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Fundamental Market Analysis for October 14, 2024 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is unable to capitalize on a modest rise in the Asian session or find support above 149.000 and is pulling back a few pips from the highest level since August 16 reached on Monday. Prices are dipping below 148.500, or a fresh daily low in the last hour, and for the moment appear to have broken the dollar's three-day winning streak, although the fundamental backdrop warrants caution from bearish traders. Japan's Deputy Finance Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura said that the government will keep an eye on currency movements, including speculative moves, fueling speculation of possible intervention. This, in turn, provides some support for the Japanese Yen (JPY) and attracts sellers to the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the decreasing chances of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 2024 and a more aggressive easing policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) should continue to serve as a tailwind for the currency pair. Japan's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stunned markets last week by stating that the economy is not ready for further rate hikes. In addition, political uncertainty ahead of the October 27 general election may keep JPY bulls on the sidelines. Meanwhile, good US jobs data for the month released on Friday led investors to further reduce bets on a massive Fed rate cut in November. This helped the US Dollar (USD) maintain its recent strong rise to a seven-week high and should serve as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. This in turn suggests that any subsequent decline could still be seen as a buying opportunity, so it is prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the uptrend from a week ago has exhausted itself. As for further developments, there are no major economic data releases on Monday that could influence the market. Nevertheless, speeches by influential FOMC members may have an impact on the USD later in the North American session. In addition, geopolitical events should give a short-term impetus to the USD/JPY pair. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Sell GBP/USD Triangle Breakout The GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.3055 Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.2988 2nd Support – 1.2960 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_FOREX_TRADING
7
Euraud likely can see more downsideHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Overall a bearish chart on the daily, now with the rejection as last R zone on daily, likely to see more downside on EA. Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
EURUSD Daily previewFX:EURUSD Here are the key levels from the perspective of the daily chart for the next week on EURUSD, which are important for me to trade, and at these levels I monitor Price Action and orderflow to confirm a market turn at the indicated SR levels or a breakout and continuation of the trend. If you want a more specific description or an explanation of my levels on the chart, please ask in the comments if you don't understand something and thanks for follow me :) If you want more views on Forex, or other markets, or other time frames, please request it in the comments, until Sunday evening you will have my view of that market and its outlook for the next week here for free Milan
by ypkiss12
Uber (UBER): What a ride!Uber (UBER): NYSE:UBER We've recently added Uber to our portfolio, noting its astonishing 400% rise from the COVID-19 low of $13.71. This surge is significant, and we anticipate that in the current wave 3 we're experiencing, the price could reach between $101 and $201. The precise target seems to lean towards the $101 mark, aligning with the 161.8% extension level. Currently, the high is at $81.86. We expect a pullback in the coming days and weeks to between $59.40 and $52.46, corresponding to the 38.2% to 50% retracement levels. There's a possibility of forming an Expanded Flat leading to wave 4, a pattern observed in waves 1 and 2, suggesting a potential deviation from the anticipated zigzag or other formations. Thus, surpassing the $81.86 mark would not be incorrect, provided it does not exceed the 138% threshold. Following this wave 4, we foresee the completion of wave 3 at a minimum of $101. A limit order will be placed at the first sign of weakness.
