XAUUSD Analysis: Reversal Forecasts Based on Trading MathDear Trader,
Please find attached my analysis of $Subject, which uses mathematical calculations to identify potential reversal times and price levels.
The analysis details projected south and north price targets (horizontal lines on the chart), along with estimated time frames for possible reversals (vertical lines on the chart, accurate to within +/- 1-2 candles). Please note that all times indicated on the chart, including the vertical lines representing potential reversal times, are based on the UTC+4 time zone.
To increase the probability of these analyses, I recommend monitoring the 5-minute and 15-minute charts for the following key reversal candlestick patterns:
Doji’s
Hammer/Inverted Hammer
Double/Triple Bottom/Top
Shooting Star
Morning Star
Hanging Man
For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade.
I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work.
Regards,
Shunya Trade
Our Math Analysis as below are Gold Levels:-
3018.720095 - 2991.311155
3032.47144 - 2977.65356
3060.06788 - 2950.43212
3087.78932 - 2923.33568
3115.635761 - 2896.364239
3143.607201 - 2869.517799
3171.703641 - 2842.796359
3199.925081 - 2816.199919
3228.271521 - 2789.728479
3342.907282 - 2685.092718
3459.543042 - 2582.456958
3578.178803 - 2481.821197
3698.814564 - 2383.185436
3821.450324 - 2286.549676
3946.086085 - 2191.913915
4072.721845 - 2099.278155
4201.357606 - 2008.642394
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
Analysis
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 8, 2025 EURUSDAfter a tense week in which the US fully adopted a protectionist trade policy - despite lacking the necessary industrial infrastructure - tariffs on imports were imposed. The US now applies a general 10 per cent import tax on all goods from each country, as well as various ‘reciprocal’ tariffs calculated by dividing US imports by exports. After imposing a 34 per cent tariff on Chinese products, China responded with its own 34 per cent tariff on all goods imported from the US. Unable to find alternative solutions, the Trump administration threatened to impose an additional 50 per cent tariff on all Chinese goods, which is set to take effect on April 8.
US data takes centre stage again this week, with the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Thursday. On Friday, producer price index (PPI) data and the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment survey are expected.
Investors are raising bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin cutting interest rates to reduce recession risks. Markets are factoring in nearly 200 basis points of rate cuts through the end of 2025, despite the Fed issuing cautious policy statements indicating that trade uncertainty complicates any potential rate cut.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0950, SL 1.1030, TP 1.0830
USD/JPY(20250408)Today's AnalysisToday's buying and selling boundaries:
146.92
Support and resistance levels
150.22
148.99
148.18
145.65
144.85
143.61
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 148.18, consider buying, the first target price is 148.99
If the price breaks through 146.92, consider selling, the first target price is 145.65
Gold H1 projectionKey Points (Revised):
* Asset: Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD)
* Timeframe: 1-hour chart
* Recent Price Action: A sharp upward move has occurred, reaching the red highlighted zone (potential resistance).
* Potential Reversal Zone: The red rectangular area between approximately 3009.643 and 3015.015 now appears to be acting as a resistance zone.
* Target Zone: The green rectangular area between approximately 2953.785 and 2944.180 is now the potential target for a downward move.
* Proposed Pattern: The price action suggests a potential rejection at the resistance zone, leading to a downward move.
Trading Idea (Revised):
The updated chart suggests a potential short (sell) trade opportunity. The idea is to enter a short position within or near the red highlighted zone (potential resistance), anticipating a downward move towards the green highlighted zone (potential support/target). This is based on the price reaching a potential resistance level and showing signs of rejection.
EUR/USD Triangle Breakout (07.04.2025)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0825
2nd Support – 1.0719
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USD/JPY(20250407)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Fed Chairman Powell: Wait for clearer news before considering adjusting policy stance. One year later, as the impact of Trump's policies becomes clearer, uncertainty should be greatly reduced. Intends to complete the entire term. Potential tariffs may have a lasting impact on inflation. The impact of tariffs on the economy may be greater than expected. Downside risks have increased, but the economy is still in good shape.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
146.32
Support and resistance levels
149.17
148.11
147.41
145.22
144.53
143.46
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 146.32, consider buying, the first target price is 147.41
If the price breaks through 145.22, consider selling, the first target price is 144.53
High Risk, High Reward: Shorting ATH in a Bullish Copper Market.Copper just broke above its all-time high, triggering my short entry at 5.3010. While the macro trend is undeniably bullish, past price action has shown that each major high was followed by aggressive selloffs. This might not be the case this time – but that’s exactly why we have a stop-loss in place.
