XAUUSD: Analysis and strategy before the Fed rate decisionYesterday's view on gold was still very accurate. In the article, I clearly stated that there would be a correction before the Fed's interest rate decision, and the window period was after the data was released. As expected, under the premise of multiple negative data and a large number of long orders being profited, the gold price fell all the way to 2560, which also gave us the opportunity to close the short positions we held last week.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced today. My prediction for a rate cut is 25 basis points. The possibility of 50 basis points is not high in my opinion, but it has to be guarded against.
In the context of the upcoming announcement of the interest rate cut, today's trading strategy must be based on the number of basis points of interest rate cuts to formulate a trading plan, so I give the following suggestions for your reference:
In the case of a 25 basis point interest rate cut:
I personally think that the gold price will rise first and then fall. First of all, the interest rate cut is definitely good for gold, but because of the continuous interest rate cut remarks for a month, the gold price has now reached a historical high of 2590, and has digested the impact of the interest rate cut in advance. The rise in gold prices from 2530-2590 is largely due to some investors' belief that the Fed will be concerned about employment issues, which greatly increases the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut. Therefore, once the announced value does not meet expectations, the price of gold will inevitably fall.
In the case of a 50 basis point rate cut:
There is no doubt that gold prices will continue to rise and set a new high again.
