Analog Devices Surges 10% as it Beat Profit and Sales EstimatesAnalog Devices ( NASDAQ:ADI ), a semiconductor manufacturer, has reported better-than-expected results and guidance as inventory backlogs eased. The company's fiscal second-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.40 beat estimates, while revenue slumped 34% year-over-year to $2.16 billion, but that was above forecasts. CEO Vincent Roche explained that revenue exceeded the midpoint of its outlook despite continued macro and inventory headwinds. However, he pointed out that inventory rationalization across the broad customer base is stabilizing, clearing a path for the company to return to sequential growth in the third quarter.
Analog Devices ( NASDAQ:ADI ) sees current-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.50, plus or minus $0.10, with revenue of $2.27 billion, plus or minus $100 million. Both midpoints were higher than anticipated.
Analog Devices ( NASDAQ:ADI ) forecasts robust quarterly revenue on chip market recovery, thanks to a rise in demand for its industrial chips after a prolonged slump. The upbeat forecast signals that clients are placing new orders amid signs of an easing economy. The company expects revenue of $2.27 billion, plus or minus $100 million, for the third quarter, compared with estimates of $2.16 billion, according to LSEG data.
Analog Devices ( NASDAQ:ADI ) also touted its artificial intelligence efforts and expects to drive "record revenues" for its chip testing segment in the near to mid-term due to strong demand for high-bandwidth memory chips. The company's results follow a strong forecast from chipmaker Texas Instruments, fanning optimism for a rise in analog chip demand.
Technical Outlook
Analog Devices ( NASDAQ:ADI ) stock is currently overbought with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 82. The stock is up 10.87% as of the time of writing and up 18% since the start of 2024.
Analog
$IWM AnalogIn this chart we analyze the relationship between the Small Cap iShares ETF and an analog of the 2002-2003 price action. From our view, we can see that we are clearly holding a similar pattern from back in the early part of that decade. This happened to be after a recession as well where the value/growth rotations were just as if not stronger than they are today. Something to keep in mind.
In short, we are bullish on the small cap sector from here. The risk reward is clear vs the recent range lows on the daily chart for a sustained move over the coming months higher.
Bitcoin Re-Accumulation After Decline S&P 500 ANALOGHere you can see a great analog for the Re-Accumulation After Decline argument for Bitcoin VS the Distribution structure.
You can see how S&P became over heated before suffering a sharp reaction and forming a new accumulation range before continuing on its bull run.
Will it happen again for S&P500 Future ES using analog from 20088 Apr 2020 recap - S&P500 e-mini futures CME_MINI:ES1! had a strong rally up and closed near the high around 2750. The strong price action has totally ignored the bearish tone set in 7 Apr 2020, where ES was up more than more than 3% but closed down on the day.
In 2008, similar situation had happened a few times, such as on 3, 14, 17 Oct 2008. Every times after the price rejection, ES started a downswing. If we pay close attention to 17-18 Oct 2008, it is similar to ES current situation (7-8 Apr 2020) because the rejection bar was followed by a strong demand bar both in 2008 and 2020. Yet, a down swing was followed in 2008 after the strong demand bar, as shown in the chart as illustrated.
Historical analog is good for reference and keep us to anticipate potential scenarios. However, always trade according to the charts.
So far, ES does not show any emergence of supply., which is a bullish sign. Could it grind higher to stretch to around 2800?
Bias - neutral. A range bound between 2630-2750 can be expected. A break below 2600-2630 will validate the up thrust scenario. A break above 2750 should see a test of 2800.
Key levels - Resistance: 2750-2780 Support: 2700, 2600-2630.
Potential intraday setup - A short entry is preferred. Pay close attention on how the price interacts with the key levels, swing high, swing low, neckline, etc...
An Interesting BTC Fractal I Will Be Paying Attention To I recently read a comparison made by Tuur Demeester in which he described Bitcoin, in its current state, as essentially shaking off the barnacles of zombie ICOs, similar to how Amazon had a boom and bust during the tech bubble only to arise from the shadows of Pets.com and other vaporware to become the trillion dollar company it is today. If one subscribes to a long term BTC bull thesis (as I do) - this fractal will perfectly fit your narrative. All jokes aside, this analogue is fascinating, and it will be truly interesting to see how the reaccumulation phase plays out and whether or not the fractal shall continue to hold. Cheers and happy trading!
DXY another medium term leg up ahead?Good analog here re '99-02 suggests the USD is may not yet be done despite the hubris around Gold and Silver. We are at a key inflection point, upsloper needs to hold for USD bull market to persist and if it does it is likely the market tries to test 2001-02 highs.
“History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes,” Mark Twain
Bitcoin daily pitchfork fractalThe comparisons to 2013-2015 bear market have been made ever since the dec-feb collapse and while premature, lining up pitchfork slopes & yearly avg gives the fractal even more accuracy. And the price & RSI we're trading at now is key.
The driving factors for the collapse (bear market) throughout 2013-2015 were far more serious than anything now and although the fractals may signal a similar pattern lower post yearly average break, the driving fundamentals may not be present. Mt.gox bankruptcy and silk road closure annihilated the demand for bitcoin, and unless a top 5 exchange is successfully toppled that demand will not be evaporated.
OIL analogBeen following oils upside progress by noting how it moved during the post financial crash lows in 09. Specifically this current uptrend alongside the price action of 24th may 2010 -> 25th april 2011 (overlayed on chart). Following this analog, we've found resistance at 0.5 retrace of 2014 highs -> 2016 lows, and can expect a retest of the rising wedge we broke from at the end of 2017 and then potentially testing the .382 & .236 fib retraces off this upside move.