This is a tactical counter-trade: not about fighting the trend but playing a potential rejection from a psychological and technical key zone. Let’s see if history rhymes or the red metal keeps melting resistance!
Technicals:
• Daily timeframe breakout above ATH triggered the short at 5.3010.
• Strong vertical rally into major supply – parabolic move often cools down.
• Previous ATH levels have consistently attracted heavy selling.
• If price invalidates with a continuation above 5.61, the setup is out.
• Volatility around this zone is expected – precision and SL management are key.
Fundamentals:
1. Trump’s Proposed Copper Tariffs:
• Tariffs of up to 25% could disrupt global trade flow and introduce price instability.
• Market already priced in a bullish narrative, so any delay or uncertainty could spark a correction.
2. Panama’s Cobre Mine Shutdown:
• The mine accounts for 1% of global supply, and uncertainty around reopening may already be priced in.
• The government is holding off public visits, which adds operational risk but no clear bullish resolution yet.
3. China Smelter Closures:
• While bullish in nature, these are known factors – any shift or reversal from China could cool the demand-side speculation.
4. Overbought Sentiment:
• Prices surged rapidly, creating a gap between LME and NY copper prices, reaching record spreads.
• Speculative exhaustion could trigger a short-term pullback or deeper correction.
Risk-Managed Play. Let’s see if this time is different – or just the same old Copper story in a new macro wrapper.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
XAUUSD NEXT MOVE 1. Double Top Resistance Breakdown
The chart suggests a strong double top resistance zone around 3,160 USD.
Disruption: If price tests this zone and fails again (creating a third top), a sharp reversal could occur.
Implication: Bearish pressure may increase, potentially invalidating the long-term bullish target.
2. Failure to Hold the Bullish Zone
Price is hovering above the support for bullish zone (~2,980–3,000 USD).
Disruption: A break below this level, especially with volume, could signal trend reversal or deeper correction.
Implication: Price might head towards the next unmarked support area below 2,960 USD.
3. Weak Rebound from Current Level
The chart projects a “V-shaped” or “W-shaped” recovery.
Disruption: If market sentiment is weak, the price may consolidate sideways or drift lower instead of rebounding.
Implication: Delayed bullish momentum, potential accumulation phase or even distribution.
4. Fundamental Catalyst Risk
Several U.S. economic event icons are marked (likely NFP, CPI, FOMC).
Disruption: Any unexpectedly hawkish data or Fed speech can strengthen the USD and suppress gold prices.
Implication: Technical patterns may get overridden by macro volatility.
5. Over-Reliance on Horizontal Levels
The analysis is heavily based on horizontal S/R zones.
Disruption: If market dynamics shift (liquidity hunts, news-driven spikes), price could fake out these zones.
Implication: Stop hunts and liquidity grabs could trap traders expecting clean technical moves.
GOLD WEEKLY OPEN – Sentiment-Driven Marke🟡 GOLD WEEKLY OPEN – Sentiment-Driven Market as Asian Sellers Hit Early
Gold kicked off the new week with a sharp drop during the early Asian session, falling over 40 points from last week’s highs into the 297x zone — a move that reflects lingering sell-side pressure from last Friday’s close.
However, price quickly rebounded nearly 40 points, showing clear buy-side interest at the 297x zone — which acts as a key structural support on the H4 and D1 timeframes.
📌 If price breaks below this level convincingly, it could trigger a deeper move toward 295x.
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
The overall structure on H4 and D1 remains bullish
But right now, investor sentiment is leading, not just technicals
On H1 and H2, price is reacting to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement zone
If gold closes below 3030, we could see another leg down into the 295x area
🧠 Sentiment Is In Control (For Now)
So far, only Asia and Australia have shown their hand
We’re waiting on London and New York to step in before confirming trend direction
With price whipping around inside a broad range — only trade from key zones with clear price reaction
🧭 Key Technical Zones:
🔺 Resistance:
3055 – 3076 – 3107
🔻 Support:
3024 – 3005 – 2970 – 2952
🎯 Trading Plan:
🟢 BUY ZONE: 2980 – 2978
SL: 2974
TP: 2984 – 2988 – 2992 – 2996 – 3000
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3076 – 3078
SL: 3082
TP: 3072 – 3068 – 3064 – 3060 – 3056 – 3050
📅 What To Watch This Week:
This week brings major market movers:
CPI → PPI → Fed speakers — all lined up midweek.
→ Be selective with your trades and keep tight risk control.
AD will continue updating intraday zones across sessions.
✅ Trade smart. Respect your risk. Let the market come to you.
— AD | Money Market Flow
CAD/JPY Bearish Setup Near Resistance – Rejection Incoming?📉 Trend Analysis:
The pair is in a downtrend, confirmed by the descending trendline.
