Alikze → #ILV | Waiting for pullbackIn the daily time, it is moving in an upward channel, and if it faces a correction in the specified area, you can wait for a pullback in the green box to continue the path to the next supply area. Note that if the red box area is broken, you can enter a buy position after breaking and confirming the pullback.
🟩Sup: 75$
⛳️Tp 1:100$
⛳️ Tp2 : 125$
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Analsis
#LPT → Moving to the roof of the corner patternIn time h4, it is moving in a descending channel, which is accompanied by demand in the middle of the channel, which, while creating a corner pattern, has the ability to grow up to the specified areas, which, in case of negative reaction, has the ability to correct up to the liquidity area.
Note: If 7.8 is broken above, the scenario will be reversed.
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Cryptocurrency Precision Analysis: Bitcoin Target Projections
Latest analysis of Bitcoin's price trajectory, we're setting our sights on a potential moonshot to the $37,000 range, with wicks that could aim even higher, possibly reaching beyond $40,000. Like rockets fueled by Fibonacci-based technical levels, our outlook aligns with the prevailing bullish sentiment that's been rocketing through the crypto-verse.
Yet, fellow traders, don't get caught up in the moonboy hype or the temptation of "getting rekt" in the throes of an unbridled bull market. In this financial cosmos, where bulls and bears dance like celestial bodies, we've identified what we cheekily call "targets for failure." But let's be clear, they're not so much about making you fail as they are about steering you clear of the treacherous asteroid fields.
Just like you'd look both ways before crossing the street, in the wild, wild world of crypto trading, these "failure targets" should serve as your trusty rearview mirrors, reminding you to navigate the markets with precision and caution. So, keep your rockets grounded until you've crunched the numbers, because this spacewalk is more about careful risk management and strategic planning than shooting for the moon.
With that said, let's keep our eyes on the stars and our portfolios on solid ground. Happy trading, fellow astronauts! 🚀🌕💰
""look both ways, when crossing the street.""
"Targets for failure. Not really failure though....
"Just making you fail"
INDEX:BTCUSD
Audcad likely more downside
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Bitcoin’s Predicted Moves and PriceBitcoin’s Bullish Pennant — The Symmetrical Triangle
To understand the relevance and importance of the triangle pattern that exists on Bitcoin’s chart, we need to first understand the behavior of that triangle itself. There are a number of triangle patterns that can be identified in technical analysis. The most well-known are symmetrical, ascending and descending triangles. But these patterns can be broken down into even more specific patterns such as a running triangle, busted triangles, and others. The identification of a triangle is based upon the angles of the two converging trendlines. A flat-top trendline with a rising bottom trendline would create an ascending triangle while a flat bottom trendline and a falling upper trendline would create a descending triangle. The interpretation can be different according to where you draw those trendlines. You will often find two different types of triangles if you draw one set of trendlines from the wicks and then another set of trendlines from the bodies. Bitcoin shows a symmetrical triangle when drawn from the wicks, but a descending triangle when drawn from the bodies. Which do you use? Personally, I only draw from the bodies if the wick is more of an anomaly than an ‘honest’ representation of the traded range of that candle. In other words, the symmetrical triangle that you see on a great many charts these days is, in my opinion, the appropriate pattern. Knowing that we have a symmetrical triangle is one thing, now it’s time to identify the behavior of this pattern. In the study of chart patterns, there is no expert greater than Thomas Bulkowski. He is the author of the B loomberg Financial Series book, Visual Guide to Chart Patterns, as well as Chart Patterns After The Buy and, what I believe to be one of the greatest technical analysts books out there: Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns. ! Bulkowski has a breakdown of known patterns and assesses with a ranking system, statistical performance behavior and required criteria for identification.