NYSE:UBERLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
1
HelenP. I Bitcoin will small correct and then rise to trend lineHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. Some days ago, the price reached the trend line and at once rebounded and made a strong impulse down to the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone. BTC some time traded inside this area and then dropped to the support level, breaking the 63600 level. Then price some time traded near the support level, and later declined to the support area, after which turned around and started to grow to the resistance level. In a short time, BTC rose to the 63600 level and even rose to the trend line, but then at once turned around and dropped back to the support level, making a fake breakout of the 63600 level. After this movement, the price turned around and started to grow, and now I expect that BTCUSDT will make small correction to the support level. Then it can turn around and start to move up to the trend line, therefore I set my goal at 63000 points, which coincided with this line. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Long
by FirstNameHelen
8
Gold can reach resistance line of channel and then start to fallHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price bounced from the support level and started to grow near the support line to the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone. Soon, the price broke the 2665 level and rose a little higher, but soon turned around and started to decline inside the downward channel, where it broke the support line with the 2665 level again. Gold dropped to the support line of the channel and then made impulse up to the resistance level and then continued to fall. Also later, the price reached the resistance level again, after which rebounded and dropped to the support line of the downward channel, breaking the 2625 support level, which coincided with the buyer zone. But a not long time ago it turned around and bounced up to this level, broke it again, and continued to move up. At the moment, Gold trades almost near the resistance line of the channel, so, I expect that it can reach the resistance line and then start to decline. Also, I think the price can break the support level and continue to fall, therefore I set my TP at 2615 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by LegionQ8
5
EURO - Price can grow to resistance area and then continue fallHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Some days ago price fell to resistance area, but soon broke $1.1005 resistance level and entered to flat. In flat, price in a short time rose to $1.1175 level, which coincided with one more resistance area. Also, EUR entered to this area, but soon turned around and made correction movement to $1.1005 level. Then price made upward impulse resistance area, which coincided with top part of flat, but soon started to decline. Euro made fake breakout of $1.1175 level and fell near resistance line, exiting from flat and breaking $1.1005 level too. In my mind, price can grow to resistance area and then it bounce down to $1.0850 If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Short
by WalterMoon
5
US Interest Rates: Impact on Global Markets and StrategiesUS interest rates are a cornerstone of the global financial system, wielding significant influence over markets worldwide. Set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), these rates dictate the cost of borrowing, the return on savings, and overall liquidity in the economy. However, the impact of US interest rates goes far beyond American borders, affecting currency pairs, stock markets, and global investment strategies. This article explores how changes in US interest rates shape global markets, including their effect on currencies like EUR/USD and USD/JPY, stock prices, and the strategies investors can adopt to navigate rate hikes and cuts. The Role of US Interest Rates in Global Markets US interest rates, specifically the federal funds rate, are a crucial tool for managing the US economy, but they also play a critical role in global financial stability. When the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, it signals shifts in economic conditions, such as inflation control or economic stimulation, to investors and central banks worldwide. Effective federal funds rate - Bank of New York The influence of US interest rates extends beyond domestic policy. A higher US interest rate often attracts global capital, strengthening the US dollar as investors seek better returns. This shift in investment flows impacts foreign currencies, stock markets, and global economic growth, making US monetary policy a key factor in global financial strategies. For example, a rise in US interest rates can strengthen the dollar and increase borrowing costs for emerging markets holding dollar-denominated debt. On the other hand, lower US interest rates can boost global liquidity, prompting investment in riskier assets like foreign equities or bonds. As such, US interest rates serve as a global benchmark, shaping monetary policy decisions and influencing investment strategies worldwide. Inflation and US Interest Rates Inflation is a central consideration in the Fed’s interest rate decisions. When inflation rises, the Fed typically raises interest rates to cool the economy by making borrowing more expensive, which in turn curbs consumer spending and business investment. Conversely, when inflation is low or the economy is struggling, the Fed cuts interest rates to encourage borrowing, boost spending, and stimulate economic growth. The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) dropped during the coronavirus pandemic despite the Fed raising interest rates. However, the relationship between inflation and interest rates is a balancing act. If rates are cut too much or inflation rises while rates remain low, purchasing power can be eroded, causing instability in financial markets. In the global context, rising inflation in the US can weaken the dollar, affecting currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY, while inflation-related volatility in commodities like oil and gold can ripple across global markets. For global investors, tracking US inflation trends and the Fed’s response