Lower highs and lower lows indicate bearish momentum.
📌 Key Levels:
Resistance Zone (104.5 - 106.0): Marked in purple, this area has previously acted as support and is now a key resistance zone.
Support Area: Around 100.0 - 101.0, a psychological level where price may find demand.
📊 Trade Scenario:
Bearish Rejection Expected: Price is approaching the resistance zone and trendline confluence. If rejection occurs, a downward move towards 100.0 is likely.
Break Above? If price breaks above the resistance zone and trendline, bullish momentum could invalidate the bearish setup.
🔍 Conclusion:
Watching for rejection near 105.0-106.0 to confirm a short opportunity.
If rejection happens, next targets are 102.0 → 100.0.
A bullish breakout above 106.0 could shift momentum upwards.
HelenP. I Euro will rise a little and then drop to support levelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. After breaking the structure of the previous downtrend, Euro showed a powerful bullish impulse, which allowed the price to exit the downward channel and move confidently higher. This breakout was supported by the trend line, which began to act as dynamic support throughout the rise. The bullish movement reached a local high near the 1.11 area before losing momentum. Soon after reaching that high, the price began to decline, pulling back to the area of the trend line and testing the support zone between 1.0950 and 1.0970. This zone aligns with Support 1 at the 1.0950 level and was already tested multiple times in recent price action. Although the trend line provided some temporary support, the strength of buyers has clearly faded. Currently, EUR/USD is trading just above the trend line, but price action suggests pressure is shifting back to the downside. Given the rejection from higher levels and the repeated tests of support, I expect the pair to decline further toward the 1.0950 target — my current goal. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
HelenP. I Bitcoin can rebound up from support zone to trend lineHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. Some time ago, BTC showed a strong downward move that brought the price into the support zone between 82200 and 80900 points. This area acted as a major demand zone, and after several retests, the price formed a solid base. From this support, BTC made a sharp bullish impulse, breaking through local resistance and heading toward the descending trend line. Eventually, the price reached the key resistance zone and tested the trend line, but failed to break through it. After that, BTC started to decline again and returned to the support zone around the 82200 level, where it is currently consolidating. At the moment, the price is trading near the lower boundary of the support zone. The strong reaction from this zone in the past and the overall price structure suggest that bulls are still active. Given the previous impulse move, the bounce from the support, and the clear target structure, I expect BTCUSDT to rise from the current level toward my goal at 87500 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Gold may break support level and continue to decline nextHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The price started to grow from the buyer zone between 2885–2905 points, forming a clean bullish impulse and entering a broadening wedge structure. During the uptrend, Gold made several rebounds from the support line and broke above the current support level at 3070, which later became a key point in the price structure. After reaching the resistance line of the wedge, the price turned around and began a downward correction. The decline brought it back into the support area between 3087–3070 points, but this zone has already failed to hold the momentum. Currently, XAU is trading below the upper boundary of the support area and showing clear signs of weakness. The breakout to the downside from the wedge structure has already taken place, and the price is starting to form a local pullback. I expect this pullback to be short-lived, followed by a continuation of the downward movement. My target for this move is the 2990 level, which aligns with the support line of the broadening wedge and serves as the next strong reaction zone. Given the failed rebound from resistance, the breakdown of the support area, and the structure of the broadening wedge, I remain bearish and expect Gold to continue declining toward TP 1 — 2990 level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
GOLD BREAKS SHARPLY — BUT THE MOVE WAS WRITTEN IN THE STRUCTURE🟡 GOLD BREAKS SHARPLY — BUT THE MOVE WAS WRITTEN IN THE STRUCTURE
A steep drop in gold just rattled the markets — but if you’ve been following the macro and technical setup closely, this was not only expected, but anticipated.
From the first week of April, we’ve been tracking signals of potential exhaustion in XAUUSD:
🕯️ Candlestick wicks on higher timeframes
📈 Overextended structure
🧠 Macro divergence
Now, all signs have converged — and we’re finally seeing the correction play out.
🔍 Why This Isn’t Just About Gold
What we’re seeing is a broader shift in global market sentiment:
U.S., European, and Asian equities are all under pressure
Crypto has stagnated with little to no fresh capital inflow
Gold — after months of aggressive buying — is now facing wave after wave of profit-taking
This is classic risk-off behaviour.
Investors are choosing cash, sitting tight, and waiting for clarity — not only in the charts but in the headlines too.
📉 DXY Building a Case for Recovery
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been heavily sold in recent months — but is now holding at a multi-year structural support zone that’s been tested multiple times since 2021.
