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Insider Knowledge: Exploiting the House Money EffectIntroduction In trading and investing, psychological biases significantly influence decision-making. One such bias is the "House Money Effect." Understanding this effect can help traders avoid common pitfalls and take advantage of this phenomenon. What is the House Money Effect? The House Money Effect is a psychological phenomenon where individuals are more likely to take risks with money they have won rather than their initial capital. In trading, this means traders become more risk-tolerant after experiencing gains, treating profits as "house money" and taking on higher risks than they would with their own capital. Why Does It Happen? The House Money Effect occurs due to several psychological factors: Mental Accounting : People tend to treat money differently based on its source. Profits are often seen as less valuable than initial capital. Overconfidence : After a winning streak, traders may become overconfident in their abilities, leading to riskier trades. Loss Aversion : Gains are perceived as a buffer, reducing the fear of losses and encouraging riskier behavior. Example of the House Money Effect on Crypto In the 2021 Crypto Bull Market, we saw Bitcoin soar to all time highs. This subsequently caused many altcoins to rally really hard resulting in some 100-500x and numerous 2-3x tokens. If you observed at what point in the timeline this happened, this happened towards the end of the bull run, when everyone already knew about crypto and everybody was seemingly getting rich by buying cryptocurrencies. This was the peak of retail activity, which includes newcomers as well as those who got rich from holding tokens earlier. This is a perfect example of the phenomenon with several key characteristics Was after a period of extreme gains Was causing risk assets to outperform, suggesting a higher risk tolerance in the market Immediately after the markets tanked, clearly indicating this was a massive retail loss By understanding and spotting the House Money Effect, traders can better manage their emotions and make more rational trading decisions. Recognizing this bias is the first step toward mitigating its impact and maintaining a disciplined trading strategy. We hope you enjoyed reading this idea.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by AlgoAlpha
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 24, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to rise for the third consecutive session on Wednesday, likely due to the return of risk-off-oriented flows. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates at next week's policy meeting, prompting short sellers to exit their positions and lending support to the Japanese Yen. A senior ruling party official, Toshimitsu Motegi, called on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to more clearly outline its plan to normalize monetary policy by gradually raising interest rates, according to Reuters. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida added that normalizing the central bank's monetary policy will facilitate Japan's transition to a growth-oriented economy. The U.S. dollar (USD) is facing challenges due to rising expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September, putting pressure on the USD/JPY pair. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting is 93.6%, up from 88.5% a day earlier. Traders await the release of U.S. purchasing managers' index (PMI) data on Wednesday and annualized gross domestic product (GDP) (Q2) on Thursday. The data is expected to provide new insights into the US economic situation. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 23, 2024 EURUSDEUR/USD fluctuated just below 1.09000 on Monday as the new trading week started on a rather weak note. There will be little meaningful data in the first half of the trading week, so traders will have to be on the lookout for key Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on Wednesday in both the EU and the US. Things will remain roughly flat on Monday and Tuesday, with markets looking ahead to the start of the week's calendar of meaningful economic data on Wednesday. Tuesday will see the release of average US existing home sales data for June. EUR/USD traders will focus on Wednesday's double block of purchasing managers' index (PMI) data. The EU Manufacturing and Services PMI for July is expected to rise slightly, while the Services PMI for the month is expected to come in at 53.0, up from 52.8 in the previous month. On Wednesday, the US will release its own PMI data. Forecast models predict that the July US Services PMI will fall to 54.4 from the previous reading of 55.3. Thursday will continue the trend of important data releases from the U.S., particularly the second quarter 2024 annualized gross domestic product (GDP). The trading week will end on Friday with the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which will provide key US inflation data. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.09000. If consolidate above it, take Buy positions, on the rebound take Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Summary of Bullish Outlook for (WTI) OilSeveral factors are contributing to a bullish outlook for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices in the near future: 1. **Rising Global Demand**: As major economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, industrial and transportation activities are increasing, particularly in Asia with significant contributions from China and India. 2. **Production Cuts**: OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) continue to implement production cuts to stabilize and boost oil prices, preventing significant declines. 3. **Declining Oil Inventories**: Recent reports show a notable decrease in oil inventories in the United States and other countries, indicating higher consumption and demand in the market. 4. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Instability in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and North Africa can lead to supply concerns and price increases. 5. **Investment in Alternative Energies**: While the long-term shift to renewable energy sources may reduce oil demand, short-term transitions and policy changes can cause price volatility and increases. ### Conclusion Given these factors, the outlook for WTI oil prices is bullish. Investors and analysts should closely monitor these dynamics to make informed decisions in the oil market.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by Cryptowormshot
US Dollar Index Technical Forecast: USD Weekly Trade LevelsTechnical Outlook: In remaining month`s US Dollar Technical Forecast we mentioned that DXY was, “buying and selling into confluent guide this week on the 52-week transferring average / 38.2% retracement of the December rally at 103.96-104.26 – searching out a response / feasible rate inflection right here over the following few days.” The index grew to become better two-days later with USD surging greater than 2% off the June lows. The rally faltered at key resistance into the near of the month on the 2023 / 2024 high-week closes (HWC) at 106.10/11- the point of interest is on feasible inflection off this threshold with the long-bias susceptible whilst below. Initial weekly guide rests with the June low-week reversal near at 104.ninety five sponsored through key guide once more on the 52-week transferring average / 38.2% retracement, now 104.21/26- losses need to be constrained to this threshold for the January uptrend to stay viable. Broader, bullish invalidation regular at 102.87/99- a area outline through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the December rally, the 2016 high-near, and the 2023 January low-week near (LWC). A topside breach / weekly near above 106.10 might be had to mark uptrend resumption with next goals eyed on the 50% retracement of the 2022 decline / 2023 highs at 107.18/34 and key resistance on the 100% extension of the 2023 advance / 61.8% retracement at 108.38/97- search for a bigger response there IF reached.