is crucial for understanding potential shifts in exchange rates and market stability. Impact on Currency Pairs US interest rates have a direct impact on the US dollar’s value relative to other major currencies. When the Fed raises interest rates, the US dollar usually strengthens because higher rates offer better returns on dollar-denominated investments. This increase in demand for the dollar causes currency pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY to move in favor of the dollar, making these currencies weaker relative to the USD. On the flip side, when the Fed lowers interest rates, the dollar typically weakens as investors look for higher returns in other currencies. As a result, other currencies gain strength relative to the USD, leading to significant shifts in global currency markets. Moreover, interest rate differentials—the gap between interest rates in different countries—create opportunities for strategies like the carry trade, where investors borrow in a currency with low interest rates (such as the Japanese yen) and invest in a currency offering higher yields (like the US dollar). These strategies add further volatility to currency markets, especially when central banks adjust their policies unexpectedly. Impact on Global Stock Markets US interest rates have a profound influence on global stock markets. When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, yields on US Treasury bonds increase, making them more attractive to investors seeking safer returns. This can lead to a shift away from equities, especially in riskier markets like emerging economies, and into bonds, causing stock prices to fall. US Government Bonds 5 Years US Government Bonds 2 Years United State Interest Rate Higher interest rates can also hurt sectors that are sensitive to borrowing costs, such as technology and consumer discretionary, which rely heavily on debt to finance growth. In contrast, financial stocks, particularly banks, often benefit from rising interest rates as they can charge more for loans, improving their profitability. Conversely, when the Fed cuts interest rates, borrowing costs decrease, which can lead to a rally in stock markets. Sectors like technology and consumer discretionary tend to perform well in a low-interest-rate environment, as companies find it cheaper to borrow and expand. At the same time, dividend-paying stocks and real estate investment trusts (REITs) become more attractive as investors seek better returns than those offered by bonds. Possible Market Reactions to a Fed Rate Cut A Federal Reserve rate cut can trigger several reactions across global markets: --Stock Market Rally: Lower interest rates reduce the cost of borrowing for businesses, potentially boosting economic activity and stock prices. Sectors like technology and consumer discretionary often benefit, while investors may also flock to dividend-paying stocks due to their relatively higher yields. --Weaker US Dollar: A rate cut usually weakens the dollar, as lower rates make the currency less attractive to investors. This depreciation can benefit exporters and companies with significant foreign revenues but can hurt importers. --Increased Inflation Risk: While rate cuts stimulate growth, they can also fuel inflation if demand exceeds supply. Investors may turn to inflation-protected assets like commodities or inflation-linked bonds. --Emerging Markets: Lower US interest rates reduce borrowing costs for emerging markets, encouraging investment in their higher-yielding assets. However, a weaker dollar can lead to currency appreciation in these markets, impacting their export competitiveness. --Bond Market Dynamics: A Fed rate cut can lead to lower yields on short-term US government bonds, pushing investors to seek better returns in long-term bonds or riskier assets. Strategies for Managing Interest Rate Volatility In periods of fluctuating interest rates, investors must adjust their strategies to protect portfolios and capitalize on new opportunities. During Interest Rate Hikes: --Shift to Bonds and Fixed-Income Assets: As interest rates rise, bonds, particularly short-term ones, offer higher yields, making them an attractive addition to portfolios. --Focus on Financial Stocks: Banks and financial institutions benefit from higher rates, as they can charge more for loans, increasing their profits. --Reduce Exposure to High-Growth Stocks: High-growth sectors, like technology, are more sensitive to rising borrowing costs and may underperform during rate hikes. During Interest Rate Cuts: --Increase Equity Exposure: Rate cuts often lead to stock market rallies, particularly in growth-oriented sectors like technology. Increasing equity exposure during rate cuts can help capture gains. --Look for Dividend-Paying Stocks: In a low-rate environment, dividend-paying stocks become more attractive as investors seek yield. --Consider Real Estate Investments: Lower rates reduce borrowing costs, making real estate and REITs more appealing as an investment. Managing Volatility in Your Portfolio To navigate the volatility caused by interest rate changes, diversification is essential. A well-diversified portfolio, spanning stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies, can help mitigate the impact of rate fluctuations on overall returns. Currency hedging is another key tool for managing volatility. When US interest rates rise, the dollar strengthens, potentially eroding the value of foreign-denominated investments. Hedging strategies using currency futures or options can protect against adverse currency movements. Lastly, a focus on defensive stocks—such as utilities and consumer staples—can provide stability in uncertain times. These companies tend to have stable earnings and are less affected by interest rate changes. Conclusion US interest rates wield significant influence over global markets, affecting everything from currency pairs to stock prices. Investors must stay informed about the Fed's actions and adapt their strategies to reflect the current interest rate environment. By incorporating risk management tools like diversification, currency hedging, and a focus on defensive stocks, investors can better protect their portfolios and capitalize on opportunities that arise from interest rate fluctuations.
