Retest of the Lows, Rocket Ride up from Here?Here we are. Just you, me, and a strange serious of price action events with NVDA...
So, how do we read this in the short-term future?
I always start with a Daily Chart (1D). MACD and RSI are overdue for a little pop towards the upside. After a retest of the lows, NVDA bounced off what we can now call Support at 97.
Our initial price targets still stand. In the short-term, 511. After that, the next leg up is 514.
Today, the market manipulators started to release the recovery news. Keep in mind, it's Ms. Market's job to ensure growth and stability in the market. Jobless claims were presumably "not as bad" as they previously stated. Right, okay.
Anyway, who cares? We're not trading feelings, we're trading options.
Moving forward, the market closes higher swinging into Friday as we use volatility as our friend to secure profits with expirations further out. I'd call this phase, "safe swinging".
Let's see how the market reacts EOW. Thanks for tuning in.
Analysis
Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis in Cryptocurrency TradingHello, Traders!
Today, we'll delve into the ongoing battle 🥊between two mighty opponents: fundamental analysis (FA) and technical analysis (TA). What is the difference between fundamental and technical analysis? What are each's strengths? Do they truly need to compete?
Fighter in the Right Corner — Fundamental Analysis
Introducing the first contender: Fundamental Analysis. What is Fundamental Analysis? This strategy evaluates assets' fair market value and potential for growth and decline by studying business methods, technical documents, roadmaps, competition, network activity, and other indicators.
Types of Fundamental Analysis:
Qualitative Analysis: Subjective judgment based on non-quantifiable information. It includes evaluating the team behind the project, its vision, partnerships, and community support.
Quantitative Analysis: Involves analyzing numerical data and financial metrics. It includes evaluating financial statements, market cap, trading volume, and other measurable data points.
On-Chain Analysis : Involves examining blockchain data to assess network activity, transaction volume, and other on-chain metrics. It helps understand cryptocurrency usage and adoption.
How to Do Fundamental Analysis? Criteria for Evaluating Crypto Projects through Fundamental Analysis:
Reputation and Team Members' Experience: A strong, experienced, and reputable team can significantly influence the project's success.
Level and Volume of Raised Investments: High-profile investors and substantial funding can indicate a project's potential.
Social Media: Audience and activity on social media platforms. Active and engaged communities can drive adoption and success.
Whitepaper: The project’s technical document outlining the vision, technology, and roadmap. A well-drafted whitepaper provides insights into the project's seriousness and feasibility.
Tokenomics: The token’s economic model, including supply, distribution, and utility. Effective tokenomics can ensure sustainable growth and value.
Roadmap: The project implementation plan detailing milestones and timelines. A clear and realistic roadmap can indicate a project's future direction and potential.
Fighter in the Left Corner — Technical Analysis
Here comes the second contender: Technical Analysis. This method analyzes and forecasts asset value based on historical price indicators. In TA, a chart is a crucial tool for tracking price changes.
Tools Employed by Technical Analysis:
Data Collection: Historical price data from various timeframes using platforms like TradingView.
Charts: Informative data through candlestick charts, line charts, or other graphical representations to examine trends.
Indicators: Use tools like Moving Averages (SMA, EMA), Relative Strength Indexes (RSI), and Bollinger Bands.
Patterns: Such as Head and Shoulders, Double Tops and Bottoms, Triangles, Flags, Pennants, Wedges, Cup and Handles, etc.
Backtesting: Use historical data to evaluate past performance and refine your approach.
Psychological Factors: Emotional biases and market sentiment can influence trading decisions. See our article on the Fear and Greed Index.
Practice: Demo accounts or paper trading to hone your skills without risking real money, building experience and confidence before trading with actual funds.
We also invite you to read our detailed article about Technical Analysis.
Intense Duel 🧑⚖️
So, should we even be picking a winner? In conclusion, understanding the nuances of fundamental analysis and technical analysis is paramount to crafting a robust investment strategy. FA in crypto delves into the core aspects of a project. This thorough examination aims to grasp a digital asset's intrinsic value and long-term potential, mitigating risks by assessing its reliability and future prospects.
Conversely, TA leverages market statistics and historical price data to uncover trends, patterns, and potential entry and exit points. This method provides a granular view of market sentiment, enabling traders to make informed decisions based on price movements and trading volumes.
