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Analogy

Gold, Daily, The last decline before the increase?On the XAUUSD chart, a clear SMC setup is seen. After the liquidity grab, the price has reacted to the weekly daily-refined supply zone with a Head and Shoulders formation (4H). To complete this formation, the price might bounce off the 4-hour flip zone. Drops, breaking through the support and making the next break of structure, can stop at the nearest demand zone and, following the 2008 analogy, start increases in the gold price. I will publish an idea about this analogy, as I did with the S&P 500 index and VIX. Check out my related ideas as well.
TVC:GOLDShort
by MichaelFX_ICT
Volatility S&P 500 Index, Daily, The Upcoming Market Crash?I think that in mid-November we may be dealing with a stock market crash. Let's take a look at the volatility index of the S&P 500 stock index. The analogy of 2008 has been fulfilling almost perfectly so far. If it continues, the price should completely fill the gap and rebound from the green zone. If we break the red zone, I would expect a rebound from the newly created flip zone (gray box on the chart) and a dynamic increase in volatility. Volatility means big drops or big gains. In the current macroeconomic situation, it is difficult to think about dynamic increases, especially this winter. The potential trade on VIX to rebound from the green zone and break through the peaks from March 2020 has as much as a 20:1 risk-reward ratio (SL under the zone). I am sure there will be even more great opportunities for this scenario on shorting, i.e., SP500, Nasdaq 100 or DAX.
TVC:VIXLong
by MichaelFX_ICT
6
S&P 500, Daily, 2008 Analogy - before the worst?I have been considering the 2008 analogy for some time. I tried to find an important price resistance and I found it. In 2008, the worst drops started at 1313 and it was a fibo retracement of about 47,5%. Today, a similarly important level, in my opinion, is the retracement of 3939, which is also about 47,5% fibo. Of course, I don't expect a perfect rebound of the price from that point, as it was with 1313 in 2008. It is also important to look at the VIX index (related idea linked) and the lower time frame structure (by the analogy, there should be no big drops, but confirmation in the medium and short-term structure - 1H/15m). If the swing low is broken, I will be looking at the momentum in order to predict the bottom. Personally, I think the March 2020 low will be broken. In 2008, we also had a break of the bear market low after the dotcom bubble. Of such fundamental matters that indicate the further course of the bear market, I can include, for example: - inverted yield curves , - a huge divergence between T10Y2Y and T10Y3M before the curve is inverted, - a divergence between Real and Nominal Disposable Personal Income (Nominal is rising, Real is in decline), - a divergence between Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade (is rising) and Advance Real Retail and Food Services Sales (in decline) since March 2021, - the recessionary PMI. And that is all I wanted to convey to you. Not investment advice, only my own opinion.
SP:SPXShort
by MichaelFX_ICT
4
Copper, Weekly (log), The 2008 AnalogyLet's see what the 2008 analogy says about the next thing. Currently, we can observe a similarity in many charts, e.g., the S&P 500 index, VIX, gold, and USOIL / UKOIL, to what was happening in 2008. Copper is no exception, and the analogy indicates copper's price decline. If the price follows it perfectly, the declines may end in the second zone. But I do not expect such accuracy; there is also the closer (first) zone, which can bring it on. I will write no more about it, why it may happen. Check out the related ideas.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERShort
by MichaelFX_ICT
WTI Crude Oil, Weekly (log), The 2008 AnalogyThe actual USOIL weekly chart is confusingly similar to the 2008 daily chart. By analogy, the oil price should go south even to twenty-something dollars. The current economic situation confirms it, as the leading economic indicator (LEI) announces a recession in the near future. Also, moving average analysis confirms it. I matched the closest smoothing moving average (53), which was support after by candle closes (two taps) a year ago. And now, the same moving average was a strong resistance also with two taps by candle closes/opens.
TVC:USOILShort
by MichaelFX_ICT
S&P 500 / M2 Money Stock, George Tritch's CycleNow we have a period of high inflation that, in my opinion, will continue for some time. Even if it falls (as the M2 money stock decline points out), we may have a second reversal wave of inflation during the revival after the current bear market. For this reason, a lot of people are waiting for a pivot, which, according to them, will mark the low. This statement is wrong. After pivots, we usually observe the biggest drops on the S&P 500. Similarly, with yield curves - they are inverted, which is a very strong bearish signal. At this point, I invite you to look at the related ideas about the 2008 analogy. The above chart shows the value of the S&P 500 index divided by the M2 Money Stock, which in general presents the situation on the money market - the amount of money in the economy. So we can see how the share prices relate to it. In addition, I added George Tritch's cycle (arrows), which has been assigned the most lows and highs in the past. Shaded arrows indicate less important turning points for this chart. The timing is more important than my projected path; it is only for visualization. The bottom of the current bear market should be in 2023. The next bull market with a high around 2026 should be less generous than the last. The major low of the actual cycle should be around 2032.   And that's all. Enjoy.
SP:SPX
by MichaelFX_ICT
NVIDIA Corp., Monthly, The Cisco Analogy and demand zonesAs with Tesla stocks, such increases were unsustainable. In my opinion, Nvidia is a very qualitative company, so after potential drops under the Cisco analogy ( CSCO ) from the dotcom bubble, it may be worth buying. Cisco ( CSCO ) during the dotcom bubble grew by 1500% from March 1997 to March 2000 (35 monthly bars) and then decreased by 90.10% (in 31 monthly bars). According to the analogy, the low would form in 2024 (March - August), but it may also be in about April '23, when, referring to the bearish analogies on the S&P 500 , the bear market may end. Bouncing off the green "buy" line will be a very strong bullish signal for me, but it needs to be aware of the price action after entering the first demand zone . The post-crisis price rebound should be over 150% in just over 440 days.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by MichaelFX_ICT