Analysis
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 15, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair is trading with a bullish bias around 1.08150 in the early hours of Asian trading on Wednesday. Later, markets may shift to cautious sentiment ahead of key economic data releases from the Eurozone and the US. Wednesday's highlights will be the first reading of the Eurozone's first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and the April US consumer price index (CPI).
On Tuesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell said inflation is falling more slowly than expected and the CPI data gave more reason to keep rates higher. Powell added that he believes it is unlikely that the central bank will need to raise interest rates further, even if there is less chance of a rate cut. In addition, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said inflation remains too high and the U.S. central bank still has a lot of work to do. These hawkish comments could boost the US Dollar (USD) and put pressure on the major pair in the near term.
However, later in the day, US CPI data is due to be released, which could influence the Fed's interest rate decision at the next meeting. Annual core CPI inflation is expected to fall to 3.4% in April from 3.5% in the previous reading. Core CPI inflation is projected to fall to 3.6% in April from 3.8% previously. If the upcoming CPI data meets expectations, it could lead to the prospect of a rate cut. This, in turn, could lead to a decline in the dollar and serve as a tailwind for EUR/USD.
Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly on Buy from the current price level.
BANKNIFTY Trading Strategy for 15th May, 2024 | Expiry TradeNSE:BANKNIFTY Trading Strategy for 15th May, 2024 | Bullish Reversal confirmed.
✅ Breakout from lower end of rising channel at daily chart.
✅ Breakout from Falling wedge patter at 15 min Time Frame
Trading Strategy :-
✅ Initiate CE trade if Banknifty crosses and sustains (min 30 mins) above 48000 - 48070
✅ Target - 48258/48461
✅ Initiate PE trade if Banknifty crosses 47800-47750
✅ Target - 47607/47429/47099
Look at the chart for more information
Do share your thoughts on the analysis. Lets decode the charts together.
Gold analysis for 13/05/24 & 14/05/24According to my analysis and according to what you taught me, Tamas :
Scenario 1 :
If CPI comes negative on Wednesday, it could lead to deflation concerns, which might prompt the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates to stimulate economic activity and prevent deflationary pressures. A negative CPI could indicate a decrease in the general price level of goods and services, potentially signaling weak demand or economic contraction
A decision by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates could weaken the dollar, as lower interest rates typically make a currency less attractive to investors seeking higher yields. This could lead to a depreciation of the dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of other currencies
Gold prices may rise in response to a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Lower interest rates typically decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold, making it more attractive to investors. Additionally, concerns about inflation and currency depreciation amid monetary easing measures could further support gold prices , Gold may Target 2394-2400
Scenario 2:
A positive CPI indicates an increase in the general price level of goods and services, suggesting inflationary pressures. This could lead to concerns about the purchasing power of the currency and potential future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation
If the PPI also shows an increase on Tuesday, it could reinforce inflationary expectations, indicating rising costs for producers. This might further support the case for potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to address inflationary pressures
Technical Analysis :
We're currently in Correction Wave , and Expecting Price to Pump for Gold target 2394-2401
Advice : please always use a propre risk management this is my analyse and good luck
Make sure if you like my Analysis to boost up my post and Comment
GBPUSD SELL | Idea Trading AnalysisGBPUSD is moving in a descending channel near the upper boundary.
The volatility of the price movement decreased when approaching the channel boundary.
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity USDJPY
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 14, 2024 USDJPYThe Dollar-Yen pair continues to rally around 156.20 and higher in the early hours of Asian trading on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen is losing ground against the US Dollar (USD) despite the hawkish signal from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to reduce Japanese government bond purchases on Monday, as well as unfavorable Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for April last week.
Investors will be more focused on key US economic data this week, including the Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales. These reports will provide some hints as to whether inflation remains intractable, is falling slightly, or even possibly rising. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which reflects inflation at the wholesale level, is due out Tuesday and is expected to have risen 2.2% in April from a year earlier. The core PPI, which excludes energy and food costs, is expected to rise 2.4% y/y over the same reporting period. Traders can use the PPI report to gauge potential CPI results, and better-than-expected data could continue to strengthen the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).
As for the JPY, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) gave a hawkish signal on Monday by reducing the amount of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) it offered to buy as part of its regular buying operation. The move is expected to put upward pressure on Japanese bond yields and possibly narrow the gap between Japan and the US, which has weakened the Japanese Yen. However, the recent movement has been muted and has had little impact on the yen exchange rate. On Thursday, Japan will release the country's Q1 2024 GDP growth data. Stronger figures may lift the yen and limit the USD/JPY pair growth in the near term.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) traders are still undecided Bitcoin EASYMARKETS:BTCUSD
Disclaimer:
easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
XAUUSD Analysis (14th May 2024)
Market Analysis PT1/2 (14th May 2024)
XAUUSD Analysis
On the Daily timeframe, price has retraced to the 0,618 Fibonacci retracement level which is a key area where price could look to go long from.