FA and TA serve distinct purposes: FA offers a comprehensive understanding of a project's viability and long-term growth potential, making it ideal for long-term investments. TA, on the other hand, is adept at navigating the immediate market landscape, making it indispensable for short-term trading strategies.
Combining these approaches can significantly amplify investment success. Crypto fundamental analysis provides the foundational knowledge to identify promising projects with solid fundamentals. At the same time, Crypto technical analysis equips traders with the tools to capitalize on market fluctuations and optimize entry and exit points. In essence, FA and TA are not mutually exclusive but rather complementary strategies that, when used together, can yield a more comprehensive and practical approach to cryptocurrency trading and investing. 🤝🏻
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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 8, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair bounced back towards 1.0935, breaking a two-day losing streak during Asian trading on Thursday. A softer US dollar (USD) is providing some support to the major pair. Nevertheless, risk-off sentiment may limit EUR/USD gains amid escalating geopolitical risks. Later in the day, the weekly US initial jobless claims report will be released.
Last week's weak US jobs report for July sparked speculation of deeper interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, which continue to undermine the US Dollar. Financial markets are convinced that the Fed will cut interest rates at its next meeting in September, increasing the rate cut bets by 50 basis points (bps) rather than 25 bps, to nearly 83%, according to the FedWatch tool.
On Wednesday, European Central Bank policymaker Olli Rehn said the ECB could continue cutting interest rates if there is confidence among policymakers that inflation will slow in the near term. The central bank left interest rates unchanged at its July meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde said during a conference on the coast that any move in September remains an open question.
Meanwhile, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could put pressure on risk assets such as the euro (EUR). The market turned cautious after CNN reported on Wednesday that Iran and its supporters are preparing for a potential retaliatory strike on Israel. According to the latest reports, the retaliation could be delayed until Thursday or Friday.
Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis: Bearish Sentiment TodayOverview:
Today’s market analysis indicates a bearish trend for gold (XAU/USD), suggesting that a selling opportunity might present itself. The current setup shows a strong potential for a decline, which can be capitalized on with careful planning and execution.
Sell Zone:
Sell Zone: The optimal level for initiating a sell position is at 2405. This is where we anticipate a significant resistance point, and it aligns with the bearish outlook. 🟡🔽
Target Price:
Target Price: Our primary target for this bearish trade is 2370. This level is chosen based on expected support zones and technical indicators pointing towards a potential drop. 🎯📉
Market Liquidity:
Liquidity: The current market conditions show robust liquidity on the sell side. This means there is ample opportunity to execute sell orders efficiently, enhancing the feasibility of entering and exiting trades smoothly. 💰📊
Key Points:
Bearish Trend: The overall market sentiment is negative, favoring downward movement in gold prices. 📉
Entry Point: 2405 provides a strong resistance level, making it a prime area to consider selling. 🚪
Exit Strategy: Aim for the target price of 2370 to secure profits as the price approaches this support level. 📈
Liquidity Advantage: High liquidity on the sell side ensures that trades can be executed without significant slippage or delays. 🌐
Summary:
Sell Zone: 2405
Target Price: 2370
Market Liquidity: Favorable for selling
Ensure to monitor the market closely and adjust your strategies as needed. Stay informed with real-time updates to navigate the market effectively. 🚀📊
Is JASMY done? Taking a look at the daily chart, we see JASMY has been in a down trend (lower highs and lower lows) since the beginning of June falling back into this consolidation range where it was bound for 3 months during February - May. The fact that price has made a complete retracement of the breakout and back into the old consolidation channel, testing its low, is not a good sign to me.
The yellow lines on the chart represent the consolidation's boundaries with the top acting as strong resistance and the bottom now acting as strong support again. There's an intermediate level that acts as support/resistance around the .021 area.
The selloff on Monday, August 5th had substantial volume (last time we had that high of a volume was in February) which indicates to me that a large amount of coins were sold that day and people were taking their profits or getting out of their positions.
Moving forward, I would expect price to be bound within the range of this consolidation channel and if it breaks below it, the next support zone I see is around .012 - .013.
If price makes its way down to .015 - .016 again and consolidates there, it could be a great opportunity for a long position as that level is extremely strong. But, I need more data supporting that thesis before considering an actual entry.
Good luck to you all.