With Trump returning to the spotlight and triggering a fresh round of global tariff negotiations, the USD is regaining narrative strength.
Trump’s stance has already prompted discussions among major economies, putting the U.S. in a dominant position — and the market is beginning to price that in.
🤔 What’s Holding the Fed Back?
Despite rising trade tensions, the Federal Reserve has remained cautious — choosing not to act until the dust settles from geopolitical and policy developments.
This creates a window of opportunity:
If the Fed holds rates while global central banks soften
And if the USD holds this major support
→ We could see strong dollar flows return in Q2.
🔮 Gold Outlook – Where Next?
In the short term:
Expect continued volatility
Potential for gold to slide further toward 308x – 305x range
Any bounce is likely to be technical rather than fundamental
In the medium term:
Once political noise fades, gold may find support again
Especially if inflation expectations persist or the Fed pivots dovish later in Q2
💡 Takeaways for UK Traders
✅ Don't trade the news — trade the reaction
✅ Macro structure matters more than the daily headlines
✅ Capital preservation beats chasing euphoria
We’re not guessing.
We’re reading the story and planning with structure.
XAUUSD-GOLD can still break upward ? read captionGold (XAU/USD) has just soared to a new all-time high, reflecting heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties. The surge comes as global markets react to inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and shifting monetary policies, further strengthening gold’s position as a premier store of value. With central banks increasing their reserves and investors seeking stability, the precious metal continues to shine, marking a historic moment in the financial markets.
USD/JPY - Bearish breakdown signals further downside potential!The USD/JPY pair has been experiencing a clear daily downtrend, characterized by a bearish market structure and strong downward momentum. Sellers have remained in control, pushing prices lower as the pair continues to respect the prevailing bearish trend. With each failed attempt at recovery, the market structure reinforces the dominance of sellers, signaling that the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
Despite this overall downtrend, the 4-hour timeframe recently exhibited a rising channel, where price action formed higher highs and higher lows, suggesting a temporary bullish retracement within the larger bearish structure. However, this channel has now been broken, signaling a potential shift back toward the primary trend. A break of this nature often suggests that the bullish correction has exhausted its strength, and sellers are regaining control to push the price lower once again.
Following the breakdown of this rising channel, the price has failed to reclaim previous highs, instead forming a lower high—a strong indication that bearish pressure is resuming. Given this development, there is a significant possibility that USD/JPY could retrace toward key technical levels, such as the Golden Pocket (between the 0.618 and 0.65 Fibonacci retracement levels) or even the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) around 145.00.
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USD/JPY(20250404)Today's AnalysisToday's long and short boundaries:
146.84
Support and resistance levels
150.91
149.39
148.40
145.27
144.28
142.76
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 146.84, consider buying, the first target price is 148.40
If the price breaks through 145.27, consider selling, the first target price is 144.28
Bitcoin may continue grow inside upward channel to seller zoneHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. Looking at the chart, we can observe how Bitcoin corrected down to the support level, which also aligned with the buyer zone. From there, the price started to rise. It didn’t take long for BTC to reach the resistance level, which matched up with the seller zone. After breaking through that level, the price began consolidating within a range. Throughout this range, Bitcoin tested the upper boundary several times, but on the last attempt, it reversed and began to decline. The drop continued until it broke through the 86500 level, effectively exiting the range and pushing lower toward the next support. Once the price reached that area, it broke below the level and even dipped under the buyer zone, but quickly reversed and started climbing within an ascending channel. Inside this channel, BTC pushed up to the 83500 level, broke through it again, and maintained bullish momentum. At the moment, Bitcoin is trading within the channel, and I anticipate a potential correction back to the lower boundary of the channel, followed by continued growth toward the seller zone and a break of the resistance. For this scenario, my target is set at 87000 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Euro will rise a little more and then make correction to 1.0950Hello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Earlier, the price started to grow from the lower region near 1.0730, where it bounced off the buyer zone between 1.0690–1.0730 points and entered a strong upward movement. This impulse helped Euro break through previous resistances and approach the upper boundary of the support area, which lies between 1.0950–1.0990 points. After reaching a local high, the price formed a pennant pattern, consolidating within narrowing trend lines while respecting both the support and resistance structure. During this phase, the pair remained stable, building pressure before making the next move. Recently, EUR made a strong breakout to the upside, exiting the pennant and continuing its bullish rally. The price surged rapidly and now trades above the current support level at 1.0950, reaching fresh highs in this local trend. I expect the price to reverse soon from the current overbought region and begin a decline toward the support area, which now acts as a potential pullback zone. My target for this corrective movement is the 1.0950 level, which aligns perfectly with the current support level and the upper boundary of the support zone. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