Gold gonna bust a move for Q4 || 04.OCT.2024 - FOMC?!Goooood Morning Tradingview!!
I am back! I'm glad to be back! I have missed y'all!!
Let's dive right in!!
Ok, starting from our bad mama-jamma, Monthly timeframe we can see XAUUSD is taking off! We are in an obvious bullish momentum creating new ALL TIME HIGHS each month, meaning we are in uncharted territory...
YET
Each week I have presented ideas that have played out more times than not.
HOWEVER,
Mistakes were made in my trade management. Alongside my business partner we've created a game plan that made sense to me and my trading style according to my trading personality or archetype - pretty INSANE I know!
Buuuuuuuut back to today's trade.
I am going to sit patiently and see which way price wants to move and when she does get ready for a big ol' heavy hitter *POW! I have my bias' for sure...PIPS OVER PROFITS!!
If you've made it this far, thank y'all! Shout Out to the new follows! I am truly blessed! God bless y'all
*Peace!
Analyse
Gold on the Edge: Rising Wedge Breakdown or Support Bounce?4-Hour Chart:
Consolidation Below All-Time High:
After reaching the all-time high, the price is consolidating in a rising wedge pattern. This formation reflects indecision in the market, but the overall structure suggests potential for a downward move.
Key Levels:
4H LQZ TP1 (2,550.342): A strong support level and a possible target for short positions if the price drops.
4H LQZ TP2 (2,522.172): The second support level, likely to attract buyers if tested.
Strategy: If the price breaks down from the rising wedge and fails to hold support at 2,550.342, a move toward 2,522.172 could be expected. A reversal could occur at either of these liquidity zones.
1-Hour Chart:
Descending Channel (near support): The price is trending lower after failing to break above the all-time high. The descending channel is not steep, suggesting mild bearish pressure.
Support Levels:
1H LQZ (2,542.481): Immediate support for the current descending structure.
4H LQZ (2,522.172): Deeper support, aligned with the broader market structure, giving more room for a potential pullback.
Strategy: A break below the 1H LQZ could accelerate the sell-off, targeting the 4H LQZ. Watch for consolidation or buying pressure at these levels, as they are potential reversal points.
15-Minute Chart:
Rising Wedge: The price is forming a rising wedge pattern, which is typically a bearish signal, suggesting potential weakness in the uptrend. The price has made lower highs while testing a crucial support zone.
Key Levels:
All-Time High (2,589.652): The price tested this region but has failed to sustain momentum above it. This could indicate a major resistance level.
1H LQZ (2,542.481): The first level of significant support, serving as a take-profit target (TP1) for short positions. If the price breaks below, it could accelerate toward this level.
4H LQZ (2,522.172): The next key support zone (TP2), which could act as a strong buying area if the price corrects further.
Strategy: Watch for a potential breakdown from the rising wedge. A confirmed break below the wedge and support levels could indicate a stronger move downward toward 1H LQZ or 4H LQZ.
Overall Summary:
Bearish Bias: Across all time frames, the rising wedge formation points to potential bearish pressure, especially with failure to break above the all-time high.
Key Levels:
The all-time high (2,589.652) remains the major resistance.
Watch for reactions around 1H LQZ (2,542.481) and 4H LQZ (2,522.172) for potential support and buying opportunities.
Breakout or Breakdown: If the price breaks below the wedge patterns on the 15-minute and 4-hour charts, further downside toward the liquidity zones is likely. However, a rebound could signal renewed bullish momentum.
This setup is perfect for monitoring entry points based on key support/resistance levels and the wedge formations' breakdown potential.