Bitcoin Short - Continue correction on the way - BTC SHORTBitcoin Short - Continue correction on the way - BTC SHORT
In the future, after a short rise, Bitcoin will continue its path towards price correction up to 40K , and after that, it should be seen whether it will break the resistance on its way or return to take over the new peak.
XAUUSD ( UNDER BULLISH PRESSURE ) (4H)XAUUSD
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency, the price is under upward pressure , until the price trading above support level (1) at 2,367$.
Upward Zone : until the price trading above support level (1) , indicates further up trading , currently the price trading above turning level at 2,391 , to support reach of a resistance level (1) around 2,420$ , to confirm upward , price need breaking by close 4h candle above 2,420$ to reach resistance level (2) at 2,440$ , may be the price reserve and breaking turning level to reaching a support level (1) at 2,367$ , after starting a upward .
Downward Zone: should the price reserve and breaking turning level , indicates dropping to support level (1) around 2,367$ , to confirm downward , the price it will be breaking 2,367$ , by closing 4h candle below it to reach support level (2) at 2,337$ .
Corrective level :Price may make a correction at 2,391$ & 2,367$ , before rising .
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 2,420$, 2,440$ , 2,460$.
SUPPORT LEVEL : 2,367$ , 2,337$ , 2,303$.
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 7, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to lose ground against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day. This decline can be attributed to comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida on Wednesday: "We will not raise rates when markets are unstable," according to Reuters.
Deputy Governor Uchida also noted that the BoJ's interest rate strategy will adapt if market volatility changes economic forecasts, risk assessments or projections. Given recent market volatility, he emphasized the need to carefully monitor the economic and price effects of its policy, stating, "We should maintain the current degree of monetary policy easing for the time being."
The upside potential for the USD/JPY pair may be limited as the U.S. dollar faces challenges and markets expect a more significant rate cut in September. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September is 67.5%, up from 13.2% a week earlier.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Bitcoin UpdateOn August 5th, Bitcoin dropped below the 50,000 mark, invalidating a previously established channel. Currently, Bitcoin is testing the 57,000 level. If this test is successful, Bitcoin could rise to the 61,000 level, where it may face a minor retest before continuing its upward trajectory. However, the heavy order concentration and liquidations between the 60,000 and 63,000 levels could present significant challenges.
Optimistic Scenario (Green Arrow):
After navigating the fluctuations above the order block, Bitcoin successfully tests the blue line, confirming support, and continues its upward trend.
Pessimistic Scenario (Red Arrow):
Bitcoin faces substantial resistance within the 60,000 to 63,000 range due to high order activity, leading to a reversal and a potential decline back to the 45,000 level.
GBPJPY ( UNDER STRONG DOWNWARD PRESSURE ) ( 4H )GBPJPY
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , the price is under bearish pressure , until trading below turning level at 183.919 .
TURNING LEVEL : the price of this level at 183.919 , so until the price trade below this level indicates likely to reach a support level (1) , but if the breaking by open 4h candle above this level reach a resistance level (1) .
RESISTANCE ZONE : this zone between 191.007 and 198.018 , in order to see this zone the price need breaking turning level at 183.919 , breaking this price indicates an increase and reaching the resistance level (1) at 191.007 , then stabilizing above resistance level (1) likely to reach of a resistance level (2) at 198.018 , after breaking this zone it will be attempt to reach resistance level (3) at 203.869 , selling have already increase in this zone .
SUPPORT ZONE : this zone between 180.401 & 177.400 , until the price trading below turning level or stabilizing below this level indicates to reach of a support level (1) at 180.401 , by open 4h or 1h candle below support level (1) , it indicates to reaching support level (2) around 177.400 .
CORRECTIVE : the price corrective at 183.919 , before dropping .
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 191.007 , 198.018, 203.869 .
SUPPORT LEVEL : 180.401 , 177.400 .
Sell GBP/USD Triangle BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.2760
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2680
2nd Support – 1.2637
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.2834. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Dogecoin Buying Opportunity?As you can see on the daily chart, dogecoin is trending downwards in this channel. Buyers seem unable to break above .12800 resistance at the moment.
If price breaks below the support line, I will wait to see how price reacts to the potential buy zone for a long position/dead cat bounce.
If price retests the support line and doesn't break it, I might enter for a scalp to the upside.
If price breaks above the channel and creates a new trend upwards, I will enter long.
What are your thoughts on dogecoin?
COINBASE:DOGEUSD