On the 4 hour timeframe, we have created a daily FVG, and price has rejected of it temporarily so we need to look for confirmations.
dropping to the 15 minute timeframe, There are 2 scenarios i am looking at.
1) price creates A Change of Character with a body candle close above the 2346.06 level. This will indicate the 15 minute timeframe is shifting for bearish to bullish price action and we can look for a BOS to support that on the 5/15 minute timeframe in order to look for BUYS.
2) Price breaks through the 4 hour FVG/15 minute bullish OB, breaking past the 2328.31 level with a body candle close below. If this happens, Bearishness on Gold is still in play and we can continue to look for shorts during the London session.
MSFT - Back at it with analysis and trade opportunitiesWas away for a few weeks and surely missed out on many good opportunities. I had swing positions on a lot of things but am now back to being on the charts.
Here is analysis on MSFT which we can see signs of tapering forming and also a slight potential bullish indication through one of our algo tricks.
Happy Trading :)
- TraderDaddyOG
A positive view - Let's Bear up Let's go back in while, price seems to be rejecting at resistance level back in 2018.
we see a huge fall after 2018 falling as far as 79%, price is rejected at support which was formed back in 2014-2015.
Moral of the story : we check history to forecast present!!
Some Ethics :
1. resistance breakout after long span of time (3 years)
2. target identified as the previous range between S\R levels
3. 346-357 was the resistance range since 2018 may act as strong support in upcoming event
4. I used super-trend to check if price continuation persist on same level
Marking multiple levels based on previous rejection and price retest
1. 628.05 - 659.90 as resistance range
2. 515.85 - 551 as support range
3. recent rejection from 446, price hits target of 515 which was it's previous support (acting resistance level)
4. With the rejection on resistance we also see a shooting star formation of approx. 4% with which we consider a fall with size of candle.
5. But, in last session we saw a momentum, price peaked up but did not resist at resistance and fell by 4.7%
If we consider previous S\R levels on basis of fall and rise, we can assume that it may fall by more 3-4% and we may see short covering at this level @ 483 and may see upper levels of 515 to 551.
Personal views only, please do your own research ->
Let's see if movement goes along
GBPCAD-BEARISH-4H-CONTINUATION GBP/CAD Analysis
1. **Bearish/Bullish Analysis:**
- **Scorecard 3:** Indicates a bearish sentiment for GBP, bullish for CAD, resulting in a bearish outlook for GBPCAD. This could suggest weakness in the Pound against the Canadian Dollar.
- **COT-Flip:** The Commitment of Traders (COT) report suggests a shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish for GBP and from bearish to bullish for CAD, aligning with the Scorecard's conclusion of a bearish GBPCAD outlook.
- **Seasonal Analysis:** Seasonal trends show a bearish bias for GBP, and neutral for CAD, further supporting the bearish outlook for GBPCAD.
2. **Commodity Analysis:**
- Commodity analysis indicates a bearish sentiment, which could imply that macroeconomic factors or global commodity trends influence the GBP/CAD pair negatively.
3. **Conditional Analysis:**
- Conditional factors show a mix, with a bullish bias for both GBP and CAD, resulting in a neutral stance on GBPCAD. This suggests that certain conditional factors may not strongly influence the pair's direction.
4. **Fundamentals:**
- Leading Economic Index (LEI), Endogenous (ENDO), and Exogenous (EXO) fundamental analyses collectively point towards a bearish sentiment for GBP and a bullish sentiment for CAD. This reinforces the overall bearish outlook for GBPCAD.
### Technical Analysis:
1. **Trend:**
- The overall trend analysis indicates a bearish trend for GBP/CAD, suggesting that the pair is experiencing downward price movement.
2. **Continuation Patterns:**
- Continuation patterns are bearish, implying that the current downtrend in GBP/CAD is likely to persist.
Overall Interpretation:
The analysis of the scorecard and technical indicators suggests a predominantly bearish outlook for GBP/CAD for the second week of May. Fundamental factors such as the leading economic index and market sentiment indicators align with technical indicators, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. Traders and investors may consider this information when making decisions regarding GBP/CAD positions, keeping in mind both short-term and long-term trading strategies.
USDJPY at an important barrier#USDJPY EASYMARKETS:USDJPY
Disclaimer:
easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Waiting for Ripple (XRPUSD) to make a move#Ripple EASYMARKETS:XRPUSD
Disclaimer:
easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
XAUUSD Analysis (13th May 2024)
Market Analysis PT2/2 (13th May 2024)
XAUUSD Analysis
On the daily timeframe, we have created a Change of Character to the upside at the 2352 level.
Currently price is creating a pullback towards that key level.
What i want to see is for price to come down lower towards the 2352 level before deciding whether to long or short.
If price fails to create a 15 minute change of Character with a Body candle close above, i will be patient on longs and will be more short biased.
However, if price action confirmations a retest of the 2352 level and creates a 15 minute Bullish CHOCH, i will be actively looking for longs to target the 2400 level.