According to Bulkoswki, a symmetrical triangle in a bull market was two performance ratings. The rank for a bullish breakout is 52 out of 56 while a bearish breakout is 38 out of 53. The average rise from a bullish breakout is 34% vs 12% for a bearish breakout. On both directional breakouts, there is a 62% and 65% (respectively) throwback/pullback rate. The percentage chance that a bullish target is met is 58%, 36% for a bearish target. From that information, we can see that even in a bull market, symmetrical triangles seem to be weighted more heavily towards a bearish breakout — but the range of that move is quite limited and the chance of it meeting its price target from that bearish breakout is significantly lower than the bullish breakout.
Some of the key identifying factors that Bulkowski lists are, first, the convergence of two trendlines with the bottom trendline sloping up and the upper trendline sloping down. Additionally, price must travel between those two trendlines without a lot of ‘white space’ (open space). He also indicates that price must touch one trendline at least three times and the other at least twice. Volume tends to decrease 86% of the time. An upward breakout occurs 60% of the time at 73% of the way to the triangle’s apex and 74% for a downward breakout. He also says that patterns that have a breakout with volume above the 30-day average have a better chance of playing out with a favorable outcome and that throwbacks and pullbacks hurt the post-breakout performance.
Pattern Analysis
The chart above is the symmetrical triangle on Bitcoin’s daily chart. Utilizing the information from Bulkowski’s work, we can identify some of the key components that we want to see for a breakout of this symmetrical triangle. First, we want to know if price has touched the trendlines at least 3 times on one line and at least 2 times on the other. Letter A shows at least three touches (possibly 4) for both the uptrend and downtrend lines. Next, we want to know if the volume has been above the 30-day average. The volume for September 19 th, 2019 was above that average (Letter B). Ideally, we want to see volume grow as we get closer to the breakout and then we should see it grow even more on the breakout. And third, we want to identify where 73% of the range from the beginning of the triangle to the apex. Letter C shows where that 73% range is at: September 24 th, 2019 — a coincidence that it shows up one day after the Bakkt Futures launch?
But we also want to know how far Bitcoin would move on a breakout. To do that, Buklowski also provided some tips. To do this, we need to subtract the high of the triangle from the low and then multiply it by the average percentage move. Then we add it to the breakout price level for a bullish target or subtract for a bearish target. Since we don’t have a breakout price level yet, we could hypothesize a value from our current trading date. Taking the high of the range at $13880 minus the low of the range at $9,049.54 we get $4,830.46. Multiply that by the average bullish breakout rise of 34%, we get 1,642.35. Assuming we were to breakout higher near the $10,750 value area, then the target from the breakout would be $12, 392.35. On the bearish side of things, we do the same thing except instead of multiplying the high and low by 34%, we multiply it by 12% (4830.46 * 0.12 = 579.65). Assuming we broke down below the $9,400 value area, then we would see a target lower at $8,820.35.
Given all of this information, the most likely scenario would see play out, given the probabilities, is for price to actually breakdown lower and tag the bearish breakdown price target of $8,820.35 before pulling back into or above the triangle to trade higher. Remember: in a bullish symmetrical triangle there is a higher chance for price to experience a bearish breakout, but the downside risk is very limited and the pullback rate and failure rate for a bearish breakout is very high. Essentially, we will be looking at a highly probable bear trap before another leg higher towards the 2019 highs.
XAUUSD Longterm Outlook and ThoughtsJust testing out some new concepts, so I'm not 100% married to this outlook as it differs from my usual analysis, but regardless let's see what it tells us. Keep in mind when I make my targets (shown as BCD in pink), I expect the market to pivot within some range of that price (as indicated by the pink boxes), as is the case in all my charts.
We are currently in the midst of an uptrend which I see pivoting around $1665 (B in pink). So we can take some Buys up to around that price, but be weary of possibly at least one more small pullback on the way up that may take you out of your trade if your SL's are too tight. From here we can expect a leg down to around $1175 (C in pink). Since this itself will take a few years to play out, I don't think it's worth discussing the targets that are further out at this point in time. Let's see how it progresses.