TVC:DXYEducation
by FOREXN1
3
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 11, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair is unable to capitalize on a modest rebound from the 1.30200 area or one-month low and has been fluctuating in a narrow range during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices are currently hanging around the mid-1.30000 area, unchanged for the day, and seem vulnerable to a continuation of the recent corrective decline from the highest level since March 2022 reached last month. US initial jobless claims data released on Thursday pointed to signs of weakness in the US labor market and suggested that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to cut interest rates. This kept the US Dollar (USD) on the defensive below its highest level since mid-August and provided some support for the GBP/USD pair. Nevertheless, investors seem to have already fully appreciated the possibility of more aggressive Fed policy easing. These expectations were confirmed by the minutes of the September FOMC meeting and stronger than expected US consumer inflation data. In addition, persistent geopolitical risks associated with ongoing conflicts in the Middle East serve as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar and limit GBP/USD growth. From the latest developments: the Israeli army claimed to have killed the top commander of the Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad in the Nur Shams refugee camp in the occupied West Bank. This, as well as market confidence that the Bank of England (BoE) may be about to accelerate its rate cut cycle, could continue to undermine the British Pound and keep the currency pair under control. Market participants are now awaiting the release of UK macroeconomic data, including monthly GDP, to provide some momentum. However, the focus will remain on the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which will be released later in the North American session. In addition, on the economic front, the US will release preliminary data on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. This data, along with the speeches of influential FOMC members, will stimulate demand for the US dollar and allow traders to take advantage of short-term opportunities in the GBP/USD pair on the last day of the week. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Sell GBP/USD Bearish ChannelThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.3060, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.2985 2nd Support – 1.2953 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.3100. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_FOREX_TRADING
14
Sell EUR/AUD Triangle BreakoutThe EUR/AUD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.6280 Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.6192 2nd Support – 1.6152 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.6330. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_FOREX_TRADING
10
Blackrock(BLK): Targeting $1050-$1250 After Strong EarningsThis week, BlackRock will release its third-quarter earnings report, and there’s a lot of optimism in the air. Morgan Stanley expects BlackRock to beat analyst expectations, forecasting stronger-than-expected net flows. According to Morgan Stanley, net flows will likely accelerate 8.3% year-over-year on an organic basis, with their forecast being 420 basis points ahead of the consensus. They also predict a 5.7% organic growth rate for long-term inflows, marking a sequential acceleration. BlackRock is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Friday. From a technical analysis standpoint, we anticipate more upside but with some limitations. We expect the intra-wave structure of wave ((iii)) to land between $1050 and $1350, though the more likely range is $1050-$1250. After spotting potential weakness in this range, we’ll be looking for an opportunity to enter on wave ((iv)), and we’ll send out limit orders when the time comes. As for the overarching wave (1), we expect a maximum of $1500 before a larger correction occurs. Stay tuned as we monitor this carefully and share the next steps.
NYSE:BLKLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Sell EURUSD Bearish ChannelThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0986, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.0935 2nd Support – 1.0909 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.1005. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_FOREX_TRADING
24
Copper Pulls Back as China Optimism FadesCopper extended the August rebound into autumn and reached three-month highs, helped by the Fed’s jumbo rate cut and massive stimulus from Chinese authorities aiming to prop the economy and the property sector. However the measures do little to address the structural problems and the real estate market is unlikely to return to its former glory, while the lack of follow through on the fiscal front this week caused prior optimism to subside. Furthermore, the Fed has struck a more cautious approach towards further easing and Friday’s strong jobs report supported the reserved commentary. Markets have now priced out previous aggressive bets for 75 bps of cuts this year, aligning with the Fed’s 50 bps projections. Copper pulls back as a result, threatening the EMA200 (black line) and the 50% Fibonacci of the recent recovery. A breach would pause the upside bias, send the non-ferrous metal into the daily Ichimoku Cloud and expose it to the ascending trend line from the August lows. Deeper correction however does not look easy under the current technical and fundamental backdrop. There are still hopes for additional Chinese stimulus (potentially within the weekend), while prospects of US soft-landing and easier monetary policies in major economies can support higher prices. So do the AI boom and the green energy transition. Copper tries to defend the EMA200 that maintains its recovery momentum. This will allow it to push again towards 4.791, but we are cautious around further strength at this stage. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:COPPERLong
by FXCM
Markets collapse: investors flee China!The Chinese stock market is experiencing a sharp decline following a strong rally in recent weeks. On October 8, the Hang Seng Index (#HSI on FreshForex) plummeted by 9.56%, reaching 20,893 points. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong, dropped even further — by 10.9%. The CSI 300 Index of mainland China, which started the day with an 11% gain, ended with a nearly 8% loss. The main reason for the drop is growing investor dissatisfaction with the lack of new economic stimulus measures from the Chinese government. Expectations were high, especially after the National Development and Reform Commission's press conference, where economic support was promised but no concrete actions were provided. This has heightened uncertainty in the market. What has been done previously: - In late September, the Chinese government announced plans to strengthen economic stimulus, promising fiscal injections and support for the real estate sector. - The People's Bank of China lowered reserve requirements for banks, freeing up 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) for the market. - There are plans to lower mortgage rates and the down payment for second-home purchases to a record low of 15%. Bottom line: The market is waiting for action. Given the history of sharp declines in the Chinese market, such as in 2015 when the CSI 300 Index lost 40% in two months, the Chinese government cannot afford a similar outcome and may direct efforts to strengthen investor confidence. Since mid-September, #HSI has experienced a steady bullish trend, and our analysts believe these trends could repeat.
HSI:HSILong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004