TVC:DXYLong
by Chart_MasterPro
BCHUSD is lagging?Looking at the technical picture of BCHUSD we can see that the 400-dollar mark is providing strong resistance. A clearance of that area may attract more buyers into the game. #bchusd EASYMARKETS:BCHUSD CRYPTO:BCHUSD Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:BCHUSD
by easyMarkets
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 22, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) remains weak on Monday, extending its losing streak to a third straight session. Traders are preparing for next week's Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, which may consider an interest rate hike to support the yen. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said normalizing the central bank's monetary policy will help Japan's transition to a growth-oriented economy, according to Nikkei Asia. Speculative short yen positions, which had risen to their second-highest level, began to shrink after Japan's anticipated yen buying intervention this month surprised the market. According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, yen short positions held by market participants such as hedge funds totaled 151,072 contracts as of Tuesday. This represents a decline of 30,961 contracts from the previous week and is the biggest decline since May 7, when short positions declined by 33,466 contracts, according to another report from Nikkei Asia. The USD/JPY pair may limit its gains as the U.S. dollar (USD) faces challenges from rising bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September and lingering concerns about the volatility of the U.S. labor market. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting is 91.7%, up from 90.3% a week earlier. Trading Recommendation: Watch the level of 157.500, and on the rebound we take Sell positions.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
NZDUSD - Selloff Acceleration on Neckline BreakThis week's open will be interesting. It'll largely be dependent on the resumption of strength of the US dollar. The anticipated strengthening of the US dollar is supported over on this NZDUSD pair. Looking at the daily timeframe, the New Zealand dollar has shown a weakening in strength throughout the months of June and early July. My proposed trade entry and exit targets are based on the 5-period daily ATR of 42. Take profit: 100 pips (2x~) Stop loss: 40 pips (1x~)
Short
by FinancialGamblR
Sei Network, $SEI Daily Chart of Sei/TetherUS*Chart shown above is Sei's historical price chart and past events embedded, including max ROI and distance from ATH. #1 – Sei Network, TSXV:SEI - Weekly Chart of Near Protocol/TetherUS ❔ Overview *Sei is a general-purpose, open-source Layer 1 blockchain specialized for the exchange of digital assets. Sei is one of the fastest blockchains in the industry, leveraging a novel consensus and technical breakthroughs. Rank: #76 MarketCap: $1.25B Sector: DEX, Layer 1, NFT Network Compatibility: Cosmos and Sei Top Markets - Binance and WhiteBIT Year Founded: 2022 ❓ ICO Details •First ICO conducted last August 31, 2020, raising $45M •Seed Sale price of 1 SEI = 0.005 USD •Returns since first ICO: 79x •Average ATH of $1.14 with max ROI of 228x, currently 66% from the ATH Competitor: EURONEXT:ALGO at $1.30B Major Competitor: CRYPTOCAP:ETH at $421B Check them out! Website - www.sei.io Linktree - linktr.ee (Nothing is FA and post is purely informational.) Sharing this post is highly appreciated. 🫡 Safe trades! 👌 📮 July 21, 2024
by Lonesome11
1
EG likely see more downside to come! Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. More downside?To me seems likely. Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
BTC still looks good to head higher,still upside bias Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Last week mentioned about its bullishness...and it went up higher..this week at the current 67-68k might face some headwinds. But Clearing this should see more up side to last high at 72-ish! Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
ICMARKETS:BTCUSDLong
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Euraud needs clearing to go up Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Needs this current area to clear on daily timeframe before it can head higher,more bias on it to go up though. Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
Long
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
USD - a potential turn around from current level..Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Could be seeing a reversal here, mixed 'feeling' on USD for now...haha Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
TVC:DXY
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys