's reaction to Amazon's Q4 report, you'd think the e-commerce and cloud computing giant was a success. In a sense, it did. The company's stake in electric car company Rivian generated nearly $12 billion in revenue; Amazon Web Services (AWS) continues to operate at full capacity, growing rapidly and generating incredible profits; and the announced Amazon Prime price hike will generate billions in additional revenue.
All of this contributed to Amazon stock rising more than 10 percent on Friday, a big move for a company with a trillion in revenue. This rally after the earnings release has undone some of the damage done by the collapse in growth stocks over the past few months, though the stock is still down about 15% from recent highs.
On Friday, the market focused on the positives of Amazon's report, but there were also plenty of bad points that investors shouldn't ignore.
Amazon's Q4 sales were up just 9%, which can't be called a stunning result. The retail business in North America, by far the largest segment, matched that overall growth rate. AWS grew much faster, by 40%, while international segment sales were down 1%.
To be fair, the comparison was not an easy one. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Amazon's sales were up 38%, which is certainly a challenge. Consumers increased their spending on e-commerce at the beginning of the pandemic, but that tailwind seems to have disappeared. With stiff competition from traditional retailers like Walmart, Target, and Best Buy, as well as e-commerce companies like Chewy and Wayfair, slow growth for Amazon may be the new normal.
Along with slowing growth in its retail segments, the company's profits have fallen sharply. The North American segment had an operating loss of $206 million, down from nearly $3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020, and the international segment's profit fell to $1.63 billion from $363 million.
AWS absorbed some of the losses, but overall operating profit still fell 50% year-over-year. The company cited more than $4 billion in expenses related to higher wages, higher prices, lower productivity, and order fulfillment network outages during the analyst call.
Amazon currently employs more than 1.6 million people, not counting the contractors who keep the delivery network running. The company is not known for having the best working conditions in its warehouses, so a competitive labor market could lead to serious employee retention problems. This could lead to further cost increases, slower deliveries, and upset customers.
The Prime price increase will help offset some of these inflationary factors and will be a test of Amazon's pricing strength in an increasingly competitive e-commerce market.
Amazon is focused on generating free cash flow. The company generated $31 billion in free cash flow in 2020, helped by a surge in demand caused by the pandemic.
The situation has changed. Over the past 12 months, Amazon's free cash flow has been negative at $9 billion. Even worse, free cash flow, which takes into account equipment acquired through leasing, was negative at $14 billion, compared to positive at $21 billion a year ago. That's a $35 billion difference.
This can be attributed in part to the fact that Amazon is investing more in its business. Total capital spending, including finance leases, will be about $60 billion in 2021, up from $44 billion in 2020. This increase in spending explains less than half of the sharp drop in free cash flow.
The rest is the result of a strong decline in operating cash flow. Last year, operating cash flow was $46 billion, down as much as $20 billion from 2020.
The first quarter of this year won't be any better. Amazon expects revenue growth of just 3%-8% year-over-year. Operating income will be between $3 billion and $6 billion, down $8.9 billion from the first quarter of 2021.
The operating profit forecast is worse than it looks. Earlier this year, Amazon increased the useful life of its servers and networking equipment, which will result in a $1 billion reduction in first-quarter depreciation expense. Even with this $1 billion benefit, Amazon probably won't have the same profits as it did last year.
It is important to remember that Amazon is an expensive stock. Based on net income for 2021, excluding profits from Rivian, Amazon is trading at about 75 times earnings. The company certainly has some serious competitive advantages, but the growth rate is now in the single digits, and profits excluding Rivian are plummeting.
Of course, one should never underestimate Amazon. But right now the picture is not looking good.
DOT Diem fundamentals dissolve, more bullish on SOL nowTo keep this short, it's now very public knowledge that Diem is no longer being pursued by FB and therefore the fundamentals have decreased for DOT. I still remain bullish on DOT but this is likely going to play out over a longer period of time. I would diversify into market leaders like SOL in the meantime and get some exposure to this top project as I've spoken to some developers and they speak about the ease of use with Solana's programming language which is a game changer in terms of onboarding legacy developers into the crypto world.
Here's my latest post on SOL: